2011年9月美联储议息会议点评：扭曲操作难解长期问题

QE1
QE2


䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼
೒ 2˖ᠻ㸠 QE1 ੠ QE2 ࠡৢⱘ೑؎߽⥛੠㕢㙵䍄࢓
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ᑈᳳ
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䘧⨐ᮃᎹϮᑇഛᣛ᭄˄ে䕈˅













ᛣ೒˖ࠎ▔㒣⌢㗠ϡࠎ▔䗮㚔
㕢㘨‫ټ‬೼ϡᠽ໻䌘ѻ䋳؎㸼㾘῵ⱘ෎⸔Ϟˈᢀ催䭓ᳳ೑؎ӋḐǃय़ࠊ䭓ᳳ೑؎ᬊⲞ⥛∈ᑇˈᆘᳯ䍋ࠄབ ϟ԰⫼˖ᅲԧ㒣⌢ᮍ䴶ˈ೑؎߽⥛ᰃᏖഎ෎‫ˈ⥛߽ޚ‬㕢㘨‫ټ‬Ꮰᳯ䗮䖛ᇚ䭓ᳳ೑؎ᬊⲞ⥛㓈ᣕ೼Ԣԡˈࠎ▔ᡩ 䌘䳔∖ˈ哧ࢅᢉᢐ䌋ℒ‫ݡ‬㵡䌘⌏ࡼ˗䌘ᴀᏖഎᮍ䴶ˈ㕢㘨‫ټ‬䆩೒䗮䖛य़ԢᬊⲞ⥛᳆㒓ⱘ䭓ッˈ䰡Ԣ೑؎Ā䖛 ᑺⱘā਌ᓩ࡯ˈ๲ࡴ亢䰽䌘ѻ˄㙵心ǃ݀ৌ؎˅ⱘ਌ᓩ࡯ˈҢ㗠ࠎ▔䌘ѻӋḐⱘϞ⍼ᓩ㟈䋶ᆠᬜᑨ˗䋶ᬓ؎ ࡵᮍ䴶ˈᓊ䭓؎ࡵⱘᑇഛᣕ᳝ᳳᑊय़ԢᬊⲞ⥛ˈ᳝ࡽѢ‫ޣ‬䕏䋶ᬓ䚼ⱘⷁᳳ䖬ℒय़࡯ˈᑊ䰡Ԣ䭓ᳳ‫׳‬ℒ៤ᴀ˗ 䗮㚔∈ᑇᮍ䴶ˈϢⳈ᥹䌁ф೑؎˄QE3˅ϡৠˈ䗮䖛ߎଂⷁᳳ؎ࠌᴹĀᇍ‫ކ‬ā䌁ф䭓ᳳ؎ࠌ᠔ᡩᬒⱘ⌕ࡼᗻˈ ᳝ࡽѢ㓧㾷๲ࡴ䗮㚔य़࡯ⱘᬓㄪĀࡃ԰⫼āDŽ
2011 ᑈ 9 ᳜ 22 ᮹
ⷨお᡹ਞgᅣ㾖ⷨおgџӊ⚍䆘
2011 ᑈ 9 ᳜㕢㘨‫ټ‬䆂ᙃӮ䆂⚍䆘
ᡁ᳆᪡԰䲒㾷䭓ᳳ䯂乬
Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ᅣ㾖㒘
䇌ᓎ㢇 ⬉䆱˖010-60838756
䚂ӊ˖zhujf@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120003
߬䳪ᵫ
⬉䆱˖010-60838023 䚂ӊ˖liull@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010511080002

䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖㕢㘨‫ˈټ‬䖒ᢝᮃ㘨‫ˈټ‬Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼
೒ 8˖ׂᭈḌᖗ䗮㚔⥛ǃ䗮㚔⥛੠Ḍᖗ䗮㚔⥛ ˄%˅

