影响流言传播的因素

G1308 G1307 G1305 清华附中G13级

研究性学习论文影响流言传播过程的因素

小组成员：李建辉蒋楠诸子钰谢易宋和谦

吴思捷金辽廖望

研究方向：心理学、数学

指导教师：范永春

摘要

在当今社会，流言已成为了人们生活中影响决策的重要因素，许多流言的恶性传播严重危害社会秩序，给人们带来了不便，因此研究流言的传播的影响因素对抑制流言的传播与促进社会的稳定发展具有重要意义。从二十世纪开始，很多心理学家致力于流言的研究，如奥尔波特提出的流言公式，普拉萨德等人提出的流言维度等。纵观前人研究发现，研究者大多从自我感知的角度出发，缺乏系统的实验与充分的数据和理论支持。基于此，本研究小组在探究的过程中不止从社会心理学的角度去研究问题，还运用了数学建模的办法得出了流言的传播规律。我们将流言传播的广度近似为相信流言的人数占总人数的比例，以问卷的方式调查，分别控制流言的模糊性和重要性两个变量，之后收集并分析数据来验证奥尔波特公式(流言传播的广度＝重要性×模糊性)。在此研究的基础之上，我们继续加以量化，建立数学简化模型，以数学分析的方法研究流言的传播情况与各类人数比例的关系（各类人分为即相信并传播，相信并不传播，不相信并传播，不相信并不传播四类）。在分析出现辟谣的现象的情况时，还把辟谣的因素（即辟谣传播的公比和辟谣出现的时刻）加入通式，使各类因素形成内部联系。

研究结果简要如下：

1．传播的广度与模糊性和重要性均相关。传播的广度也可以理解为传播公比。

2．传播公比、辟谣公比和辟谣出现的时刻均对流言的传播有不同方面的影响。

相信流言人数最大值与传播公比和辟谣出现的时刻正相关，与辟谣公比负相关。

流言终结时间与传播公比和辟谣出现的时刻正相关，与辟谣公比负相关。

关键词：

奥尔波特公式模糊性重要性数学建模辟谣公比

Abstract

In today’s society the rumor has become an important factor affecting the decision-making of people’s in their lives. The spreading of vicious rumor results in serious damage to the social order, and brings inconvenience to people. Therefore, exploring the rules of the rumor spreading is essential to curb its spreading, and is of important significance for enhancing the stability and development of the society as well.

From the beginning of the twentieth century, many psychologists have committed to the research of rumor. For instance, Potter proposed a formula of rumor and Dr. Prasad developed the dimensions of rumor. Throughout most of the previous studies, it’s found that most of the researchers did their research from the perspective of self-awareness, which is short of systematic experiments with sufficient data theoretical framework.

Based on this, in the process of our exploration, we not only study the factors from the perspective of social psychology, but also use mathematical modeling to find out the rules of rumor spreading. The breadth of rumor is approximately handled as the percentage of people who believe the rumor. In the form of questionnaire survey, we respectively control two variables, rumor fuzziness and rumor importance, and then collect and analyze the data to validate Potter’s formula (breadth = fuzziness × importance). On the basis of the study, we made a promotion by quantifying the spreading process, and set up a simplified mathematical model to study the relationship between the rumor spreading and various proportion (the reaction of people who contact a rumor can be divided into 4 categories: believe and spread, believe and don't spread, don't believe and spread, don't believe and don’t spread) When analyzing, the phenomenon of the rumors and the factor that is related to the refutation of the rumor should be added into the general formula, forming internal connections among all kinds of factors.

The results of the study are as follows:

1. The breadth of the rumor spreading depends on the fuzziness and importance.

2. How the crowds react to the rumor, when the first person who refute the rumor turn up and the percentage of people who spread the rumor all have influence on the variation trend in different ways.

Key words:

Mr. Potter’s formula fuzziness importance

Mathematical modeling the percentage of rumor refutation