巴菲特1998年在佛罗里达大学的一次演讲
可口可乐的配方事件
一纸配方无限价值和”一纸配方无限价值和““神秘感神秘感”1998年，“股神”巴菲特在佛罗里达大学做公开演讲时，才当众揭示了可口可乐那1%配方的秘密——配方中的1%所产生的神奇效果就是：没有味觉记忆!巴菲特如此解说：其他饮料，如甜苏打水、橙汁、汽水等等，如果重复饮用，会让人对其味道生发麻木感，味觉记忆往往令人对其产生某种“厌恶”。
但是，可口可乐没有味觉积累，意味着：在一天里，即使你多次喝可口可乐，而每一次的味道都是一样的好。
这是巴菲特对可口可乐秘密配方的解读。
在可口可乐公司元老罗伯特·伍德鲁夫(Woodruff Robert)看来，配方首先是一纸手书，它和产品本身一样，由其发明人约翰·彭伯顿(Dr.John Stith Pemberton)创造。
藏不住的秘密??藏不住的秘密自1886年在美国亚特兰大诞生以来，这个配方已保密近130年之久，坊间流传配方代号名为“Merchandise7X”。
为了保住这一秘方，可口可乐公司元老罗伯特·伍德鲁夫在1923年成为公司领导人时，就把保护秘方作为其首要任务。
1925年，董事会通过一项决议，将可口可乐的神秘配方安放于亚特兰大市某信托银行的保险柜内。
当时，这一将饮料发明者约翰·彭伯顿的手书藏进银行保险库中的过程，还以新闻形式向公众播放。
可口可乐公司同时声明称，如果谁要查询这一秘方，必须先提出申请，经由信托公司董事会批准，并在有官员在场的情况下，在指定时间内打开。
截至2000年，知道这一秘方的只有不到10人。
《可口可乐帝国》一书中描述称，配方分成三种关键成分，分别由公司的3个高级职员掌握，三人的身份被绝对保密。
同时，他们签署了“决不泄密”的协议，而且，连他们自己都不知道另外两种成分是什么。
三人不允许乘坐同一交通工具外出，以防止发生飞机失事等事故导致秘方失传。
能够被给予这样机密信息的人，也视其为公司赋予个人的最高荣誉。
而在与合作伙伴的贸易中，可口可乐公司只向合作伙伴提供半成品。
巴菲特在佛罗里达大学的演讲
Buffett Lecture at the University of Florida School of Business October 15, 1998This speech was the first in a series sponsored by the Graham-Buffett Teaching Endowment, established in 1997 by a $1 million gift from (1970 UF graduate) Mason Hawkins./c85orIntroduction:The Graham-Buffett Course sequence is important to this college because it enables us to attract students who want this perspective on investing and managing corporations—a perspective that has been successfully employed by Mr. Buffett, Mr. Hawkins and before them, Benjamin Graham.This perspective is quite simple but is sometimes lost in the complexity of our University analysis. The perspective is that you have to understand the underlying economics of the businesses that you invest in, work in. You have to be clear-eyed and not be swayed by the crowd or passing fancies of the moment. And you have to learn and stick to disciplined principles of business valuation.In the long run this disciplined approach will more often than not bring success or more importantly avoid spectacular failures.Hopefully at the University of Florida we can successfully convey those principles and create a program for the very best students and in time the very best employers as well. We thank Mr. Hawkins for his gift ($1 million) and share his thoughts today.Mason Hawkins: He is someone I have admired tremendously for the last 30 years. In addition, he is someone each of us could pattern our lives after as a role model. It is my honor to introduce our lifetime's best long-term investor……-------------Buffett: (holds mike) Testing: One million $, two million $….three million $.I would like to say a few words primarily and then the highlight for me will be getting your questions. I want to talk about what is on your mind.Your FutureI would like to talk for just one minute to the students about your future when you leave here. Because you will learn a tremendous amount about investments, you all have the ability to do well; you all have the IQ to do well. You all have the energy and initiative to do well or you wouldn't be here. Most of you will succeed in meeting your aspirations.But in determining whether you succeed there is more to it than intellect and energy. I would like to talk just a second about that. In fact, there was a guy, Pete Kiewit in Omaha, who used to say, he looked for three things in hiring people: integrity, intelligence and energy. And he said if the person did not have the first two, the later two would kill him, because if they don't have integrity, you want them dumb and lazy.We want to talk about the first two because we know you have the last two. You are all second-year MBA students, so you have gotten to know your classmates. Think for a moment that I granted you the right--you can buy 10% of one of your classmate’s earnings for the rest of their lifetime. You can't pick someone with a rich father; you have to pick someone who is going to do it on his or her own merit. And I gave you an hour to think about it.Will you give them an IQ test and pick the one with the highest IQ? I doubt it. Will you pick the one with the best grades? The most energetic? You will start looking for qualitative factors, in addition to (the quantitative) because everyone has enough brains and energy. You would probably pick the one you responded the best to, the one who has the leadership qualities, the one who is able to get other people to carry out their interests. That would be the person who is generous, honest and who gave credit to other people for their own ideas. All types of qualities. Whomever you admire the most in the class. Then I would throw in a hooker. In addition to this person you had to go short one of your classmates.That is more fun. Who do I want to go short? You wouldn't pick the person with the lowest IQ, you would think about the person who turned you off, the person who is egotistical, who is greedy, who cuts corners, who is slightly dishonest.As you look at those qualities on the left and right hand side, there is one interesting thing about them, it is not the ability to throw a football 60 yards, it is not the ability the run the 100 yard dash in 9.3 seconds, it is not being the best looking person in the class, they are all qualities that if you really want to have the ones on the left hand side, you can have them.They are qualities of behavior, temperament, character that are achievable, they are not forbidden to anybody in this group. And if you look at the qualities on the right hand side the ones that turn you off in other people, there is not a quality there that you have to have. You can get rid of it. You can get rid of it a lot easier at your age than at my age, because most behaviors are habitual. The chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken. There is no question about it. I see people with these self- destructive behavior patterns at my age or even twenty years younger and they really are entrapped by them.They go around and do things that turn off other people right and left. They don't need to be that way but by a certain point they get so they can hardly change it. But at your age you can have any habits, any patterns of behavior that you wish. It is simply a question of which you decide.If you did this… Ben Graham looked around at the people he admired and Ben Franklin did this before him. Ben Graham did this in his low teens and he looked around at the people he admired and he said, "I want to be admired, so why don't I behave like them?" And he found out that there was nothing impossible about behaving like them. Similarly he did the same thing on the reverse side in terms of getting rid of those qualities. I would suggest is that if you write those qualities down and think about them a while and make them habitual, you will be the one you want to buy 10% of when you are all through. And the beauty of it is that you already own 100% of yourself and you are stuck with it. So you might as well be that person, that somebody else.Well that is a short little sermon. So let's get on with what you are interested in. Let's start with questions………..Question: What about Japan? Your thoughts about Japan?Buffett: My thoughts about Japan? I am not a macro guy. Now I say to myself Berkshire Hathaway can borrow money in Japan for 10 years at one percent. One percent! I say gee, I took Graham's class 45 years ago and I have been working hard at this all my life maybe I can earn more than 1% annually, it doesn't seem impossible. I wouldn't want to get involved in currency risk, so it would have to be Yen-denominated. I would have to be in Japanese Real Estate or Japanese companies or something of the sort and all I have to do is beat one percent. That is all the money is going to cost me and I can get it for 10 years. So far I haven't found anything. It is kind of interesting. The Japanese businesses earn very low returns on equity - 4% to 5% - 6% on equity and it is very hard to earn a lot as an investor when the business you are in doesn't earn very much money.Now some people do it. In fact, I have a friend, Walter Schloss, who worked at Graham at the same time I did. And it was