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Ⳃࠡˈ⬅Ѣ㒣⌢໡㢣ফࠄ䰏⒲ǃ༅Ϯ⥛ҡ໘Ѣ催ԡˈ㕢㘨‫ټ‬䳔㽕‫⦄ܥ‬Āߎৄ᳈໮ࠎ▔āⱘᡓ䇎DŽ㗠䗮㚔 य़࡯䖳᳾㟦㓧ˈՓᕫ㕢㘨‫ټ‬೼ᅲᮑࠎ▔ⱘ㾘῵੠࡯ᑺϞফࠄĀ᥷㙬āDŽ⬅Ѣ䳔㽕‫ݐ‬乒䗮㚔੠๲䭓ⱘঠ䞡Ⳃᷛˈ 㕢㘨‫ټ‬䗝ᢽ䗮䖛ĀᴗᅰП䅵ā৥ᏖഎӴ䗦ᆑᵒⱘ䋻ᏕᬓㄪゟഎDŽԚᰃˈϔᮍ䴶ˈ㕢೑䭓ᳳ೑؎ⱘᬊⲞ⥛∈ᑇ Ꮖ㒣໘ѢԢԡ˄೒ 2˅ˈĀᡁ᳆᪡԰āⱘ䖍䰙䋵⤂᳝䰤˗঺ϔᮍ䴶ˈህϮ䲒㾕䍋㡆ǃഄѻᏖഎᣕ㓁Ԣ䗋ˈϹ䞡 ṫ䰏谷Ҏ䚼䮼ֵᖗˈQE2 㒣偠䇈ᯢˈ䗮䖛य़Ԣ䭓ᳳ߽⥛䲒ҹ᳝ᬜਃࡼ谷Ҏ䚼䮼ᡩ䌘੠⍜䌍䳔∖DŽ
ϔ㠀ᗻໄᯢ
ℸ᡹ਞᑊ䴲䩜ᇍ៪ᛣ೒䗕থ㒭៪Ўӏԩህ䗕থǃথᏗǃৃᕫࠄ៪Փ⫼ℸ᡹ਞ㗠ՓЁֵ䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌঞ݊䰘ሲᴎᵘ˄ҹϟ㒳鹵ĀЁ ֵ䆕ࠌā˅䖱ডᔧഄⱘ⊩ᕟ៪⊩㾘៪ৃ㟈ՓЁֵ䆕ࠌফࠊѢⳌ݇⊩ᕟ៪⊩㾘ⱘӏԩഄऎǃ೑ᆊ៪݊ᅗㅵ䕪ऎඳⱘ݀⇥៪ሙ⇥DŽ䰸䴲঺᳝ 㾘ᅮˈᴀ᡹ਞЁⱘ᠔᳝ᴤ᭭⠜ᴗഛሲЁֵ䆕ࠌDŽ᳾㒣Ёֵ䆕ࠌџ‫ܜ‬к䴶ᥜᴗˈϡᕫҹӏԩᮍᓣׂᬍǃথ䗕៪㗙໡ࠊᴀ᡹ਞঞ݊᠔ࣙ৿ⱘ ᴤ᭭ǃ‫ݙ‬ᆍDŽ᠔᳝Ѣℸ᡹ਞЁՓ⫼ⱘଚᷛǃ᳡ࡵᷛ䆚ঞᷛ䆄ഛЎЁֵ䆕ࠌⱘଚᷛǃ᳡ࡵᷛ䆚ঞᷛ䆄DŽ
Ёֵ䆕ࠌ߽⫼ֵᙃ䱨行๭᥻ࠊ‫ݙ‬䚼ϔϾ៪໮Ͼ乚ඳˈҹঞ䚼䮼䯈Пֵᙃ⌕ࡼDŽ᪄‫ݭ‬ᴀ᡹ਞⱘߚᵤᏜⱘ㭾䝀⬅ⷨお䚼䮼ㅵ⧚ሖ੠݀ৌ 催㑻ㅵ⧚ሖܼᴗ‫އ‬ᅮDŽߚᵤᏜⱘ㭾䝀ϡᰃ෎ѢЁֵ䆕ࠌᡩ㸠ᬊܹ㗠ᅮˈԚᰃˈߚᵤᏜⱘ㭾䝀ৃ㛑Ϣᡩ㸠ᭈԧᬊܹ᳝݇ˈ݊Ёࣙᣀᡩ㸠ǃ 䫔ଂϢѸᯧϮࡵDŽ
