世界各国的经济增长
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• Annual growth rates that seem small become large when compounded for many years.
• Compounding refers to the accumulation of a growth rate over a period of time.
1 Production and Growth
• Within a country there are large changes in the standard of living over time.
• In the United States over the past century, average income as measured by real GDP per person has grown by about 2 percent per year.
• Productivity refers to the amount of goods and services that a worker can produce from each hour of work.
• To understand the large differences in living standards across countries, we must focus on the production of goods and services.
3.2
2.6
3.1
Of which: United States Japan United Kingdom Canada
3.0
4.2
4.5
3.7
0.8
1.6
2.5
3.9
3.2
3.4
2.9 -1.8 -0.2
2.9
0.4
0.1
1.8
2.3
2.6
2.7
2.2
3.3
3.0
3.8
2.4
2.1
2.7
3.3
1.9
2.9
2.6
3.5
3.9
1.2
1.5
1.9
3.2
2.6
3.1
Memorandum:
Major advanced economies 2
2.7
2.6
3.1
3.6
1.1
1.2
1.8
3.0
2.4
2.9
New ly industrialized Asian economies 3
7.3 -2.4
7.4
7.9
• The poorest countries have average levels of income that have not been seen in the United States for many decades.
1 ECONOMIC GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD
Area and country
1988–97 annual average
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006 1
World Advanced economies
3.4
2.8
3.7
4.9
2.6
3.1
4.1
5.3
4.9
5.1
2.9
2.6
3.5
3.9
1.2
1.5
1.9
2.1 Why Productivity Is So Important
• Let’s begin our study of productivity and economic growth by developing a simple model based loosely on Daniel DeFoe’s famous novel Robinson Crusoe. Robinson Crusoe, is a sailor stranded on a desert island. Because Crusoe lives alone, he catches his own fish, grows his own vegetables, and makes his own clothes. We can think of Crusoe’s activities – his production and consumption of fish, vegetables and clothing – as being a simple economy. By examining Crusoe’s economy, we can learn some lessons that also apply to more complex and realistic economies.
1950－1973黄 金时期
1973－1998 新自由秩序
时期
1870－1913 自由秩序时
期
人均GDP年均复合增长率
A组
1998世界 GDP
1998世界人 口
占世界比重
西欧
4.08
1.78
1.32
20.6
6.6
西方衍生国
2.44
1.94
1.81
25.1
5.5
日本
8.05
2.34
1.48
7.7
2.1
2 PRODUCTIVITY: ITS ROLE AND DETERMINANTS
• Productivity plays a key role in determining living standards for all nations in the world.
2.1 Why Productivity Is So Important
1 Production and Growth
• Productivity refers to the amount of goods and services produced for each hour of a worker’s time.
• A nation’s standard of living is determined by the productivity of its workers.
发达国家合计
3.72
1.98
1.56
53.4
14.2
复兴的亚洲
2.61
4.18
0.38
25.2
50.9
发达国家和复 兴的亚洲（49 个）
40个其他亚洲 国家 44个拉丁美洲 国家 27个东欧和前 苏联
2.93
4.09 2.52 3.49
1.91
0.59 0.99 -1.1
1.36 B组 0.48 1.79 1.15
Figure 1. A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
3E+12 3E+12 2E+12 2E+12 1E+12 5E+11
0
Figure.1952-2005 real GDP in China
1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
1 ECONOMIC GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD
• Living standards, as measured by real GDP per person, vary significantly among nations.
1 ECONOMIC GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD
78.6
4.3 8.7 5.4
65.1
6.5 8.6 6.9
57个非洲国家
2.07
wk.baidu.com
0.01
0.64
3.1
12.9
徘徊的经济实 体（168个）
2.94
-0.21
1.16
21.4
34.9
世界
2.93
1.33
1.3
100
100
资料来源：（英）麦迪森著，《世界经济千年史》（北京大学出版社， 2003） ， 表 3－ 5， p120。
Real GDP
Real GDP Per Capita
TABLE B–112.—Grow th rates in real gross dom estic product, 1988–2006 (Source: Econom ic Report of the President 2007) (percent change)
3.9
1.9
0.9
0.8
2.1
1.3
2.4
2.7
2.0
1.9
3.1
1.2
* -0.2
1.2
0.9
2.0
1.9
3.3
3.0
4.0
1.8
1.1
1.1
2.0
1.2
2.4
1.9
1.4
1.9
3.6
1.8
0.3
*
1.1
*
1.5
2.9
4.5
4.7
5.0
3.5
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.4
3.4
2.9
4.3
4.0
3.5
1.4
第十八章 经济增长
Chapter 25 Production and Growth
1 Production and Growth
• A country’s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services.