the first way I went at stocks to buy stocks selling way below working capital. A very cheap, quantitative approach to stocks. I call it the cigar butt approach to investing. You walk down the street and you look around for a cigar butt someplace. Finally you see one and it is soggy and kind of repulsive, but there is one puff left in it. So you pick it up and the puff is free--it is a cigar butt stock. You get one free puff on it and then you throw it away and try another one. It is not elegant. But it works. Those are low return businesses.But time is the friend of the wonderful business; it is the enemy of the lousy business. If you are in a lousy business for a long time, you will get a lousy result even if you buy it cheap. If you are in a wonderful business for a long time, even if you pay a little bit too much going in you will get a wonderful result if you stay in a long time.I find very few wonderful businesses in Japan at present. They may change the culture in some way so that management gets more share holder responsive over there and stock returns are higher. At the present time you will find a lot of low return businesses and that was true even when the Japanese economy was booming. It is amazing; they had anincredible market without incredible companies. They were incredible in terms of doing a lot of business, but they were not incredible in terms of the return on equity that they achieved and that has finally caught up with them. So we have so far done nothing there. But as long as money is 1% there, we will keep looking.Question: You were rumored to be one of the rescue buyers of Long Term Capital, what was the play there, what did you see?Buffett: The Fortune Magazine that has Rupert Murdoch on the cover. It tells the whole story of our involvement; it is kind of an interesting story. I got the really serious call about LTCM on a Friday afternoon that things were getting serious. I know those people most of them pretty well--most of them at Salomon when I was there. And the place was imploding and the FED was sending people up that weekend. Between that Friday and the following Wed. when the NY Fed, in effect, orchestrated a rescue effort but without any Federal money involved. I was quite active but I was having a terrible time reaching anybody.We put in a bid on Wednesday morning. I talked to Bill McDonough at the NY Fed. We made a bid for 250 million for the net assets but we would have put in 3 and 3/4 billion on top of that. $3 billion from Berkshire, $700 mil. from AIG and $300 million. from Goldman Sachs. And we submitted that but we put a very short time limit on that because when you are bidding on 100 billion worth of securities that are moving around, youdon't want to leave a fixed price bid out there for very long.In the end the bankers made the deal, but it was an interesting period. The whole LTCM is really fascinating because if you take Larry Hillenbrand, Eric Rosenfeld, John Meriwether and the two Nobel prize winners. If you take the 16 of them, they have about as high an IQ as any 16 people working together in one business in the country, including Microsoft. An incredible amount of intellect in one room. Now you combine that with the fact that those people had extensive experience in the field they were operating in. These were not a bunch of guys who had made their money selling men’s clothing and all of a sudden went into the securities business. They had in aggregate, the 16, had 300 or 400 years of experience doing exactly what they were doing and then you throw in the third factor that most of them had most of their very substantial net worth’s in the businesses. Hundreds and hundreds of millions of their own money up (at risk), super high intellect and working in a field that they knew. Essentially they went broke. That to me is absolutely fascinating.If I ever write a book it will be called, Why Smart People Do Dumb Things. My partner says it should be autobiographical. But this might be an interesting illustration. They are perfectly decent guys. I respect them and they helped me out when I had problems at Salomon. They are not bad people at all.But to make money they didn’t have and didn’t need, they risked what they did have and what they did need. That is just plain foolish; it doesn’t matter what your IQ is. If you risk something that is important to you for something that is unimportant to you it justdoesn’t make sense. I don’t care if the odds you succeed are 99 to 1 or 1000 to 1 that you succeed. If you hand me a gun with a million chambers with one bullet in a chamber and put it up to your temple and I am paid to pull the trigger, it doesn’t matter how much I would be paid. I would not pull the trigger. You can name any sum you want, but it doesn’t do anything for me on the upside and I think the downside is fairly clear. Yet people do it financially very much without thinking.There was a lousy book with a great title written by Walter Gutman—You Only Have to Get Rich Once. Now that seems pretty fundamental. If you have $100 million at the beginning of the year and you will make 10% if you are unleveraged and 20% if you are leveraged 99 times out of a 100, what difference if at the end of the year, you have $110 million or $120 million? It makes no difference. If you die at the end of the year, the guy who makes up the story may make a typo, he may have said 110 even though you had a 120. You have gained nothing at all. It makes absolutely no difference. It makes no difference to your family or anybody else.The downside, especially if you are managing other people’s money, is not only losing all your money, but it is disgrace, humiliation and facing friends whose money you have lost. Yet 16 guys with very high IQs entered into that game. I think it is madness. It is produced by an over reliance to some extent on things. Those guys would tell me back at Salomon; a six Si gm a event wouldn’t touch us. But they were wrong. History does not tell you of future things happening. They had a great reliance on mathematics. They thought that the Beta of the stock told you something about the risk of the stock. It doesn’t tell you a damn thing about the risk of the stock in my view.Si gm a’s do not tell you about the risk of going broke in my view and maybe now in their view too. But I don’t like to use them as an example. The same thing in a different way could happen to any of us, where we really have a blind spot about something that is crucial, because we know a whole lot of something else. It is like Henry Kauffman said, “The ones who are going broke in this situation are of two types, the ones who know nothing and the ones who know everything.” It is sad in a way.I urge you. We basically never borrow money. I never borrowed money even when I had $10,000 basically, what difference did it make. I was having fun as I went along it didn’t matter whether I had $10,000 or $100,000 or $1,000,000 unless I had a medical emergency come along.I was going to do the same things when I had a little bit of money as when I had a lot of money. If you think of the difference between me and you, we wear the same clothes basically (SunTrust gives me mine), we eat similar food—we all go to McDonald’s or better yet, Dairy Queen, and we live in a house that is warm in winter and cool in summer. We watch the Nebraska (football) game on big screen TV. You see it the same way I see it. We do everything the same—our lives are not that different. The only thing we do is we travel differently. What can I do that you can’t do?I get to work in a job that I love, but I have always worked at a job that I loved. I loved it just as much when I thought it was a big deal to make $1,000. I urge you to work in jobs that you love. I think you are out of your mind if you keep taking jobs that you don’t like because you think it will look good on your resume. I was with a fellow at Harvard the other day who was taking me over to talk. He was 28 and he was telling me all that he had done in life, which was terrific. And then