沃伦巴菲特在Florida商学院的演讲
巴菲特最著名的演讲
巴菲特最著名的演讲——价值投资为什么能够持续战胜市场每个人都期望自己能成功，但是我们后来者的成功建立在大师的肩膀上才能少走弯路，才能有所突破。
自然科学的发展也证明了这一点，就像爱因斯坦不可能出现在原始社会的部落中一样，原始社会没有发现相对论的基础，也不会出现这么伟大的科学家了。
人类发展的历史永远是螺旋式的上升，可以有反复、甚至有倒退，向上的趋势将永远不变，直到最后的崩溃，崩溃的结果是另一个智慧生命的开始，宇宙间的一切都是周而复始。
有些朋友会说，前人的东西往往是不对的，是应该批判的。
但是我们能够批判的依据和思想从哪里来，不要告诉我，你从没受过人类的教育，就能够批判，其实也是来自于前人思想的积累。
希望朋友们能认真的读，如果能有所收获也就达到目的了，能够突破的话就要恭喜你了！巴菲特最著名的演讲：价值投资为什么能够持续战胜市场每个价值投资人的投资业绩都来自于利用企业股票市场价格与其内在价值之间的差异。
——巴菲特价值投资策略最终要归根于本杰明·格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）的思想。
1934年年底，他与戴维·多德（David Dodd）合作完成了他酝酿已久的《证券分析》（Security Analysis）。
这部划时代的著作标志着证券分析业和价值投资思想的诞生。
这本巨著在过去70年间共发行了五版，被誉为投资者的“圣经”。
纽约证券分析协会强调，格雷厄姆“对于投资的意义就像欧几里得对于几何学、达尔文对于生物进化论一样重要"。
格雷厄姆“给这座令人惊叹而为之却步的城市——股票市场绘制了第一张可以依赖的地图，他为价值投资奠定了方XX的基础，而在此之前，股票投资与赌博几乎毫无差别。
价值投资没有格雷厄姆，就如同共产主义没有马克思——原则性将不复存在。
”人们通常认为是格雷厄姆确立了证券分析的原则，所以格雷厄姆被尊称为"现代证券分析之父"。
1984年，在哥伦比亚大学纪念格雷厄姆与多德合著的《证券分析》出版50周年的庆祝活动中，巴菲特——这位格雷厄姆在哥伦比亚大学的投资课上唯一给了“A＋”的最优秀的学生进行了一次演讲，他在演讲中回顾了50年来格雷厄姆的追随者们采用价值投资策略持续战胜市场的无可争议的事实，总结归纳出价值投资策略的精髓，在投资界具有非常大的影响力...编者：“格雷厄姆—多德都市的超级投资者们”作为巴菲特最著名的演讲名留青史，广为流传。
巴菲特在佛罗里达大学的演讲
Buffett Lecture at the University of Florida School of Business October 15, 1998This speech was the first in a series sponsored by the Graham-Buffett Teaching Endowment, established in 1997 by a $1 million gift from (1970 UF graduate) Mason Hawkins./c85orIntroduction:The Graham-Buffett Course sequence is important to this college because it enables us to attract students who want this perspective on investing and managing corporations—a perspective that has been successfully employed by Mr. Buffett, Mr. Hawkins and before them, Benjamin Graham.This perspective is quite simple but is sometimes lost in the complexity of our University analysis. The perspective is that you have to understand the underlying economics of the businesses that you invest in, work in. You have to be clear-eyed and not be swayed by the crowd or passing fancies of the moment. And you have to learn and stick to disciplined principles of business valuation.In the long run this disciplined approach will more often than not bring success or more importantly avoid spectacular failures.Hopefully at the University of Florida we can successfully convey those principles and create a program for the very best students and in time the very best employers as well. We thank Mr. Hawkins for his gift ($1 million) and share his thoughts today.Mason Hawkins: He is someone I have admired tremendously for the last 30 years. In addition, he is someone each of us could pattern our lives after as a role model. It is my honor to introduce our lifetime's best long-term investor……-------------Buffett: (holds mike) Testing: One million $, two million $….three million $.I would like to say a few words primarily and then the highlight for me will be getting your questions. I want to talk about what is on your mind.Your FutureI would like to talk for just one minute to the students about your future when you leave here. Because you will learn a tremendous amount about investments, you all have the ability to do well; you all have the IQ to do well. You all have the energy and initiative to do well or you wouldn't be here. Most of you will succeed in meeting your aspirations.But in determining whether you succeed there is more to it than intellect and energy. I would like to talk just a second about that. In fact, there was a guy, Pete Kiewit in Omaha, who used to say, he looked for three things in hiring people: integrity, intelligence and energy. And he said if the person did not have the first two, the later two would kill him, because if they don't have integrity, you want them dumb and lazy.We want to talk about the first two because we know you have the last two. You are all second-year MBA students, so you have gotten to know your classmates. Think for a moment that I granted you the right--you can buy 10% of one of your classmate’s earnings for the rest of their lifetime. You can't pick someone with a rich father; you have to pick someone who is going to do it on his or her own merit. And I gave you an hour to think about it.Will you give them an IQ test and pick the one with the highest IQ? I doubt it. Will you pick the one with the best grades? The most energetic? You will start looking for qualitative factors, in addition to (the quantitative) because everyone has enough brains and energy. You would probably pick the one you responded the best to, the one who has the leadership qualities, the one who is able to get other people to carry out their interests. That would be the person who is generous, honest and who gave credit to other people for their own ideas. All types of qualities. Whomever you admire the most in the class. Then I would throw in a hooker. In addition to this person you had to go short one of your classmates.That is more fun. Who do I want to go short? You wouldn't pick the person with the lowest IQ, you would think about the person who turned you off, the person who is egotistical, who is greedy, who cuts corners, who is slightly dishonest.As you look at those qualities on the left and right hand side, there is one interesting thing about them, it is not the ability to throw a football 60 yards, it is not the ability the run the 100 yard dash in 9.3 seconds, it is not being the best looking person in the class, they are all qualities that if you really want to have the ones on the left hand side, you can have them.They are qualities of behavior, temperament, character that are achievable, they are not forbidden to anybody in this group. And if you look at the qualities on the right hand side the ones that turn you off in other people, there is not a quality there that you have to have. You can get rid of it. You can get rid of it a lot easier at your age than at my age, because most behaviors are habitual. The chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken. There is no question about it. I see people with these self- destructive behavior patterns at my age or even twenty years younger and they really are entrapped by them.They go around and do things that turn off other people right and left. They don't need to be that way but by a certain point they get so they can hardly change it. But at your age you can have any habits, any patterns of behavior that you wish. It is simply a question of which you decide.If you did this… Ben Graham looked around at the people he admired and Ben Franklin did this before him. Ben Graham did this in his low teens and he looked around at the people he admired and he said, "I want to be admired, so why don't I behave like them?" And he found out that there was nothing impossible about behaving like them. Similarly he did the same thing on the reverse side in terms of getting rid of those qualities. I would suggest is that if you write those qualities down and think about them a while and make them habitual, you will be the one you want to buy 10% of when you are all through. And the beauty of it is that you already own 100% of yourself and you are stuck with it. So you might as well be that person, that somebody else.Well that is a short little sermon. So let's get on with what you are interested in. Let's start with questions………..Question: What about Japan? Your thoughts about Japan?Buffett: My thoughts about Japan? I am not a macro guy. Now I say to myself Berkshire Hathaway can borrow money in Japan for 10 years at one percent. One percent! I say gee, I took Graham's class 45 years ago and I have been working hard at this all my life maybe I can earn more than 1% annually, it doesn't seem impossible. I wouldn't want to get involved in currency risk, so it would have to be Yen-denominated. I would have to be in Japanese Real Estate or Japanese companies or something of the sort and all I have to do is beat one percent. That is all the money is going to cost me and I can get it for 10 years. So far I haven't found anything. It is kind of interesting. The Japanese businesses earn very low returns on equity - 4% to 5% - 6% on equity and it is very hard to earn a lot as an investor when the business you are in doesn't earn very much money.Now some people do it. In fact, I have a friend, Walter Schloss, who worked at Graham at the same time I did. And it was the first way I went at stocks to buy stocks selling way below working capital. A very cheap, quantitative approach to stocks. I call it the cigar butt approach to investing. You walk down the street and you look around for a cigar butt someplace. Finally you see one and it is soggy and kind of repulsive, but there is one puff left in it. So you pick it up and the puff is free--it is a cigar butt stock. You get one free puff on it and then you throw it away and try another one. It is not elegant. But it works. Those are low return businesses.But time is the friend of the wonderful business; it is the enemy of the lousy business. If you are in a lousy business for a long time, you will get a lousy result even if you buy it cheap. If you are in a wonderful business for a long time, even if you pay a little bit too much going in you will get a wonderful result if you stay in a long time.I find very few wonderful businesses in Japan at present. They may change the culture in some way so that management gets more share holder responsive over there and stock returns are higher. At the present time you will find a lot of low return businesses and that was true even when the Japanese economy was booming. It is amazing; they had anincredible market without