中信证券-环保行业2011年3月跟踪报告:水处理投资大,垃圾焚烧发展迅速-110314

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㸼ḐⳂᔩ
䞡⚍݀ৌⲜ߽乘⌟ǃԄؐঞᡩ䌘䆘㑻....................................................................................................................... 1 㸼 1˖2011 ᑈᬓᑰᎹ԰᡹ਞЁ⦃ֱⳌ݇‫ݙ‬ᆍ........................................................................................................... 1 㸼 2˖៥೑䞡䞥ሲ∵ᶧⱘЏ㽕ᴹ⑤............................................................................................................................ 2 㸼 3˖2011 ᑈ 2 ᳜䚼ߚජᏖ∈⊏⧚㾘ߦ................................................................................................................... 3 㸼 4˖2011 ᑈ 2 ᳜ᎹϮᑳ∈乍Ⳃ............................................................................................................................... 3 㸼 5˖2011 ᑈ 2 ᳜∵⊹໘㕂乍Ⳃ............................................................................................................................... 3 㸼 6˖2011 ᑈ 2 ᳜ൗഒ⛮⚻乍Ⳃ............................................................................................................................... 4 㸼 7˖2011 ᑈ 2 ᳜ൗഒ⏫Ⓒ⎆乍Ⳃ........................................................................................................................... 4 㸼 8˖⦃ֱϞᏖ݀ৌⲜ߽乘⌟ǃԄؐঞ䆘㑻............................................................................................................ 7
2.72
3.92
23
16
11
࿕ᄮ催里
41.95
2.27
2.79
3.69
18
15
11
啭‫ֱ⦃ޔ‬
31.94
1.20
1.32
1.45
27
24
22
ⲯ䖤㙵ӑ
33.13
0.46
0.79
1.09
72
42
30
फ⍋থሩ
16.98
2.04
0.66
0.76
8
26
22
‫ֱ⦃⊇ܜ‬
29.90
0.42
0.72
1.10
71
42
27
ᆠ᯹⦃ֱ
27.80
0.33
0.45
0.57
86
62
49
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖݀ৌ݀ਞǃЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ ⊼˖㙵ӋЎ 2011 ᑈ 3 ᳜ 11 ᮹ᬊⲬ
10Q3 P/B
5.7 6.0 10.4 12.0 7.0 3.3 4.9 3.1 4.4 6.9
䆘㑻
фܹ фܹ фܹ фܹ фܹ фܹ ๲ᣕ ๲ᣕ ๲ᣕ ๲ᣕ