೼⊩ᕟ䆌ৃⱘᚙ‫މ‬ϟˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⱘϔԡ៪໮ԡ㨷џǃ催㑻㘠ਬ੠/៪ਬᎹ(ࣙᣀখϢ‫ޚ‬໛៪থ㸠ℸ᡹ਞⱘҎ)ৃ㛑(1)Ϣℸ᡹ਞ᠔ᦤࠄⱘ ӏԩ݀ৌᓎゟ៪ֱᣕ乒䯂ǃᡩ䌘䫊㸠៪䆕ࠌ᳡ࡵ݇㋏ˈ(2)Ꮖ㒣৥ℸ᡹ਞ᠔ᦤࠄⱘ݀ৌᦤկњ໻䞣ⱘᓎ䆂៪ᡩ䌘᳡ࡵDŽ೼⊩ᕟ䆌ৃⱘᚙ‫މ‬ ϟˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⱘϔԡ៪໮ԡ㨷џǃ催㑻㘠ਬ੠/៪ਬᎹৃ㛑ᢙӏℸ᡹ਞ᠔ᦤࠄⱘ݀ৌⱘ㨷џDŽ೼⊩ᕟ䆌ৃⱘᚙ‫މ‬ϟˈЁֵ䆕ࠌৃ㛑খϢ ៪ᡩ䌘ℸ᡹ਞ᠔ᦤࠄⱘ݀ৌⱘ䞥㵡Ѹᯧˈ৥᳝݇݀ৌᦤկ៪㦋প᳡ࡵˈঞ/៪ᣕ᳝݊䆕ࠌ៪ᳳᴗ៪䖯㸠䆕ࠌ៪ᳳᴗѸᯧDŽ
೒ 5˖㕢㘨‫ټ‬ᣕ᳝䋶ᬓ䚼؎ࠌⱘᳳ䰤㒧ᵘ
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ᑈҹϞ
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ᑈҹϞ
೒ 6˖㕢㘨‫ټ‬ᣕ᳝㘨䙺ᴎᵘ؎ࠌⱘᳳ䰤㒧ᵘ
˄%˅
ᑈҹϞ
᮹ҹ‫ݙ‬
໽໽
ᑈᑈ
໽ᑈ
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䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖㕢㘨‫ˈټ‬Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖㕢㘨‫ˈټ‬Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼
䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈ 9 ᳜ 22 ᮹ 2
2011 ᑈ 9 ᳜㕢㘨‫ټ‬䆂ᙃӮ䆂⚍䆘
೒ 7˖ׂᭈⱘ PCE Ḍᖗ䗮䋻㝼㚔⥛