incredible companies. They were incredible in terms of doing a lot of business, but they were not incredible in terms of the return on equity that they achieved and that has finally caught up with them. So we have so far done nothing there. But as long as money is 1% there, we will keep looking.Question: You were rumored to be one of the rescue buyers of Long Term Capital, what was the play there, what did you see?Buffett: The Fortune Magazine that has Rupert Murdoch on the cover. It tells the whole story of our involvement; it is kind of an interesting story. I got the really serious call about LTCM on a Friday afternoon that things were getting serious. I know those people most of them pretty well--most of them at Salomon when I was there. And the place was imploding and the FED was sending people up that weekend. Between that Friday and the following Wed. when the NY Fed, in effect, orchestrated a rescue effort but without any Federal money involved. I was quite active but I was having a terrible time reaching anybody.We put in a bid on Wednesday morning. I talked to Bill McDonough at the NY Fed. We made a bid for 250 million for the net assets but we would have put in 3 and 3/4 billion on top of that. $3 billion from Berkshire, $700 mil. from AIG and $300 million. from Goldman Sachs. And we submitted that but we put a very short time limit on that because when you are bidding on 100 billion worth of securities that are moving around, youdon't want to leave a fixed price bid out there for very long.In the end the bankers made the deal, but it was an interesting period. The whole LTCM is really fascinating because if you take Larry Hillenbrand, Eric Rosenfeld, John Meriwether and the two Nobel prize winners. If you take the 16 of them, they have about as high an IQ as any 16 people working together in one business in the country, including Microsoft. An incredible amount of intellect in one room. Now you combine that with the fact that those people had extensive experience in the field they were operating in. These were not a bunch of guys who had made their money selling men’s clothing and all of a sudden went into the securities business. They had in aggregate, the 16, had 300 or 400 years of experience doing exactly what they were doing and then you throw in the third factor that most of them had most of their very substantial net worth’s in the businesses. Hundreds and hundreds of millions of their own money up (at risk), super high intellect and working in a field that they knew. Essentially they went broke. That to me is absolutely fascinating.If I ever write a book it will be called, Why Smart People Do Dumb Things. My partner says it should be autobiographical. But this might be an interesting illustration. They are perfectly decent guys. I respect them and they helped me out when I had problems at Salomon. They are not bad people at all.But to make money they didn’t have and didn’t need, they risked what they did have and what they did need. That is just plain foolish; it doesn’t matter what your IQ is. If you risk something that is important to you for something that is unimportant to you it justdoesn’t make sense. I don’t care if the odds you succeed are 99 to 1 or 1000 to 1 that you succeed. If you hand me a gun with a million chambers with one bullet in a chamber and put it up to your temple and I am paid to pull the trigger, it doesn’t matter how much I would be paid. I would not pull the trigger. You can name any sum you want, but it doesn’t do anything for me on the upside and I think the downside is fairly clear. Yet people do it financially very much without thinking.There was a lousy book with a great title written by Walter Gutman—You Only Have to Get Rich Once. Now that seems pretty fundamental. If you have $100 million at the beginning of the year and you will make 10% if you are unleveraged and 20% if you are leveraged 99 times out of a 100, what difference if at the end of the year, you have $110 million or $120 million? It makes no difference. If you die at the end of the year, the guy who makes up the story may make a typo, he may have said 110 even though you had a 120. You have gained nothing at all. It makes absolutely no difference. It makes no difference to your family or anybody else.The downside, especially if you are managing other people’s money, is not only losing all your money, but it is disgrace, humiliation and facing friends whose money you have lost. Yet 16 guys with very high IQs entered into that game. I think it is madness. It is produced by an over reliance to some extent on things. Those guys would tell me back at Salomon; a six Si gm a event wouldn’t touch us. But they were wrong. History does not tell you of future things happening. They had a great reliance on mathematics. They thought that the Beta of the stock told you something about the risk of the stock. It doesn’t tell you a damn thing about the risk of the stock in my view.Si gm a’s do not tell you about the risk of going broke in my view and maybe now in their view too. But I don’t like to use them as an example. The same thing in a different way could happen to any of us, where we really have a blind spot about something that is crucial, because we know a whole lot of something else. It is like Henry Kauffman said, “The ones who are going broke in this situation are of two types, the ones who know nothing and the ones who know everything.” It is sad in a way.I urge you. We basically never borrow money. I never borrowed money even when I had $10,000 basically, what difference did it make. I was having fun as I went along it didn’t matter whether I had $10,000 or $100,000 or $1,000,000 unless I had a medical emergency come along.I was going to do the same things when I had a little bit of money as when I had a lot of money. If you think of the difference between me and you, we wear the same clothes basically (SunTrust gives me mine), we eat similar food—we all go to McDonald’s or better yet, Dairy Queen, and we live in a house that is warm in winter and cool in summer. We watch the Nebraska (football) game on big screen TV. You see it the same way I see it. We do everything the same—our lives are not that different. The only thing we do is we travel differently. What can I do that you can’t do?I get to work in a job that I love, but I have always worked at a job that I loved. I loved it just as much when I thought it was a big deal to make $1,000. I urge you to work in jobs that you love. I think you are out of your mind if you keep taking jobs that you don’t like because you think it will look good on your resume. I was with a fellow at Harvard the other day who was taking me over to talk. He was 28 and he was telling me all that he had done in life, which was terrific. And then I said, “What will you do next?” “Well,” he said, “Maybe after I get my MBA I will go to work for a consulting firm because it will look good on my resume.” I said, “Look, you are 28 and you have been doing all these things, you have a resume 10 times than anybody I have ever seen. Isn’t that a little like saving up sex for your old age?There comes a time when you ought to start doing what you want. Take a job that you love. You will jump out of bed in the morning. When I first got out of Columbia Business School, I wanted to go to work for Graham immediately for nothing. He thought I was over-priced. But I kept pestering him. I sold securities for three years and I kept writing him and finally I went to work for him for a couple of years. It was a great experience. But I always worked in a job that I loved doing. You really should take a job that if you were independently wealthy that would be the job you would take. You will learn something, you will be excited about, and you will jump out of bed. You can’t miss. You may try something else later on, but you will get way more out of it and I don’t care what the starting salary is.When you get out of here take a job you love, not a job you think will look good on your resume. You ought to find something you like.If you think you will be happier getting 2x instead of 1x, you are probably making a mistake. You will get in trouble if you think making 10x or 20x will make you happier because then you will borrow money when you shouldn’t or cut corners on things. It just doesn’t make sense and you won’t like it when you look back.Question: What makes a company something that you like?Buffett: I like businesses that I can understand. Let’s start with that. That narrows it down by 90%. There are all types of things I don’t understand, but fortunately, there is enough I do understand. You have this big wide world out there and almost every company is publicly owned. So you have all American business practically available to you. So it makes sense to go with things you can understand.I can understand this, anyone can understand this (Buffett holds up a bottle of Coca-Cola). Since 1886, it is a simple business, but it is not an easy business—I don’t want an easy business for competitors. I want a business with a moat around it. I want a very valuable castle in the middle and then I want the Duke who is in charge of that castle to be very honest and hard working and able. Then I want a moat around that castle. The moat can be various things: The moat around our auto insurance business, Geico, is low cost.People have to buy auto insurance so everyone is going to have one auto insurance policy per car basically. I can’t sell them 20, but they have