《经济学人》我国调查分析报告之二
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World growth fantastic
best for 20 years in 2004
developed and emerging markets surging ahead
Exceptional times cannot last
tipping point may have already passed
Supply chain efficiencies, acquisitions
The business experience
Gap between expectations and reality
China is not an easy business environment
Regulation, competition, local protection, legal framework, infrastructure, skill levels
World growth fantastic
China is 6th largest economy at market prices, 2nd at PPP, growing at 9%
Exceptional times cannot last
Chinese policy tightening impacts domestically and also elsewhere
Macroeconomic stability not assured
Irrational exuberance Foreign and domestic
exports
4.0
but the euro
3.5
restocking, capex
3.0
business subdued
2.5
consumers
2.0
jobs, pensions
1.5
1.0
Policy boost?
0.5
debt levels
0.0
Q1-98 Q3-99 Q1-01 Q3-02 Q1-04 Q3-05
Commodities, trade
Slowdown likely, but risks of worse
Soft landings are hard to engineer
some investors will be hurt
The business response—FDI
EIU survey of 500 business executives’ foreign direct investment strategies
Export deceleration will stall reform
still a long way to go before domestic recovery in place
Euro zone outlook
Only a sluggish recovery 4.5 GDP growth, %
China the key focus
New consumer markets, low-cost labour, new business markets
India the challenger
Skilled labour, R&D, outsourcing
US & eurozone dominate ‘operating criteria’
international liquidity is tightening coping with the transition
global policy tightening will slow world growth
Slowdown likely, but risks of worse
But risk appetite has fallen sharply
past 18mths were extraordinary
but investors now leaving spreads rising
China’s role in the global story
Key points for 2004-05
Restraining factors
debts are high, spare capacity, assets prices vulnerable, external deficit
2004 are great, but business conditions tougher in 2005-06?
pension fears
RefΒιβλιοθήκη Baidurm efforts?
Y-on-Y
The emerging world
Benefiting from OECD pickup
import demand surging
Selling into other emerging markets
regional trade dynamics
United States outlook
Recent performance stunning
more to come in the year ahead
But policy stimulus being withdrawn
strong momentum, but balance sheets?
Japan
Domestic economy is restructuring
under cover of export led growth
But needs more time
SME weakness, overcapacity, no pricing power
cannot yet offset export slowdown
China and the global economy
Why ignoring China is no longer an option.....
Robin Bew, Chief Economist
June 2004
The global outlook
Key points for 2004-05
best for 20 years in 2004
developed and emerging markets surging ahead
Exceptional times cannot last
tipping point may have already passed
Supply chain efficiencies, acquisitions
The business experience
Gap between expectations and reality
China is not an easy business environment
Regulation, competition, local protection, legal framework, infrastructure, skill levels
World growth fantastic
China is 6th largest economy at market prices, 2nd at PPP, growing at 9%
Exceptional times cannot last
Chinese policy tightening impacts domestically and also elsewhere
Macroeconomic stability not assured
Irrational exuberance Foreign and domestic
exports
4.0
but the euro
3.5
restocking, capex
3.0
business subdued
2.5
consumers
2.0
jobs, pensions
1.5
1.0
Policy boost?
0.5
debt levels
0.0
Q1-98 Q3-99 Q1-01 Q3-02 Q1-04 Q3-05
Commodities, trade
Slowdown likely, but risks of worse
Soft landings are hard to engineer
some investors will be hurt
The business response—FDI
EIU survey of 500 business executives’ foreign direct investment strategies
Export deceleration will stall reform
still a long way to go before domestic recovery in place
Euro zone outlook
Only a sluggish recovery 4.5 GDP growth, %
China the key focus
New consumer markets, low-cost labour, new business markets
India the challenger
Skilled labour, R&D, outsourcing
US & eurozone dominate ‘operating criteria’
international liquidity is tightening coping with the transition
global policy tightening will slow world growth
Slowdown likely, but risks of worse
But risk appetite has fallen sharply
past 18mths were extraordinary
but investors now leaving spreads rising
China’s role in the global story
Key points for 2004-05
Restraining factors
debts are high, spare capacity, assets prices vulnerable, external deficit
2004 are great, but business conditions tougher in 2005-06?
pension fears
RefΒιβλιοθήκη Baidurm efforts?
Y-on-Y
The emerging world
Benefiting from OECD pickup
import demand surging
Selling into other emerging markets
regional trade dynamics
United States outlook
Recent performance stunning
more to come in the year ahead
But policy stimulus being withdrawn
strong momentum, but balance sheets?
Japan
Domestic economy is restructuring
under cover of export led growth
But needs more time
SME weakness, overcapacity, no pricing power
cannot yet offset export slowdown
China and the global economy
Why ignoring China is no longer an option.....
Robin Bew, Chief Economist
June 2004
The global outlook
Key points for 2004-05