凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》(ppt 34)英文版.ppt

DEFINE THE PROBLEM
STRUCTURE THE ANALYSIS
What could we do about it?
FIND THE SOLUTION
What should we do about it?
Fine, but IWIK H2 do this...
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Defining the issue is the first step in the journey to final recommendations
Define the Issues
Form Hypotheses
Gather Data
Analyse Data
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Our problem solving approach produces results through answering a simple series of questions
Is there a problem or opportunity? If so where does it lie? Why does it exist?
Find Insights
Develop Conclusions and
Make Recommendations
to Implement
What are the questions keeping you awake at night?
Statements that provide direction and structure for the analysis
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Hypothesis formation ensures that our analysis is focused on our client’s problem
Define the Issues
Form Hypotheses
Gather Data
Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypotheses
Analyse what the data tells us
So what? —aha, new thought
What you should do… and how
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Accurate: Embraces the entire range of competitive or profit drivers
Minimal:
“Occam’s razor”
Actionable:
Can be quantified and tested
On time
Bad Hypotheses
• Direct channels are growing
• Retailers have a strong channel and brand
• There are existing products
Chubb Insurance can access new business by using the brand strength of Tesco resulting Is low cost of acquisition and profitable
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Why problem definition matters
“If you don’t know where
you are going, any road will take you there.”
-Anonymous
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Cannot be refuted Cannot possibly be quantified Require you to “Boil the Ocean” Are so obvious that nobody can
intelligently disagree with it Or look like an abstract model of a
“…due to...”
What is the impact of the issue?
How can we tell there is an opportunity? Why do we care?
“…resulting in...”
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Structured Problem Solving & Hypothesis Generation
Goals of this module
Lay out a systematic approach to solving business problems –“Structured Problem Solving ”
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A hypothesis should identify not only the issue but also the cause and the impact
Think through these three stages as you create a hypothesis to help you plan out how you will test it:
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Light Trucks
In structuring a problem, break it into smaller, easier-to-handle components AND start with the right definitions
Analyse Data
Find Insights
Develop Conclusions and
Make Recommendations
to Implement
What are the questions keeping you awake at night?
Statements that provide direction and structure for the analysis
What is the issue?
What is the underlying opportunity? Where is the advantage?
“x is an opportunity
...”
What do you think causes the issue?
What are the key drivers of the process?
Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypotheses
Analyse what the data tells us
So what? —aha, new thought
What you should do… and how
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business
A number of assertions need to be true for a hypothesis to be valid.
Βιβλιοθήκη Baidu
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Is there a market for white label insurance products?
2 Review and Describe Multiple Assertions
3
Form the hypothesis
• We believe this to be true . . . • A series of statements, not yet backed
Establish a common “modus operandus” for Consulting teams
Practice the suggested process on a real-life example
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US Car Market
Passenger Cars
Big 3
Mini Vans
Sport Utility Vehicles
Ford
GM
Chrysler
But be careful — why does this not work?
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by data • Based on initial data search or expert
opinions
• We think . . . • It looks like . . . • The right answer may be . . . • The options could be . . .
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The most important rule for any structure you impose
"Mutually Exclusive and Comprehensively Exhaustive"
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DEVELOP A HYPOTHESIS
What differentiates a good hypothesis from a bad one?
Good Hypotheses Are
On target:
Answers the core question on the clients’ mind
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1
Define the question
Hypotheses are developed in three steps
• What are the real strategic issues? • What is the impact on the organisation? • What are the priorities?