to buy one. I can sell them 1. What are they going to buy it on? (based on what criteria?) They (customers) will buy based on service and cost. Most people will assume the service is identical among companies or close enough. So they will do it on cost. So I have to be a low cost producer--that is my moat. To the extent that my costs are further below the other guy, I have thrown a couple of sharks into the moat. All the time you have this wonderful castle, there are people out there who are going to attack it and try to take it away from you. I want a castle I can understand, but I want a castle with a moat around it.Kodak30 years ago, Eastman Kodak’s moat was just as wide as Coca-Cola’s moat. I mean if you were going to take a picture of your six-month old baby and you want to look at that picture 20 years from now or 50 years from now. And you are never going to get a chance—you are not a professional photographer—so you can evaluate what is going to look good 20 or 50 years ago. What is in your mind about that photography company (Share of Mind) is what counts. Because they are promising you that the picture you take today is going to be terrific 20 to 50 years from now about something that is very important to you. Well, Kodak had that in spades 30 years ago, they owned that. They had what I call share of mind. Forget about share of market, share of mind. They had something—that little yellow box—that said Kodak is the best. That is priceless. They have lost some of that. They haven’t lost it all.It is not due to George Fisher. George is doing a great job, but they let that moat narrow. They let Fuji come and start narrowing the moat in various ways. They let them get into the Olympics and take away that special aspect that only Kodak was fit to photograph the Olympics. So Fuji gets there and immediately in people’s minds, Fuji becomes more into parity with Kodak.You haven’t seen that with Coke; Coke’s moat is wider now than it was 30 years ago. You can’t see the moat day by day but every time the infrastructure that gets built in some country that isn’t yet profitable for Coke that will be 20 years from now. The moat is widening a little bit. Things are, all the time, changing a little in one direction or the other. Ten years from now, you will see the difference. Our managers of the businesses we run, I have one message to them, and we want to widen the moat. We want to throw crocs, sharks and gators—I guess—into the moat to keep away competitors. That comes about through service, through quality of product, it comes about through cost, some times through patents, and/or real estate location. So that is the business I am looking for.Now what kind of businesses am I going to find like that? Well, I am going to find them in simple products because I am not going to be able to figure what the moat is going to look like for Oracle, Lotus or Microsoft, ten years from now. Gates is the best businessman I have ever run into and they have a hell of a position, but I really don’t know what that business is going to look like ten years from now. I certainly don’t knowwhat his competitors will look like ten years from now. I know what the chewing business will look like ten years from now. The Internet is not going to change how we chew gum and nothing much else is going to change how we chew gum. There will lots of new products. Is Spearmint or Juicy Fruit going to evaporate? It isn’t going to happen. You give me a billion dollars and tell me to go into the chewing gum business and try to make a real dent in Wrigley’s. I can’t do it. That is how I think about businesses. I say to myself, give me a billion dollars and how much can I hurt the guy? Give me $10 billion dollars and how much can I hurt Coca-Cola around the world? I can’t do it. Those are good businesses.Now give me some money and tell me to hurt somebody in some other fields, and I can figure out how to do it.So I want a simple business, easy to understand, great economics now, honest and able management, and then I can see about in a general way where they will be ten (10) years from now. If I can’t see where they will be ten years from now, I don’t want to buy it. Basically, I don’t want to buy any stock where if they close the NYSE tomorrow for five years, I won’t be happy owning it. I buy a farm and I don’t get a quote on it for five years and I am happy if the farm does OK. I buy an apartment house and don’t get a quote on it for five years, I am happy if the apartment house produces the returns that I expect. People buy a stock and they look at the price next morning and they decide to see if they are doing well or not doing well. It is crazy. They are buying a piece of the business. That is what Graham—the most fundamental part of what he taught me.You are not buying a stock, you are buying part ownership in a business. You will do well if the business does well, if you didn’t pay a totally silly price. That is what it is all about. You ought to buy businesses you understand. Just like if you buy farms, you ought to buy farms you understand. It is not complicated.Incidentally, by the way, in calling this Graham-Buffett, this is pure Graham. I was very fortunate. I picked up his book (The Intelligent Investor) when I was nineteen; I got interested in stocks when I was 6 or 7. I bought my first stock when I was eleven. But I was playing around with all this stuff—I had charts and volume and I was making all types of technical calculations and everything. Then I picked up a little book that said you are not just buying some little ticker symbol, that bounces around every day, you are buying part of a business. Soon as I started thinking about it that way, everything else followed. It is very simple. So we buy businesses we think we can understand. There is no one here who can’t understand Coke………….. (end of first side.)If I was teaching a class at business school, on the final exam I would pass out the information on an Internet company and ask each student to value it. Anybody that gave me an answer, I’d flunk (Laughter).I don’t know how to do it. But people do it all the time; it is more exciting. If you look at it like you are going to the races--that is a different thing--but if you are investing…. Investing is putting out money to be sure of getting more back later at an appropriate rate.And to do that you have to understand what you are doing at any time. You have to understand the business. You can understand some businesses but not all businesses.Question: You covered half of it which is trying to understand a business and buying a business. You also alluded to getting a return on the amount of capital invested in the business. How do you determine what is the proper price to pay for the business?Buffett: It is a tough thing to decide but I don’t want to buy into any business I am not terribly sure of. So if I am terribly sure of it, it probably won’t offer incredible returns. Why should something that is essentially a cinch to do well, offer you 40% a year? We don’t have huge returns in mind, but we do have in mind not losing anything. We bought See’s Candy in 1972, See’s Candy was then selling 16 m. pounds of candy at a $1.95 a pound and it was making 2 bits a pound or $4 million pre-tax. We paid $25 million for it—6.25 x pretax or about 10x after tax. It took no capital to speak of. When we looked at that business—basically, my partner, Charlie, and I—we needed to decide if there was some untapped pricing power there. Where that $1.95 box of candy could sell for $2 to $2.25. If it could sell for $2.25 or another $0.30 per pound that was $4.8 on 16 million pounds. Which on a $25 million purchase price was fine. We never hired a consultant in our lives; our idea of consulting was to go out and buy a box of candy and eat it.What we did know was that they had share of mind in California. There was something special. Every person in Ca. has something in mind about See’s Candy and overwhelmingly it was favorable. They had taken a box on Valentine’s Day to some girl and she had kissed him. If she slapped him, we would have no business. As long as she kisses him, that is what we want in their minds. See’s Candy means getting kissed. If we can get that in the minds of people, we can raise prices. I bought it in 1972, and every year I have raised prices on Dec. 26th, the day after Christmas, because we sell a lot on Christmas. In fact, we will make $60 million this year. We will make $2 per pound on 30 million pounds. Same business, same formulas, same everything--$60 million bucks and it still doesn’t take any capital.And we make more money 10 years from now. But of that $60 million, we make $55 million in the three weeks before Christmas. And our company song is: “What a friend we have in Jesus.” (Laughter). It is a good business. Think about it a little. Most people do not buy boxed chocolate to consume themselves, they buy them as gifts—somebody’s birthday or more likely it is a holiday. Valentine’s Day is the single biggest day of the year. Christmas is the biggest season by far. Women buy for Christmas and they plan ahead and buy over a two or three week period. Men buy on Valentine’s Day. They are driving home; we run ads on the Radio. Guilt, guilt, guilt—guys are veering off the highway right and left. They won’t dare go home without a box of Chocolates by the time we get through with them on our radio ads. So that Valentine’s Day is the biggest day.Can you imagine going home on Valentine’s Day—our See’s Candy is now $11 a pound thanks to my brilliance. And let’s say there is candy available at $6 a pound. Do you。