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˄%ˈৠ↨˅ Ͼ᳜
ᴀ᡹ਞᰃᴎᆚⱘˈা᳝ᬊӊҎᠡ㛑Փ⫼DŽᴀ᡹ਞ᠔䕑ⱘֵᙃǃᴤ᭭៪ߚᵤᎹ‫݋‬াᦤկ㒭䯕ϟ԰খ㗗П⫼ˈϡᰃ៪ϡᑨ㹿㾚Ўߎଂǃ 䌁ф៪䅸䌁䆕ࠌ៪݊ᅗ䞥㵡Ꮉ‫ⱘ݋‬㽕㑺៪㽕㑺䙔䇋DŽЁֵ䆕ࠌгϡ಴ᬊӊҎᬊࠄᴀ᡹ਞ㗠㾚݊ЎЁֵ䆕ࠌⱘᅶ᠋DŽ
ᴀ᡹ਞ᠔䕑䌘᭭ⱘᴹ⑤ঞ㾖⚍ⱘߎ໘ⱚ㹿Ёֵ䆕ࠌ䅸Ўৃ䴴ˈԚЁֵ䆕ࠌϡֱ䆕݊‫⹂ޚ‬ᗻ៪ᅠᭈᗻDŽ䰸⊩ᕟ៪㾘߭㾘ᅮᖙ乏ᡓᢙⱘ 䋷ӏ໪ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌϡᇍ಴Փ⫼ℸ᡹ਞⱘᴤ᭭㗠ᓩ㟈ⱘᤳ༅䋳ӏԩ䋷ӏDŽᬊӊҎϡᑨऩ㒃ձ䴴ℸ᡹ਞ㗠পҷϾҎⱘ⣀ゟ߸ᮁDŽᴀ᡹ਞ᠔ᣛ ⱘ䆕ࠌ៪䞥㵡Ꮉ‫ⱘ݋‬ӋḐǃӋؐঞᬊܹৃ䎠ৃछDŽҹᕔⱘ㸼⦄ϡᑨ԰Ў᮹ৢ㸼⦄ⱘᰒ冫ঞᢙֱDŽᴀ᡹ਞ᠔䕑ⱘ䌘᭭ǃᛣ㾕ঞ᥼⌟ড᯴Ё ֵ䆕ࠌѢ᳔߱থᏗℸ᡹ਞ᮹ᳳᔧ᮹ⱘ߸ᮁˈৃ೼ϡথߎ䗮ⶹⱘᚙᔶϟ‫ߎخ‬᳈ᬍˈѺৃ಴Փ⫼ϡৠ‫؛‬䆒੠ᷛ‫ޚ‬ǃ䞛⫼ϡৠ㾖⚍੠ߚᵤᮍ⊩ 㗠ϢЁֵ䆕ࠌ݊ᅗϮࡵ䚼䮼៪ऩԡ᠔㒭ߎⱘᛣ㾕ϡৠ៪㗙ⳌডDŽᴀ᡹ਞϡᵘ៤谷Ҏ੼䆶ᓎ䆂ˈг≵᳝㗗㰥ࠄϾ߿ᅶ᠋⡍⅞ⱘᡩ䌘Ⳃᷛǃ 䋶ࡵ⢊‫៪މ‬䳔㽕DŽᬊӊҎᑨ㗗㰥ᴀ᡹ਞЁⱘӏԩᛣ㾕៪ᓎ䆂ᰃ৺ヺড়݊⡍ᅮ⢊‫މ‬DŽ
䆘Biblioteka Baidu˖
ড᯴˖Āᡁ᳆᪡԰āᮽ೼乘ᳳПЁ
ᴀ⃵䆂ᙃӮ䆂ীᓔࠡˈᏖഎህᔶ៤њϔ㟈乘ᳳ˖㕢㘨‫ټ‬ᇚᠻ㸠ߎଂⷁᳳ؎ࠌǃфܹ䭓ᳳ؎ࠌⱘĀᡁ᳆᪡ ԰āDŽ㕢㘨‫≵ټ‬᳝䌌✊᥼ߎ QE3ˈ㗠ᰃ䗮䖛ࠄᳳ䌘䞥‫ݡ‬ᡩ䌘੠Āपⷁф䭓āⱘᮍᓣˈ㓈ᣕ䌘ѻ䋳؎㸼㾘῵ǃ 䇗ᭈ᠔ᣕ䌘ѻⱘᳳ䰤㒧ᵘˈ䖭Ϣ៥Ӏⱘ߸ᮁⳌਏড়˄㾕ljবⳌ QE3 ৃ㛑Ј䖥NJ੠ljህϮԢ䗋៪ᇚ‫⫳ڀ‬᳈໮ ᬓㄪࠎ▔NJ˅DŽ
QE1
QE2
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼
䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈ 9 ᳜ 22 ᮹ 1
2011 ᑈ 9 ᳜㕢㘨‫ټ‬䆂ᙃӮ䆂⚍䆘
೒ 3˖㕢㘨‫ټ‬ᣕ᳝䌘ѻⱘᵘ៤


