中国SM苯乙烯的需求分析

5
SM prices and margins very strong in 2013
1850
1800
1750
1700
1650
$/mt
1600 Break even FOB Korea 1550
1500
1450
1400
Source: Platts
6
2014: Fundamentals change
• Japan will lose at least 340,000-400,000 mt/year of SM exports from March 2016, with the closure of a combined 745,000 mt/year production capacity at Chiba and Mizushima.
12
• • • • •
Japan cuts back on SM capacity
Japanese SM plants to shut (in '000 mt/year): COMPANY • Nihon Oxirane • Asahi Kasei LOCATION CAP. Chiba 425 Mizushima 320 Shutting May 2015 March 2016
9
Many turnarounds should trim supply.
• At least 14 planned maintenances at Asian SM plants in the first half of 2014 leading to estimated production loss of about 400,000 mt. • Including unexpected outages in Q1, the loss should be close to at least 430,000 mt. • 5 of Japan’s 6 SM producers to shut 9 out of a total 10 plants this year. • But not as many turnarounds in the US and Europe planned as in 2013, meaning global tightness unlikely to be as severe as last year.
13
Conclusion
• Due to the enormous consuming power of China, any slowdown in its property market or wider economy is likely to affect the global market for SM as well as many other petrochemical products. • The outlook for China’s economy is unclear. • China is likely to become more self-sufficient in the years to come if planned SM expansions become a reality. • As Japan shuts SM plants, China expands its capacity, potentially leading to a change in trade flows.
7
Bearish factors: High China inventory
200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 East China inventory 80000 60000 40000 20000 0
Source: Platts
8
Bearish factors: Benzene and the economy
• China imported relatively large amounts of arbitrage cargoes which arrived around the Lunar New Year holidays. • Low demand during Lunar New year combined with large imports led to a sharp rise in the inventory levels of SM in China – total over 300,000 mt in March. • Relatively much lower benzene and SM prices in China’s domestic market in February and March led to weak demand for imports. • But a relatively heavy TA season over Mar/Apr lends some support to prices, and domestic prices have been rising in April.
• Benzene prices could weaken on the back of additional supply from new paraxylene plants starting up in Asia. This could drag SM prices down as well. • Unclear outlook for China’s economy and the property market. • The World Bank recently revised its 2014 growth forecast for China down from 7.7% to 7.6% following a “bumpy start to the year”.
2
China is the engine of Asia SM demand
• China imported 3.7 million metric tonnes (mt) of SM in 2013, up 10% from 3.3 million in 2012. • Main sources of China’s imports are South Korea, Japan and the Middle East. • China demand is also important for US exporters: In February 2014, China imported over 75,000 mt from the US. • China is short of SM, but its domestic production is set to expand by 1.8 million mt/year by end of 2016.
3
China imports
China SM imports 2007-2013
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
China imports
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: China customs
4
Downstream grew more than SM recently
• China’s downstream production capacity for expandable polystyrene (EPS), acrylonitrilebutadiene-styrene (ABS) and polystyrene (GPPS and HIPS) has increased over the last few years. • More ABS, PS and EPS capacities to start up in 2014 as well. • But Asian SM production capacity has been relatively stable last few years. • This contributed to supply tightness in 2013.
Will China slowdown impact SM demand?
By Gustav Holmvik, Editor April 16, 2014
© 2013 Platts, McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved.
Outline
• • • • • • • • China import demand Stable SM capacity vs. expanding downstream 2013: A very strong year for SM 2014: High inventory in China Bearish factors Bullish factors Outlook: Japan cuts back, China expands Conclusion
14
Thank you！ 谢谢！
Gustav Holmvik, Editor, Asian Styrenics Markets
© 2013 Platts, McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved.
15
10
US to Asia arbitrage shut until recently
1900 1850
1800
1750 1700 1650 CFR China 1600 1550 1500 1450 1400 FOB US Gulf