印尼经济发展规划MP3EI 2011-2025年
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COMMITTEE FOR ACCELERATION AND EXPANSION OF INDONESIA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
KP3EI
The Longterm Economic MASTERPLAN
MP3EI 2011 – 2025
Highlights, Updates and Investment Opportunities
Investment
International Trade
Current Account
More than just population size ..
China 1,3 Bi India 1,2 Bi
USA 310 Mn
Indonesia 242 Mn Brazil
334,5 TSCF 453.3 TSCF
Reserve
159.64 TSCF பைடு நூலகம்
Production
Ratio Reserve to Production 23 years 55 years
56,6 bill barrel 7.99 bill barrel —
4
ABUNDANCE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Commodity Crude Palm Oil Tin Rubber Cocoa Copper Nickel Gold Production Location World Rank 1st 2nd 2nd
Luky Eko Wuryanto Exec. Secretary of KP3EI Jakarta, November – 2012
Country Snapshot
Macroeconomics In Brief
Indicator
Exchange Rate JSX Comp Index Inflation Capital Inflows GDP Growth Consump. Indicators
Sumatera, 20.8 million tons (2010) Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Papua. 105 thou metric tons (2009) 2.4 mill tons (2010) 792 thou tons (2008) 868 thou metric tons (2009) 189 thou metric tons (2009) 105 metric tons (2009) Sumatera Kalimantan Sulawesi, Sumatera, Java, Kalimantan, East Nusa Tenggara Papua, Maluku, Nusa Tenggara Sulawesi, Sumatera, Maluku, Papua Kalimantan, Sumatera, Maluku, Papua
2nd 5th 2nd 7th
5
INDONESIA has huge Energy Potential for the Future Economy
Fossil Energy
Oil Gas Coal Bed Methane (CBM) Coal
Resources
8
.... THE ECONOMIC MASTERPLAN
MP3EI
Vision
MAIN STRATEGY
" ECONOMIC CORRIDORS DEVELOPMENT " STRENGTHENING THE NATIONAL CONNECTIVITY " STRENGTHENING HR CAPABILITY AND SCI – TECH
Performance
• By 24 Oct 2012: exchange rate was Rp 9.629 /US$ , depreciated 5,82% (ytd) • Average in Rp9.328/US$ • By 24 Oct 2012: 4335,375, up 13,43% (ytd) • Inflation Sem I 2012: 4,53% (yoy) • Inflation September 2012: 0,01%(mtm) – 3,49% (ytd) – 4,31 %(yoy) • Up to Sept. 2012, in total, there are inflows of Rp28,54 triliun foreign capital to portofolio instruments. • Q2 2012: 6,4% (yoy) • Sem I- 2012: 6,3% (yoy) • Consumer Confidence Index at September 2012 up from 115,7 to 117,7. At Q3 2012, total investment up 25,1% (yoy) to become Rp81,8 triliun: ü FDI : Rp56,6 triliun, up by 22,0% (yoy) ü Domestic : Rp25,2 triliun, up by 32,6% (yoy) Cumulatively, in the period of Jan-Sep 2012, total investment up 27,0% (yoy) to become Rp229,9 triliun: ü FDI : Rp164,2 triliun, up by 27,3% (yoy) ü Domestic : Rp65,7 triliun, up by 26,3% (yoy) • Augst 2012 : export down by 5,6% (ytd) to become US$14,1 miliar • Import up by 10,3% to become US$13,9 miliar ————> Surplus in balance of trade: US$248,5 juta • Period of January-August 2012, total surplus in balance of trade: US$496,66 juta • Current account Deficit Q2 2012 is US$6,9 miliar (3,1% of GDP), bigger than deficit in Q1–2012 (US $3,2 M or 1,5% of GDP). • Surplus of capital and financial at Q2–2012 is US$5,5 miliar (2,5% of GDP), bigger than at Q1–2012 (US$2,5 M or 1,1% of GDP). • Deficit in balance of payment neraca at Q2–2012 is US$2,8 miliar (1,3% of GDP), bigger than deficit at Q1–2012 (US$ 1,0 M or 0,5% of GDP).
2010
2030 (Est)
2050 (Est)
Age 100+
Age 0
• Of the 240 million people in Indonesia, over 60% of the population is under 39 years old, providing a dynamic workforce. • Index of Dependency Ratio stay below 50% (productive age > non productive age) until 2037
9
Main Economic Area of Focus
Strategic Focus Areas to Boost Regional Development
International Hub Port West
“Center for Production and Processing of National Mining and Nation’s Power House”
Resources
75,670 MW (845 mill BOE) 49,810 MW 28,112 MW 9,290 MW 3,000 MW 500 MW 4.80 kWh/m2/day
Capacity Installed
4,200 MW 445 MW 1,189 MW 1.4 MW 30 MW 87.8 MW 12.1 MW
— 83 years
104,8 bill TONS 20,98 bill TONS 254 mill TONS
Non-Fossil Energy
Water Power Biomass Geothermal Wind power Uranium Mini/Micro Hydro Solar Source: ministry of mining and energy.
6
The World Embrace Indonesia Performance
7
The World Embrace Indonesia Performance .. (2)
" Financial Times wrote (Nov 2010) that within G-20 Group, Indonesia is the third country following China and India which has the highest growth of consumption goods markets. " The reason has the strong growth of middle class that is estimated to be more than 9 million per annum. If the growth is consistent, by the year 2020, Indonesia’s middle class would reach more than 150 million people. Euromonitor – a market research company – defined that the middle class household has annual disposable income ranging from $ 5,000 – $ 15,000. " According to World Bank Study entitled “Global Economic Horizon” Indonesia is stated to be one of the six countries (China, India, Russia, Brasil, South Korea, and Indonesia) that together will contribute around 50 percent to global economic growth in the period of 2011 – 2025.
