印度尼西亚的基础设施投资机会 Infrastructure Investment Opportunity

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Indonesia Macroeconomy
• After the turbulence in 2008, the country's economy was relatively stable in 2009. The growth rate touched 4.5% in 2009, surpassing the target of the 2009 state budget of 4.3%, and was also higher than the projection of several international organizations’. • GDP per capita exceeds US$2,400 and is expected to rise up to 3.4% in 2010. • With the 2009 GDP of US$500 billion, Indonesia is a member of G-20 whose PPP is in the world’s top 20. • The country's inflation in 2009 was 2.78% or the lowest in the past decade.
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Fiscal, Monetary, and Investment Performance
• In 2009, the country’s stock exchange performance obtained a positive trend. At the closing of 30 December 2009, the index had risen by 87% compared to 2008. This number is the second highest in Asia Pacific, below Shenzhen Stock Exchange. • Political stability: the President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono returned to power with 60% of the vote, laying a solid foundation for political and social stability. • Strengthened purchasing power: BI rate stayed at 6.5%, while inflation reached 2.78% (lowest in a decade).
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INFRASTRUCTURE DEMAND & SUPPLY
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Electricity Demand
• Coupled with the growth in economy, Indonesia will need more than 320 TWh of electricity by the end of 2018 or rising on an average of 8.98% annually, with 77% of the amount contributed from JAMALI (Jawa Madura Bali) system • During 2009-2018, electricity demand in the JAMALI system rise from 108 TWh to 251 TWh with a CAGR of 9.5%, while increasing faster outside the JAMALI system from 31 TWh to 74 TWh or a CAGR of 10.3%. • Because the sheer size of demand, new investment is needed for this field. A project of 10,000 MW has been established to answer this need. This kind of project needs US$ 1 – 1.2 million of investment per MW. The first phase of this project at Labuan has been completed. The 2nd phase is being planned, focusing on the diversification of energy sources and on the balance of electricity used for household and industry consumption.
Geothermal
LNG
Fossil Fuel
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Air Travel
• With total 80mn passenger/year (2008), and less than 6% of total Indonesia population took air travel, Indonesia is the most promising country in the region • With economic growth in the future, this could pass the increase of Indonesia passenger traffic to higher than 9% per year • Three biggest airports in Indonesia have experienced over-capacity. At Jakarta’s Soekarno-Hatta airport, the overcapacity reached 68%, while in Bali’s Ngurah Rai airport, the number touched the staggering 300%. • Airport infrastructure will need to grow for more than 32% per year, by considering the increasing amount of the passengers • This will be even higher with the openning chanel of new airlines operations as an impact to the ASEAN open sky policy
Rp/US$ 12500 Rp/US$ JCI 多项式 (Rp/US$) 多项式 (JCI) JCI 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
12000
11500 11000 10500 10000 9500 9000 8500 8000
3
2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2007 0.6 0.3 0.1 2008 Foreign Debt/GDP (%) 2009 Deficit/GDP (%) 2010* 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 2.5
World and Indonesia GDP Growth Rate
6.1 4.5 3.9 GDP Growth Rate (%) World GDP Growth Rate (%) 5.5
2008
2009
-0.8
US -3.9 -2.5
UK -5.5 -4.8
Japan -6.4 -5.3
2010F
3,000 17.1 2,500 2,271 1,937 1,658 11.03 10 8 6.6 6.59 5 6 GDP Growth Rate (%) GDP/Capita (US$) 18 16
2,456
2,539
14
12
2,000
1,500
1,312 6.4
1,000
4
500 2.78 2 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 0 Inflation (%)
Republic of Indonesia
Presented at : 2nd Joint Task Force Meeting ROI - ROK
Bambang Susantono, Ph.D. Vice Minister for Ministry of Transportation Deputy Minister for Infrastructure and Regional Development, CMEA
10 Perubahan PDB riil (yoy) 5 0 -5 -10 -15 China Q2 2009 7.9 8.7 India 6.1 5.6 Indone Vietna Philippi Austral South South Brazil sia m nes ia Korea Africa 4 4.5 4.5 4.2 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.5 -1.2 -0.4 -2.5 -1.6 -2.8 -2.2 Malays Argenti Thailan ia na d -3.9 -3 2 -3.5 -4.9 -4.3 Singap Mexico Russia ore -3.5 -6 -10.3 -6.8 -10.9 -9 4 31/25/2013
Global Macroeconomy
• With the GDP of US$500 billion and total inhabitants of 240 million, Indonesia is South 7 East Asia’s largest economy, owning 1/3 of 6 ASEAN’s total GDP and 2/5 ASEAN’s population.5
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Fiscal, Monetary, and Investment Performance
•The size of Indonesia’s economy has been of interest to investors. • Indonesia expects to reach investment grade within one or two year. Current sovereign credit rating stands at BB (S&P) and BB+ (Fitch). •Strong stability was recorded in the rupiah exchange rate. Toward the end of 2009, the rupiah gained to reach the level of 9,400 per dollar. Rupiah strengthening of 15.4% was highest in Asia in 2009. •Lowered Foreign Debt against GDP ratio, large foreign exchange reserves (US$66 billion), healthy state budget and strong economic fundamentals have directed the country’s optimistic economic outlook.
133,107
Consumption
127,370
Production
120,244
113,030
50,000
100,000 (GWh)
150,000
200,000
Projection for Electricity Production (Gwh)
100,000
50,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 PS 2012 Hydro 2013 Coal 2014 2015 2016 Gas 2017 2018
3 • In 2009, Indonesia’s economic growth rate 2 slowed at a significantly lower rate than the slowdown of the world’s average. It decreased 1 0 by 30%, compared to the world’s economic -1 growth that declined by 160%. -2
Electricity Production (Gwh)
2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 0
(GWh)
400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 117,815 121,247 112,609 107,032 100,097 90,441 150,447 142,440