2015 Chapter1-Forecasting(all) (1)
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10
Demand Management
Recognizing and planning for all sources of demand Can demand be controlled or influenced? • appointment schedules
– doctor’s office – attorney
14
Forecast Horizons in Operation Planning – Figure 1
15
Forecasting Techniques
• Qualitative forecasting methods • Quantitative forecasting methods
16
Qualitative forecasting methods
Transport Strategy Transport Strategy • Transport fundamentals • Transport fundamentals • Transport decisions • Transport decisions
Main contents
• Demand forecasting • Qualitative forecasting methods • Quantitative forecasting methods • The application of several forecasting models • Identify the various measurements of forecasting errors
8
Questions in Demand Forecasting
For a particular product or service: • What exactly is to be forecasted? • What will the forecasts be used for? • What forecasting period is most useful? • What time horizon in the future is to be forecasted? • How many periods of past data should be used? • What patterns would you expect to see? • How do you select a forecasting model?
12
Forecasting is an Integral Part of Business Planning
Inputs: Market, Economic, Other Forecast Methods Demand Estimates
Sales Forecast
Management Team
Business Strategy
PLANNING PLANNING
• • • • • •
6
CONTROLLING CONTROLLING
Customer Customer service goals service goals The product The product Logistics service Logistics service Ord . proc. & info. sys. Ord . proc. & info. sys.
7
Forecasting Demand Why is demand forecasting important? What is bad about poor forecasting? What do these organizations forecast:
Lipton Tea from Unilever (fast-moving consumer products division)
11
Demand Estimation
• Demand estimates for products and services are the starting point for all the other planning in operations management. • Management teams develop sales forecasts based on demand estimates. • The sales forecasts become inputs to both business strategy and production resource forecasts.
Three Time Ranges of Forecasting:
– Long Range Forecasting (over 1 years) – Intermediate Range Forecasting (6 - 12 months) – Short Range Forecasting (less than 6 months)
ORGANIZING ORGANIZING
Location Strategy Location Strategy • Location decisions • Location decisions • The network planning process • The network planning process
• 企业物流管理:供应链的规划组织和控制. Ronald H.Ballou, 机械工业出版社 • Excel 数据建模与应用（中文版），崔群法译，清华大学出 版社
3
Examination
• 30% Excel calculations and tests and performance
at class • 70% final examination closed the book
ORGANIZING
Hale Waihona Puke Baidu
Location Strategy • Location decisions • The network planning process
CONTROLLING
2
PLANNING
References
• Business Logistics/Supply Chain Management. 5rd, Ronald H. Ballou, Pearson Education. • Edward A. Silver; David Pyke, and Rein Peterson. Inventory Management and Production Planning and Scheduling. 3rd edition
Production Resource Forecasts
13
Forecasting
Forecasting vs. Prediction:
– Forecasting: Estimating future by casting forward from past data. – Prediction: Estimating future based on any subjective consideration other than just past data.
4
Chapter 1 Forecasting
Forecasting in Logistics System
Inventory Strategy Inventory Strategy • Forecasting • Forecasting Forecasting • Inventory decisions Inventorydecisions decisions • Inventory • Purchasing and supply • Purchasing and supply scheduling decisions scheduling decisions • Storage fundamentals • Storage fundamentals • Storage decisions • Storage decisions
• Qualitative forecasting methods are approaches to forecasting based on intuition or judgmental evaluation and are generally used when data are limited, unavailable, or not currently relevant. • The qualitative techniques are often used to develop long-rang projections when current data are no longer very useful, and for new product introductions when current data does not exist.
• sales promotions
– – – – restaurant discounts before 6pm video rental store discounts on Tuesdays golf course discounts if you start playing after 4pm theater matinee movie discounts
Logistics System Planning and Design
Associate Prof. SUN Xiaolin 18601790090 xlsun@shmtu.edu.cn
Core Contents
Inventory Strategy • Forecasting Inventorydecisions decisions • Inventory • Purchasing and supply scheduling decisions • Storage fundamentals • Storage decisions Customer service goals • The product • Logistics service • Ord . proc. & info. sys. Transport Strategy • Transport fundamentals • Transport decisions
18
Selection of Forecasting Techniques…
Qualitative Techniques: (Subjective) Used when:
17
Qualitative forecasting models
• The Delphi Method
– Individual opinions are compiled and considered. These are anonymously shared among group. Then opinion request is repeated until an overall group consensus is (hopefully) reached.
9
Forecasting
• A forecasting is a prediction of future events used for planning purposes. • Because we want to make management decisions on how to deploy resources to best respond to the demand. • Forecasts are critical inputs to business plans, such as finance, human resources, and operations and supply chain management.