KP3EI
The Longterm Economic MASTERPLAN
MP3EI 2011 – 2025
Highlights, Updates and Investment Opportunities
Investment
International Trade
Current Account
More than just population size ..
China 1,3 Bi India 1,2 Bi
USA 310 Mn
Indonesia 242 Mn Brazil
334,5 TSCF 453.3 TSCF
Reserve
159.64 TSCF பைடு நூலகம்
Production
Ratio Reserve to Production 23 years 55 years
56,6 bill barrel 7.99 bill barrel —
4
ABUNDANCE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Commodity Crude Palm Oil Tin Rubber Cocoa Copper Nickel Gold Production Location World Rank 1st 2nd 2nd
Luky Eko Wuryanto Exec. Secretary of KP3EI Jakarta, November – 2012
Country Snapshot
Macroeconomics In Brief
Indicator
Exchange Rate JSX Comp Index Inflation Capital Inflows GDP Growth Consump. Indicators
Sumatera, 20.8 million tons (2010) Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Papua. 105 thou metric tons (2009) 2.4 mill tons (2010) 792 thou tons (2008) 868 thou metric tons (2009) 189 thou metric tons (2009) 105 metric tons (2009) Sumatera Kalimantan Sulawesi, Sumatera, Java, Kalimantan, East Nusa Tenggara Papua, Maluku, Nusa Tenggara Sulawesi, Sumatera, Maluku, Papua Kalimantan, Sumatera, Maluku, Papua
2nd 5th 2nd 7th
5
INDONESIA has huge Energy Potential for the Future Economy
Fossil Energy
Oil Gas Coal Bed Methane (CBM) Coal
Resources
8
.... THE ECONOMIC MASTERPLAN
MP3EI
Vision
MAIN STRATEGY
" ECONOMIC CORRIDORS DEVELOPMENT " STRENGTHENING THE NATIONAL CONNECTIVITY " STRENGTHENING HR CAPABILITY AND SCI – TECH
Performance
• By 24 Oct 2012: exchange rate was Rp 9.629 /US$ , depreciated 5,82% (ytd) • Average in Rp9.328/US$ • By 24 Oct 2012: 4335,375, up 13,43% (ytd) • Inflation Sem I 2012: 4,53% (yoy) • Inflation September 2012: 0,01%(mtm) – 3,49% (ytd) – 4,31 %(yoy) • Up to Sept. 2012, in total, there are inflows of Rp28,54 triliun foreign capital to portofolio instruments. • Q2 2012: 6,4% (yoy) • Sem I- 2012: 6,3% (yoy) • Consumer Confidence Index at September 2012 up from 115,7 to 117,7. At Q3 2012, total investment up 25,1% (yoy) to become Rp81,8 triliun: ü FDI : Rp56,6 triliun, up by 22,0% (yoy) ü Domestic : Rp25,2 triliun, up by 32,6% (yoy) Cumulatively, in the period of Jan-Sep 2012, total investment up 27,0% (yoy) to become Rp229,9 triliun: ü FDI : Rp164,2 triliun, up by 27,3% (yoy) ü Domestic : Rp65,7 triliun, up by 26,3% (yoy) • Augst 2012 : export down by 5,6% (ytd) to become US$14,1 miliar • Import up by 10,3% to become US$13,9 miliar ————> Surplus in balance of trade: US$248,5 juta • Period of January-August 2012, total surplus in balance of trade: US$496,66 juta • Current account Deficit Q2 2012 is US$6,9 miliar (3,1% of GDP), bigger than deficit in Q1–2012 (US $3,2 M or 1,5% of GDP). • Surplus of capital and financial at Q2–2012 is US$5,5 miliar (2,5% of GDP), bigger than at Q1–2012 (US$2,5 M or 1,1% of GDP). • Deficit in balance of payment neraca at Q2–2012 is US$2,8 miliar (1,3% of GDP), bigger than deficit at Q1–2012 (US$ 1,0 M or 0,5% of GDP).
2010
2030 (Est)
2050 (Est)
Age 100+
Age 0
• Of the 240 million people in Indonesia, over 60% of the population is under 39 years old, providing a dynamic workforce. • Index of Dependency Ratio stay below 50% (productive age > non productive age) until 2037
9
Main Economic Area of Focus
Strategic Focus Areas to Boost Regional Development
International Hub Port West
“Center for Production and Processing of National Mining and Nation’s Power House”
Resources
75,670 MW (845 mill BOE) 49,810 MW 28,112 MW 9,290 MW 3,000 MW 500 MW 4.80 kWh/m2/day
Capacity Installed
4,200 MW 445 MW 1,189 MW 1.4 MW 30 MW 87.8 MW 12.1 MW
— 83 years
104,8 bill TONS 20,98 bill TONS 254 mill TONS
Non-Fossil Energy
Water Power Biomass Geothermal Wind power Uranium Mini/Micro Hydro Solar Source: ministry of mining and energy.
6
The World Embrace Indonesia Performance
7
The World Embrace Indonesia Performance .. (2)
" Financial Times wrote (Nov 2010) that within G-20 Group, Indonesia is the third country following China and India which has the highest growth of consumption goods markets. " The reason has the strong growth of middle class that is estimated to be more than 9 million per annum. If the growth is consistent, by the year 2020, Indonesia’s middle class would reach more than 150 million people. Euromonitor – a market research company – defined that the middle class household has annual disposable income ranging from $ 5,000 – $ 15,000. " According to World Bank Study entitled “Global Economic Horizon” Indonesia is stated to be one of the six countries (China, India, Russia, Brasil, South Korea, and Indonesia) that together will contribute around 50 percent to global economic growth in the period of 2011 – 2025.