关于企业财务风险预警模型的探讨刘学香

本科生毕业论文（设计）

关于企业财务危机预警模型的探讨

摘要

随着经营全球化的发展，企业的生存和发展环境发生了很大变化，面临着很大的经营风险和财务风险。企业面临的财务风险极容易引起财务危机，从而导致企业破产。为了有效化解财务危机，必须建立适合企业的财务危机预警模型。财务预警是以财务会计信息为基础,通过设置并观察一些敏感性预警指标的变化,对企业可能或将要面临的财务危机实施的实时监控和预测警报。财务预警中的数学模型就是财务预警模型,它是指借助企业财务指标和非财务指标体系,识别企业财务状况的判别模型。财务预警模型的种类很多,常见的有以下几种: 一元判别模型、多元线性判别模型、多元逻辑回归模型、多元概率比回归模型，人工神经网络模型等。本文对这几种财务危机预警模型进行了对比分析，提出了各个模型适应的围和环境，指出了这几种模型在应用中的局限性，使得企业能够根据自身的特点选择适合自己公司财务状况的预警模型，以达到有效预测财务危机的目的。同时针对企业财务危机预警模型的演变和发展进行了讨论，并指出了在企业财务危机预警模型构建过程中指标体系的选择，以及企业财务危机预警模型在具体的应用中应该注意的问题等。

关键字：财务危机；预警模型；指标体系

Abstract

With the globalization of management, the survival environment for the enterprises’development has greatly changed, facing a great many risks on management and finance. The risks which the firms face will cause financial crisis easily, and may cause the firms go bankrupt completely. In order to avert the financial crisis effectively, it is necessary to establish a financial crisis warning model which is suited to the firms. The financial crisis warning system is a financial analysis system which is used to detect and to forecast the financial risks that the enterprises may be confronted with. The mathematical model in the financial warning system is the very financial warning model. It is a discriminant model which distinguishes the financial situation, by means of financial indicator and non-financial indicator system. There are many kinds of financial warning models, such as Univariate, Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Logit model, Probit model and the ANN and so on .The essay discussed the differences of the models and drew a conclusion about the environment which is suited to the different models .It also points the shortcomings in the process of practical using, thus the firms can choose the right model, according to the situations of themselves to predict the crisis effectively. The essay looked back to the history of the financial crisis warning model, and indicated the choosing of the index system during the process of building up the firm financial crisis warning models, and the problems of the practical using which should be paid attention to.

Key words: financial crisis;warning model;index system

目录

引言 (1)

一、企业财务危机预警模型的演变与发展 (2)

（一）国外的演变与发展 (2)

（二）国的演变与发展 (3)

二、企业财务危机预警模型的种类 (4)

（一）统计类财务危机预警模型 (4)

1. 一元判别模型 (4)

2. 多元线性判别模型 (4)

3. 多元逻辑回归模型 (5)

4. 多元概率比回归模型 (6)

（二）非统计类财务危机预警模型 (6)

（三）不同企业财务危机预警模型对比分析 (6)

三、企业财务危机预警模型构建时指标体系的选择 (8)

（一）偿债能力指标 (8)

（二）盈利能力指标 (8)

（三）营运能力指标 (8)

（四）发展能力指标 (9)

（五）现金流量指标 (9)

四、应用企业财务危机预警模型应注意的问题 (9)

参考文献 (11)

致 (12)