慢慢变富的罗宾逊：巴菲特1998年佛罗里达大学商学院经典演讲
慢慢变富的罗宾逊：巴菲特1998年佛罗里达大学商学院经典演讲Question: The Asian Crisis and how it affects a company like Coke that recently announced their earnings would be lower in the fourth quarter.Buffett: Well, basically I love it, but because the market for Coca-Cola products will grow far faster over the next twenty years internationally than it will in the United States. It will grow in the U.S. on a per capita basis. The fact that it will be a tough period for who knows—three months or three years—but it wont be tough for twenty years. People will still be going to be working productively around the world and they are going to find this is a bargain product in terms of a portion of their working day that they have to give up in order to have one of these, better yet, five of them a day like I do.This is a product that in 1936 when I first bought 6 of those for a quarter and sold them for a nickel each. It was in a 6.5 oz bottle and you paid a two cents deposit on the bottle. That was a 6.5 oz. bottle for a nickel at that time; it is now a 12 oz. can which if you buy it on Weekends or if you buy it in bigger quantities, so much money doesnt go to packaging—you essentially can buy the 12 ozs. for not much more than 20 cents. So you are paying not much more than twice the per oz. price of 1936. This is a product that has gotten cheaper and cheaper relative to peoples earning power over the years. And which people love. And in 200 countries, you have the per capita consumption use going up every year for a product that is over 100 years old that dominates the market. That is unbelievable.One thing that people dont understand is one thing thatmakes this product worth 10s and 10s of billions of dollars is one simple fact about really all colas, but we will call it Coca-Cola for the moment. It happens to be a name that I like. Cola has no taste memory. You can drink one of these at 9 Oclock, 10 Oclock, 1 Oclock and 5 Oclock. The one at 5 oclock will taste as good to you as the one you drank early in the morning, you cant do that with Cream Soda, Root Beer, Orange, Grape. All of those things accumulate on you. Most foods and beverages accumulate; you get sick of them after a while. And if you eat Sees Candy—we get these people who go to work for us at Sees Candy and the first day they go crazy, but after a week they are eating the same amount as if they were buying it, because chocolate accumulates on you. There is no taste memory to Cola and that means you get people around the world who will be heavy users—who will drink five a day, or for Diet Coke, 7 or even 8 a day. They will never do that with other products. So you get this incredible per capita consumption. The average person in this part of the world or maybe a little north of here drinks 64 ozs. of liquid a day. You can have 64 ozs. of that be Coke and you will not get fed up with Coke if you like it to start with in the least. But if you do that with anything else; if you eat just one product all day, you will get a little sick of it after a while.It is a huge factor. So today over 1 billion of Coca-Cola product servings will be sold in the world and that will grow year by year. It will grow in every country virtually, and it will grow on a per capita basis. And twenty years from now it will grow a lot faster internationally than in the U.S., so I really like that market better, because there is more growth there over time. But it will hurt them in the short term right now, but that doesnt mean anything. Coca-Cola went public in 1919; the stock sold for $40per share. The Chandler family bought the whole business for $2,000 back in the late 1880s. So now he goes public in 1919, $40 per share. One year later it is selling for $19 per share. It has gone down 50% in one year. You might think it is some kind of disaster and you might think sugar prices increased and the bottlers were rebellious. And a whole bunch of things. You can always find reasons that weren't the ideal moment to buy it. Years later you would have seen the Great Depression, WW II and sugar rationing and thermonuclear weapons and the whole thing—there is always a reason.But in the end if you had bought one share at $40 per share and reinvested the dividends, it would be worth $5 million now ($40 compounding at 14.63% for 86 years!). That factor so overrides anything else. If you are right about the business you will make a lot of money. The timing part of it is very tricky thing so I dont worry about any given event if I got a wonderful business what it does next year or something of the sort. Price controls have been in this country at various times and that has fouled up even the best of businesses. I wouldnt be able to raise prices Dec31st on Sees Candy. But that doesnt make it a lousy business if that happens to happen, because you are not going to have price controls forever. We had price controls in the early 70s.The wonderful business—you can figure what will happen, you cant figure out when it will happen. You dont want to focus too much on when but you want to focus on what. If you are right about what, you dont have to worry about when very much.Question: What about your business mistakes?Buffett: How much time do you have? The interesting thing about investments for me and my partner, Charlie Munger, thebiggest mistakes have not been mistakes of commission, but of omission. They are where we knew enough about the business to do something and where, for one reason or another, sat they're sucking out thumbs instead of doing something. And so we have passed up things where we could have made billions and billions of dollars from things we understood, forget about things we dont understand. The fact I could have made billions of dollars from Microsoft doesnt mean anything because I never could understand Microsoft. But if I can make billions out of healthcare stocks, then I should make it. And I didnt when the Clinton health care program was proposed and they all went in the tank. We should have made a ton of money out of that because I could understand it. And didnt make it.I should have made a ton of money out of Fannie Mae back the mid-1980s, but I didnt do it. Those are billion dollar mistakes or multi-billion dollar mistakes that generally accepted accounting principles dont pick up.The mistakes you see. I made a mistake when I bought US Air Preferred some years ago. I had a lot of money around. I make mistakes when I get cash. Charlie tells me to go to a bar instead. Dont hang around the office. But I hang around the office and I have money in my pocket, I do something dumb. It happens every time. So I bought this thing. Nobody made me buy it. I now have an 800 number I call every time I think about buying a stock in an airline. I say,I am Warren and I am an air-aholic.They try to talk me down,Keep talking dont do anything rash.Finally I got over it. But I bought it. And it looked like we would lose all our money in it. And we came very close to losing all our money in it. You can say we deserved to lose our money it.We bought it because it was an attractive security. But it was not in an attractive industry. I did the same thing in Salomon. Ibought an attractive security in a business I wouldnt have bought the equity in. So you could say that is one form of mistake. Buying something because you like the terms, but you dont like the business that well. I have done that in the past and will probably do that again.The bigger mistakes are the ones of omission. Back when I had $10,000 I put $2,000 of it into a Sinclair Service Station which I lost, so the opportunity cost on that money is about $6 billion right now--fairly big mistakes. It makes me feel good when my Berkshire goes down, because the cost of my Sinclair Station goes down too. My 20% opportunity cost. I will say this, it is better to learn from other peoples mistakes as much as possible. But we dont spend any time looking back at Berkshire. I have a partner, Charlie Munger; we have been pals for forty years—never had an argument. We disagree on things a lot but we dont have arguments about it.We never look back. We just figure there is so much to look forward to that there is no sense thinking of what we might have done. It just doesnt make any difference. You can only live life forward. You can learn something perhaps from the mistakes, but the big thing to do is to stick with the businesses you understand. So if there is a generic mistake outside your circle of competence like buying something that somebody tips you on or something of the sort. In an area you know nothing about, you should learn something from that which is to stay with what you can figure out yourself. You really want your decision making to be by looking in the mirror. Saying to yourself,I am buying 100 shares of General Motors at $55 because........It is your responsibility if you are buying it. Theres gotta be a reason and if you cant state the reason, you shouldnt buy it. If it is because someone told youabout it at a cocktail party, not good enough. It cant be because of the volume or a reason like the chart looks good. It has to be a reason to buy the business. That we stick to pretty carefully. That is one of the things Ben Graham taught me.Question: The current tenuous economic situation and interest rates? Where are we going?Buffett: I dont think about the macro stuff. What