有关于啤酒游戏的启示

Demand Amplification Effect 需求放大效应
• Small variations in demand from customers result in increasing large variations as demand is transmitted upstream along a supply chain. 当需求在供应链里面传递，小小的客户需求变化就可以产生一个 持续增长的变化。 When customer demand increases, three responses typically occur; 当客户需求增加，通常有三种反应 Demand to the upstream supplier is increased to meet the immediate increase of customer demand. 马上增加对于上游供应商的 需求来满足客户需求的增加。 Demand is further increased to inject more inventory into the supply pipeline in anticipation that initial demand increase will be sustained. 需求进一步增加以增加供应通道内的产品以此来应对将持续 增长的需求 Stock depletion causes service problems to other customers that prompt them to increase their ordering to cover longer supply lead-time. 库存的减少造成了对于其他客户的服务问题，这样促使他们 增加他们的订单来应对比较长的交货周期
Lessons of the Beer Game
从啤酒游戏中我们学到
1. Structure influences behavior 结构影响行为 - when placed in the same system, people, however different, tend to produce similar results. 当在相同的系统里面，人们尽管不同总是会产生不同的结果。 - we must look beyond personalities and events. We must look into the underlying structures which shape individual actions and create the condition where types of events become likely. 我们必须超越人性和事件来看这个问题。我们必须调查基础的结构， 这个结构是造就个人行为和为事件的发生造就条件
Shortage Situation 缺货状态
After a supply shortage period, the product groups with most supply problem has most surplus stock problem. 经过一段时间供应短缺，那些缺货的产品就会 有多余的库存 Monitor profile development 监测内容变化 Cause poor capacity utilization during shortage period 在缺货时期造成生产能力不 善使用
Beer Game 啤酒游戏
Any decision maker within the supply chain can set off a panic any where within the pipeline and creates problem throughout the supply chain. 在供应链中的任何人都可以在任何地方 留下不安并且在整个供应链中产生问题。
Why stock outs?为何缺货
• Production intervals too far apart. 生产间隔太长 • Each production batch should create stock to service production interval but not the case. 每个 生产批次应该保证产生的库存可以用来满足生产间隔 而不是单个案件。 • If production batch is prolonged to create stock, production intervals for basic family types will increase. 如果生产批次延长来产生库存，为了基本类 型的生产间隔将会增加 • Absolutely necessary to clean up order file. 绝对需 要清除订单文件。
Shortage Situation 缺货状态
In a shortage situation, the orders in the pipeline is not reflective of actually consumption requirement. 在缺货的时候，供应通道里面的订单并 不能反映实际的消耗需求。
Beer Game 啤酒游戏
Your success in inventory planning is not just influenced by your orders; it is influenced by the actions of everyone else in the pipeline in order for you to succeed, others must succeed as well. 你库存计划的成功不是仅仅受到你的订单的影 响，它也受到在供应通道里的其他人的影响， 为了你的成功，其他人必须也成功。
All about Beer Game!!!
所有关于啤酒游戏的启示！！！ቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱ
Questions
问题
1. 2. Are you happy with your performance? 你对于你的成绩满意吗？ Did you feel yourself “at the effect” of forces in the system from time to time? (e.g. huge incoming orders or excess inventories) 你发现自己一直在被系统的力量推动？比如很大的订单 或者过量的库存 Did you find yourself “blaming” the person next to you for your problems? 你发现自己在责怪你旁边的人吗？ What impact did your order quantity have on your supply chain? 你的订单数量对于你的供应有何影响？ For non retailersWhat do you think the customers were doing? 对于非零售商，你 如何想象客户在干吗？ With the benefit of this experience, what would you do differently to improve future performance? 由于这次经验，你以 后将做如何用不同的方法来提高成绩？
•Teaches the dynamics of supply chains and principles for effective management. 教授供应链 的动态和有效管理的原则。
Beer Game 啤酒游戏
People tend to focus only on their own problems and ignore how their decisions affect others. 人们一般都是只是关心他们自己的问题 忽视他们的决定对与他人的影响。
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Purpose of Beer Game
啤酒游戏的目的
• Introduce “concept of systems dynamics” in a supply chain. 介绍在供 应链中系统动态的概念 • Experience the pressures of playing a role in a complex system. 让你体会在 复杂系统中完成一个角色的压力
Beer Distribution Game 啤酒分销游戏
•Interconnected and dynamic world challenges managers to find new ways to understand and control change. 相互关联和动态的世界挑战经理们来 寻找新的方法来了解和控制变化。 •Pilot trained through simulator. What about managers? 飞行员是通过模拟机来训练的。经理们呢？
Lessons learnt – Beer Game 通过啤酒游戏学到的
It is not possible to totally eliminate all overshoots in orders and all inventory/backlog cycles. It is possible to hold these instabilities to a very modest level. 一般不可能在订单中完全消除所有的不确实的 订单并且所有的库存和缺货循环。 但是，可以 将这种不稳定保持在最小的程度。
Business cycle 商业周期
Ordering
订货 Consumption 消费
Shortage Situation 短缺的状况
Make sure order book per item reflects actual market requirement. 确保订单纪录如实反映了市场需求。
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Shortage Situation 缺货状态
In a shortage situation, each decision maker has it in his power to eliminate the extreme instabilities that invariably occur, but they fail to do so because they do not understand how they are creating the instability in the first place. 在缺货的情况，每一个决策者都有他的能力来 消除不稳定但是他们没有这样做的原因是他们 不了解他们自己产生了不稳定。
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Structure in human systems is subtle 人类系统中的结构是 很微妙的。 - We tend to think of “structure” as external constraints of the individual. In human systems, structures includes how people make decisions- the “ operating policies” whereby we translate perception, goals, rules and norms into actions. 我们一般认为结构是对于个人的外部限制。在人类系统中，结 构包括人们如何做决定-运作的制度，我们将它们转化为在行动 中的认知，目标，规则和道德。 - In the beer game, the structure that caused wild swings in orders and inventories involved the multi-stage supply chain and the delays intervening between the different stages, the limited information available at each stage, and the goals, costs, perceptions, and fears that influenced individuals’ orders for beer. 在啤酒游戏中，造成了订单和库存摇晃的结构包括了多个层次 的供应链和在不同层次之间造成的延迟，在每个层次有限的信 息，目标，成本，认知和害怕这些影响了个人的啤酒订单。