高盛：中国汽车行业预测

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STOCK VALUATION SUMMARY
Ticker 600104.SS 000625.SZ 0489.HK 200625.SZ 0175.HK 000800.SZ 1211.HK Company name SAIC Motor Chongqing Changan Auto (A) Dongfeng Motor Chongqing Changan Auto (B) Geely Automobile Holdings FAW Car BYD Company Currency Rating RMB Buy* RMB Buy HKD Neutral HKD Neutral HKD Neutral RMB Neutral HKD Sell* 14-May 12-month Potential Close TP upside/downside 17.41 20.90 20% 10.54 11.65 11% 9.99 10.45 5% 5.85 6.09 4% 3.11 3.00 -4% 17.69 16.08 -9% 65.25 48.05 -26%
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Global Investment Research
May 19, 2010
China: Automobiles
Table of contents
Executive summary Industry analysis: The six trends of China's passenger car market Industry analysis: China auto policies overview Industry analysis: GS Auto Scorecard for China Company valuation SAIC Motor (600104.SS, Buy, on CL): Strong growth underappreciated BYD Company (1211.HK, Sell, on CL): Growth slowing, valuation rich Chongqing Changan Auto (A) (000625.SZ, Buy): Buy on attractive valuation Chongqing Changan Auto (B) (200625.SZ, Neutral): Valuation fair FAW Car (000800.SZ, Neutral): To grow beyond Mazda's platform Dongfeng Motor (0489.HK, Neutral): Capacity constraints and too few new models Geely Automobile Holdings (0175.HK, Neutral): Can product leadership lead to sales up? 3 6 20 28 44 47 49 55 58 61 63 65
The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of May 14, 2010.
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
2
May 19, 2010
China: Automobiles
Risks (1) Slowdown in market growth; (2) price erosion due to capacity increases; and (3) commodity price surge.
Yipeng Yang +86(10)6627-3189 yቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱpeng.yang@ Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Rajeev Das +81(3)6437-9935 rajeev.das@ Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification, see the end of the text. Other important disclosures follow the Reg AC certification, or go to /research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Source: Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.
Catalyst
New policies to boost further market growth; more new (and upgraded) models to be launched by local firms; constant news flow on industry consolidation.
Executive summary
In this report we highlight six trends within China's auto industry and four auto policy themes. We identify the long-term winners in the industry by evaluating each company in accordance with the GS scorecard. The exercise revealed that SAIC and BYD are the industry leaders, although no one company excels in all criteria. Our best ideas are: (1) SAIC – we initiate coverage on SAIC with a Buy rating (and add it to our Conviction Buy List) given that it offers 20% upside potential. Its strong product portfolio, well-balanced JV and local brand business, and rapid EPS growth (27% between 2009 and 2012E) are underappreciated by the market, in our view. (2) BYD – we initiate coverage on BYD with a Sell rating (and add it to our Conviction Sell List) as it offers 26% downside potential. We expect BYD's car sales volume growth to slowdown as the company expands into the higher-priced segments of the market. The EV/Li-ion battery market share may not exceed 20% over the long run due to a dependence on government subsidies and a vertical integration business model. (3) Changan (A) – we initiate coverage on Changan (A) with a Buy rating as it offers 11% upside potential, as a result of its attractive valuation.
May 19, 2010
China: Automobiles
China Autos: Initiate coverage on SAIC (Buy, CL), Changan (A) (Buy), and BYD (Sell, CL)
Industry context
We estimate that China's car market will maintain double-digit growth over the next 3 years, despite the government phasing out its stimulus package. By 2020E we estimate that China's light vehicle market will total 30mn units per year, i.e., 28% of global demand