you really want to in investments is figure out what is important and knowable. If it is unimportant and unknowable, you forget about it. What you talk about is important but, in my view, it is not knowable. Understanding Coca-Cola is knowable or Wrigleys or Eastman Kodak. You can understand those businesses that are knowable. Whether it turns out to be important depends where your valuation leads you and the firms price and all that. But we have never not bought or bought a business because of any Macro feeling of any kind because it doesnt make any difference. Lets say in 1972 when we bought Sees Candy, I think Nixon put on the price controls a little bit later, but so what! We would have missed a chance to buy something for $25 million that is producing $60 million pre-tax now. We dont want to pass up the chance to do something intelligent because of some prediction about something we are no good on anyway. So we dont read or listen to in relation to macro factors at all. The typical investment counselor organization goes out and they bring out their economist and they trot him out and he gives you this big macro picture. And they start working from there on down. In our view that is nonsense.If Alan Greenspan was on the one side of me and Robert Rubin on the other side and they both were whispering in my ear exactly what they were going to do the next twelve months, itwouldnt make any difference to me what I would pay for Executive Jet or General Re or anything else I do.Question: What is the benefit of being an out-of-towner as opposed to being on Wall Street?Buffett: I worked on Wall Street for a couple of years and I have my best friends on both coasts. I like seeing them. I get ideas when I go there. But the best way to think about investments is to be in a room with no one else and just think. And if that doesnt work, nothing else is going to work. The disadvantage of being in any type of market environment like Wall Street in the extreme is that you get over-stimulated. You think you have to do something every day. The Chandler family paid $2,000 for this company (Coke). You dont have to do much else if you pick one of those. And the trick then is not to do anything else. Even not to sell at 1919, which the family did later on. So what you are looking for is some way to get one good idea a year.And then ride it to its full potential and that is very hard to do in an environment where people are shouting prices back and forth every five minutes and shoving reports in front of your nose and all that. Wall Street makes its money on activity. You make your money on inactivity.If everyone in this room trades their portfolio around every day with every other person, you will all end up broke. And the intermediary will end up with all the money. If you all own stock in a group of average businesses and just sit here for the next 50 years, you will end up with a fair amount of money and your broker will be broke. He is like the Doctor who gets paid on how often to get you to change pills. If he gave you one pill that cures you the rest of your life, he would make one sale, one transaction and that is it. But if he can convince you that changing pills everyday is the way to great health, it will be great for him and the prescriptionists. You wont be any healthier and you will be a lot worse off financially. You want to stay away from any environment that stimulates activity. And Wall Street would have the effective of doing that.When I went back to Omaha, I would go back with a whole list of companies I wanted to check out and I would get my moneys worth out of those trips, but then I would go back to Omaha and think about it.Question: How to evaluate Berkshire or MSFT if it does not pay dividends?Buffett: It wont pay any dividends either. That is a promise I can keep. All you get with Berkshire, you stick it in your safe deposit box and then every year you go down and fondle it. You take it out and then you put it back. There is enormous psychic reward in that. Dont underestimate it.The real question is if we can retain dollar bills and turn them into more than a dollar at a decent rate. That is what we try to do. And Charlie Munger and I have all our money in it to do that. That is all we will get paid for doing. We wont take any options or we wont take any salaries to speak of. But that is what we are trying to do. It gets harder all the time. The more money we manage the harder it is to do that. We would do way better percentage wise with Berkshire if it was 1/100th the present size. It is run for its owners, but it isnt run to give them dividends because so far every dollar that we earned or could have paid out, we have turned into more than a dollar. It is worth more than a dollar to keep it. Therefore, it would be silly to pay it out. Even if everyone was tax-free that owned it. It would have been a mistake to pay dividends at Berkshire. Because so far the dollarbills retained have turned into more than a dollar. But there is no guarantee that happens in the future. At some point the game runs out on that. That is what the business is about. Nothing else about the business do we judge ourselves by. We dont judge it by the size of its home office building or anything the like the number of people working there. We have 12 people working at headquarters and 45,000 employees at Berkshire, 12 people at HQ and 3,500 sq ft. and we wont change it.But we will judge ourselves by the performance of the company and that is the only way we will get paid. But believe me, it is a lot harder than it used to be.。
[VIP专享]演讲稿 巴菲特
![[VIP专享]演讲稿 巴菲特](https://img.taocdn.com/s3/m/27cbfc8155270722182ef760.png)
的。
这些正是他成功的主要原因，也是最值得我们学习的地方。
我从书中的每一部分都拿出了一些例子，让我们从这些事件中体会一下巴菲特的智慧。
一先修炼自己，后投资事业一个优秀的投资者必须具备良好的心态和过硬的基本素质，巴菲特之所以能够成功，就是因为在这方面具有自信，理智，理智，坚毅，独立等良好的品性\成功从兴趣开始沃伦·巴菲特出生于美国内布拉斯加州的奥马哈市据说巴菲特5岁时就在家中摆地摊兜售口香糖，稍大后他带领小伙伴到球场捡大款用过的高尔夫球，然后转手倒卖，生意非常红火巴菲特从他祖父的杂货店里购买可乐，然后再以零售的方式售给邻居，这是一般孩子不能做到的少年时的巴菲特就能把（赚一千美金的一千种方法）这本书背出来，尤其钟爱一种叫本·尼威特的机器，他经常想想自己能从一台机器开始，是它的盈利逐渐增加到几千美元。
对此深信不疑。
有人曾问他为什么想赚那么多钱，最受欢迎的人，但也不是最不受欢迎的人。
我只是一个无足轻重的人."巴菲特用平常心这样评价自己向高手学习不断地学习之所以成为举世闻名的投资者，这与他在青少年时期的勤奋好学精神是分不开的。
巴菲特只要一有时间就一头扎进内布拉斯加州府林肯市的图书馆，认真查阅各种保险业的发展情况，并且从中发现了美国保险业中存在的许多未被人们注意的数据。
巴菲特进入宾夕法尼亚大学攻读的是财务和商业管理，但他觉得教授的空头理论用处不大，两年后便不辞而别，辗转考入哥大金融系，拜师于著名投资学理论学家本杰明·格雷厄姆。
在格雷厄姆门下，巴菲特如鱼得水。
巴菲特阅读了格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》，并在后来可以称得上真正的“投资”实践中，继承发展了这些理论，使其日臻完善大学毕业后，巴菲特的求知之路依然延续了下去。
他忙完了每天的工作后便全身心地投入到学习之中——大量阅读各种金融报刊。
现在我给大家介绍一个本书中提到的投资最基本的理念。
巴菲特的恩师格雷厄姆倡导做“有价值的投资”，调查股票市场上人们对哪些企业评价过低，也就是说，看一下哪些企业的内在价值实际上要比股票市场给它定的价值要大得多。
巴菲特2024股东大会发言实录中文译本20240504
巴菲特2024股东大会发言实录中文译本2024年巴菲特股东大会刚落下帷幕，伯克希尔-哈撒韦董事长兼CEO巴菲特如约与四万余名参会股东，其中包括数千名来自中国的投资人面对面交流。
93岁的巴菲特在近六个小时的问答环节中，和公司高管格雷格·阿贝尔、阿吉特·贾恩共同回答了各界投资人34个问题，涉及科技股、国际市场、能源投资、生成式AI、保险业务、人生最高价值等各个方面。
依照惯例，问答之前巴菲特介绍了当天早间发布的伯克希尔2024年第一季度的财报，他指出，过去的季度不能说它是我们最棒的一个季度，但是也不能说是最差的一个季度，任何的事情在保险界来讲都是会有幸运的时候，也有完全不能考虑的季度，但是身处保险业，伯克希尔绝对会努力改善进步的。
此外，巴菲特告诉大家，公司现在可以投资的钱还是比以前要更多，这是现在的一个现象。
巴菲特觉得这是合理的，在可预测的未来还会维持这种状况。
以下是巴菲特2024股东大会发言实录中文译本巴菲特：大家早，谢谢大家今天来到现场。
我旁边是格雷格·阿贝尔，是负责除了保险业务之外的伯克希尔副CEO，在格雷格旁边是我们负责保险业务的阿吉特·贾恩。
我们现场还有非常多的董事们，也请大家简短地起立，会场前面有霍华德·巴菲特，苏珊·巴菲特，史帝夫·伯尔克、肯·硕克、克利斯·戴维斯、罗勒·艾曼斯、劳尔·艾尔森，这些都是公司的董事会成员。
这中间还有两位我要特别致谢的，在我们开始之前，我先简单地介绍一下。
首先，我要先感谢莫利萨，今天我们所有的大会都是归功于她。
她刚刚跟我进行了报告，说我们今天会议又创了新的记录，今天我们的喜诗糖果，我想现在卖的数量可能是比以前卖得更多，已经有6吨之多了。
我要跟大家介绍下面这位，这位，也就是他把刚刚看的纪录片整合在一起的，你可以想象今天所有的一些场景以及过去曾经经历过的路途，他都参与了，我们中间还有一些好莱坞的大明星们，以及各种各样的不同的人参与其中。
巴菲特一生最经典的演讲：过去的就让他过去,人生只能向前看
巴菲特一生最经典的演讲：过去的就让他过去，人生只能向前看1998年，巴菲特在佛罗里达大学商学院做了一个超有内涵的演讲。
有读者说，这是巴菲特最经典的演讲，没有之一~“请各位提问时一定要刁钻。
你们问的问题越难，才越好玩。
”巴菲特在演讲之前是这样要求的，但他自己提的问题就有够刁钻，“假如可以从认识的人中选一个，买入他今后一生10% 的收入，你会选谁？”以下是演讲原文，经典值得珍藏，欢迎转发分享。
巴菲特在佛罗里达大学商学院的演讲1998年10月15日巴菲特：(手持麦克风)测试，1百万、2百万、3百万。
我先简单说几句，把大部分时间留下来回答大家的问题。
我想聊聊大家关心的话题。
请各位提问的时候一定要刁钻。
你们问的问题越难，才越好玩。
什么都可以问，就是不能问上个月我交了多少税，这个问题我无可奉告。
各位同学，你们毕业之后未来会怎样？我简单说说我的想法。
各位在这所大学能学到大量关于投资的知识，你们将拥有成功所需的知识。
既然各位能坐在这里，你们也拥有成功所需的智商，你们还有成功所需的拼劲。
你们大多数人都会成功地实现自己的理想。
但是最后你到底能否成功，不只取决于你的头脑和勤奋。
我简单讲一下这个道理。
奥马哈有个叫彼得·基威特的人，他说他招人的时候看三点：品行、头脑和勤奋。
他说一个人要是头脑聪明、勤奋努力，但品行不好，肯定是个祸害。
品行不端的人，最好又懒又蠢。
我知道各位都头脑聪明、勤奋努力，所以我今天只讲品行。
为了更好地思考这个问题，我们不妨一起做个游戏。
各位都是MBA二年级的学生，应该很了解自己周围的同学了。
假设现在你可以选一个同学，买入他今后一生之内10% 的收入。
你不能选富二代，只能选靠自己奋斗的人。
请各位仔细想一下，你会选班里的哪位同学，买入他今后一生之内10% 的收入。
你会给所有同学做个智商测试，选智商最高的吗？未必。
你会选考试成绩最高的吗？未必。
你会选最有拼劲的吗？不一定。
因为大家都很聪明，也都很努力，我觉得你会主要考虑定性方面的因素。
巴菲特三大经典演讲之二——1998年佛罗里达大学商学院演讲
巴菲特1998年佛罗里达大学MBA讲座及英语演讲视频（中英文本）这个视频是1998年巴菲特在佛罗里达大学给MBA学生做的一个讲座，不知为何在网上又被转载起来，视频因为录制得比较早，视频效果不好，但希望中英文对照的文稿能弥补这一缺点。
巴菲特其实口才非常不错，并不是说他能讲出多少“硬货”，而是他能够把最重要的投资哲理用非常通俗易懂的比喻来告诉大家，让即使对财务分析、市盈率等黑话一窍不通的人，所以读巴菲特写的东西一点都不累。
半瓶子才能晃出声响，真正大师的话是非常简单却富有哲理的。
在这片篇超级长的演讲稿里，不但讲了投资理念，还包括了面对工作机做人的态度，耐心读完的朋友，相信一定收获颇丰。
中英对照文本：Buffett: (holds mike) Testing: One million $, two million $….three million $. I would like to say a few words primarily and then the highlight for me will be getting your questions. I want to talk about what is on your mind.巴菲特：话筒测试，100万美元，200万美元.....300万美元。
我想先讲几分钟的套话，然后我就主要来接受你们的提问。
我想谈的是你们的所思所想。
我鼓励你们给我出难题，畅所欲言，言无不尽。
I urge you to throw hard balls, it’s more fun for me if you follow speed and speeches come in end. You can ask anything about except footbal l game last week in A&M, that’s out of limits. We have come here for some from Sun Trust, I have just attend the top meeting and I sat next to Jim·Williams who runs Sun Trust for many years and he wanted to be sure that I wear this Sun Trust shirt down here.我希望你们扔些高难度的球，如果你们的投球带些速度的话，我回答起来会更有兴致.你们几乎可以问任何问题，除了上个礼拜的Texas A & M的大学橄榄球赛，那超出我所能接受的极限了。
巴菲特的演讲(Buffett's speech)