8.4
8.8
9.0
8.7
9.9
7.8
7.1
8.4
8.3
9.1 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.0
6.0
5.9
6.9
5.3
4.1
4.3
7.2
8.0
8.5
8.3
4.0
3.7
1.8
5.3
3.0
4.1
6.4
5.5
5.7
5.8
2.9
2.3
0.5
3.9
0.5
0.1
2.2
5.7
4.3
4.8
2.0
0.1
0.8
4.4
1.3
1.9
0.5
4.9
2.3
3.6
3.0
5.0
3.8
6.6
*
0.8
1.4
4.2
3.0
4.0
Table 1 The Variety of Growth Experiences
Table 1 The Variety of Growth Experiences
表 A1 资 本 主 义 时 代 三 个 最 成 功 时 期 的 人 均 GDP增 长 表 现
2.7
2.2
4.1
5.5
5.2
1.8
2.9
1.8
3.3
2.9
3.1
Euro area Germany France Italy Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Finland Greece Portugal Ireland Luxembourg
......
2.8
3.0
0.1
0.3
2.0
1.5
2.9
2.6
1.9
3.1
3.7
1.2
1.5
0.9
2.4
1.5
2.7
2.5
3.6
3.3
3.4
0.8
0.9
1.1
2.4
2.0
2.8
1.6
5.2
3.9
5.0
2.6
1.6
1.8
3.5
2.9
3.5
2.0
3.4
3.4
4.5
5.1
3.8
4.8
4.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
4.8
3.9
3.9
2.0
President 2007) (percent change)
Area and country
1988–97 annual 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006 1
average
World
3.4
2.8
3.7
4.9
2.6
3.1
4.1
5.3
4.9
5.1
Advanced economies
0.8 -1.1
1.2
0.4
1.2
5.9
8.5 10.7
9.2
5.7
6.0
4.3
4.3
5.5
5.8
5.1
6.5
8.4
8.4
2.5
3.6
2.0
4.2
4.0
4.0
TABLE B–112.—Grow th rates in real gross dom estic product, 1988–2006 (Source: Econom ic Report of the
2.3
2.8
2.7
3.1
4.2
3.6
4.6
5.5
5.4
5.4
0.9
2.9
0.7
5.1
0.3
4.5
4.7
6.5
5.4
5.3
...... -3.4
5.2
9.0
6.3
5.3
7.9
8.4
6.5
6.8
...... -5.3
6.4 10.0
5.1
4.7
7.3
7.2
6.4
6.5
7.9
4.2
6.2
7.0
6.1
7.0
U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES
U.S. Economic Growth, Annual Averages for Five Decades
5
Average Annual Increase (Percent)
4
3
2
1
0
1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999
1.1
5.3
3.2
5.9
4.5
4.9
Regional groups: A f ric a Central and eastern Europe
Commonw ealth of Independent States 4
Russia Developing Asia
China India Middle East Western Hemisphere Brazil Mexico
• Compounding refers to the accumulation of a growth rate over a period of time.
1 Production and Growth
• Within a country there are large changes in the standard of living over time.
• In the United States over the past century, average income as measured by real GDP per person has grown by about 2 percent per year.
• Productivity refers to the amount of goods and services that a worker can produce from each hour of work.
• To understand the large differences in living standards across countries, we must focus on the production of goods and services.
3.2
2.6
3.1
Of which: United States Japan United Kingdom Canada
3.0
4.2
4.5
3.7
0.8
1.6
2.5
3.9
3.2
3.4
2.9 -1.8 -0.2
2.9
0.4
0.1
1.8
2.3
2.6
2.7
2.2
3.3
3.0
3.8
2.4
2.1
2.7
3.3
1.9
2.9
2.6
3.5
3.9
1.2
1.5
1.9
3.2
2.6
3.1
Memorandum:
Major advanced economies 2
2.7
2.6
3.1
3.6
1.1
1.2
1.8
3.0
2.4
2.9
New ly industrialized Asian economies 3
7.3 -2.4
7.4
7.9
• The poorest countries have average levels of income that have not been seen in the United States for many decades.
1 ECONOMIC GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD
Area and country
1988–97 annual average
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006 1
World Advanced economies
3.4
2.8
3.7
4.9
2.6
3.1
4.1
5.3
4.9
5.1
2.9
2.6
3.5
3.9
1.2
1.5
1.9
2.1 Why Productivity Is So Important
• Let’s begin our study of productivity and economic growth by developing a simple model based loosely on Daniel DeFoe’s famous novel Robinson Crusoe. Robinson Crusoe, is a sailor stranded on a desert island. Because Crusoe lives alone, he catches his own fish, grows his own vegetables, and makes his own clothes. We can think of Crusoe’s activities – his production and consumption of fish, vegetables and clothing – as being a simple economy. By examining Crusoe’s economy, we can learn some lessons that also apply to more complex and realistic economies.
1950－1973黄 金时期
1973－1998 新自由秩序
时期
1870－1913 自由秩序时
期
人均GDP年均复合增长率
A组
1998世界 GDP
1998世界人 口
占世界比重
西欧
4.08
1.78
1.32
20.6
6.6
西方衍生国
2.44
1.94
1.81
25.1
5.5
日本
8.05
2.34
1.48
7.7
2.1
2 PRODUCTIVITY: ITS ROLE AND DETERMINANTS
• Productivity plays a key role in determining living standards for all nations in the world.
