曼昆宏观经济学第16章

CHAPTER 16
Government Debt and Budget Deficits
14
CASE STUDY:
Accounting for TARP Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP): The U.S. Treasury gave money to help
9
Problems measuring the deficit
1. Inflation 2. Capital assets 3. Uncounted liabilities 4. The business cycle
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Байду номын сангаас
Government Debt and Budget Deficits
government debt
other perspectives on the debt
Indebtedness of the world’s governments
Country
Japan Italy Greece Belgium Gov Debt
(% of GDP)
Country
U.K. Netherlands Norway Sweden
CHAPTER 16
Government Debt and Budget Deficits
4
The U.S. experience in recent years
Early 2000s the return of huge deficits, due to Bush tax cuts, 2001 recession, Iraq war The 2008-2009 recession fall in tax revenues huge spending increases (bailouts of financial institutions and auto industry, stimulus package)
MACROECONOMICS
N. Gregory Mankiw
PowerPoint® Slides by Ron Cronovich
CHAPTER
16
Government Debt and Budget Deficits
© 2010 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved
real deficit = $28b $43b = $15b surplus
CHAPTER 16
Government Debt and Budget Deficits
12
MEASUREMENT PROBLEM 2:
Capital Assets
Currently, deficit = change in debt Better, capital budgeting:
deficit to correct for inflation.
CHAPTER 16
Government Debt and Budget Deficits
11
MEASUREMENT PROBLEM 1:
Inflation
Correcting the deficit for inflation can make a huge
The U.S. experience in recent years
Early 1980s through early 1990s debt-GDP ratio: 25.5% in 1980, 48.9% in 1993 due to Reagan tax cuts, increases in defense spending & entitlements
Percent 8 of GDP
6
4
2 0 1995 2000
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
CHAPTER 16
Government Debt and Budget Deficits
1990
2005
8
CBO projected U.S. federal govt debt in two scenarios
SEVENTH EDITION
In this chapter, you will learn:
about the size of the U.S. government’s debt,
and how it compares to that of other countries
problems measuring the budget deficit the traditional and Ricardian views of the
struggling banks. In return, the Treasury became part owner of the banks, will receive dividends, will eventually relinquish ownership when banks repay principal.
28 14
Ratio of U.S. govt debt to GDP
1.2
1.0
WW2 Iraq War WW1
0.8
0.6
Revolutionary War Civil War
0.4
0.2
0.0 1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
10
MEASUREMENT PROBLEM 1:
Inflation
Suppose the real debt is constant, which implies a
zero real deficit.
In this case, the nominal debt D grows at the rate
300
Percent of GDP
250 200
150
pessimistic scenario
100
50
optimistic scenario
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CHAPTER 16
Government Debt and Budget Deficits
Government Debt and Budget Deficits
13
MEASUREMENT PROBLEM 3:
Uncounted liabilities Current measure of deficit omits important
liabilities of the government:
CHAPTER 16
Government Debt and Budget Deficits
15
CASE STUDY:
Accounting for TARP Should the TARP outlays count toward the
deficit? The U.S. Treasury considered TARP outlays to be expenditures that increased the deficit, and will consider bank repayments as revenues that will reduce the deficit. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) counted the net present value of the program – outlays minus eventual repayments – adjusted for the risk of non-repayment. This works out to 25 cents for each dollar spend on TARP.
EX: Suppose govt sells an office building and
Problem w/ cap budgeting: Determining which
govt expenditures count as capital expenditures.
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Percent 23 of pop. 20
actual
projected
17
14 11 8
5
2030 2040
1950
2010
1970
1980
1990
2000
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Government Debt and Budget Deficits
2020
1960
2050
7
U.S. government spending on Medicare and Social Security
future pension payments owed to
current govt workers
future Social Security payments contingent liabilities, e.g., covering federally
insured deposits when banks fail (Hard to attach a dollar value to contingent liabilities, due to inherent uncertainty.)
CHAPTER 16
Government Debt and Budget Deficits