若离开阿里巴巴 雅虎价值几何

若离开阿里巴巴雅虎价值几何

Yahoo is dressed like a high-growth company. But it may soon have to revert to humbler garb.

雅虎(Yahoo)打扮得像一家高增长公司。但它可能很快就得现出原形。

Much of the Internet company's value rests on its 24% stake in Alibaba. Investors seeking exposure to the unlisted Chinese e-commerce juggernaut have flocked to Yahoo's shares. These now sport a tech-like multiple of 25.5 times 2014 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, about double that of Google.

这家互联网公司的价值有很大一部分在于其所持24%的阿里巴巴股份。想要投资于这家未上市中国电子商务巨头的投资者纷纷买进雅虎投票。依据雅虎2014年

预期息税折旧摊销前收益计算的市盈率目前为25.5倍，与科技公司估值相当，

差不多是谷歌(Google)的两倍。

But when Alibaba completes its initial public offering, expected next year, investors must ask whether Yahoo still is worth owning without its glitzy wardrobe.

但阿里巴巴预计明年将完成首次公开募股(IPO)，届时投资者肯定会问，在雅虎

失去了阿里巴巴股份这一眩目的行头之后，它是否仍然值得拥有。

The decline of the Internet portal as the most efficient way to reach the greatest number of users and the rise of programmatic ad buying, which is site-agnostic, have created permanent challenges for Yahoo's display advertising business, according to Pivotal Research. Meanwhile, Yahoo's share of search, as tracked by comScore, continues to deteriorate, dropping to 11.2% in November from 12.1% a year earlier.

据市场研究机构Pivotal Research，门户网站曾经是影响最大用户群体的最有

效途径，但这种途径出现衰落，不论站点的程序化广告购买的兴起给雅虎的展示广告业务带来了永久的挑战。与此同时，comScore跟踪的雅虎在搜索市场占据

的份额持续下降，11月降至11.2%，上年同期为12.1%。

Since Marissa Mayer joined Yahoo as chief executive in July 2012 she has pursued various strategies aimed at driving traffic to the site and boosting its advertising business.

梅耶尔(Marissa Mayer)自2012年7月加入雅虎任首席执行长以来，实施了众多旨在提高网站访问量、提振广告业务的策略。

Some of these efforts appear to have paid off. In September, Yahoo's global traffic, including desktop and mobile, returned to levels unseen since 2011, reversing two years of declines. And traffic to Yahoo's sites from desktop users bested Google's in August, September and October, ranking No. 1 on comScore's list of Top 50 properties. Mobile growth also has been

significant, with more than 400 million monthly active users, up from 200 million at the end of 2012.

其中一些举措似乎产生了效果。今年9月，雅虎包括电脑和移动设备的全球访问量恢复到2011年以来的最高水平，扭转了延续两年的衰落势头。同时，雅虎网

站来自电脑用户的访问量在今年8月、9月和10月超过谷歌，在comScore的网站访问量50强排行榜上排名第一。移动访问量的增长也十分可观，月度活跃用

户超过4亿，较2012年底的2亿大大增长。

Yet that isn't doing much for Yahoo's revenue. In the third quarter, display revenue fell 7%, year on year, to $470 million as search revenue dropped 8% to $435 million. Only 'other revenue,' which includes royalties from Alibaba, rose 5% to $234 million. For the nine months ended Sept. 30, display and search revenue were down 10% and 9%, respectively, with other revenue up 8%.

然而这种情况对于雅虎的营收并没有起到太大作用。雅虎第三季度展示广告收入同比下降7%，至4.7亿美元，搜索业务收入下降8%，至4.35亿美元。只有包括阿里巴巴支付的许可费用在内的"其他收入"增加5%，至2.34亿美元。截至今年

9月30日的九个月，展示广告和搜索业务收入分别下降10%和9%，其他收入增

长8%。

Consensus estimates for 2014 suggest a slight improvement, showing display and search revenue roughly flat and up 7%, respectively. Ebitda, meanwhile, is expected to increase by a modest 3.7%. Adding more personalized user data to its Tumblr ad inventory could be one source of gains, Pivotal says. But it remains to be seen if the turnaround is real. 对2014年的一致估计显示雅虎的情况将略有好转，展示广告收入持平，搜索业

务收入增长7%。与此同时，息税折旧摊销前收益预计将小幅增长3.7%。Pivotal 说，雅虎在Tumblr广告目录中加入更为个性化的用户数据可能是一个收益来源。但好转能否真正实现还有待观察。

Analysts say Yahoo's core business should be valued at around four to six times 2014 Ebitda -- more like a print media asset. It is difficult to say where that business trades now because so much rests on Alibaba's IPO. Estimates of Alibaba's value range from $100 billion to $190 billion. To complicate calculations, Yahoo must sell 40% of its stake at the IPO, with the rest to be sold at its discretion, theoretically for more if Alibaba's stock rises.

分析师们说，雅虎的核心业务价值约为2014年息税折旧摊销前收益的四到六倍――更类似于平面媒体的估值。很难判断这块业务目前的价值，因为很大程度上将取决于阿里巴巴的IPO。阿里巴巴的估值在1,000亿美元至1,900亿美元。令计算更复杂的是，雅虎必须在IPO

之时出售其所持股份的40%，其余部分由雅虎自己决定是否出售，理论上如果阿里巴巴股价

上涨，则能以更高价格卖出。

In one scenario, UBS estimates Alibaba will list at a $100 billion valuation, which will then climb to $160 billion.

其中一种设想的情况是，瑞银(UBS)估计阿里巴巴将以1,000亿美元的估值上市，随后将攀升至1,600亿美元。