2.1 Why Productivity Is So Important
1 Production and Growth
• Productivity refers to the amount of goods and services produced for each hour of a worker’s time.
• A nation’s standard of living is determined by the productivity of its workers.
发达国家合计
3.72
1.98
1.56
53.4
14.2
复兴的亚洲
2.61
4.18
0.38
25.2
50.9
发达国家和复 兴的亚洲（49 个）
40个其他亚洲 国家 44个拉丁美洲 国家 27个东欧和前 苏联
2.93
4.09 2.52 3.49
1.91
0.59 0.99 -1.1
1.36 B组 0.48 1.79 1.15
Figure 1. A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
3E+12 3E+12 2E+12 2E+12 1E+12 5E+11
0
Figure.1952-2005 real GDP in China
1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
1 ECONOMIC GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD
• Living standards, as measured by real GDP per person, vary significantly among nations.
1 ECONOMIC GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD
78.6
4.3 8.7 5.4
65.1
6.5 8.6 6.9
57个非洲国家
2.07
wk.baidu.com
0.01
0.64
3.1
12.9
徘徊的经济实 体（168个）
2.94
-0.21
1.16
21.4
34.9
世界
2.93
1.33
1.3
100
100
资料来源：（英）麦迪森著，《世界经济千年史》（北京大学出版社， 2003） ， 表 3－ 5， p120。
Real GDP
Real GDP Per Capita
TABLE B–112.—Grow th rates in real gross dom estic product, 1988–2006 (Source: Econom ic Report of the President 2007) (percent change)
3.9
1.9
0.9
0.8
2.1
1.3
2.4
2.7
2.0
1.9
3.1
1.2
* -0.2
1.2
0.9
2.0
1.9
3.3
3.0
4.0
1.8
1.1
1.1
2.0
1.2
2.4
1.9
1.4
1.9
3.6
1.8
0.3
*
1.1
*
1.5
2.9
4.5
4.7
5.0
3.5
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.4
3.4
2.9
4.3
4.0
3.5
1.4
第十八章 经济增长
Chapter 25 Production and Growth
1 Production and Growth
• A country’s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services.
8.4
8.8
9.0
8.7
9.9
7.8
7.1
8.4
8.3
9.1 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.0
6.0
5.9
6.9
5.3
4.1
4.3
7.2
8.0
8.5
8.3
4.0
3.7
1.8
5.3
3.0
4.1
6.4
5.5
5.7
5.8
2.9
2.3
0.5
3.9
0.5
0.1
2.2
5.7
4.3
4.8
2.0
0.1
0.8
4.4
1.3
1.9
0.5
4.9
2.3
3.6
3.0
5.0
3.8
6.6
*
0.8
1.4
4.2
3.0
4.0
Table 1 The Variety of Growth Experiences
Table 1 The Variety of Growth Experiences
表 A1 资 本 主 义 时 代 三 个 最 成 功 时 期 的 人 均 GDP增 长 表 现
2.7
2.2
4.1
5.5
5.2
1.8
2.9
1.8
3.3
2.9
3.1
Euro area Germany France Italy Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Finland Greece Portugal Ireland Luxembourg
......
2.8
3.0
0.1
0.3
2.0
1.5
2.9
2.6
1.9
3.1
3.7
1.2
1.5
0.9
2.4
1.5
2.7
2.5
3.6
3.3
3.4
0.8
0.9
1.1
2.4
2.0
2.8
1.6
5.2
3.9
5.0
2.6
1.6
1.8
3.5
2.9
3.5
2.0
3.4
3.4
4.5
5.1
3.8
4.8
4.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
4.8
3.9
3.9
2.0
President 2007) (percent change)
Area and country
1988–97 annual 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006 1
average
World
3.4
2.8
3.7
4.9
2.6
3.1
4.1
5.3
4.9
5.1
Advanced economies
0.8 -1.1
1.2
0.4
1.2
5.9
8.5 10.7
9.2
5.7
6.0
4.3
4.3
5.5
5.8
5.1
6.5
8.4
8.4
2.5
3.6
2.0
4.2
4.0
4.0
TABLE B–112.—Grow th rates in real gross dom estic product, 1988–2006 (Source: Econom ic Report of the
2.3
2.8
2.7
3.1
4.2
3.6
4.6
5.5
5.4
5.4
0.9
2.9
0.7
5.1
0.3
4.5
4.7
6.5
5.4
5.3
...... -3.4
5.2
9.0
6.3
5.3
7.9
8.4
6.5
6.8
...... -5.3
6.4 10.0
5.1
4.7
7.3
7.2
6.4
6.5
7.9
4.2
6.2
7.0
6.1
7.0
U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES
U.S. Economic Growth, Annual Averages for Five Decades
5
Average Annual Increase (Percent)
4
3
2
1
0
1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999
1.1
5.3
3.2
5.9
4.5
4.9
Regional groups: A f ric a Central and eastern Europe
Commonw ealth of Independent States 4
Russia Developing Asia
China India Middle East Western Hemisphere Brazil Mexico