I said, “What will you do next?” “Well,” he said, “Maybe after I get my MBA I will go to work for a consulting firm because it will look good on my resume.” I said, “Look, you are 28 and you have been doing all these things, you have a resume 10 times than anybody I have ever seen. Isn’t that a little like saving up sex for your old age?There comes a time when you ought to start doing what you want. Take a job that you love. You will jump out of bed in the morning. When I first got out of Columbia Business School, I wanted to go to work for Graham immediately for nothing. He thought I was over-priced. But I kept pestering him. I sold securities for three years and I kept writing him and finally I went to work for him for a couple of years. It was a great experience. But I always worked in a job that I loved doing. You really should take a job that if you were independently wealthy that would be the job you would take. You will learn something, you will be excited about, and you will jump out of bed. You can’t miss. You may try something else later on, but you will get way more out of it and I don’t care what the starting salary is.When you get out of here take a job you love, not a job you think will look good on your resume. You ought to find something you like.If you think you will be happier getting 2x instead of 1x, you are probably making a mistake. You will get in trouble if you think making 10x or 20x will make you happier because then you will borrow money when you shouldn’t or cut corners on things. It just doesn’t make sense and you won’t like it when you look back.Question: What makes a company something that you like?Buffett: I like businesses that I can understand. Let’s start with that. That narrows it down by 90%. There are all types of things I don’t understand, but fortunately, there is enough I do understand. You have this big wide world out there and almost every company is publicly owned. So you have all American business practically available to you. So it makes sense to go with things you can understand.I can understand this, anyone can understand this (Buffett holds up a bottle of Coca-Cola). Since 1886, it is a simple business, but it is not an easy business—I don’t want an easy business for competitors. I want a business with a moat around it. I want a very valuable castle in the middle and then I want the Duke who is in charge of that castle to be very honest and hard working and able. Then I want a moat around that castle. The moat can be various things: The moat around our auto insurance business, Geico, is low cost.People have to buy auto insurance so everyone is going to have one auto insurance policy per car basically. I can’t sell them 20, but they have to buy one. I can sell them 1. What are they going to buy it on? (based on what criteria?) They (customers) will buy based on service and cost. Most people will assume the service is identical among companies or close enough. So they will do it on cost. So I have to be a low cost producer--that is my moat. To the extent that my costs are further below the other guy, I have thrown a couple of sharks into the moat. All the time you have this wonderful castle, there are people out there who are going to attack it and try to take it away from you. I want a castle I can understand, but I want a castle with a moat around it.Kodak30 years ago, Eastman Kodak’s moat was just as wide as Coca-Cola’s moat. I mean if you were going to take a picture of your six-month old baby and you want to look at that picture 20 years from now or 50 years from now. And you are never going to get a chance—you are not a professional photographer—so you can evaluate what is going to look good 20 or 50 years ago. What is in your mind about that photography company (Share of Mind) is what counts. Because they are promising you that the picture you take today is going to be terrific 20 to 50 years from now about something that is very important to you. Well, Kodak had that in spades 30 years ago, they owned that. They had what I call share of mind. Forget about share of market, share of mind. They had something—that little yellow box—that said Kodak is the best. That is priceless. They have lost some of that. They haven’t lost it all.It is not due to George Fisher. George is doing a great job, but they let that moat narrow. They let Fuji come and start narrowing the moat in various ways. They let them get into the Olympics and take away that special aspect that only Kodak was fit to photograph the Olympics. So Fuji gets there and immediately in people’s minds, Fuji becomes more into parity with Kodak.You haven’t seen that with Coke; Coke’s moat is wider now than it was 30 years ago. You can’t see the moat day by day but every time the infrastructure that gets built in some country that isn’t yet profitable for Coke that will be 20 years from now. The moat is widening a little bit. Things are, all the time, changing a little in one direction or the other. Ten years from now, you will see the difference. Our managers of the businesses we run, I have one message to them, and we want to widen the moat. We want to throw crocs, sharks and gators—I guess—into the moat to keep away competitors. That comes about through service, through quality of product, it comes about through cost, some times through patents, and/or real estate location. So that is the business I am looking for.Now what kind of businesses am I going to find like that? Well, I am going to find them in simple products because I am not going to be able to figure what the moat is going to look like for Oracle, Lotus or Microsoft, ten years from now. Gates is the best businessman I have ever run into and they have a hell of a position, but I really don’t know what that business is going to look like ten years from now. I certainly don’t knowwhat his competitors will look like ten years from now. I know what the chewing business will look like ten years from now. The Internet is not going to change how we chew gum and nothing much else is going to change how we chew gum. There will lots of new products. Is Spearmint or Juicy Fruit going to evaporate? It isn’t going to happen. You give me a billion dollars and tell me to go into the chewing gum business and try to make a real dent in Wrigley’s. I can’t do it. That is how I think about businesses. I say to myself, give me a billion dollars and how much can I hurt the guy? Give me $10 billion dollars and how much can I hurt Coca-Cola around the world? I can’t do it. Those are good businesses.Now give me some money and tell me to hurt somebody in some other fields, and I can figure out how to do it.So I want a simple business, easy to understand, great economics now, honest and able management, and then I can see about in a general way where they will be ten (10) years from now. If I can’t see where they will be ten years from now, I don’t want to buy it. Basically, I don’t want to buy any stock where if they close the NYSE tomorrow for five years, I won’t be happy owning it. I buy a farm and I don’t get a quote on it for five years and I am happy if the farm does OK. I buy an apartment house and don’t get a quote on it for five years, I am happy if the apartment house produces the returns that I expect. People buy a stock and they look at the price next morning and they decide to see if they are doing well or not doing well. It is crazy. They are buying a piece of the business. That is what Graham—the most fundamental part of what he taught me.You are not buying a stock, you are buying part ownership in a business. You will do well if the business does well, if you didn’t pay a totally silly price. That is what it is all about. You ought to buy businesses you understand. Just like if you buy farms, you ought to buy farms you understand. It is not complicated.Incidentally, by the way, in calling this Graham-Buffett, this is pure Graham. I was very fortunate. I picked up his book (The Intelligent Investor) when I was nineteen; I got interested in stocks when I was 6 or 7. I bought