中英文对照外文文献 计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献

中英文对照外文文献计划风险管理中英文对照外
文翻译文献
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计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献
计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献
(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)
原文：
Schedule Risk Management
INTRODUCTION
Schedule risks are both threats and opportunities to the success of a project. Threats tend to reduce the success of
meeting the project goals and opportunities tend to increase the success. Risk management is the process of identifying, analyzing, qualifying and quantifying the risks, and developing a plan to deal with them. This is routinely done during baseline schedule development as well as during schedule updates. Implementation of risk
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计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献
management starts with early planning in both budgetary cost estimating and preliminary master scheduling in order to determine budgets and schedules with a comfortable level of confidence in the completion date and final cost.
While there are entire volumes addressing risk in construction projects, it is important to note that the issue of time-related risk has not been universally incorporated into planning. Assessing cost risk is more intuitive, and very often addressed through the use of heuristics, so it has become more of a standard of the industry than time-related risk management. Most estimators will automatically add a contingency to
a cost estimate to cover the risk of performance based on the type of project and circumstances pertaining to the
undertaking of the project. Estimators estimate this contingency using their own rules of thumb developed over years of estimating as well as estimate ingmanuals，such as Means’Cost Data or Cost Works. However, when it comes to
developing the critical path method (CPM) schedules, risk management is often overlooked or underestimated.
The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview of risk management and the assessment process as well as best practices for incorporation of risk management into CPM schedule development and maintenance. For more detailed information about schedule risk, the reader should refer to risk management books, particularly those that focus on project management. One of the best resources available is David Hulett’s new book, Practical Schedule
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计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献
Risk Analysis.
Any risk management program starts with a good and accurate CPM schedule, created through the use of best practices and checked for quality, reasonableness, and appropriateness of the network model. Without a
well-designed and developed CPM baseline schedule, a risk management process will not be effective. The risk analysis depends upon accurate and consistent calculations of the network logic, the appropriateness of the sequencing and phasing, and a reasonable approach to estimating activity durations.
Most CPM schedules are not adjusted for risk but rather are developed as if there were one right answer for the schedule’s numerical data. Generally, activity durations are established by calculation of the quantity of work represented by an activity divided by the production rate, or by sheer ‘‘gut feeling’’of the project manager or crew leader. This production rate is normally established by the contractor’s historical records or an estimating system, such as Means’, that provides an accurate data base of average production rates. Once those durations are calculated, they are often used as deterministic values, which assumes that the durations are accurate and unlikely to change. This assumption ignores the fact that the schedule is attempting to predict how long it will take to complete an activity at some unknown time in the future,
using an unknown crew composition, with variable
experience, and working
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计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献
in unknown conditions. Risk management recognizes the uncertainty in duration estimating and provides a system to brain storm other risks that may occur during the project. Probability distributions are the best way to model planned activity durations, as noted by Hulett ‘‘The best way to understand the activity durations that are included in the schedule is as probabilistic statements of possible durations rather than a deterministic statement about how long the future activity will take.’’
DEFINITION OF RISK TERMS
The Project Management Institute (PMI) defines project risk in its Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) as ‘‘an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on at least one project objective, such as time, cost, scope, or quality. A risk may have one or more causes and, if it occurs, one or more impacts.’’PMBOK adds ‘‘Risk conditions could include aspects of the project’s or organization’s environment that may contribute to project risk, such as poor project
management practices, or dependency on external participants who cannot be controlled.’’
Risk Management: A process designed to examine uncertainties occurring during project delivery and to implement actions dealing with those uncertainties in order to achieve project objectives The definition of risk management in PMBOK, 4th Edition, is: ‘‘systematic process of identifying, analyzing, and responding to project risk.’’
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计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献
Risk definition by AACEi Cost Engineering Terminology7 is: ‘‘the degree of dispersion or variability around the expected or ‘best’value, which is estimated to exist for the economic variable in question, e.g., a quantitative measure of the upper and lower limits which are considered reasonable for the factor being estimated.’’
Time Contingency: An amount of time added to the base estimated duration to allow for unknown impacts to the project schedule, or to achieve a certain level of confidence in the estimated duration.
Probability: A measure of the likelihood of occurrence of an
event.
Risk register: A checklist of potential risks developed during the risk identification phase of risk management.
Risk allocation: A determination of how to respond to risks, which can include shifting risk, avoiding risks, preventing or eliminating risks, and incorporating risks into the schedule. Deterministic: A calculated approach to estimating single activity duration using work quantity divided by estimated production rate.
Probabilistic: The determination of risk likelihood and consequences to establish duration ranges or risk-adjusted durations that can be used in a schedule in recognition that there are no certainties in estimating future durations. Monte Carlo analysis: A probabilistic approach to determining confidence levels of completion dates for a project schedule by calculating durations as
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计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献
probability distributions.
Probability distribution: The spread of durations in a statistically significant population that is used for the range of durations in probabilistic scheduling approaches.
Confidence level: A measure of the statistical reliability of the prediction of project completion.
What-if scenario: A modeling of a risk for use in a CPM schedule in order to predict the ramifications of an identified risk.
Qualitative analysis: Occurring on the project, as well as assessing the severity of that risk should it occur and prioritizing the resultant list of risks.
Quantitative analysis: The assigning of a probability to the qualitative description of the risk, ranking the risks, and calculating the potential impact from both individual risks as well as the cumulative effect of all risks identified. Exculpatory clauses: Disclaimer verbiage that is designed to shift risk. TYPES OF RISK IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
Everything that has ever gone wrong on a construction project is a potential risk on the next project. Many project managers instinctively develop a lessons-learned list of historical risks and take steps to minimize their exposure to those risks in the future.
Risks vary by industry and even by construction project type as well as by personnel involved with the project. A
roadway or bridge project has a
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计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献
different group of risks than a facility or building, and the selected contractors may have different degrees of influence on the level of risks to performance. If an owner attempts to save money in preconstruction services by limiting the extent of field investigation or development of as-built data, there will be a higher risk of discovery of unknown problems. The experience and competence of the architects and engineers handling the design of the project, as well as their quality control in
development of working drawings, directly affect the construction effort and, consequently, the risk associated with the plans and specifications.
Even if the owner has been proactive in preconstruction investigation, there is always a risk of unforeseen conditions. This can be a function of the type of soils encountered, the local municipality, and its culture and history of keeping good records of obsolete utilities. If the city in which the project is to be built has a history of requiring contractors to remove all abandoned underground lines, there is a much
lower risk of underground conflicts.
The selection of the project team can impact positively or negatively the probability of successful project completion. Design-bid-build projects that use procurement philosophies allowing all financially capable contractors to participate will likely experience a much higher level of risk to on-time performance than a procurement philosophy that requires qualification of proposed contractors to ensure that they have the appropriate experience and resources to construct the project. A single weak subcontractor on a project。