巴菲特的演讲（Buffett's speech）Buffett's speech at the University of Florida Business SchoolAuthor: Warren Buffet | translator: easy Xiaolan translator:The translation here is not an article, but a Video. To be exact, Warrent Buffet (Buffett) at University ofA speech at the Florida business school. In his speech, Buffett talked about investing and talking about life, which made translators benefit a lot. Turn it out here to attract readers.It was a 1.5 hour speech and it really took a lot of work to turn it out. It is hard to do it overnight, but I'm afraid I'll have to serialize it here. Forgive me.(I)I want to talk about a few minutes and then I mainly to cliches, take your questions. What I want to talk about is what you think.I encourage you to give me a problem, you can speak freely. I want you to throw up some difficult balls, and if you give me a bit of speed, I'll be more interested. You can ask almost any questions, except for last week's TexasA&M's college football game, that's beyond my limit. We've got a few SunTrust here. I just finished CocaCola's stockholders' meeting: Warren Buffet's investment firm is CocaOne of Cola's long-term major shareholders, I sat on Jimmy Williams Ben. Jimmy led SunTrust for many years. Jimmy must let me put on this SunTrust T shirt and come here. I always try to make the old Golf Federation to my sponsors, but failed. I didn't think I was in SunTrust, but I did a good job. Jimmy said, "based on the growth of SunTrust deposits, I will get a certain percentage of the reward.". So I was up SunTrust. (Buffett is joking.)I just want to talk to the students for a minute about your future after you leave school. You have learned a lot of knowledge of the investment here, you learn how to do things, you have enough IQ to do, you have the power and energy to do, otherwise you wouldn't be here. Many of you will finally realize your ideals. But beyond intelligence and energy, there's more to decide if you're successful, and I want to talk about those things. Actually, in our Omaha, BerkshireHathaway company headquarters) a gentleman said that when he hired people, he would look at three aspects: integrity, intelligence, and energy. Hiring a man with intelligence and energy without integrity will ruin the hired man. A man without integrity, you can only hope that he is stupid and lazy, not smart and energetic. I want to talk about the first point, because I know you both have the last two points.In considering this question, please join me in this game. You are now in MBA for second years, so you should know all about your classmates. Now I give you one to buy 10% of one of your classmates right until the end of his life. You can't choose those who have rich fathers. Everyone's efforts depend on hisown efforts. I'll give you an hour to think about this question, which student would you like to buy for 10% of the rest of your life?. Would you give them an IQ test and pick the one with the highest IQ value? I suspect it! Will you pick the best one? I doubt it, too. You don't necessarily choose the most energetic one, because you're already motivated. You might be looking for quality factors, because everyone here has a lot of brainsAfter an hour of thinking, when you bet, you may choose the person you most identify with, the person with the most leadership ability, the one who realizes the benefit of others, the generosity, the honesty,Even his own ideas will give credit to others. All these qualities, you can write down the qualities you admire. (whom would you choose) the person you admire most?.Then, I am here to give you a Ban. When you buy 10% of your classmates, you have to sell another 10%. Isn't that interesting? Who do you think I'm selling? You might still not find IQLowest. You may choose the classmate that annoys you, and the qualities that make you dislike it. The one you don't want to deal with, and someone else who doesn't want to deal with it. What qualities have led to that? You can think of a bunch of things, such as dishonesty, love, petty, and so on. You can write them down in the right column of the paper. When you look at the left and right columns of the paper, you'll find something interesting.Whether the football thrown 60 yards is not important, whether it can run 100 yards in 9 seconds in 3 days is not important, it is the best looking person in the class. What really matters is the quality of those on the left column of the paper. You can have all those qualities if you want. The qualities of action, temper, and character are all possible. They are not beyond the reach of each of us present. Look at all those qualities you hate in the right column. None of them is what you have to ask for.You can get rid of it if you have one. At your age, it's much easier to change than at my age, because most of these behaviors are gradually fixed. It is said that the chains of habit are so light that they cannot be felt. Once you feel it, it is too heavy to be removed. I think it's quite right. I've seen a lot of my age, or 10 younger than mePeople 20 years of age have self destructive habits and are unable to extricate themselves. They hate people wherever they go. They don't need that, but they're hopeless.However, at your age, any habit and mode of conduct can be, and as long as you wish, it is only a matter of choice. Like Benjamin Gram (a famous financier mid last century), when he was a teenager, he looks at those respectable, he wanted me to be a respected person, why I don't like those people do? He found it impossible to do that. He rejected the unpleasant qualities in the opposite way. So I said, if you put those qualities all down, ponder, follow, you will be the one you want to buy 10% people! Better yet, you own 100% of yourself. That's what I'm going to talk about today.Now let's start by talking about what you're interested in. We can start with hands raised from here or there.(two)Question: what do you think of Japan?Buffett: I'm not too macro. Now, 10 years of interest on loans in Japan is only 1%. I said to myself, 45 years ago, I went to Benjamin. Gram's course, then I have been diligent, hard work, maybe I should earn more than 1%? It doesn't seem impossible.I don't want to be involved in any risk of currency fluctuations, so I would choose assets based on yen, such as real estate or business, that must be domestic. The only thing I need to do is to make more than 1%, because that's the cost of my money. But until now, I haven't found a business that I can invest in.It's really interesting. Japanese companies have very low asset returns. They have a few businesses that will have 4%, 5%, or 6% returns. If Japanese companies do not make much money themselves, then their asset investors can hardly get good returns. Of course, some people make money, too.I have a friend who worked for Benjamin Gram for the same period. That was the first time I bought stocks, looking for companies that had a lower stock price than liquid capital, a very cheap but a little quality company.I call it the "cigar butt" approach to investing. You areeverywhere to seek the cigar, finally you find a wet, a hate cigarette smoke pot can look. That one is free. You pick it up, take the last bite, then throw it, and then find the next one. It doesn't sound elegant at all, but if you're looking for a free cigar, it's worth it.Don't make the low rate of return business. Time is a friend in business, but enemy in bad business. If you get stuck in a bad business for too long, your results will be bad, even if your buying price is very cheap.If you're in a good business, even if you start paying a little extra cost, if you do it long enough, your returns will be considerable. I don't find any good business from Japan now. It is also possible that Japanese culture will make some changes, for example, their management may be more responsible for the company's stock, so that the return rate will be higher. But now, all I see is some of the low rate of return, even when the high-speed development of the Japanese economy. It's also surprising, because a big, perfect market in Japan doesn't produce good, high returns. Japan's excellence is only in the aggregate economy, not in the quality of the company. This problem has caused trouble for japan. We haven't had much interest in Japan so far. As long as the interest rate is 1%, we will continue to take a wait-and-see attitude.Question: rumor has it that you have become a buyer of the long term fund management fund? What did you do there? What opportunities did you see?Buffett: in a recent article on Fortune magazine (cover ReubenMurdoch), it tells the whole story. I little interesting。
巴菲特的一次演讲