my first stock when I was eleven. But I was playing around with all this stuff—I had charts and volume and I was making all types of technical calculations and everything. Then I picked up a little book that said you are not just buying some little ticker symbol, that bounces around every day, you are buying part of a business. Soon as I started thinking about it that way, everything else followed. It is very simple. So we buy businesses we think we can understand. There is no one here who can’t understand Coke………….. (end of first side.)If I was teaching a class at business school, on the final exam I would pass out the information on an Internet company and ask each student to value it. Anybody that gave me an answer, I’d flunk (Laughter).I don’t know how to do it. But people do it all the time; it is more exciting. If you look at it like you are going to the races--that is a different thing--but if you are investing…. Investing is putting out money to be sure of getting more back later at an appropriate rate.And to do that you have to understand what you are doing at any time. You have to understand the business. You can understand some businesses but not all businesses.Question: You covered half of it which is trying to understand a business and buying a business. You also alluded to getting a return on the amount of capital invested in the business. How do you determine what is the proper price to pay for the business?Buffett: It is a tough thing to decide but I don’t want to buy into any business I am not terribly sure of. So if I am terribly sure of it, it probably won’t offer incredible returns. Why should something that is essentially a cinch to do well, offer you 40% a year? We don’t have huge returns in mind, but we do have in mind not losing anything. We bought See’s Candy in 1972, See’s Candy was then selling 16 m. pounds of candy at a $1.95 a pound and it was making 2 bits a pound or $4 million pre-tax. We paid $25 million for it—6.25 x pretax or about 10x after tax. It took no capital to speak of. When we looked at that business—basically, my partner, Charlie, and I—we needed to decide if there was some untapped pricing power there. Where that $1.95 box of candy could sell for $2 to $2.25. If it could sell for $2.25 or another $0.30 per pound that was $4.8 on 16 million pounds. Which on a $25 million purchase price was fine. We never hired a consultant in our lives; our idea of consulting was to go out and buy a box of candy and eat it.What we did know was that they had share of mind in California. There was something special. Every person in Ca. has something in mind about See’s Candy and overwhelmingly it was favorable. They had taken a box on Valentine’s Day to some girl and she had kissed him. If she slapped him, we would have no business. As long as she kisses him, that is what we want in their minds. See’s Candy means getting kissed. If we can get that in the minds of people, we can raise prices. I bought it in 1972, and every year I have raised prices on Dec. 26th, the day after Christmas, because we sell a lot on Christmas. In fact, we will make $60 million this year. We will make $2 per pound on 30 million pounds. Same business, same formulas, same everything--$60 million bucks and it still doesn’t take any capital.And we make more money 10 years from now. But of that $60 million, we make $55 million in the three weeks before Christmas. And our company song is: “What a friend we have in Jesus.” (Laughter). It is a good business. Think about it a little. Most people do not buy boxed chocolate to consume themselves, they buy them as gifts—somebody’s birthday or more likely it is a holiday. Valentine’s Day is the single biggest day of the year. Christmas is the biggest season by far. Women buy for Christmas and they plan ahead and buy over a two or three week period. Men buy on Valentine’s Day. They are driving home; we run ads on the Radio. Guilt, guilt, guilt—guys are veering off the highway right and left. They won’t dare go home without a box of Chocolates by the time we get through with them on our radio ads. So that Valentine’s Day is the biggest day.Can you imagine going home on Valentine’s Day—our See’s Candy is now $11 a pound thanks to my brilliance. And let’s say there is candy available at $6 a pound. Do you。
慢慢变富的罗宾逊：巴菲特1998年佛罗里达大学商学院经典演讲
慢慢变富的罗宾逊：巴菲特1998年佛罗里达大学商学院经典演讲Question: The Asian Crisis and how it affects a company like Coke that recently announced their earnings would be lower in the fourth quarter.Buffett: Well, basically I love it, but because the market for Coca-Cola products will grow far faster over the next twenty years internationally than it will in the United States. It will grow in the U.S. on a per capita basis. The fact that it will be a tough period for who knows—three months or three years—but it wont be tough for twenty years. People will still be going to be working productively around the world and they are going to find this is a bargain product in terms of a portion of their working day that they have to give up in order to have one of these, better yet, five of them a day like I do.This is a product that in 1936 when I first bought 6 of those for a quarter and sold them for a nickel each. It was in a 6.5 oz bottle and you paid a two cents deposit on the bottle. That was a 6.5 oz. bottle for a nickel at that time; it is now a 12 oz. can which if you buy it on Weekends or if you buy it in bigger quantities, so much money doesnt go to packaging—you essentially can buy the 12 ozs. for not much more than 20 cents. So you are paying not much more than twice the per oz. price of 1936. This is a product that has gotten cheaper and cheaper relative to peoples earning power over the years. And which people love. And in 200 countries, you have the per capita consumption use going up every year for a product that is over 100 years old that dominates the market. That is unbelievable.One thing that people dont understand is one thing thatmakes this product worth 10s and 10s of billions of dollars is one simple fact about really all colas, but we will call it Coca-Cola for the moment. It happens to be a name that I like. Cola has no taste memory. You can drink one of these at 9 Oclock, 10 Oclock, 1 Oclock and 5 Oclock. The one at 5 oclock will taste as good to you as the one you drank early in the morning, you cant do that with Cream Soda, Root Beer, Orange, Grape. All of those things accumulate on you. Most foods and beverages accumulate; you get sick of them after a while. And if you eat Sees Candy—we get these people who go to work for us at Sees Candy and the first day they go crazy, but after a week they are eating the same amount as if they were buying it, because chocolate accumulates on you. There is no taste memory to Cola and that means you get people around the world who will be heavy users—who will drink five a day, or for Diet Coke, 7 or even 8 a day. They will never do that with other products. So you get this incredible per capita consumption. The average person in this part of the world or maybe a little north of here drinks 64 ozs. of liquid a day. You can have 64 ozs. of that be Coke and you will not get fed up with Coke if you like it to start with in the least. But if you do that with anything else; if you eat just one product all day, you will get a little sick of it after a while.It is a huge factor. So today over 1 billion of Coca-Cola product servings will be sold in the world and that will grow year by year. It will grow in every country virtually, and it will grow on a per capita basis. And twenty years from now it will grow a lot faster internationally than in the U.S., so I really like that market better, because there is more growth there over time. But it will hurt them in the short term right now, but that doesnt mean anything. Coca-Cola went public in 1919; the stock sold for $40per share. The Chandler family bought the whole business for $2,000 back in the late 1880s. So now he goes public in 1919, $40 per share. One year later it is selling for $19 