Demand Management
Recognizing and planning for all sources of demand Can demand be controlled or influenced? • appointment schedules
– doctor’s office – attorney
14
Forecast Horizons in Operation Planning – Figure 1
15
Forecasting Techniques
• Qualitative forecasting methods • Quantitative forecasting methods
16
Qualitative forecasting methods
Transport Strategy Transport Strategy • Transport fundamentals • Transport fundamentals • Transport decisions • Transport decisions
Main contents
• Demand forecasting • Qualitative forecasting methods • Quantitative forecasting methods • The application of several forecasting models • Identify the various measurements of forecasting errors
8
Questions in Demand Forecasting
For a particular product or service: • What exactly is to be forecasted? • What will the forecasts be used for? • What forecasting period is most useful? • What time horizon in the future is to be forecasted? • How many periods of past data should be used? • What patterns would you expect to see? • How do you select a forecasting model?
12
Forecasting is an Integral Part of Business Planning
Inputs: Market, Economic, Other Forecast Methods Demand Estimates
Sales Forecast
Management Team
Business Strategy
PLANNING PLANNING
• • • • • •
6
CONTROLLING CONTROLLING
Customer Customer service goals service goals The product The product Logistics service Logistics service Ord . proc. & info. sys. Ord . proc. & info. sys.
7
Forecasting Demand Why is demand forecasting important? What is bad about poor forecasting? What do these organizations forecast:
Lipton Tea from Unilever (fast-moving consumer products division)
11
Demand Estimation
• Demand estimates for products and services are the starting point for all the other planning in operations management. • Management teams develop sales forecasts based on demand estimates. • The sales forecasts become inputs to both business strategy and production resource forecasts.
Three Time Ranges of Forecasting:
– Long Range Forecasting (over 1 years) – Intermediate Range Forecasting (6 - 12 months) – Short Range Forecasting (less than 6 months)
ORGANIZING ORGANIZING
Location Strategy Location Strategy • Location decisions • Location decisions • The network planning process • The network planning process
• 企业物流管理:供应链的规划组织和控制. Ronald H.Ballou, 机械工业出版社 • Excel 数据建模与应用（中文版），崔群法译，清华大学出 版社
3
Examination
• 30% Excel calculations and tests and performance
at class • 70% final examination closed the book
ORGANIZING
Hale Waihona Puke Baidu
Location Strategy • Location decisions • The network planning process
CONTROLLING
2
PLANNING
References
• Business Logistics/Supply Chain Management. 5rd, Ronald H. Ballou, Pearson Education. • Edward A. Silver; David Pyke, and Rein Peterson. Inventory Management and Production Planning and Scheduling. 3rd edition
Production Resource Forecasts
13
Forecasting
Forecasting vs. Prediction:
– Forecasting: Estimating future by casting forward from past data. – Prediction: Estimating future based on any subjective consideration other than just past data.
4
Chapter 1 Forecasting
Forecasting in Logistics System
Inventory Strategy Inventory Strategy • Forecasting • Forecasting Forecasting • Inventory decisions Inventorydecisions decisions • Inventory • Purchasing and supply • Purchasing and supply scheduling decisions scheduling decisions • Storage fundamentals • Storage fundamentals • Storage decisions • Storage decisions
• Qualitative forecasting methods are approaches to forecasting based on intuition or judgmental evaluation and are generally used when data are limited, unavailable, or not currently relevant. • The qualitative techniques are often used to develop long-rang projections when current data are no longer very useful, and for new product introductions when current data does not exist.
• sales promotions
– – – – restaurant discounts before 6pm video rental store discounts on Tuesdays golf course discounts if you start playing after 4pm theater matinee movie discounts
Logistics System Planning and Design
Associate Prof. SUN Xiaolin 18601790090 xlsun@shmtu.edu.cn
Core Contents
Inventory Strategy • Forecasting Inventorydecisions decisions • Inventory • Purchasing and supply scheduling decisions • Storage fundamentals • Storage decisions Customer service goals • The product • Logistics service • Ord . proc. & info. sys. Transport Strategy • Transport fundamentals • Transport decisions
18
Selection of Forecasting Techniques…
Qualitative Techniques: (Subjective) Used when:
17
Qualitative forecasting models
• The Delphi Method
– Individual opinions are compiled and considered. These are anonymously shared among group. Then opinion request is repeated until an overall group consensus is (hopefully) reached.
9
Forecasting
• A forecasting is a prediction of future events used for planning purposes. • Because we want to make management decisions on how to deploy resources to best respond to the demand. • Forecasts are critical inputs to business plans, such as finance, human resources, and operations and supply chain management.