巴菲特的一次演讲译者序：这里翻译的不是一篇文章,而是一个Video.确切的说,是Warrent Buffet在University of Florida商学院的一次.在演讲里,谈投资,谈做人,使译者受益匪浅.在这里翻出来以嗜读者.这是一次一个半小时的,翻出来着实要费些功夫.一蹴而就比较难做到,这里恐怕只好做连载了.见谅.一我想先讲几分钟的套话,然后我就主要来接受你们的提问.我想谈的是你们的所思所想.我鼓励你们给我出难题,畅所欲言,言无不尽.原文：我希望你们扔些高难度的球,如果你们的投球带些速度的话,我回答起来会更有兴致你们几乎可以问任何问题,除了上个礼拜的Texas A&M的大学橄榄球赛,那超出我所能接受的极限了.我们这里来了几个SunTrust译者注：美国一家大型商业银行的人.我刚刚参加完Coca Cola的股东大会译者注：Warren Buffet的公司是Coca Cola的长期大股东之一,我坐在吉米●威廉姆斯边上.吉米领导了SunTrust多年.吉米一定让我穿上这件SunTrust的T恤到这来.我一直试着让老年高尔夫联盟给我赞助,但是都无功而返.没想到我在SunTrust这,却做的不错.吉米说,基于SunTrust存款的增长,我会得到一定比例的酬劳.所以我为SunTrust鼓劲.译者注：在开玩笑你们走出校门后的前程,我在这里只想讲一分钟.你们在这里已经学了很多方面的知识,你们学会如何做好事情,你们有足够的IQ能做好,你们也有动力和精力来做好,否则你们就不会在这里了.你们中的许多人都将最终实现你们的理想.但是在智能和能量之外,还有更多的东西来决定你是否成功,我想谈谈那些东西.实际上,在我们Omaha译者注：Berkshire Hathaway公司的总部所在地有一位先生说,当他雇人时,他会看三个方面：诚信,智能,和精力.雇一个只有智能和精力,却没有诚信的人会毁了雇者.一个没有诚信的人,你只能希望他愚蠢和懒惰,而不是聪明和精力充沛.我想谈的是第一点,因为我知道你们都具备后两点.在考虑这个问题时,请你们和我一起玩玩这个游戏.你们现在都是在MBA的第二年,所以你们对自己的同学也应该都了解了.现在我给你们一个来买进10％的你的一个同学的权利,一直到他的生命结束.你不能选那些有着富有老爸的同学,每个人的成果都要靠他自己的努力.我给你一个小时来想这个问题,你愿意买进哪一个同学余生的10％.你会给他们做一个IQ测试吗,选那个IQ值最高的我很怀疑.你会挑那个学习成绩最好的吗,我也怀疑.你也不一定会选那个最精力充沛的,因为你自己本身就已经动力十足了.你可能会去寻找那些质化的因素,因为这里的每个人都是很有脑筋的.你想了一个小时之后,当你下赌注时,可能会选择那个你最有认同感的人,那个最有领导才能的人,那个能实现他人利益的人,那个慷慨,诚实,即使是他自己的主意,也会把功劳分予他人的人.所有这些素质,你可以把这些你所钦佩的素质都写下来.你会选择那个你最钦佩的人.然后,我这里再给你们下个跘儿.在你买进10％你的同学时,你还要卖出10％的另外一个人.这不是很有趣吗你会想我到底卖谁呢你可能还是不会找IQ最低的.你可能会选那个让你厌恶的同学,以及那些令你讨厌的品质.那个你不愿打交道的人,其他人也不愿意与之打交道的人.是什么品质导致了那一点呢你能想出一堆来,比如不够诚实,爱占小便宜等等这些,你可以把它们写在纸的右栏.当你端详纸的左栏和右栏时,会发现有意思的一点.能否将橄榄球扔出60码之外并不重要,是否能在9秒3之内跑100码也不重要,是否是班上最好看的也无关大局.真正重要的是那些在纸上左栏里的品质.如果你愿意的话,你可以拥有所有那些品质.那些行动,脾气,和性格的品质,都是可以做到的.它们不是我们在座的每一位力所不能及的.再看看那些右栏里那些让你厌恶的品质,没有一项是你不得不要的.如果你有的话,你也可以改掉.在你们这个年纪,改起来比在我这个年纪容易得多,因为大多数这些行为都是逐渐固定下来的.人们都说习惯的枷锁开始轻得让人感受不到,一旦你感觉到的时候,已经是沉重得无法去掉了.我认为说得很对.我见过很多我这个年纪或者比我还年轻10岁,20岁的人,有着自我破坏性习惯而又难以自拔,他们走到哪里都招人厌恶.他们不需要那样,但是他们已经无可救药.但是,在你们这个年纪,任何习惯和行为模式都可以有,只要你们愿意,就只是一个选择的问题.就象本杰明●格拉姆上个世纪中叶着名的金融家一样,在他还是十几岁的少年时,他四顾看看那些令人尊敬的人,他想我也要做一个被人尊敬的人,为什么我不象那些人一样行事呢他发现那样去做并不是不可能的.他对那些令人讨厌的品质采取了与此相反的方式而加以摒弃.所以我说,如果你把那些品质都写下来,好好思量一下,择善而从,你自己可能就是那个你愿意买入10％的人更好的是你自己本就100％的拥有你自己了.这就是我今天要讲的.下面就让我们开始谈谈你们所感兴趣的.我们可以从这儿或那儿举起的手开始.二问题：你对日本的看法巴菲特：我不是一个太宏观的人.现在日本10年期的贷款利息只有1％.我对自己说,45年前,我上了本杰明.格拉姆的课程,然后我就一直勤勤恳恳,努力工作,也许我应该比1％挣的多点吧看上去那不是不可能的.我不想卷入任何汇率波动的风险,所以我会选择以日元为基准的资产,如地产或企业,必须是日本国内的.我唯一需要做的就是挣得比1％多,因为那是我资金的成本.可直到现在,我还没有发现一家可以投资的生意.这真的很有趣.日本企业的资产回报率都很低.他们有少数企业会有4％,5％,或6％的回报.如果日本企业本身赚不了多少钱的话,那么其资产投资者是很难获得好的回报的.当然,有一些人也赚了钱.我有一个同期为本杰明.格拉姆工作过的朋友.那是我第一次买股票的方法,即寻找那些股票价格远低于流动资本的公司,非常便宜但又有一点素质的公司.我管那方法叫雪茄烟蒂投资法.你满地找雪茄烟蒂,终于你找到一个湿透了的,令人讨厌的烟蒂,看上去还能抽上一口.那一口可是免费的.你把它捡起来,抽上最后一口,然后扔了,接着找下一个.这听上去一点都不优雅,但是如果你找的是一口免费的雪茄烟,这方法还值得做.不要做低回报率的生意.时间是好生意的朋友,却是坏生意的敌人.如果你陷在糟糕的生意里太久的话,你的结果也一定会糟糕,即使你的买入价很便宜.如果你在一桩好生意里,即使你开始多付了一点额外的成本,如果你做的足够久的话,你的回报一定是可观的.我现在从日本没发现什么好生意.也可能日本的文化会作某些改变,比如他们的可能会对公司股票的责任多一些,这样回报率会高些.但目前来看,我看到的都是一些低回报率的公司,即使是在日本经济高速发展的时候.说来也令人惊奇,因为日本这样一个完善巨大的市场却不能产生一些优秀的高回报的公司.日本的优秀只体现在经济总量上,而不是涌现一些优质的公司.这个问题已经给日本带来麻烦了.我们到现在为止对日本还是没什么兴趣.只要那的利息还是1％,我们会继续持观望态度.问题：有传闻说,你成为长期资金管理基金的救场买家你在那里做了什么你看到了什么机会巴菲特：在最近的一篇财富杂志封面是鲁本.默多克上的文章里讲了事情的始末.有点意思.是一个冗长的故事,我这里就不介绍来龙去脉了.我接了一个非常慎重的长期资金管理基金的电话.那是一个星期五的下午吧.我孙女的生日Party在那个傍晚.在之后的晚上,我会飞到西雅图,参加比尔.盖茨的一个12天的阿拉斯加的私人旅程.所以我那时是一点准备都没有的.于是星期五我接了这个电话,整个事情变得严重起来.在财富的文章发表之前,我还通了其他一些相关电话.我认识他们译者注：长期资金管理基金的人,他们中的一些人我还很熟.很多人都在所罗门兄弟公司工作过.事情很关键.美联储周末派了人过去译者注：纽约.在星期五到接下来的周三这段时间里,纽约储备局导演了没有联邦资金卷入的长期资金管理基金的救赎.我很活跃.但是我那时的身体状况很不好,因为我们那时正在阿拉斯加的一些峡谷里航行,而我对那些峡谷毫无兴趣.船长说我们朝着可以看到北极熊的方向航行,我告诉船长朝着可以稳定接收到卫星信号的方向航行才是重要的译者注：巴菲特在开玩笑,意思是他在船上,却一直心系手边的工作.星期三的早上,我们出了一个报价.那时,我已经在蒙塔那译者注：美国西北部的一个州了.我和纽约储备局的头儿通了话.他们在10点会和一批银行家碰头.我把意向传达过去了.纽约储备局在10点前给在怀俄明译者注：美国西北部的一个州的我打了电话.我们做了一个报价.那确实只是一个大概的报价,因为我是在远程不可能完善细节性的东西.最终,我们对亿美元的净资产做了报价,但我们会在那之上追加30到亿左右.Berkshire Hathaway巴菲特的投资公司分到30个亿, AIG有7个亿, Goldman Sachs有3个亿.我们把投标交了上去,但是我们的投标时限很短,因为你不可能对价值以亿元计的证券在一段长时间内固定价格,我也担心我们的报价会被用来作待价而沽的筹码.最后,银行家们把合同搞定了.那是一个有意思的时期.整个长期资金管理基金的历史,我不知道在座的各位对它有多熟悉,其实是波澜壮阔的.如果你把那16个人,象John Meriwether, Eric Rosenfeld,Larry Hilibrand,Greg Hawkins, Victor Haghani,还有两个诺贝尔经济学奖的获得者,Myron Scholes和Robert乓欢ɑ嵩龀ぁＮ也蝗衔狿&G的主要产品有可乐这样的统治力,有这样的消费量增长率,但是P&G依旧是好公司.即使我可能会更中意其他一些公司,但是那样的公司凤毛麟角.问题：麦当劳的20年前景如何巴菲特：麦当劳的情况里,许多因素都起作用,特别是海外的因素.麦当劳在海外的处境比在美国国内要强势一些.这个生意随着时间的推移,会越来越难.人们,那些等着派发礼物的孩子除外,不愿每天都吃麦当劳.喝可乐的人,今天喝五罐,明天可能还会喝五罐.快餐业比这要艰难得多.但是,如果你一定要在快餐业里,世界范围里这个行业规模是巨大的,选择一家的话,你会选麦当劳.它有着最好的定位.虽然对小孩子虽是美味,对成人而言它却不是最好吃的.近来,它进入了用降价来促销的领域,而不是靠产品本身来销售.我个人更中意那些靠产品本身就卖钱的公司.在这一点上,我更喜欢吉列.人们不是因为还有一些附送的小礼品而买Mark 3.在本质上,吉列的产品更强势些.Berkshire拥有很多吉列的股票.当你想到几十亿的男人脸上每天每夜长出的子,更好的是,还有女人的两条腿,你晚上的睡眠一定会很香甜.那才是你要的生意.如果你想的是下个月我要用什么降价策略来压制汉堡王译者注：Berger King,如果它们和迪斯尼签了协议,而我却没有...等等.我偏爱那些独立的产品,不需要做降价促销这些噱头来让它更有吸引力.虽然你可以用那些伎俩来做好生意,比如,麦当劳就是一个非常优秀的企业,但它终究不像可乐那样,像可乐那样的几乎也没有.如果你一定要在那个领域买一家企业,就买奶酪皇后吧我是开玩笑的,还是买麦当劳吧.一段时间以前,Berkshire买了奶酪皇后,所以我在这儿给奶酪皇后不知羞耻地做广告笑.问题：你对能源基础行业的公司怎么看巴菲特：我考虑了很久了,因为这方面的投资要花很多钱的.我甚至考虑过要彻底买下一个公司.我们Omaha公司总部的一个人员通过CalEnergy 译者注：一家位于Omaha的地热能源公司做了一些投资.但是,对于能源行业在的调控下究竟会如何发展,我还不是太懂.我看到了一些因素对高成本的企业在曾经的垄断地域是如何的具有破坏性.我不确信哪家会因而得益,程度又是如何等等.当然,不同的能源企业的成本会有高有低.水利发电的成本是每千瓦2分钱,它们的优势就非同小可了.但是在它们所产出的电力里,它们自己能保留多少,它们又可以把多少电力发送到区外,我还没想通.所以,对于这个行业未来十年的情况,我还看不清.译者注：在美国,发电公司的电力交易和定价并不完全是市场行为,而是有做管理调控的但这的确是一个我一直以来不断考量的行业.一旦我理出些头绪,我会付诸的.我晓得产品的吸引力,各个方面用户需要的确定性,还有现在这些公司的价钱可能很便宜,等等.我只是不确定在未来的十年里,谁会从中赚大钱,所以我还处于观望的态度.问题：为什么资本市场更青睐大型企业,而不是小型企业巴菲特：我们不在乎企业的大小,是巨型,大型,小型,还是微型.企业的大小无所谓.真正重要的因素是,我们对企业,对生意懂多少；是否是我们看好的人在管理它们；产品的卖价是否具有竞争力.从我自己管理Berkshire的经验来看,我需要将从General Re带来的750到800个亿的保费进行投资.我只能投资5桩生意,我的投资因而就只局限于那些大公司.如果我只有10万块,我是不会在乎所投资企业的大小的,只要我懂得它们的生意就行.在我看来,总体而言,大企业过去十年来表现非常杰出,甚至远远超过人们的预期.没人能预计到美国公司的资产收益率能接近于20％.这主要归功于特大型公司.由于较低的利息率,和高得多的资产回报率,对这些公司的评估也必然会显着的上调.如果把美国公司假想成收益率20％的债券,比起收益率13％的债券自然是好得多.这是近些年来确实发生的情况,是否会一直如此,那是另外一个问题.我个人对此表示怀疑.除了我所管理资金多少的因素,我不会在乎企业的大小.See’s Candy在我们买它时,还只是一个年收入二千五百万的生意.如果我们现在还能找到一个类似的,即使按照我们公司现在的运作规模,我也乐于买下它.我认为是那些令人确信的因素才真正重要.问题：在过去的五年里,不动产业的主流都是私有的.你对不动产业的证券化有何高见巴菲特：巨大的不动产业债务的证券化的确是近来资本市场里的一个疑难症结.以房屋贷款为基础的证券了无生气.我指的是商业房贷,而不是居民房贷.我想你的问题是资产证券化方面的.拥有公司是一种很不好的拥有资产的方式.如果你把公司收入税摊派给个人,因而个人就可以只交纳一种税.如果是常规的公司形式,人们被迫两次缴税译者注：一次公司,一次个人.在不动产业,你不需要那样做的,真那样的话回报上会因缴税而受很大的影响.REIT译者注：专门投资不动产业的共同基金,公司税率很低,但主要盈利都要派发给股东, 巧妙避开了法律的规定,因而人们不需要两次缴纳.但是它们的管理费用也很高.如果你进入不动产业,举例讲你如果买最简单的REIT,每年有8％的收益,除去1％或％的费用后,所得也不是那么有吸引力了.对只有千把块钱或5千块钱的投资,可能还可以.但是如果是百万级的投资,直接去买不动产可能更划算些,这样你能避免在中间人上可观的开销.在不动产领域,我们鲜有令人激动的发现.看到一些特大型的地产公司,有些人可能会有些迷惑,我在这里试着不冒犯在座的各位,这里举一个例子,得克萨斯太平洋土地基金,这个有着百年历史的公司,在得克萨斯州有着几百万公顷的土地,每年卖掉1％的土地,并以那为基准,得出一个比市场行情高得多的估价.我认为,如果你是土地的拥有者,那样的估价是毫无道理的.你不可能交易50％,甚至是20％的土地,这比流动性很差的股票还要差得多.我认为对许多不动产公司的估价都是愚蠢的,都是那些不曾拥有土地的人或是想卖出大量土地套现的人的伎俩.REIT基金今年的市场表现很不好,这个你们可能都知道.不难想象它们将会变成没人要的一类,同你的不动产卖价相比,它们会以很大的折扣贱卖.事情会变得很有趣.因为接下来的问题是REIT基金的是否会同你斗争到底,因为卖出不动产的过程中他们不得不放弃管理物业的收入.他们的实际利益同股东的正好相反.我总是在想,REIT基金一直在鼓吹他们优秀的不动产和廉价的股票,而却在市场上卖股票,比如他们说28块钱的股票很便宜了,他们却在28元以下卖股票,这显然是自相矛盾的.但是,我们还是在关注着这一块.我们懂得这个行业,在不同的时段,我们会考虑进行一些特大笔的交易.如果有长期资金管理公司的事件在不动产领域里发生了,我们会敞开胸怀的.问题是其他许多人也会纷至沓来的,所以出现让我们兴奋的价格的可能性并不大.问题：据我的理解,在你的理论里,熊市对抄底买家是很有利的.你是如何预计,在一个走下坡路的市场里,你的长期性盈利状况呢巴菲特：对于大市的走势,我一无所知.虽然我的偏好无足轻重,但是我希望它向下调整.市场对我的感情是无暇顾及的笑.这是在你学习股票时,首要了解的一点.如果你买了100股通用汽车之后,对通用一下子充满了感情.当它降价时,你变得暴躁,怨天尤人；当它攀升时,你沾沾自喜,自以为聪明,对通用也是喜爱有加.你变得如此情绪化.但是,股票却不晓得谁买了它.股票只是一个物质存在而已,它并不在乎谁拥有了它,又花了多少钱,等等.我对市场的感情是不会有一丝回报的.我们这里靠的是一个异常冰冷的肩膀笑.未来10年里,在座的每个人可能都是股票的净买家,而不是净卖家,所以每人都应该盼着更低的股价.未来10年里,你们肯定是汉堡包的大吃家,所以你盼着更便宜的汉堡包,除非你是养牛“专业户”.如果你现在还不拥有可口可乐的股票,你又希望买一些,你一定盼着可乐的股价走低.你盼着超市在周末大甩卖,而不是涨价.纽约证交所就如同公司的超市.你知道自己要买股票,那么你盼着什么好事呢,你恨不得股价都跳水,越深越好,这样你就可以拣到些便宜货了.20年以后,30年以后,当你退休开始要支取养命钱了,或者你的后代支取你的养命钱时笑,你也许会希望股价能高点.在格拉姆的“智慧的投资者”一书中的第8章,描述了对待股票市场上下波动的态度,以及第20章中讲到了安全边际效应的问题,我认为是所有描写投资的着述中最好的两篇.因为当我在19岁读到第8章时,我恍然大悟.我领悟到了上面涉及的心得.看上去它们显而易见,但我从前没有体会过.如果不是那文章里的解释,恐怕过了100年,我还在盼着股价节节高呢.我们希望股票降价,但是我并不晓得股票市场会有如何的走势.恐怕我永远也不会.我甚至想都不去想这些事情.当股市真的走低时,我会很用心的研究我要买些什么,因为我相信到那时我可以更高效地使用手上的资金.这时主持人插嘴过来,说下面的问题将是最后一个问题了.巴菲特马上笑着说,好,你就帮我选那个最后的幸运儿吧.你也可以选自己.笑最后一个问题：如果你有幸再重新活一次的话,你会去做些什么,让你的生活更快乐巴菲特：这听上去有点让人反胃.我也许会从活到120岁的那群人的基因池中做个选择吧笑.我认为我自己是罕见的幸运.让我在这里花上一到二分钟讲个例子,也许值得我们好好想想.让我们做这样一个假设,在你出生的24小时以前,一个先知来到你的身边.他说,“小家伙,你看上去很不错,我这里有个难题,我要设计一个你将要生活的世界.如果是我设计的话,太难了,不如你自己来设计吧.所以,在24小时以内,你要设计出所有那些社交规范,经济规范,还有管理规范等等.你会生活在那样一个世界里,你的孩子们会生活在那样一个世界里,孩子们的孩子们会生活在那样一个世界里.”你问先知,“是由我来设计一切吗”先知回答说是.你反问,“那这里肯定有什么陷阱”.先知说,“是的,是有一个陷阱.你不知道自己是黑是白,是富是穷,是男是女,体弱多病还是身体强健,聪明还是愚笨...你能做的就是从装着65亿球的大篮子里选一个代表你的小球”.我管这游戏叫子宫里的彩票.这也许是决定你命运的事件,因为这将决定你出生在美国还是阿富汗,有着130的IQ 还是70,总之这将决定太多太多的东西.如何设计这个你即将降生到的世界呢我认为这是一个思考问题的好方法.当你对即将得到的那个球毫不知情时,你会把系统设计得能够提供大量的物品和服务,你会希望人们心态平衡,生活富足,同时系统能源源不绝地产出物品和服务,这样你的子子孙孙能活得更好.而且对那些不幸选错了球,没有接对线路的人们,这个系统也不会亏待他们.在这个系统里,我绝对是接对了路,找到了自己的位置.我降生后,人们让我来分配资金.这活本身也并不出彩.假设我们都被仍在了一个荒岛上,谁都走不出来,那么在那个岛上,最有价值的人一定是稻谷收获最多的人.如果我说,我能分配资金,估计不会招什么人待敬.我是在合适的时间来到了合适的地方.盖茨说如果我出生在几百万年前,权当了那些野兽的鱼肉耳.我跑不快,又不会爬树,我什么事也干不了.他说,出生在当代是你的幸运.我确实是幸运的.时不时地,你可以自问一下,这里有个装着65亿小球的篮子,世界上的每个人都在这里；有人随机取出另外100个小球来,你可以再选一个球,但是你必须把你现有的球放回去,你会放回去吗100个取出的小球里,大约5个是美国人吧,95个不是.如果你想留在这个国家,你能选的就只有5个球.一半是男生,一半是女生,一半是高智商,一半是低智商.你愿意把你现在的小球放回去吗你们中的大多数不会为了那一百个球而把你自己的球放回去.所以,你们是世界上最幸运的1％,至少现在是这样.这正是我的感受.一路走来,我是如此幸运.在我出生的时候,出生在美国的比率只有50比1.我幸运有好的父母,在很多事情上我都得到幸运女神的眷顾...幸运地出生在一个对我报酬如此丰厚的市场经济里,对那些和我一样是好公民的人们,那些领着童子军的人们,周日教书的人们,养育幸福的家庭.它们可能在报酬上未必如我,但也并不需要像我一样呀.我真的非常幸运,所以,我盼着我还能继续幸运下去.如果我幸运的话,那个小球游戏给我带来的只有珍惜,做一些我一生都喜欢做的事情,并和那些我欣赏的人交朋友.我只同那些我欣赏的人做生意.如果同一个令我反胃的人合作能让我赚一个亿,那么我宁愿不做.这就如同为了金钱而结成的婚姻一般,无论在何种条件下,都很荒唐,更何况我已经富有了.我是不会为了金钱而成婚的.所以,如果我有机会重新来过的话我可能还会去做我做过的每一件事情,当然,购买USAir除外.谢谢。
巴菲特三大经典演讲稿原文
巴菲特三大经典演讲稿原文
尊敬的各位领导、各位来宾，大家好：
我很高兴能够在这里和大家分享一些我的投资心得和经验。
我相信，这些经验
不仅仅适用于投资领域，也可以在生活中发挥重要作用。
首先，我想谈谈关于投资的第一点，那就是要有长远的眼光。
在投资的过程中，我们不能只看眼前的利益，而是要考虑到长期的收益。
这就好比是种树，虽然种下去可能需要很长时间才能看到成果，但只有坚持不懈地投入，才能最终收获硕果。
其次，我认为投资需要有足够的耐心。
市场波动时常存在，但我们不能因为短
期的波动而盲目行动。
耐心等待，耐心观察，才能找到真正的投资机会。
正如我曾经说过的一句话，“当别人贪婪时，我恐惧；当别人恐惧时，我贪婪。
”这就是要求我们在市场波动时保持冷静，不要被情绪左右。
最后，我要强调的是要对自己有足够的信心。
在投资的过程中，我们需要不断
学习，不断提升自己的能力。
只有不断地积累知识和经验，才能更好地应对市场的变化。
同时，我们也要相信自己的判断和决策，不要被外界的声音左右，坚定自己的投资理念。
总的来说，投资是一门需要长期积累和不断学习的艺术。
我们需要有长远的眼光，耐心等待，同时对自己有足够的信心。
只有这样，我们才能在投资的道路上走得更远，取得更大的成功。
谢谢大家！。
哥大商学院演讲(巴菲特)
知道的越多，对投资越有利。任何对公司所处行业产生影响的因素，都会对你有帮助，包括政治、科技、甚至文学艺术作品。总会在某一时点，你看到其他投资者没有注意到的东西。百科辞典式的知识总能够在跨行业投资者发挥作用。
正如查理芒格所说，人的一生不会有很多真知灼见，只有不断学习才可以获得。选择美国的一个行业，可能是已经研究15 年的行业，然后在亚洲地区找到同样的行业，相当于你可以在这些行业的初级阶段介入，当然前提是彻底了解这样的行业，才能把握每一个转折点，从而获得超高收益。
我入行时，赶上了亚洲金融危机，几年后是互联网泡沫，最近又是一轮金融危机。本来百年一遇的危机，现在爆发频率越来越高。每一次灾难来临，你的市值都可能损失50%以上，这时你需要有足够的自信，不被他人影响。这也许不容易，但生活如此。巴郡公司历史上至少有3 次股票都是拦腰斩断，卡内基也遇到过这种情况，洛克菲勒也遇到过，每个人都遇到过，这至少证明你没有犯错误，因为在这样的行情下，如果犯错，你的损失不是50%，而是全部毁掉。
问：成为。。。和对冲基金经理有什么不同？
答：。。。。BYD 就是在帮助中国和美国这样的国家走出过去靠碳排放发展的时代。全球变暖关系到每个人，所以BYD 对每个人都作出了重要贡献。美国历史上贡献了很多发明，现在一家来自中国的企业将通过廉价的电动汽车和太阳能为人类文明作出更大的贡献。最终，我们将从太阳获取所有能源，所以如果能够找到一种廉价的方式将太阳的能源储存到电池里，然后再驱动汽车等等，那将真正推动可再生能源。我们在投资BYD 的初期，也没有想到这些，但对于一家伟大的企业，这些都是符合逻辑，水到渠成，就像比尔盖茨当时应该也没有想到要拿下整个产业，因为一切在当时还不存在。
举例二：