per share. It has gone down 50% in one year. You might think it is some kind of disaster and you might think sugar prices increased and the bottlers were rebellious. And a whole bunch of things. You can always find reasons that weren't the ideal moment to buy it. Years later you would have seen the Great Depression, WW II and sugar rationing and thermonuclear weapons and the whole thing—there is always a reason.But in the end if you had bought one share at $40 per share and reinvested the dividends, it would be worth $5 million now ($40 compounding at 14.63% for 86 years!). That factor so overrides anything else. If you are right about the business you will make a lot of money. The timing part of it is very tricky thing so I dont worry about any given event if I got a wonderful business what it does next year or something of the sort. Price controls have been in this country at various times and that has fouled up even the best of businesses. I wouldnt be able to raise prices Dec31st on Sees Candy. But that doesnt make it a lousy business if that happens to happen, because you are not going to have price controls forever. We had price controls in the early 70s.The wonderful business—you can figure what will happen, you cant figure out when it will happen. You dont want to focus too much on when but you want to focus on what. If you are right about what, you dont have to worry about when very much.Question: What about your business mistakes?Buffett: How much time do you have? The interesting thing about investments for me and my partner, Charlie Munger, thebiggest mistakes have not been mistakes of commission, but of omission. They are where we knew enough about the business to do something and where, for one reason or another, sat they're sucking out thumbs instead of doing something. And so we have passed up things where we could have made billions and billions of dollars from things we understood, forget about things we dont understand. The fact I could have made billions of dollars from Microsoft doesnt mean anything because I never could understand Microsoft. But if I can make billions out of healthcare stocks, then I should make it. And I didnt when the Clinton health care program was proposed and they all went in the tank. We should have made a ton of money out of that because I could understand it. And didnt make it.I should have made a ton of money out of Fannie Mae back the mid-1980s, but I didnt do it. Those are billion dollar mistakes or multi-billion dollar mistakes that generally accepted accounting principles dont pick up.The mistakes you see. I made a mistake when I bought US Air Preferred some years ago. I had a lot of money around. I make mistakes when I get cash. Charlie tells me to go to a bar instead. Dont hang around the office. But I hang around the office and I have money in my pocket, I do something dumb. It happens every time. So I bought this thing. Nobody made me buy it. I now have an 800 number I call every time I think about buying a stock in an airline. I say,I am Warren and I am an air-aholic.They try to talk me down,Keep talking dont do anything rash.Finally I got over it. But I bought it. And it looked like we would lose all our money in it. And we came very close to losing all our money in it. You can say we deserved to lose our money it.We bought it because it was an attractive security. But it was not in an attractive industry. I did the same thing in Salomon. Ibought an attractive security in a business I wouldnt have bought the equity in. So you could say that is one form of mistake. Buying something because you like the terms, but you dont like the business that well. I have done that in the past and will probably do that again.The bigger mistakes are the ones of omission. Back when I had $10,000 I put $2,000 of it into a Sinclair Service Station which I lost, so the opportunity cost on that money is about $6 billion right now--fairly big mistakes. It makes me feel good when my Berkshire goes down, because the cost of my Sinclair Station goes down too. My 20% opportunity cost. I will say this, it is better to learn from other peoples mistakes as much as possible. But we dont spend any time looking back at Berkshire. I have a partner, Charlie Munger; we have been pals for forty years—never had an argument. We disagree on things a lot but we dont have arguments about it.We never look back. We just figure there is so much to look forward to that there is no sense thinking of what we might have done. It just doesnt make any difference. You can only live life forward. You can learn something perhaps from the mistakes, but the big thing to do is to stick with the businesses you understand. So if there is a generic mistake outside your circle of competence like buying something that somebody tips you on or something of the sort. In an area you know nothing about, you should learn something from that which is to stay with what you can figure out yourself. You really want your decision making to be by looking in the mirror. Saying to yourself,I am buying 100 shares of General Motors at $55 because........It is your responsibility if you are buying it. Theres gotta be a reason and if you cant state the reason, you shouldnt buy it. If it is because someone told youabout it at a cocktail party, not good enough. It cant be because of the volume or a reason like the chart looks good. It has to be a reason to buy the business. That we stick to pretty carefully. That is one of the things Ben Graham taught me.Question: The current tenuous economic situation and interest rates? Where are we going?Buffett: I dont think about the macro stuff. What you really want to in investments is figure out what is important and knowable. If it is unimportant and unknowable, you forget about it. What you talk about is important but, in my view, it is not knowable. Understanding Coca-Cola is knowable or Wrigleys or Eastman Kodak. You can understand those businesses that are knowable. Whether it turns out to be important depends where your valuation leads you and the firms price and all that. But we have never not bought or bought a business because of any Macro feeling of any kind because it doesnt make any difference. Lets say in 1972 when we bought Sees Candy, I think Nixon put on the price controls a little bit later, but so what! We would have missed a chance to buy something for $25 million that is producing $60 million pre-tax now. We dont want to pass up the chance to do something intelligent because of some prediction about something we are no good on anyway. So we dont read or listen to in relation to macro factors at all. The typical investment counselor organization goes out and they bring out their economist and they trot him out and he gives you this big macro picture. And they start working from there on down. In our view that is nonsense.If Alan Greenspan was on the one side of me and Robert Rubin on the other side and they both were whispering in my ear exactly what they were going to do the next twelve months, itwouldnt make any difference to me what I would pay for Executive Jet or General Re or anything else I do.Question: What is the benefit of being an out-of-towner as opposed to being on Wall Street?Buffett: I worked on Wall Street for a couple of years and I have my best friends on both coasts. I like seeing them. I get ideas when I go there. But the best way to think about investments is to be in a room with no one else and just think. And if that doesnt work, nothing else is going to work. The disadvantage of being in any type of market environment like Wall Street in the extreme is that you get over-stimulated. You think you have to do something every day. The Chandler family paid $2,000 for this company (Coke). You dont have to do much else if you pick one of those. And the trick then is not to do anything else. Even not to sell at 1919, which the family did later on. So what you are looking for is some way to get one good idea a year.And then ride it to its full potential and that is very hard to do