ᬓᑰ؎ࡵ˖䌘ѻᢉᢐᬃᣕ؎ࠌ˄0%6 ᬓᑰ؎ࡵ˖㘨䙺ᴎᵘ؎ࠌ ᬓᑰ؎ࡵ˖䋶ᬓ䚼؎ࠌ ᘏ䌘ѻ㾘῵
˄ⱒϛ㕢‫˅ܗ‬

џ乍˖
ᄭ〇ᄬ
⬉䆱˖010-60838015 䚂ӊ˖sunwc@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120052
ਈ⥝ゟ
⬉䆱˖010-60838230 䚂ӊ˖wuyl@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010511080003
㨷߽
⬉䆱˖010-60838405 䚂ӊ˖dongli@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010511080001
࣫Ҁᯊ䯈 9 ᳜ 22 ᮹ˈ㕢㘨‫ټ‬থᏗ䆂ᙃӮ䆂ໄᯢ˖㘨䙺݀ᓔᏖഎྨਬӮ˄FOMC˅ᇚ೼ 2012 ᑈ 6 ᳜ᑩП ࠡ䌁ф 4000 ғ㕢‫ ⱘܗ‬6 ᑈᳳ㟇 30 ᑈᳳ೑؎ˈৠᯊߎଂⳌৠ᭄䞣ⱘ 3 ᑈᳳঞ 3 ᑈᳳҹ‫ⱘݙ‬೑؎˗ৠᯊˈFOMC 䖬ᇚ㓈ᣕ؎ࡵࠄᳳ䌘䞥‫ݡ‬ᡩ䌘ᬓㄪˈᇚ᠔ᣕ᳝ⱘᴎᵘ؎ࠌ੠䌘ѻᢉᢐᬃᣕ؎ࠌ˄MBS˅ⱘࠄᳳᴀ䞥‫ݡ‬ᡩ䌘ࠄ ᴎᵘⱘ MBS ЁDŽ
೒ 1˖ᠻ㸠 QE1 ੠ QE2 ࠡৢⱘ䗮䋻㝼㚔⥛੠༅Ϯ⥛
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䗮䋻㝼㚔⥛
Ḍᖗ䗮㚔⥛
༅Ϯ⥛










䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼
೒ 4˖㕢㘨‫ټ‬ᣕ᳝䌘ѻⱘᳳ䰤㒧ᵘ ˄ⱒϛ㕢‫˅ܗ‬


䌘ѻᢉᢐᬃᣕ؎ࠌ˄0%6˅ 㘨䙺ᴎᵘ؎ࠌ 䋶ᬓ䚼؎ࠌ



᮹ҹ‫ݙ‬
໽໽
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖㕢㘨‫ˈټ‬Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼
໽ᑈ
ᑈᑈ



᳜ӑ ᳜ӑ ᳜ӑ ᳜ӑ ᳜ӑ ᳜ӑ ᳜ӑ
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖㕢㘨‫ܟˈټ‬䞠໿݄㘨‫ˈټ‬Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼
䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
2011 ᑈ 9 ᳜ 22 ᮹ 3
ߚᵤᏜໄᯢ Analyst Certification
Џ㽕䋳䋷᪄‫ݭ‬ᴀⷨお᡹ਞܼ䚼៪䚼ߚ‫ݙ‬ᆍⱘⷨおߚᵤᏜ೼ℸໄᯢ˖˄i˅ᴀⷨお᡹ਞ᠔㸼䗄ⱘӏԩ㾖⚍ഛ㊒‫ޚ‬ഄড᯴њϞ䗄↣ԡߚᵤ ᏜϾҎᇍᷛⱘ䆕ࠌ੠থ㸠Ҏⱘⳟ⊩˗˄ii˅䆹ߚᵤᏜ᠔ᕫ᡹䝀ⱘӏԩ㒘៤䚼ߚ᮴䆎ᰃ೼䖛এǃ⦄೼ঞᇚᴹഛϡӮⳈ᥹៪䯈᥹ഄϢⷨお᡹ਞ ᠔㸼䗄ⱘ‫݋‬ԧᓎ䆂៪㾖⚍Ⳍ㘨㋏DŽThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
䭓ᳳⳟˈབᵰ㕢೑㒣⌢๲䭓༅䗳ⱘሔ䴶ձᮻˈ㗠Ёᳳ䗮㚔य़࡯᳝᠔㓧੠ˈ߭㕢೑᥼ߎ᳈໻㾘῵ࠎ▔˄QE3˅ ⱘὖ⥛ᇚ๲໻ˈሞᯊ៥೑᠔䴶Јⱘ䕧ܹൟ䗮㚔亢䰽гӮ䱣П๲໻DŽ⬅Ѣ㒣⌢෎ᴀ䴶㹿ࠞᔅˈ؎ࡵџӊⱘⳌ㒻 㾺থĀ㛝‫ކ‬ᓣāᠧߏথ䖒㒣⌢ԧˈ⃻㕢೑ᆊ䋻Ꮥ᭭ᇚᣕ㓁䍄ᔅDŽথ䖒೑ᆊⱘĀᆑ䋻Ꮥā੠Āᔅ∛⥛āˈᇚӮ ๲ࡴҎ⇥Ꮥछؐⱘय़࡯DŽ
ᬜᵰ˖ᴗⲞП䅵᭭䲒㾷‫އ‬䭓ᳳ䯂乬
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