彭博通讯社。这家公司的整体情况是产品本身的特性，所以用户转换成本很高。但研究公司历史发现，公司也是从很小起家，一点点拿到市场份额，通过用户每天使用的方式，直到离不开这个产品，也正式达到垄断的地位。彭博的用户与产品之间已经建立了行为联系，所以即使产品提价，也不会选择其他。而彭博作为服务提供商，了解到交易员的习性，会不断向用户询问使用感受，并提供更多更新的服务，使用户完全“上瘾”。所以如果发现一种类似产品，也就能够按照这样的思路研究其所处阶段。比如Capital IQ，就是照搬彭博的模式。
【百度文库-3分钟经典英文演讲】巴菲特1998年在佛罗里达大学的MBA讲座
巴菲特1998年在佛罗里达大学的MBA讲座（节选）巴菲特是世界著名的投资商，2008年以净资产620亿美元成为世界首富。
2019年3月5日（纽约时间），巴菲特以825亿美元在2019年福布斯全球亿万富豪榜中排名第3。
这篇演讲稿是1998年巴菲特在佛罗里达大学给MBA学生做的一个讲座，巴菲特口才非常不错，并不是说他能讲出多少“硬货”，而是他能够把最重要的投资哲理用非常通俗易懂的比喻来告诉大家，让即使对财务分析、市盈率等黑话一窍不通的人也能听懂，所以读巴菲特写的东西一点都不累。
在演讲中，巴菲特不但讲了投资理念，还包括了面对工作及做人的态度。
因为演讲稿太长，此处节选一部分巴菲特关于未来和人生态度的观点给大家。
大家也可以网上找到原文耐心读完，相信一定收获颇丰。
I would like to talk for just one minute to the students about your future when you leave here. Because you will learn a tremendous amount about investments, you all have the ability to do well; you all have the IQ to do well. You all have the energyand initiative to do well or you wouldn't be here.关于你们走出校门后的前程，我在这里只想讲一分钟。
你们在这里已经学了很多关于投资方面的知识，你们学会如何做好事情，你们有足够的IQ能做好，你们也有动力和精力来做好，否则你们就不会在这里了。
Most of you will succeed in meeting your aspirations. But in determining whether you succeed there is more to it than intellect and energy. I would like to talk just a second about that. In fact, there was a guy, Pete Kiewit in Omaha, who used to say, he looked for three things in hiring people: integrity, intelligence and energy. And he said if the person did not have the first two, the later two would kill him, because if they don't have integrity, you want them dumb and lazy.你们中的许多人都将最终实现你们的理想。
巴菲特一生最经典的演讲,没有之一
1998年，巴菲特在佛罗里达大学商学院做了一个超有内涵的演讲。
这是巴菲特最经典的演讲，没有之一。
“请各位提问时一定要刁钻。
你们问的问题越难，才越好玩。
”巴菲特在演讲之前是这样要求的，但他自己提的问题就有够刁钻：“假如可以从认识的人中选一个，买入他今后一生10% 的收入，你会选谁？”以下是演讲原文，经典值得珍藏。
巴菲特在佛罗里达大学商学院的演讲1998年10月15日巴菲特：我先简单说几句，把大部分时间留下来回答大家的问题。
我想聊聊大家关心的话题。
请各位提问的时候一定要刁钻。
你们问的问题越难，才越好玩。
什么都可以问，就是不能问上个月我交了多少税，这个问题我无可奉告。
各位同学，你们毕业之后未来会怎样？我简单说说我的想法。
各位在这所大学能学到大量关于投资的知识，你们将拥有成功所需的知识。
既然各位能坐在这里，你们也拥有成功所需的智商，你们还有成功所需的拼劲。
你们大多数人都会成功地实现自己的理想。
但是最后你到底能否成功，不只取决于你的头脑和勤奋。
我简单讲一下这个道理。
奥马哈有个叫彼得•基威特的人，他说他招人的时候看三点：品行、头脑和勤奋。
他说一个人要是头脑聪明、勤奋努力，但品行不好，肯定是个祸害。
品行不端的人，最好又懒又蠢。
我知道各位都头脑聪明、勤奋努力，所以我今天只讲品行。
为了更好地思考这个问题，我们不妨一起做个游戏。
各位都是MBA 二年级的学生，应该很了解自己周围的同学了。
假设现在你可以选一个同学，买入他今后一生之内 10% 的收入。
你不能选富二代，只能选靠自己奋斗的人。
请各位仔细想一下，你会选班里的哪位同学，买入他今后一生之内 10% 的收入。
你会给所有同学做个智商测试，选智商最高的吗？未必。
你会选考试成绩最高的吗？未必。
你会选最有拼劲的吗？不一定。
因为大家都很聪明，也都很努力，我觉得你会主要考虑定性方面的因素。
好好想想，你会把赌注压在谁的身上？也许你会选你最有认同感的那个人，那个拥有领导能力，能把别人组织起来的人。
Warrent
Warrent Buffet 先⽣的投资经营思想－16条Warrent Buffet（巴菲特）在University of Florida商学院（佛罗⾥达⼤学）演讲闪烁着慈祥和智慧的光芒。
下⾯的16段原话，读起来真的是妙趣横⽣，受益匪浅。
1、当你下赌注时，可能会选择那个你最有认同感的⼈，那个最有领导才能的⼈，那个能实现他⼈利益的⼈，那个慷慨，诚实，即使是他⾃⼰的主意，也会把功劳分予他⼈的⼈。
2、不要做低回报率的⽣意。
时间是好⽣意的朋友，却是坏⽣意的敌⼈。
如果你陷在糟糕的⽣意⾥太久的话，你的结果也⼀定会糟糕，即使你的买⼊价很便宜。
如果你在⼀桩好⽣意⾥，即使你开始多付了⼀点额外的成本，如果你做的⾜够久的话，你的回报⼀定是可观的。
3、⽤对你重要的东西去冒险赢得对你并不重要的东西，简直⽆可理喻，即使你成功的概率是100⽐1，或1000⽐1。
4、抛开其他因素，如果你单纯的⾼兴做⼀项⼯作，那么那就是你应该做的⼯作。
你会学到很多东西，⼯作起来也会觉得有⽆穷的乐趣。
5、我给那些公司经理⼈的要求就是，让城墙更厚些，保护好它，拒竞争者于墙外。
你可以通过服务，产品质量，价钱，成本，专利，地理位置来达到⽬的。
6、我要找的⽣意就是简单，容易理解，经济上⾏得通，诚实，能⼲的管理层。
这样，我就能看清这个企业10年的⼤⽅向。
如果我做不到这⼀点，我是不会买的。
基本上来讲，我只会买那些，即使纽约证交所从明天起关门五年，我也很乐于拥有的股票。
如果我买个农场，即使五年内我不知道它的价格，但只要农场运转正常，我就⾼兴。
如果我买个公寓群，只要它们能租出去，带来预计的回报，我也⼀样⾼兴。
7、⼈们买股票，根据第⼆天早上股票价格的涨跌，决定他们的投资是否正确，这简直是扯淡。
正如格雷厄姆所说的，你要买的是企业的⼀部分⽣意。
这是格雷厄姆教给我的最基本最核⼼的策略。
你买的不是股票，你买的是⼀部分企业⽣意。
企业好，你的投资就好，只要你的买⼊价格不是太离谱。
巴菲特大学演讲稿
巴菲特大学演讲稿篇一：演讲稿巴菲特经管学院工商管理 083104 钟瑶前言有这样一个人他从5岁开始就会摆地摊兜售口香糖聚揽财富11岁买入生平第一只股票13岁开始他的实业投资16岁时他已经积聚了6000美元的财富，这个年轻人赚的钱比他的老师的薪水还要多高中毕业前就已经拥有多达40英亩的农场1956年，年仅25岁的他只出资100美元便伙同他人创办了自己生平的第一个公司，时隔6年，公司资产达到720万美元1964年他个人就拥有了400万美元的财富，3年后，他个人拥有的财富已高达2500万美元1994年，他已经拥有了一个价值230亿的财富王国XX年，他的资产已达到360亿美元......他的名字就叫沃伦·巴菲特他被人们称为“股神”“奥马哈圣贤”“投资奇才”最近巴菲特的午餐被炒得沸沸扬扬。
巴菲特午餐，是和股神巴菲特在纽约知名的牛排馆共进午餐的活动。
XX年起每年拍卖一次，所得善款全部捐给美国慈善机构。
XX年度巴菲特午餐价最终落槌在262万零6311美元。
XX年6月初，巴菲特午餐再破纪录，午餐价格提高到了2626411美元。
我们的生活总会与经济息息相关。
所以今天我们就通过《听巴菲特讲投资之道》这本书来走进巴菲特和他的投资世界内容简介巴菲特是一名极具传奇色彩的股市投资奇才。
他曾创造了39年投资盈利2595倍，100美元起家获利440亿美元财富的投资神话，才30几年就变成了一家封闭式基金公司，接着又成为了一家股权公司。
1965至XX年的42年间，伯克希尔公司净资产的年均增长率达％，累计增长361156％。
他曾投资伯克希尔、可口可乐、索罗门、通用再保险公司、内布拉斯加家具城、《华盛顿邮报》、美国运通、市政府雇员保险公司等多家美国龙头企业，取得卓越的成就。
这本书主要讲的是巴菲特在其辉煌的投资生涯中人生经历，思想感悟，市场原则以及平常生活中的巴菲特。
这本书除了告诉你有关巴菲特正确的投资方法，还将告诉你他是如何正确地坚持自己的方法的。
巴菲特的语录
巴菲特的语录巴菲特的语录1、巴菲特在美国一所大学举行演讲。
一个学生问：你认为什么样的人生才是真正的成功？他没有谈到财富，而是说：“其实，你们到了我这个年纪的时候就会发现，衡量自己成功的标准就是有多少人在真正关心你、爱你。
”2、不同的人理解不同的行业。
最重要的事情是知道你自己理解哪些行业，以及什么时候你的投资决策正好在你自己的能力圈内。
3、成功的投资在本质上是内在的独立自主的结果。
4、从预言中你可以得知许多预言者的信息，但对未来却所获无几。
5、当沒有人逼迫你，请自己逼迫自己，因为真正的改变是自己想改变。
6、当适当的气质与适当的智力结构相结合时，你就会得到理性的行为。
7、当有人逼迫你去突破自己，你要感恩她，她是你生命中的贵人，也许你会因此而改变和蜕变。
8、对你的能力圈来说，最重要的不是能力圈的范围大小，而是你如何能够确定能力圈的边界所在。
如果你知道了能力圈的边界所在，你将比那些能力圈虽然比你大5倍却不知道边界所在的人要富有得多。
9、对于大多数投资者而言，重要的不是他到底知道什么，而是他们是否真正明白自己到底不知道什么。
10、风险来自你不知道自己正做些什么？11、归根结底，我一直相信我自己的眼睛远胜于其他一切。
12、哈佛的一些大学生问我，我该去为谁工作？我回答，去为哪个你最仰慕的人工作。
两周后，我接到一个来自该校教务长的电话。
他说，你对孩子们说了些什么？他们都成了自我雇佣者。
13、很多事情做起来都会有利可图，但是，你必须坚持只做那些自己能力范围内的`事情，我们没有任何办法击倒泰森。
14、金钱多少对于你我没有什么大的区别。
我们不会改变什么，只不过是我们的妻子会生活得好一些。
15、就算美联储主席格林斯潘偷偷告诉我他未来二年的货币政策，我也不会改变我的任何一个作为。
16、开始存钱并及早投资，这是最值得养成的好习惯。
17、每天早上去办公室，我感觉我正要去教堂，去画壁画！18、你真能向一条鱼解释在陆地上行走的感觉吗？对鱼来说，陆上的一天胜过几千年的空谈。
- 1、下载文档前请自行甄别文档内容的完整性，平台不提供额外的编辑、内容补充、找答案等附加服务。
- 2、"仅部分预览"的文档,不可在线预览部分如存在完整性等问题,可反馈申请退款(可完整预览的文档不适用该条件!)。
- 3、如文档侵犯您的权益，请联系客服反馈,我们会尽快为您处理(人工客服工作时间：9:00-18:30)。
（别嫌长，看完一定会有收获，绝对比看那些谁谁谁的照片有意思）在演讲里，巴菲特谈做人，谈投资,谈各种行业使译者受益匪浅。
在这里翻出来以嗜读者。
翻译如下?（一）?我想先讲几分钟的套话，然后我就主要来接受你们的提问。
我想谈的是你们的所思所想。
我鼓励你们给我出难题，畅所欲言，言无不尽。
（原文：我希望你们扔些高难度的球，如果你们的投球带些速度的话，我回答起来会更有兴致）你们几乎可以问任何问题，除了上个礼拜的Texas?A&M的大学橄榄球赛，那超出我所能接受的极限了。
我们这里来了几个SunTrust（译者注：美国一家大型商业银行）的人。
我刚刚参加完Coca?Cola的股东大会（译者注：Warren?Buffet的投资公司是Coca?Cola的长期大股东之一），我坐在吉米●威廉姆斯边上。
吉米领导了SunTrust多年。
吉米一定让我穿上这件SunTrust的T恤到这来。
我一直试着让老年高尔夫联盟给我赞助，但是都无功而返。
没想到我在SunTrust这，却做的不错。
吉米说，基于SunTrust存款的增长，我会得到一定比例的酬劳。
所以我为SunTrust鼓劲。
（译者注：巴菲特在开玩笑）关于你们走出校门后的前程，我在这里只想讲一分钟。
你们在这里已经学了很多关于投资方面的知识，你们学会如何做好事情，你们有足够的IQ能做好，你们也有动力和精力来做好，否则你们就不会在这里了。
你们中的许多人都将最终实现你们的理想。
但是在智能和能量之外，还有更多的东西来决定你是否成功，我想谈谈那些东西。
实际上，在我们Omaha（译者注：Berkshire?Hathaway公司的总部所在地）有一位先生说，当他雇人时，他会看三个方面：诚信，智能，和精力。
雇一个只有智能和精力，却没有诚信的人会毁了雇者。
一个没有诚信的人，你只能希望他愚蠢和懒惰，而不是聪明和精力充沛。
我想谈的是第一点，因为我知道你们都具备后两点。
在考虑这个问题时，请你们和我一起玩玩这个游戏。
你们现在都是在MBA的第二年，所以你们对自己的同学也应该都了解了。
现在我给你们一个来买进10％的你的一个同学的权利，一直到他的生命结束。
你不能选那些有着富有老爸的同学，每个人的成果都要靠他自己的努力。
我给你一个小时来想这个问题，你愿意买进哪一个同学余生的10％。
你会给他们做一个IQ测试吗，选那个IQ值最高的我很怀疑。
你会挑那个学习成绩最好的吗，我也怀疑。
你也不一定会选那个最精力充沛的，因为你自己本身就已经动力十足了。
你可能会去寻找那些质化的因素，因为这里的每个人都是很有脑筋的。
你想了一个小时之后，当你下赌注时，可能会选择那个你最有认同感的人，那个最有领导才能的人，那个能实现他人利益的人，那个慷慨，诚实，即使是他自己的主意，也会把功劳分予他人的人。
所有这些素质，你可以把这些你所钦佩的素质都写下来。
（你会选择）那个你最钦佩的人。
然后，我这里再给你们下个跘儿。
在你买进10％你的同学时，你还要卖出10％的另外一个人。
这不是很有趣吗你会想我到底卖谁呢你可能还是不会找IQ最低的。
你可能会选那个让你厌恶的同学，以及那些令你讨厌的品质。
那个你不愿打交道的人，其他人也不愿意与之打交道的人。
是什么品质导致了那一点呢你能想出一堆来，比如不够诚实，爱占小便宜等等这些，你可以把它们写在纸的右栏。
当你端详纸的左栏和右栏时，会发现有意思的一点。
能否将橄榄球扔出60码之外并不重要，是否能在9秒3之内跑100码也不重要，是否是班上最好看的也无关大局。
真正重要的是那些在纸上左栏里的品质。
如果你愿意的话，你可以拥有所有那些品质。
那些行动，脾气，和性格的品质，都是可以做到的。
它们不是我们在座的每一位力所不能及的。
再看看那些右栏里那些让你厌恶的品质，没有一项是你不得不要的。
如果你有的话，你也可以改掉。
在你们这个年纪，改起来比在我这个年纪容易得多，因为大多数这些行为都是逐渐固定下来的。
人们都说习惯的枷锁开始轻得让人感受不到，一旦你感觉到的时候，已经是沉重得无法去掉了。
我认为说得很对。
我见过很多我这个年纪或者比我还年轻10岁，20岁的人，有着自我破坏性习惯而又难以自拔，他们走到哪里都招人厌恶。
他们不需要那样，但是他们已经无可救药。
但是，在你们这个年纪，任何习惯和行为模式都可以有，只要你们愿意，就只是一个选择的问题。
就象本杰明●格拉姆（上个世纪中叶着名的金融投资家）一样，在他还是十几岁的少年时，他四顾看看那些令人尊敬的人，他想我也要做一个被人尊敬的人，为什么我不象那些人一样行事呢他发现那样去做并不是不可能的。
他对那些令人讨厌的品质采取了与此相反的方式而加以摒弃。
所以我说，如果你把那些品质都写下来，好好思量一下，择善而从，你自己可能就是那个你愿意买入10％的人！更好的是你自己本就100％的拥有你自己了。
这就是我今天要讲的。
?下面就让我们开始谈谈你们所感兴趣的。
我们可以从这儿或那儿举起的手开始二)?问题：你对日本的看法?巴菲特：我不是一个太宏观的人。
现在日本10年期的贷款利息只有1％。
我对自己说，45年前，我上了本杰明●格拉姆的课程，然后我就一直勤勤恳恳，努力工作，也许我应该比1％挣的多点吧看上去那不是不可能的。
我不想卷入任何汇率波动的风险，所以我会选择以日元为基准的资产，如地产或企业，必须是日本国内的。
我唯一需要做的就是挣得比1％多，因为那是我资金的成本。
可直到现在，我还没有发现一家可以投资的生意。
这真的很有趣。
日本企业的资产回报率都很低。
他们有少数企业会有4％，5％，或6％的回报。
如果日本企业本身赚不了多少钱的话，那么其资产投资者是很难获得好的回报的。
当然，有一些人也赚了钱。
我有一个同期为本杰明●格拉姆工作过的朋友。
那是我第一次买股票的方法，即寻找那些股票价格远低于流动资本的公司，非常便宜但又有一点素质的公司。
我管那方法叫雪茄烟蒂投资法。
你满地找雪茄烟蒂，终于你找到一个湿透了的，令人讨厌的烟蒂，看上去还能抽上一口。
那一口可是免费的。
你把它捡起来，抽上最后一口，然后扔了，接着找下一个。
这听上去一点都不优雅，但是如果你找的是一口免费的雪茄烟，这方法还值得做。
不要做低回报率的生意。
时间是好生意的朋友，却是坏生意的敌人。
如果你陷在糟糕的生意里太久的话，你的结果也一定会糟糕，即使你的买入价很便宜。
如果你在一桩好生意里，即使你开始多付了一点额外的成本，如果你做的足够久的话，你的回报一定是可观的。
我现在从日本没发现什么好生意。
也可能日本的文化会作某些改变，比如他们的管理层可能会对公司股票的责任多一些，这样回报率会高些。
但目前来看，我看到的都是一些低回报率的公司，即使是在日本经济高速发展的时候。
说来也令人惊奇，因为日本这样一个完善巨大的市场却不能产生一些优秀的高回报的公司。
日本的优秀只体现在经济总量上，而不是涌现一些优质的公司（译者注：对中国而言，这样的问题何止严重10倍！）。
这个问题已经给日本带来麻烦了。
我们到现在为止对日本还是没什么兴趣。
只要那的利息还是1％，我们会继续持观望态度问题：有传闻说，你成为长期资金管理基金的救场买家你在那里做了什么你看到了什么机会（译者注：长期资金管理基金是一家着名的对冲基金。
1994年创立。
创立后的头些年盈利可观，年均40％以上。
但是，在1998年，这家基金在4个月里损失了46个亿，震惊世界）?巴菲特：在最近的一篇财富杂志（封面是鲁本●默多克）上的文章里讲了事情的始末。
有点意思。
是一个冗长的故事，我这里就不介绍来龙去脉了。
我接了一个非常慎重的关于长期资金管理基金的电话。
那是4个星期前的一个星期五的下午吧。
我孙女的生日Party在那个傍晚。
在之后的晚上，我会飞到西雅图，参加比尔●盖茨的一个12天的阿拉斯加的私人旅程。
所以我那时是一点准备都没有的。
于是星期五我接了这个电话，整个事情变得严重起来。
在财富的文章发表之前，我还通了其他一些相关电话。
我认识他们（译者注：长期资金管理基金的人），他们中的一些人我还很熟。
很多人都在所罗门兄弟公司工作过。
事情很关键。
美联储周末派了人过去（译者注：纽约）。
在星期五到接下来的周三这段时间里，纽约储备局导演了没有联邦政府资金卷入的长期资金管理基金的救赎行动。
我很活跃。
但是我那时的身体状况很不好，因为我们那时正在阿拉斯加的一些峡谷里航行，而我对那些峡谷毫无兴趣。
船长说我们朝着可以看到北极熊的方向航行，我告诉船长朝着可以稳定接收到卫星信号的方向航行（才是重要的）（译者注：巴菲特在开玩笑，意思是他在船上，却一直心系手边的工作）。
星期三的早上，我们出了一个报价。
那时，我已经在蒙塔那（译者注：美国西北部的一个州）了。
我和纽约储备局的头儿通了话。
他们在10点会和一批银行家碰头。
我把意向传达过去了。
纽约储备局在10点前给在怀俄明（译者注：美国西北部的一个州）的我打了电话。
我们做了一个报价。
那确实只是一个大概的报价，因为我是在远程（不可能完善细节性的东西）。
最终，我们对亿美元的净资产做了报价,但我们会在那之上追加30到亿左右。
Berkshire?Hathaway（巴菲特的投资公司）分到30个亿,?AIG有7个亿,?Goldman?Sachs有3个亿。
我们把投标交了上去，但是我们的投标时限很短，因为你不可能对价值以亿元计的证券在一段长时间内固定价格，我也担心我们的报价会被用来作待价而沽的筹码。
最后，银行家们把合同搞定了。
那是一个有意思的时期。
整个长期资金管理基金的历史，我不知道在座的各位对它有多熟悉，其实是波澜壮阔的。
如果你把那16个人，象John?Meriwether,?Eric?Rosenfeld，Larry?Hilibrand，Greg?Hawkins,?Victor?Haghani，还有两个诺贝尔经济学奖的获得者，Myron?Scholes和Robert?Merton，放在一起，可能很难再从任何你能想像得到的公司中，包括象微软这样的公司，找到另外16个这样高IQ的一个团队。
那真的是一个有着难以置信的智商的团队，而且他们所有人在业界都有着大量的实践经验。
他们可不是一帮在男装领域赚了钱，然后突然转向证券的人。
这16个人加起来的经验可能有350年到400年，而且是一直专精于他们目前所做的。
第3个因素，他们所有人在金融界都有着极大的关系网，数以亿计的资金也来自于这个关系网，其实就是他们自己的资金。
超级智商，在他们内行的领域，结果是他们破产了。
这于我而言，是绝对的百思不得其解。
如果我要写本书的话，书名就是“为什么聪明人净干蠢事”。
我的合伙人说那本书就是他的自传（笑）。
这真的是一个完美的演示。
就我自己而言，我和那16个人没有任何过节。
他们都是正经人，我尊敬他们，甚至我自己有问题的时候，也会找他们来帮助解决。
他们绝不是坏人。
但是，他们为了挣那些不属于他们，他们也不需要的钱，他们竟用属于他们，他们也需要的钱来冒险。