in an environment where people are shouting prices back and forth every five minutes and shoving reports in front of your nose and all that. Wall Street makes its money on activity. You make your money on inactivity.If everyone in this room trades their portfolio around every day with every other person, you will all end up broke. And the intermediary will end up with all the money. If you all own stock in a group of average businesses and just sit here for the next 50 years, you will end up with a fair amount of money and your broker will be broke. He is like the Doctor who gets paid on how often to get you to change pills. If he gave you one pill that cures you the rest of your life, he would make one sale, one transaction and that is it. But if he can convince you that changing pills everyday is the way to great health, it will be great for him and the prescriptionists. You wont be any healthier and you will be a lot worse off financially. You want to stay away from any environment that stimulates activity. And Wall Street would have the effective of doing that.When I went back to Omaha, I would go back with a whole list of companies I wanted to check out and I would get my moneys worth out of those trips, but then I would go back to Omaha and think about it.Question: How to evaluate Berkshire or MSFT if it does not pay dividends?Buffett: It wont pay any dividends either. That is a promise I can keep. All you get with Berkshire, you stick it in your safe deposit box and then every year you go down and fondle it. You take it out and then you put it back. There is enormous psychic reward in that. Dont underestimate it.The real question is if we can retain dollar bills and turn them into more than a dollar at a decent rate. That is what we try to do. And Charlie Munger and I have all our money in it to do that. That is all we will get paid for doing. We wont take any options or we wont take any salaries to speak of. But that is what we are trying to do. It gets harder all the time. The more money we manage the harder it is to do that. We would do way better percentage wise with Berkshire if it was 1/100th the present size. It is run for its owners, but it isnt run to give them dividends because so far every dollar that we earned or could have paid out, we have turned into more than a dollar. It is worth more than a dollar to keep it. Therefore, it would be silly to pay it out. Even if everyone was tax-free that owned it. It would have been a mistake to pay dividends at Berkshire. Because so far the dollarbills retained have turned into more than a dollar. But there is no guarantee that happens in the future. At some point the game runs out on that. That is what the business is about. Nothing else about the business do we judge ourselves by. We dont judge it by the size of its home office building or anything the like the number of people working there. We have 12 people working at headquarters and 45,000 employees at Berkshire, 12 people at HQ and 3,500 sq ft. and we wont change it.But we will judge ourselves by the performance of the company and that is the only way we will get paid. But believe me, it is a lot harder than it used to be.。
聪明投资者 巴菲特的成功建议：无论婚姻还是商业斤斤计较都是大毛病 “如果是职业投资者如果对自己
聪明投资者巴菲特的成功建议：无论婚姻还是商业，斤斤计较都是大毛病“如果是职业投资者、如果对自己...“如果是职业投资者、如果对自己有信心，我建议高度集中。
对于其他普通人，如果不懂投资，我建议高度分散。
”“用好生意构筑的城堡周围环绕着宽广的护城河，我们就找这样的投资机会。
”“找到好伴侣，就成功了一大半。
无论是在婚姻中，还是在商业上，斤斤计较都是个大毛病。
”巴菲特投资生涯中最后悔的事是什么？他最看重的经理人品质是什么？虽然巴菲特公开了自己的投资方法，但很少能有人模仿成功的原因又是为何？在巴菲特眼中，需要哪些努力才能配得上成功？2008年2月，巴菲特在为Emory 与Austin 大学商学院的学生答疑解惑时将上面的问题一一揭开谜底。
RanRan翻译了问答笔记全文，“聪明投资者”经授权转载，整理出了最精彩的10个问答。
巴菲特答Emory 与Austin 大学商学院学生问2008 年2 月25 日Emory oizueta Business School 和McCombs School of Business at UT Austin 的学生拜访了巴菲特先生，并与巴菲特先生进行了一系列问答。
职业投资者应高度集中，普通人要高度分散问1：随着“财富公式”(Fortune's Formula)、凯利公式的流行，投资界产生了许多关于分散与集中的争论。
我知道您支持哪一方，但是我想问的是，您能否详细告诉我们，您如何分配仓位、如何摊低成本？巴菲特：关于分散，我有两个观点。
如果是职业投资者、如果对自己有信心，我建议高度集中。
对于其他普通人，如果不懂投资，我建议高度分散。
从长期来看，经济一定越来越好。
普通人只是要注意一点，别在价格太贵或者不该买的时候买。
大多数人应该购买低手续费的指数基金，长期定投。
你是个普通人，还想耍点小聪明，每个星期花一小时研究研究投资，最后你很可能后悔自己太傻。
如果投资是你的专长，分散不符合逻辑。
巴菲特一生最经典的演讲：过去的就让他过去,人生只能向前看
巴菲特一生最经典的演讲：过去的就让他过去，人生只能向前看1998年，巴菲特在佛罗里达大学商学院做了一个超有内涵的演讲。
有读者说，这是巴菲特最经典的演讲，没有之一~“请各位提问时一定要刁钻。
你们问的问题越难，才越好玩。
”巴菲特在演讲之前是这样要求的，但他自己提的问题就有够刁钻，“假如可以从认识的人中选一个，买入他今后一生10% 的收入，你会选谁？”以下是演讲原文，经典值得珍藏，欢迎转发分享。
巴菲特在佛罗里达大学商学院的演讲1998年10月15日巴菲特：(手持麦克风)测试，1百万、2百万、3百万。
我先简单说几句，把大部分时间留下来回答大家的问题。
我想聊聊大家关心的话题。
请各位提问的时候一定要刁钻。
你们问的问题越难，才越好玩。
什么都可以问，就是不能问上个月我交了多少税，这个问题我无可奉告。
各位同学，你们毕业之后未来会怎样？我简单说说我的想法。
各位在这所大学能学到大量关于投资的知识，你们将拥有成功所需的知识。
既然各位能坐在这里，你们也拥有成功所需的智商，你们还有成功所需的拼劲。
你们大多数人都会成功地实现自己的理想。
但是最后你到底能否成功，不只取决于你的头脑和勤奋。
我简单讲一下这个道理。
奥马哈有个叫彼得·基威特的人，他说他招人的时候看三点：品行、头脑和勤奋。
他说一个人要是头脑聪明、勤奋努力，但品行不好，肯定是个祸害。
品行不端的人，最好又懒又蠢。
我知道各位都头脑聪明、勤奋努力，所以我今天只讲品行。
为了更好地思考这个问题，我们不妨一起做个游戏。
各位都是MBA二年级的学生，应该很了解自己周围的同学了。
假设现在你可以选一个同学，买入他今后一生之内10% 的收入。
你不能选富二代，只能选靠自己奋斗的人。
请各位仔细想一下，你会选班里的哪位同学，买入他今后一生之内10% 的收入。
你会给所有同学做个智商测试，选智商最高的吗？未必。
你会选考试成绩最高的吗？未必。
你会选最有拼劲的吗？不一定。
因为大家都很聪明，也都很努力，我觉得你会主要考虑定性方面的因素。
巴菲特最著名的演讲
巴菲特最著名的演讲——价值投资为什么能够持续战胜市场每个人都期望自己能成功，但是我们后来者的成功建立在大师的肩膀上才能少走弯路，才能有所突破。
自然科学的发展也证明了这一点，就像爱因斯坦不可能出现在原始社会的部落中一样，原始社会没有发现相对论的基础，也不会出现这么伟大的科学家了。
人类发展的历史永远是螺旋式的上升，可以有反复、甚至有倒退，向上的趋势将永远不变，直到最后的崩溃，崩溃的结果是另一个智慧生命的开始，宇宙间的一切都是周而复始。
有些朋友会说，前人的东西往往是不对的，是应该批判的。
但是我们能够批判的依据和思想从哪里来，不要告诉我，你从没受过人类的教育，就能够批判，其实也是来自于前人思想的积累。
希望朋友们能认真的读，如果能有所收获也就达到目的了，能够突破的话就要恭喜你了！巴菲特最著名的演讲：价值投资为什么能够持续战胜市场每个价值投资人的投资业绩都来自于利用企业股票市场价格与其内在价值之间的差异。
——巴菲特价值投资策略最终要归根于本杰明·格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）的思想。
1934年年底，他与戴维·多德（David Dodd）合作完成了他酝酿已久的《证券分析》（Security Analysis）。
这部划时代的著作标志着证券分析业和价值投资思想的诞生。
这本巨著在过去70年间共发行了五版，被誉为投资者的“圣经”。
纽约证券分析协会强调，格雷厄姆“对于投资的意义就像欧几里得对于几何学、达尔文对于生物进化论一样重要"。
格雷厄姆“给这座令人惊叹而为之却步的城市——股票市场绘制了第一张可以依赖的地图，他为价值投资奠定了方XX的基础，而在此之前，股票投资与赌博几乎毫无差别。
价值投资没有格雷厄姆，就如同共产主义没有马克思——原则性将不复存在。
”人们通常认为是格雷厄姆确立了证券分析的原则，所以格雷厄姆被尊称为"现代证券分析之父"。
1984年，在哥伦比亚大学纪念格雷厄姆与多德合著的《证券分析》出版50周年的庆祝活动中，巴菲特——这位格雷厄姆在哥伦比亚大学的投资课上唯一给了“A＋”的最优秀的学生进行了一次演讲，他在演讲中回顾了50年来格雷厄姆的追随者们采用价值投资策略持续战胜市场的无可争议的事实，总结归纳出价值投资策略的精髓，在投资界具有非常大的影响力...编者：“格雷厄姆—多德都市的超级投资者们”作为巴菲特最著名的演讲名留青史，广为流传。
巴菲特三大经典演讲之二——1998年佛罗里达大学商学院演讲
巴菲特1998年佛罗里达大学MBA讲座及英语演讲视频（中英文本）这个视频是1998年巴菲特在佛罗里达大学给MBA学生做的一个讲座，不知为何在网上又被转载起来，视频因为录制得比较早，视频效果不好，但希望中英文对照的文稿能弥补这一缺点。
巴菲特其实口才非常不错，并不是说他能讲出多少“硬货”，而是他能够把最重要的投资哲理用非常通俗易懂的比喻来告诉大家，让即使对财务分析、市盈率等黑话一窍不通的人，所以读巴菲特写的东西一点都不累。
半瓶子才能晃出声响，真正大师的话是非常简单却富有哲理的。
在这片篇超级长的演讲稿里，不但讲了投资理念，还包括了面对工作机做人的态度，耐心读完的朋友，相信一定收获颇丰。
中英对照文本：Buffett: (holds mike) Testing: One million $, two million $….three million $. I would like to say a few words primarily and then the highlight for me will be getting your questions. I want to talk about what is on your mind.巴菲特：话筒测试，100万美元，200万美元.....300万美元。
我想先讲几分钟的套话，然后我就主要来接受你们的提问。
我想谈的是你们的所思所想。
我鼓励你们给我出难题，畅所欲言，言无不尽。
I urge you to throw hard balls, it’s more fun for me if you follow speed and speeches come in end. You can ask anything about except footbal l game last week in A&M, that’s out of limits. We have come here for some from Sun Trust, I have just attend the top meeting and I sat next to Jim·Williams who runs Sun Trust for many years and he wanted to be sure that I wear this Sun Trust shirt down here.我希望你们扔些高难度的球，如果你们的投球带些速度的话，我回答起来会更有兴致.你们几乎可以问任何问题，除了上个礼拜的Texas A & M的大学橄榄球赛，那超出我所能接受的极限了。
班主任班级管理心得体会精选(10篇)
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文档下载后可定制修改，请根据实际需要进行调整和使用，谢谢!并且，本店铺为大家提供各种类型的经典范文，如工作总结、工作计划、述职报告、条据书信、合同协议、演讲致辞、心得体会、导游词、教学资料、其他范文等等，想了解不同范文格式和写法，敬请关注!Download tips: This document is carefully compiled by this editor. I hope that after you download it, it can help you solve practical problems. The document can be customized and modified after downloading, please adjust and use it according to actual needs, thank you!In addition, this shop provides you with various types of classic sample essays, such as work summary, work plan, debriefing report, article letter, contract agreement, speech, experience, tour guide, teaching materials, other sample essays, etc. I want to know Please pay attention to the different format and writing styles of sample essays!班主任班级管理心得体会精选（10篇）2023班主任班级管理心得体会精选（10篇）面对班主任对班级管理是工作那么心得体会到底应该怎么写呢?我们得到了一些心得体会以后，马上将其记录下来，通过写心得体会，可以帮助我们总结积累经验。
教师班级管理心得及收获7篇
教师班级管理心得及收获7篇教师班级管理心得及收获（精选篇1）一个班级由几十名学生组成，要培养好这些学生，就必须调动学生的思维积极性，充分发挥他们的聪明才智，充分挖掘他们的内在潜力，优化他们的成长环境，培养他们各方面的能力，使他们成长为适应时代要求的各类人才。
要达到这一目的，必须依靠作为班级的领导者和组织者的班主任，作出长期的努力和实践，通过切实有效的班级管理，才能在现代育人工程中描绘出灿烂的前景。
1 、关注单亲家庭的学生单亲家庭的学生愈来愈不好教。
这是现阶段很多老师经常挂在嘴边的一句话。
的确，很多单亲家庭的学生性格有很多的缺陷，甚至成为双差生。
作为教育者应更多地去了解，关心学生，使他们重新找回自我。
随着经济的发展，一部分家庭随着人们的婚姻，社会等意识的变化而发生破裂。
从教育的角度看，相亲相爱的父母，和谐的家庭人际关系对学生，尤其是初中生的正常，健康的心理发展产生不可替代的良好教育因素。
反之，无一个完整稳固的家庭的学生，其心理的发展容易产生偏差，思想行为上也就会常常出现这样或那样的缺陷。
为此，作为班主任就要随时关注班上的单亲学生，给其以爱，让这些学生久渴的情感得到雨露般的滋润。
2、不忘留守学生经济的发展冲击着社会的每一个角落，不甘落后的农民朋友纷纷丢下孩子，老人，到外面挣钱去了。
在他们看来只要他们在外面挣足了钱，孩子的前途就有望了。
他们不曾明白他们的孩子需要的不只是钱，需要的是父母的亲情与爱。
这些留守学生原本活泼的性格因父母的外出而变得郁郁寡欢了，原本内向的更是寡言少语了。
缺少欢乐缺少爱，他们又怎能学得好呢?为了让这些留守生健康快乐的生活，学习，无疑就要班主任给予他们家长般的关怀与关心。
天冷了，叫他们注意添加衣物，以免着凉。
回家时别忘了问候爷爷奶奶。
返校时注意安全。
尽可能地让他们感受到他们没有被忘记。
3、功能化的班级组织一个组织健全的班级，能有利于班级管理。
班主任要策划班级组织，并明确分工，让他们各司其责。
下一个20年高速增长的“成瘾性消费”好生意是啥
下一个20年高速增长的“成瘾性消费”好生意是啥作者：陈宇来源：《中国商人》2021年第08期什么叫成瘾性消费？什么叫好生意？关于成瘾性消费，我引用了清华大学一位教授的观点：成瘾性消费曾经在世界近代史过程中扮演过非常重要的角色，它不仅在大航海后成为主要的世界商品，而且成为宗主国与殖民地的贸易连接纽带。
当然，这是指对人体有害的成瘾性消费，还有一些成瘾性消费是对人体有益的，比如茶叶、咖啡、可可以及适量的糖酒。
当饮茶成为一种习惯，就是典型的成瘾标志。
成瘾性等于习惯，习惯意味着高复购率，与高复购率对应的是消费者众多，购买频次高，即这个商品可以用很低的销售费用率换得很高的收入。
怎么寻找好生意，什么叫好生意？我引用了巴菲特1998年在佛罗里达大学的演讲，他提到“时间是好生意的朋友，烂生意的敌人。
”如果长期持有好生意，就算买得贵，只要长期持有还是会取得出色的收益，这就是我们经常讲的选择比努力更重要。
好生意能够看出将来会怎样，但不知道具体是什么时候，你同时拥有的好生意不应该超过6个。
“好”是一个非常定性的概念。
什么叫好？每个人心里有不同的含义。
假如你是一个从事钢铁行业的老板，你可能觉得自己生意做得特别好，这是你的资源禀赋，但我们是投资人，我们统一运用投资人的视角。
什么叫好生意？我们引入了ROE指标，这是衡量股东回报的，我们认为ROE高的生意就是比较好的生意。
ROE取决于净利率、资产周转率和权益乘数这三个因素。
我们假定一家优秀公司经营效率不错，资产周转率和权益乘数都不错的情况下，净利率就会变得非常关键。
如果一个产品的壁垒非常高或者品牌特别强，就可以定高价，高价意味着高毛利率;如果恰好该产品又是一个成瘾性的消费，有很高的复购率，销售费用会很低，大概率净利率会非常高，ROE肯定也是不错的。
如果说我们的股市只有30年，美股的经验则是非常震撼的。
截止到2003年过去的50年，美股年化收益率前20名的公司，有8家公司是我们界定的5个好生意“烟酒茶美网”里的。
巴菲特1998年在佛罗里达的演讲稿
巴菲特1998年在佛罗里达的演讲稿
巴菲特在1998年在佛罗里达的演讲稿
尊敬的听众们，
感谢大家出席今天的演讲。
我很荣幸能够与你们分享我的一些投资见解和经验。
首先，我想谈谈投资的哲学和原则。
在我看来，投资不是一种赌博，而是一种长期的财务规划。
我推崇的是价值投资，也就是寻找被低估的股票，并且长期持有它们。
这样的投资策略需要耐心和长远的眼光，但它能够带来稳定的回报。
其次，我要强调的是投资者应该遵循巴菲特的三大原则。
第一，只投资自己理解的企业。
我们不应该去投资那些我们无法理解的行业或公司。
第二，我们应该寻找有竞争优势的企业。
这些企业能够在激烈的市场竞争中脱颖而出，并保持长期的盈利能力。
第三，我们应该关注企业的价值而不是价格。
只有当股票的价值高于其价格时，我们才应该考虑购买。
另外，我希望强调的是投资者应该学会控制自己的情绪。
市场的波动是不可避免的，但我们不能为短期的价格波动所左右。
我们应该相信自己的分析和决策，并且在市场情绪过度悲观时买入，过度乐观时卖出。
最后，我要推荐给大家一些我个人认为有潜力的投资机会。
我认为科技行业的发展会持续推动市场的增长。
特别是互联网和
计算机软件领域，还有新兴市场的消费品和金融服务领域。
这些行业拥有巨大的增长潜力，并且能够提供长期的回报。
谢谢大家的聆听。
我希望这些见解能够对你们在投资中起到一些帮助。
祝你们投资顺利！
未来的成功在于现在的决策！。
巴菲特倾囊相授5大财富智慧：不创业也能当老板
巴菲特倾囊相授5大财富智慧：不创业也能当老板1天前 |阅读原文编者按：财富或许有价，然而，财富智慧与经验的传承，却是无价珍宝！尤其在一代股神巴菲特身上，这个发自内心的智慧传承，格外令人动容。
巴菲特的26集动画课程，在教大家价值投资的同时，也培养许多做人基本原则：不能见利忘义、不要贪小便宜、听小道消息，看似简单的巴氏智慧，实行起来却一点也不容易。
拉开理财课的序幕储蓄，巴菲特认为最重要的一堂课我们将这26集动画课程依照其教育意义分为五大堂课，让读者更容易了解其中精髓。
是的，即使在一代股神的身上，老生常谈的"储蓄"仍是巴菲特认为最重要的一堂课。
唯有平日储蓄才能让你在最关键的时刻出击，抓住机会壮大自己财富。
巴菲特为大家拉开理财课的序幕，教你如何储蓄、花费。
这堂课更是所有父母亲必须传承给下一代的重要参考。
力行简约的巴菲特，从小就是个储蓄高手，他5岁就去摆地摊卖口香糖，八岁呼朋引伴到住家附近的高尔夫球场当球童捡球，并转手卖给球商获利；在11岁时，他已经存下过去几年的所得共120美元，并买了生平第一张股票"城市服务优先股"；他小小年纪竟然靠自己能力有所积蓄，还可以买股，这令他的家人惊讶不已，而高度储蓄力更是他日后成为股神的最大关键。
巴菲特曾说："有时候给孩子一把金汤匙，说不定是把金匕首。
"在妥协孩子要求的当下，更该仔细想想：让他少奋斗20年，是好的吗？顺着你的热情走做自己喜欢的事，迈向成功怎样才会成功？巴菲特与国际投资大师吉姆?罗杰斯的答案一致：做你喜欢的事。
在巴菲特给孩子的第二堂课中谈到的是迈向成功，成功有几个步骤，第一重要的就是做自己喜欢的事，只有找到自己热情和兴趣，才能真正发挥天赋。
吉姆·罗杰斯在《给宝贝女儿的十二封信》一书中提到，女儿不必成为一位投资家，如果喜欢烧菜，应该开一家餐馆；如果喜欢做园丁，说不定日后会有一家全球连锁园艺店。
巴菲特1998年在佛罗里达大学的一次演讲
巴菲特1998年在佛罗里达大学的一次演讲绝大部分大家在这问的问题，这个讲话里都回答了。
显然比我讲的清楚，懂英文的可以看看和听听。
我自己没事就听(看）一遍。
找到中文的了，copy如下：巴菲特1998年在佛罗里达大学的一次演讲(一) 【翻译：易晓斓】这里翻译的不是一篇文章，而是一个Video。
确切的说，是Warrent Buffet （巴菲特）在University of Florida商学院的一次演讲。
在演讲里，巴菲特谈投资，谈做人，使译者受益匪浅。
在这里翻出来以飨读者。
我想先讲几分钟的套话，然后我就主要来接受你们的提问。
我想谈的是你们的所思所想。
我鼓励你们给我出难题，畅所欲言，言无不尽。
（原文：我希望你们扔些高难度的球，如果你们的投球带些速度的话，我回答起来会更有兴致）你们几乎可以问任何问题，除了上个礼拜的Texas A&M的大学橄榄球赛，那超出我所能接受的极限了。
我们这里来了几个SunTrust（译者注：美国一家大型商业银行）的人。
我刚刚参加完Coca Cola的股东大会（译者注：Warren Buffett 的投资公司是Coca Cola的长期大股东之一），我坐在吉米*威廉姆斯边上。
吉米领导了SunTrust多年。
吉米一定让我穿上这件SunTrust的T恤到这来。
我一直试着让老年高尔夫联盟给我赞助，但是都无功而返。
没想到我在SunTrust这，却做的不错。
吉米说，基于SunTrust存款的增长，我会得到一定比例的酬劳。
所以我为SunTrust鼓劲。
（译者注：巴菲特在开玩笑）关于你们走出校门后的前程，我在这里只想讲一分钟。
你们在这里已经学了很多关于投资方面的知识，你们学会如何做好事情，你们有足够的IQ能做好，你们也有动力和精力来做好，否则你们就不会在这里了。
你们中的许多人都将最终实现你们的理想。
但是在智能和能量之外，还有更多的东西来决定你是否成功，我想谈谈那些东西。
实际上，在我们Omaha（译者注：Berkshire Hathaway 公司的总部所在地）有一位先生说，当他雇人时，他会看三个方面：诚信，智能，和精力。
【百度文库-3分钟经典英文演讲】巴菲特1998年在佛罗里达大学的MBA讲座
巴菲特1998年在佛罗里达大学的MBA讲座（节选）巴菲特是世界著名的投资商，2008年以净资产620亿美元成为世界首富。
2019年3月5日（纽约时间），巴菲特以825亿美元在2019年福布斯全球亿万富豪榜中排名第3。
这篇演讲稿是1998年巴菲特在佛罗里达大学给MBA学生做的一个讲座，巴菲特口才非常不错，并不是说他能讲出多少“硬货”，而是他能够把最重要的投资哲理用非常通俗易懂的比喻来告诉大家，让即使对财务分析、市盈率等黑话一窍不通的人也能听懂，所以读巴菲特写的东西一点都不累。
在演讲中，巴菲特不但讲了投资理念，还包括了面对工作及做人的态度。
因为演讲稿太长，此处节选一部分巴菲特关于未来和人生态度的观点给大家。
大家也可以网上找到原文耐心读完，相信一定收获颇丰。
I would like to talk for just one minute to the students about your future when you leave here. Because you will learn a tremendous amount about investments, you all have the ability to do well; you all have the IQ to do well. You all have the energyand initiative to do well or you wouldn't be here.关于你们走出校门后的前程，我在这里只想讲一分钟。
你们在这里已经学了很多关于投资方面的知识，你们学会如何做好事情，你们有足够的IQ能做好，你们也有动力和精力来做好，否则你们就不会在这里了。
Most of you will succeed in meeting your aspirations. But in determining whether you succeed there is more to it than intellect and energy. I would like to talk just a second about that. In fact, there was a guy, Pete Kiewit in Omaha, who used to say, he looked for three things in hiring people: integrity, intelligence and energy. And he said if the person did not have the first two, the later two would kill him, because if they don't have integrity, you want them dumb and lazy.你们中的许多人都将最终实现你们的理想。
Warrent
Warrent Buffet 先⽣的投资经营思想－16条Warrent Buffet（巴菲特）在University of Florida商学院（佛罗⾥达⼤学）演讲闪烁着慈祥和智慧的光芒。
下⾯的16段原话，读起来真的是妙趣横⽣，受益匪浅。
1、当你下赌注时，可能会选择那个你最有认同感的⼈，那个最有领导才能的⼈，那个能实现他⼈利益的⼈，那个慷慨，诚实，即使是他⾃⼰的主意，也会把功劳分予他⼈的⼈。
2、不要做低回报率的⽣意。
时间是好⽣意的朋友，却是坏⽣意的敌⼈。
如果你陷在糟糕的⽣意⾥太久的话，你的结果也⼀定会糟糕，即使你的买⼊价很便宜。
如果你在⼀桩好⽣意⾥，即使你开始多付了⼀点额外的成本，如果你做的⾜够久的话，你的回报⼀定是可观的。
3、⽤对你重要的东西去冒险赢得对你并不重要的东西，简直⽆可理喻，即使你成功的概率是100⽐1，或1000⽐1。
4、抛开其他因素，如果你单纯的⾼兴做⼀项⼯作，那么那就是你应该做的⼯作。
你会学到很多东西，⼯作起来也会觉得有⽆穷的乐趣。
5、我给那些公司经理⼈的要求就是，让城墙更厚些，保护好它，拒竞争者于墙外。
你可以通过服务，产品质量，价钱，成本，专利，地理位置来达到⽬的。
6、我要找的⽣意就是简单，容易理解，经济上⾏得通，诚实，能⼲的管理层。
这样，我就能看清这个企业10年的⼤⽅向。
如果我做不到这⼀点，我是不会买的。
基本上来讲，我只会买那些，即使纽约证交所从明天起关门五年，我也很乐于拥有的股票。
如果我买个农场，即使五年内我不知道它的价格，但只要农场运转正常，我就⾼兴。
如果我买个公寓群，只要它们能租出去，带来预计的回报，我也⼀样⾼兴。
7、⼈们买股票，根据第⼆天早上股票价格的涨跌，决定他们的投资是否正确，这简直是扯淡。
正如格雷厄姆所说的，你要买的是企业的⼀部分⽣意。
这是格雷厄姆教给我的最基本最核⼼的策略。
你买的不是股票，你买的是⼀部分企业⽣意。
企业好，你的投资就好，只要你的买⼊价格不是太离谱。
口译现场 史上最全的口译场景分析 视频等等
口译现场口译资料英语采访美剧天下欧美影视英语视频口译现场（视频+文本）————经典口译视频资料伦敦20国峰会英国首相布朗记者招待会（视频+文本）伦敦20国峰会奥巴马记者招待会（视频+文本）口译现场：09两会-杨洁篪答中外记者全程交传视频口译现场：2月21日希拉里与杨洁篪（视频+文本）口译现场：十一届人大二次会议就扩内需促就业保增长举行记者会090310口译现场：李肇星十一届全国人大二次会议首场新闻发布会同传现场：商务部人保部发布会（一个半小时）口译现场：李毅中在人大两会中发言（只有记者提问时才有口译，其他部分无口译）同传现场：2009温家宝政府工作报告（英文同传版+中文温家宝版+中英文档）口译现场：09.3.13温家宝答记者问（全程口译视频）（视频+中英对照）口译资料：温家宝在剑桥大学的演讲（视频1小时13分钟）2009世界经济论坛年会开幕式（世界经济论坛主席施瓦布致辞+瑞士联邦主席默茨致辞+俄罗斯总理普京演讲）（视频+中英文本）口译资料：温家宝在世界经济论坛2009年年会上的讲话视频口译资料：奥巴马总统就职典礼前林肯纪念堂(Lincoln Memorial)演讲视频口译资料：世界经济论坛2009年会--会前记者招待会奥巴马就职典礼庆祝音乐会（2小时）（视频22分钟+中英文本）口译资料：奥巴马就职演说（视频演讲--附9个视频+幻灯片）口译资料：Subtle Art of Doing Business with the Chinese同传现场：（视频+文本）胡锦涛在第七届亚欧首脑会议上的讲话同传现场：（视频+文本）第七届亚欧首脑会议记者招待会胡锦涛主席在日本早稻田大学的演讲2007博鳌论坛2005年世界经济论坛年会黄菊汉英同传国务院新闻办——中国就业政策和状况国务院新闻办——国家安全生产监督管理局副局长报告李肇星就国际形势和我国外交工作答中外记者问口译：9月2日布什参与古斯塔夫飓风会商并谈及能源问题奥巴马在阵亡将士纪念日的演讲（中英对照+视频）布什总统在耶鲁大学毕业典礼上的演讲八国峰会胡锦涛主席与布什总统会晤现场翻译（附音频）妮可基德曼“口译”面试NBC版本的2008北京奥运会开幕式下载，口译资料：看看白宫里面什么样（54分钟视频）（英文字幕）视频口译资料：奥巴马经济顾问委员会主任Christina Romer谈论一份关于就业机会的报告口译资料：国际货币基金组织懂事总经理2008年12月15日西班牙讲话（视频+译文）口译资料：奥巴马首次发表网络视频讲话经典名人演讲（含视频）比尔盖茨在上海交大的演讲比尔盖茨CES2008演讲比尔盖茨斯坦福大学的演讲Tom Brokaw在斯坦福大学06毕业典礼上的演讲Dana Gioia 在斯坦福大学07毕业典礼上的演讲Oprah Winfrey在斯坦福大学08毕业典礼上的演讲布什总统在耶鲁大学毕业典礼上的演讲布莱尔在清华大学的演讲沃伦·巴菲特：巴菲特在佛罗里达大学的演讲北大教授朱苏力在美国大学的演讲克林顿演讲时全场像明星演唱会一样美国优秀教师莱福•艾斯奎斯演讲理查安利十周年庆典晚会上演讲克林顿在清华就艾滋病等问题发表演讲(实录)布什介绍椭圆形办公室林毅夫《剑桥马歇尔讲座》马云在英国演讲视频(英文)比尔盖茨北大演讲比尔·盖茨博鳌亚洲论坛发表演讲比尔盖茨在清华大学的演讲J·K·罗琳在哈佛大学08年毕业典礼上的演讲第十一届21世纪全国英语演讲比赛前十名选手的精彩视频（视频+中英文本）口译资料：布什2009告别演说（视频演讲）口译资料：Speech by a school girl in UN conference on environment（视频+文本）2008美国总统大选汇总帖（总统辩论及分析+民主党大会各演讲+共和党大会各演讲）总统辩论及分析：《2008年美国总统第一场辩论》在线观看+文本《2008年美国总统第一场辩论》分析《2008年美国总统第二场辩论》在线观看+文本《2008年美国总统第二场辩论》分析《2008年美国总统第三场辩论》在线观看+文本《2008年美国总统第三场辩论》分析 The Grand Finale《2008年美国副总统辩论》在线观看+文本《2008年美国副总统辩论》分析民主党大会各演讲：《奥巴马8月28日在民主党大会接受总统候选人提名演说》在线观看+文本《Joseph R. Biden民主党大会接受副总统候选人提名演讲》在线观看+文本《比尔·克林顿8月27日在民主党大会上声援奥巴马演说》在线观看+文本《希拉里8月26日在民主党大会上声援奥巴马演说》在线观看+文本《2008美国大选民主党大会上Michelle Obama演讲》在线观看+文本《2008美国大选民主党大会上Edward Kennedy演讲》在线观看+文本《2008美国大选民主党大会上Al Gore演讲》在线观看+文本共和党大会各演讲：《麦凯恩共和党大会接受总统候选人提名演说》在线观看+文本《佩林9月3号在共和党大会接受副总统候选人提名演说》在线观看+文本《2008美国大选共和党大会上Rudy Giuliani 演讲》在线观看+文本《2008美国大选共和党大会上Joe Lieberman 演讲》在线观看+文本《2008美国大选共和党大会上布什演讲》在线观看+文本颁奖典礼《第81届奥斯卡颁奖典礼》完整版 175分钟第81届奥斯卡颁奖典礼红地毯2009年全英音乐奖颁奖典礼全场完整呈现2009第51届格莱美颁奖典礼149分钟完整版（中文字幕）35届人民选择奖颁奖典礼（35th People's Choice Awards）欧美影视：第66届美国金球奖颁奖典礼(CCTV-6，中文字幕)口译文本资料————演讲文稿（中英对照）口译资料：中国政府白皮书《中国的减灾行动》（中英对照）口译资料：杨洁篪在外交部五四青年节开放日上的致辞（中英对照）口译资料：大学生公众代表在外交部“五四”青年节大学生专场公众开放日上的发言（中英对照）口译资料：中欧应扩大合作共同反对贸易保护主义（王岐山撰文）（中英对照）口译资料：曾培炎在博鳌亚洲论坛2009年年会午餐会上的讲话（中英对照）口译资料：郑新立在博鳌亚洲论坛年会上的发言（中英对照）口译资料：刘结一部长助理在联合国亚太经社会第65届会议一般性辩论中的发言（中英对照）（原稿+译稿）温家宝在2009博鳌亚洲论坛开幕式上的演讲口译资料：精诚携手共克时艰——驻悉尼总领事胡山谈中国与新州合作关系（原稿+译文）口译资料：上海合作组织阿富汗问题特别会议中方讲话（中英对照）胡锦涛在G20国金融峰会上的讲话（中英对照）口译资料：4月1日《中法新闻公报》全文(中英对照)口译资料：上海合作组织成员国和阿富汗伊斯兰共和国关于打击恐怖主义、毒品走私和有组织犯罪的声明（中英对照）口译资料：2009年2月27日中国商务部长陈德铭在中英经贸合作研讨会致辞（中英对照）口译资料：09.3.12杨洁篪在美国战略与国际问题研究中心演讲（中英对照）口译资料：杨洁篪部长第十八届世界公共关系大会上做主旨发言（中英对照）口译资料：戴秉国在美国布鲁金斯学会发表纪念中美建交30周年演讲（中英对照）口译资料：何亚非副部长在安理会索马里海盗问题部长级会议上的发言（中英对照）口译资料：2008诺贝尔奖颁奖典礼开幕辞口译资料：英国首相布朗、法国总统萨科齐和欧盟委员会主席巴罗佐8日在伦敦的新闻发布会口译资料：第五次中美战略经济对话成果情况说明口译资料：加拿大总理电视演-讲抨击反对党结盟口译资料：奥巴马感恩节发表讲话鼓励国人挺过难关口译资料：胡锦涛在APEC第16次领导人非正式会议上的讲话（中英对照）口译资料：欧盟主席巴罗佐国家行政学院讲话口译资料：胡锦涛在APEC工商领导人峰会上的演讲（中英对照）口译资料：适应时代的需要，发挥建设性作用--前中国央行行长戴相龙二十国集团成立十周年感想（中英对照）口译资料：美国《新闻周刊》独家专访温家宝：我们应携手合作（中英对照）口译资料：刘振民大使在联大审议联合国建设和平委员会报告及秘书长关于建设和平基金报告时的发言（中英对照）温家宝出席美国友好团体欢迎午宴就中美关系发表演讲（中英对照）温家宝在联合国千年发展目标高级别会议上的讲话（中英对照）温家宝在2008年世界经济论坛（夏季达沃斯论坛）上的讲话（中英对照）王光亚大使在联合国发起支持中国汶川地震灾区早期恢复呼吁会议上的讲话（中英对照）杨洁篪外长在联合国非洲发展高级别会议上的讲话（中英对照）温家宝在第63届联大一般性辩论上的发言（中英对照）2008年刘淇在北京奥运会闭幕式上的致辞（中英对照）2008年残奥委会主席克雷文在北京残奥会开幕式的致辞（中英对照）2008年刘淇在北京残奥会开幕式上的致辞（中英对照）2008年胡锦涛在欢迎出席残奥会贵宾宴会上的祝酒词（中英对照）2008年残奥委会主席克雷文在北京残奥会闭幕式的致辞（中英对照）口译：2008年罗格在国际奥委会第120次全会开幕式上的讲话（中英对照）口译：2008年胡锦涛在北京奥运会欢迎宴会上的祝酒词（中英对照）口译：奥巴马在阵亡将士纪念日的演讲（中英对照）口译：胡锦涛博鳌亚洲论坛2008年年会开幕式上演讲【中英对照】罗格在奥运开幕式+闭幕式发言（中英对照）其他资料资料下载：美国19家银行测试报告概述（PDF，38页）英国政府发布的《流感信息宣传手册》（中英Pdf版本）口译资料：崇泉部长助理在中欧知识产权高层论坛上的演讲（中英对照）口译资料：博鳌亚洲论坛简介（全文）National Human Rights Action Plan of China (2009-2010)口译资料：全国人民代表大会常务委员会工作报告（中英对照）（中英对照）经典口译资料：中美能源与气候变化合作路线图（PDF报告58页英文+54页中文+新闻发布会信息）口译资料：比尔与美琳达·盖茨基金会(Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)2009年度报告（附视频）口译资料：英方首次公开发表对华战略文件《英中合作框架》--(The UK and China: A framework for engagement )口译资料：中日韩领导人会议发表《中日韩合作行动计划》（中英对照）口译资料：中日韩《三国伙伴关系联合声明》（中英对照）口译资料：中美战略经济对话介绍-China-U.S. Strategic Economic Dialogue 口译资料：20国集团通过应对当前金融危机的《华盛顿声明》口译资料：20国集团介绍口译资料：20国集团财政部长与央行行长会议公报口译资料：中越联合声明口译资料：G20领导人金融市场和世界经济峰会——专题整理口译资料：二十国集团金融市场和世界经济峰会的宣言（音频+文本）口译资料：11月14日布什在G20金融市场和世界经济峰会前宴会上的讲话（音频+文本）口译资料：11月15日布什在G20金融市场和世界经济峰会结束记者招待会上的讲话口译资料：20国集团财政部长与央行行长会议公报口译资料：胡锦涛在二十国集团领导人金融市场和世界经济峰会上的讲话口译资料：适应时代的需要，发挥建设性作用--前中国央行行长戴相龙二十国集团成立十周年感想口译资料：20国集团通过应对当前金融危机的《华盛顿声明》口译资料：20国集团介绍口译资料：第七届亚欧首脑会议汇总贴（胡锦涛温家宝演讲+开幕式+记者招待会+三份文件）同传现场：同传现场：（视频+文本）胡锦涛在第七届亚欧首脑会议上的讲话同传现场：第七届亚欧首脑会议开幕式同传现场：（视频+文本）第七届亚欧首脑会议记者招待会口译资料：温家宝在第七届亚欧首脑会议上的讲话（中英对照）口译资料：口译资料：第七届亚欧首脑会议关于国际金融形势的声明（中英对照）口译资料：第七届亚欧首脑会议主席声明（中文+英文）口译资料：第七届亚欧首脑会议-可持续发展北京宣言（中文+英文）中高口二阶段练习素材系列中高口二阶段练习素材：金融危机与亚洲中高口二阶段练习素材：危机中的中英合作中高口二阶段练习素材：庆祝和展望中高口二阶段练习素材：知识产权中高口二阶段练习素材：回顾2008成就中高口二阶段练习素材：加强中美经济关系的四点建议奥巴马+希拉里——近期演讲系列（视频+文本）奥巴马：奥巴马演讲：应对甲型H1N1流感（视频下载+文本）希拉里阐述奥巴马政府外交政策（视频+文本）奥巴马访弱势群体学校发表演讲（视频+文本）奥巴马+副总统演讲：美国复苏与再投资法案奥巴马复活节演讲（视频下载+文本）奥巴马访问土耳其兜售新战略（视频+文本）奥巴马就美国汽车业形势发表讲话（音频+文本）奥巴马阿富汗巴基斯坦新战略（音频+文本）3月24日奥巴马新闻发布会（音频+文本）奥巴马：美国伊朗能有新开始（视频+文本）奥巴马演讲：小企业救助计划（视频+文本）希拉里：希拉里International Roma Day演讲（视频+文本）希拉里美洲开发银行会议演讲（视频+文本）希拉里阐述奥巴马政府外交政策（视频+文本）希拉里演讲：领跑世界能源环境合作（视频+文本）。
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巴菲特1998年在佛罗里达大学的一次演讲绝大部分大家在这问的问题，这个讲话里都回答了。
显然比我讲的清楚，懂英文的可以看看和听听。
我自己没事就听(看）一遍。
找到中文的了，copy如下：巴菲特1998年在佛罗里达大学的一次演讲(一) 【翻译：易晓斓】这里翻译的不是一篇文章，而是一个Video。
确切的说，是Warrent Buffet （巴菲特）在University of Florida商学院的一次演讲。
在演讲里，巴菲特谈投资，谈做人，使译者受益匪浅。
在这里翻出来以飨读者。
我想先讲几分钟的套话，然后我就主要来接受你们的提问。
我想谈的是你们的所思所想。
我鼓励你们给我出难题，畅所欲言，言无不尽。
（原文：我希望你们扔些高难度的球，如果你们的投球带些速度的话，我回答起来会更有兴致）你们几乎可以问任何问题，除了上个礼拜的Texas A&M的大学橄榄球赛，那超出我所能接受的极限了。
我们这里来了几个SunTrust（译者注：美国一家大型商业银行）的人。
我刚刚参加完Coca Cola的股东大会（译者注：Warren Buffett 的投资公司是Coca Cola的长期大股东之一），我坐在吉米*威廉姆斯边上。
吉米领导了SunTrust多年。
吉米一定让我穿上这件SunTrust的T恤到这来。
我一直试着让老年高尔夫联盟给我赞助，但是都无功而返。
没想到我在SunTrust这，却做的不错。
吉米说，基于SunTrust存款的增长，我会得到一定比例的酬劳。
所以我为SunTrust鼓劲。
（译者注：巴菲特在开玩笑）关于你们走出校门后的前程，我在这里只想讲一分钟。
你们在这里已经学了很多关于投资方面的知识，你们学会如何做好事情，你们有足够的IQ能做好，你们也有动力和精力来做好，否则你们就不会在这里了。
你们中的许多人都将最终实现你们的理想。
但是在智能和能量之外，还有更多的东西来决定你是否成功，我想谈谈那些东西。
实际上，在我们Omaha（译者注：Berkshire Hathaway 公司的总部所在地）有一位先生说，当他雇人时，他会看三个方面：诚信，智能，和精力。
雇一个只有智能和精力，却没有诚信的人会毁了雇者。
一个没有诚信的人，你只能希望他愚蠢和懒惰，而不是聪明和精力充沛。
我想谈的是第一点，因为我知道你们都具备后两点。
在考虑这个问题时，请你们和我一起玩玩这个游戏。
你们现在都是在MBA的第二年，所以你们对自己的同学也应该都了解了。
现在我给你们一个来买进10％的你的一个同学的权利，一直到他的生命结束。
你不能选那些有着富有老爸的同学，每个人的成果都要靠他自己的努力。
我给你一个小时来想这个问题，你愿意买进哪一个同学余生的10％。
你会给他们做一个IQ测试吗，选那个IQ值最高的？我很怀疑。
你会挑那个学习成绩最好的吗，我也怀疑。
你也不一定会选那个最精力充沛的，因为你自己本身就已经动力十足了。
你可能会去寻找那些质化的因素，因为这里的每个人都是很有脑筋的。
你想了一个小时之后，当你下赌注时，可能会选择那个你最有认同感的人，那个最有领导才能的人，那个能实现他人利益的人，那个慷慨，诚实，即使是他自己的主意，也会把功劳分予他人的人。
所有这些素质，你可以把这些你所钦佩的素质都写下来。
（你会选择）那个你最钦佩的人。
然后，我这里再给你们下个跘儿。
在你买进10％你的同学时，你还要卖出10％的另外一个人。
这不是很有趣吗？你会想我到底卖谁呢？你可能还是不会找IQ最低的。
你可能会选那个让你厌恶的同学，以及那些令你讨厌的品质。
那个你不愿打交道的人，其他人也不愿意与之打交道的人。
是什么品质导致了那一点呢？你能想出一堆来，比如不够诚实，爱占小便宜等等这些，你可以把它们写在纸的右栏。
当你端详纸的左栏和右栏时，会发现有意思的一点。
能否将橄榄球扔出60码之外并不重要，是否能在9秒3之内跑100码也不重要，是否是班上最好看的也无关大局。
真正重要的是那些在纸上左栏里的品质。
如果你愿意的话，你可以拥有所有那些品质。
那些行动，脾气，和性格的品质，都是可以做到的。
它们不是我们在座的每一位力所不能及的。
再看看那些右栏里那些让你厌恶的品质，没有一项是你不得不要的。
如果你有的话，你也可以改掉。
在你们这个年纪，改起来比在我这个年纪容易得多，因为大多数这些行为都是逐渐固定下来的。
人们都说习惯的枷锁开始轻得让人感受不到，一旦你感觉到的时候，已经是沉重得无法去掉了。
我认为说得很对。
我见过很多我这个年纪或者比我还年轻10岁，20岁的人，有着自我破坏性习惯而又难以自拔，他们走到哪里都招人厌恶。
他们不需要那样，但是他们已经无可救药。
但是，在你们这个年纪，任何习惯和行为模式都可以有，只要你们愿意，就只是一个选择的问题。
就象本杰明.格拉姆（上个世纪中叶著名的金融投资家）一样，在他还是十几岁的少年时，他四顾看看那些令人尊敬的人，他想我也要做一个被人尊敬的人，为什么我不象那些人一样行事呢？他发现那样去做并不是不可能的。
他对那些令人讨厌的品质采取了与此相反的方式而加以摒弃。
所以我说，如果你把那些品质都写下来，好好思量一下，择善而从，你自己可能就是那个你愿意买入10％的人！更好的是你自己本就100％的拥有你自己了。
这就是我今天要讲的。
(注：我非常喜欢这一段，讲的就是integrety高于一切。
）下面就让我们开始谈谈你们所感兴趣的。
我们可以从这儿或那儿举起的手开始。
下面是巴菲特的演讲的第二部分，主要集中于与学生们的问答交流。
问题：你对日本的看法？巴菲特：我不是一个太宏观的人。
现在日本10年期的贷款利息只有1％。
我对自己说，45年前，我上了本杰明.格拉姆的课程，然后我就一直勤勤恳恳，努力工作，也许我应该比1％挣的多点吧？看上去那不是不可能的。
我不想卷入任何汇率波动的风险，所以我会选择以日元为基准的资产，如地产或企业，必须是日本国内的。
我唯一需要做的就是挣得比1％多，因为那是我资金的成本。
可直到现在，我还没有发现一家可以投资的生意。
这真的很有趣。
日本企业的资产回报率都很低。
他们有少数企业会有4％，5％，或6％的回报。
如果日本企业本身赚不了多少钱的话，那么其资产投资者是很难获得好的回报的。
当然，有一些人也赚了钱。
我有一个同期为本杰明.格拉姆工作过的朋友。
那是我第一次买股票的方法，即寻找那些股票价格远低于流动资本的公司，非常便宜但又有一点素质的公司。
我管那方法叫雪茄烟蒂投资法。
你满地找雪茄烟蒂，终于你找到一个湿透了的，令人讨厌的烟蒂，看上去还能抽上一口。
那一口可是免费的。
你把它捡起来，抽上最后一口，然后扔了，接着找下一个。
这听上去一点都不优雅，但是如果你找的是一口免费的雪茄烟，这方法还值得做。
不要做低回报率的生意。
时间是好生意的朋友，却是坏生意的敌人。
如果你陷在糟糕的生意里太久的话，你的结果也一定会糟糕，即使你的买入价很便宜。
如果你在一桩好生意里，即使你开始多付了一点额外的成本，如果你做的足够久的话，你的回报一定是可观的。
我现在从日本没发现什么好生意。
也可能日本的文化会作某些改变，比如他们的管理层可能会对公司股票的责任多一些，这样回报率会高些。
但目前来看，我看到的都是一些低回报率的公司，即使是在日本经济高速发展的时候。
说来也令人惊奇，因为日本这样一个完善巨大的市场却不能产生一些优秀的高回报的公司。
日本的优秀只体现在经济总量上，而不是涌现一些优质的公司（译者注：对中国而言，这样的问题何止严重10倍！）。
这个问题已经给日本带来麻烦了。
我们到现在为止对日本还是没什么兴趣。
只要那的利息还是1％，我们会继续持观望态度。
问题：有传闻说，你成为长期资金管理基金的救场买家？你在那里做了什么？你看到了什么机会？（译者注：长期资金管理基金是一家著名的对冲基金。
1994年创立。
创立后的头些年盈利可观，年均40％以上。
但是，在1998年，这家基金在4个月里损失了46个亿，震惊世界）巴菲特：在最近的一篇财富杂志（封面是鲁本.默多克）上的文章里讲了事情的始末。
有点意思。
是一个冗长的故事，我这里就不介绍来龙去脉了。
我接了一个非常慎重的关于长期资金管理基金的电话。
那是4个星期前的一个星期五的下午吧。
我孙女的生日Party在那个傍晚。
在之后的晚上，我会飞到西雅图，参加比尔.盖茨的一个12天的阿拉斯加的私人旅程。
所以我那时是一点准备都没有的。
于是星期五我接了这个电话，整个事情变得严重起来。
在财富的文章发表之前，我还通了其他一些相关电话。
我认识他们（译者注：长期资金管理基金的人），他们中的一些人我还很熟。
很多人都在所罗门兄弟公司工作过。
事情很关键。
美联储周末派了人过去（译者注：纽约）。
在星期五到接下来的周三这段时间里，纽约储备局导演了没有联邦政府资金卷入的长期资金管理基金的救赎行动。
我很活跃。
但是我那时的身体状况很不好，因为我们那时正在阿拉斯加的一些峡谷里航行，而我对那些峡谷毫无兴趣。
船长说我们朝着可以看到北极熊的方向航行，我告诉船长朝着可以稳定接收到卫星信号的方向航行（才是重要的）（译者注：巴菲特在开玩笑，意思是他在船上，却一直心系手边的工作）。
星期三的早上，我们出了一个报价。
那时，我已经在蒙塔那（译者注：美国西北部的一个州）了。
我和纽约储备局的头儿通了话。
他们在10点会和一批银行家碰头。
我把意向传达过去了。
纽约储备局在10点前给在怀俄明（译者注：美国西北部的一个州）的我打了电话。
我们做了一个报价。
那确实只是一个大概的报价，因为我是在远程（不可能完善细节性的东西）。
最终，我们对2.5亿美元的净资产做了报价,但我们会在那之上追加30到32.5亿左右。
Berkshire Hathaway（巴菲特的投资公司）分到30个亿, AIG 有7个亿, Goldman Sachs有3个亿。
我们把投标交了上去，但是我们的投标时限很短，因为你不可能对价值以亿元计的证券在一段长时间内固定价格，我也担心我们的报价会被用来作待价而沽的筹码。
最后，银行家们把合同搞定了。
那是一个有意思的时期。
整个长期资金管理基金的历史，我不知道在座的各位对它有多熟悉，其实是波澜壮阔的。
如果你把那16个人，象John Meriwether, Eric Rosenfeld，Larry Hilibrand，Greg Hawkins, Victor Haghani，还有两个诺贝尔经济学奖的获得者，Myron Scholes和Robert Merton，放在一起，可能很难再从任何你能想像得到的公司中，包括象微软这样的公司，找到另外16个这样高IQ 的一个团队。
那真的是一个有着难以置信的智商的团队，而且他们所有人在业界都有着大量的实践经验。
他们可不是一帮在男装领域赚了钱，然后突然转向证券的人。
这16个人加起来的经验可能有350年到400年，而且是一直专精于他们目前所做的。