乍Ⳃ䎳䏾˖∈⊏⧚ᡩ䌘ձ✊䕗໻ˈൗഒ⛮⚻থሩ䖙䗳 .......................................................................................... 3 ∈⊏⧚˖໮ජᏖߎৄᭈԧ㾘ߦ .......................................................................................................................... 3 ೎ᑳ⊏⧚˖ൗഒ⛮⚻ࠡ᱃ᑓ䯨 .......................................................................................................................... 4
ᑈ 12 ᳜䎳䏾᡹ਞNJ.................... 2010-12-30
4ˊlj㒭࡯Ā⦃ֱāˈᥬ䞥Āϗ᯳ā——݀⫼џ
Ϯ˄⦃ֱ˅2011 ᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹NJ. 2010-12-15
䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘ‫ܡ‬䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
⦃ֱ㸠Ϯ 2011 ᑈ 3 ᳜䎳䏾᡹ਞ
Ⳃᔩ
ᬓㄪࡼ৥˖ĀकѠѨā⦃ֱⳌ݇㾘ߦᇚ䗤ℹᯢ⹂ .................................................................................................... 1 ĀϸӮā˖⦃ֱ㾘ߦ߱䴆ッ‫ ׾‬............................................................................................................................ 1 䞡䞥ሲ∵ᶧ䰆⊏㾘ߦ⥛‫ܜ‬㦋ᡍ .......................................................................................................................... 2 ాໄ∵ᶧ᥻ࠊᓔྟᕫࠄ݇⊼ .............................................................................................................................. 2
ᴀ᳜ϧ乬˖∈⊹づणৠ໘⧚ൗഒࠡ᱃ⳟདDŽ⍋㶎䲚ಶ੠᮹ᴀᎱዢ݀ৌড়԰ ᓔথⱘ CKK ᡔᴃ߽⫼∈⊹ᑆ⊩づߚ㾷♝‫⏽ݙ‬ᑺ催˄900ćᎺে˅ǃ⇨ԧ➗⚻ ᯊ䯈‫ܙ‬䎇˄䭓䖒 7 金˅ㄝ⡍⚍ˈՓᕫൗഒ⇨࣪⇨ԧ䖯ܹߚ㾷♝ᯊ᠔ѻ⫳ⱘ Ѡక㣅ᅠܼ㹿ߚ㾷DŽ䞥䱙㙵ӑϟሲⱘᮄ࣫∈∈⊹ॖᰃܼ೑佪ᴵ߽⫼∈⊹づ ໘㕂ᎹϮᑳᓗ⠽⦃ֱ冫㣗㒓ˈЏ㽕໘⧚࣫ҀӕϮѻ⫳ⱘᎹϮॅᑳˈCEMS ᰒ冫㉝ᇬǃSO2 ⌧ᑺഛᰒ㨫ԢѢ 10mg/m3DŽ೼ᴵӊ䗖ᅰⱘഄऎˈ∈⊹づणৠ ໘⧚⫳⌏ൗഒ᳝ᳯ៤Ў៥೑ජᏖ೎ᑳ⦄᳝໘㕂ᮍᓣⱘ᳝࡯㸹‫ܙ‬DŽ
乍Ⳃ䎳䏾˖∈⊏⧚ᡩ䌘ձ✊䕗໻ˈൗഒ⛮⚻থሩ䖙䗳DŽ2 ᳜ˈ໽⋹ǃড়㙹ǃ ᮴䫵ǃᕤᎲǃᑓᎲঞ㢣ᎲㄝජᏖ‫ৄߎৢܜ‬њ∈⦃๗⊏⧚乚ඳⱘᑈᑺ㾘ߦˈ ᡩ䌘乱᱂䘡䍙䖛 10 ғ‫ܗ‬DŽ∵⊹໘⧚໘㕂ᮍ䴶ˈҡ໘Ѣ໮辵ᡔᴃ䏃㒓ᑊᄬ ⱘ䰊↉˗ϰ㧹ǃॺ䮼ǃ໻䖲ㄝഄ᳝໮Ͼൗഒ⛮⚻乍Ⳃ໘Ѣᓎ䆒䖯⿟Ёˈ࣫ Ҁ߭㾘ߦ೼ 2015 ᑈܼࠡ䴶ᓎ៤ 9 ᑻ໻ൟൗഒ⛮⚻ॖ˗໽⋹ঠষǃቅϰᇓ ‫⏫ⱘܝ‬Ⓒ⎆乍Ⳃؐᕫ݇⊼ˈ៥Ӏ䅸Ў䱣ⴔᥦᬒᷛ‫ⱘޚ‬ϡᮁϹḐˈ᮴䆎ᰃⳂ ࠡЏ⌕ⱘि⫳฿ඟˈ䖬ᰃ᳾ᴹথሩぎ䯈ᑓ䯨ⱘൗഒ⛮⚻ˈ䛑ᇚᇍൗഒ⏫Ⓒ ⎆໘㕂䆒ᮑѻ⫳䕗໻ⱘᡩ䌘䳔∖DŽ
ᦦ೒Ⳃᔩ
೒ 1˖᳾ᴹ 10 ᑈ៥೑⦃ֱѻϮথሩᗱ䏃.................................................................................................................. 1 ೒ 2˖䪰䱉߽⫼∈⊹づ໘⧚⫳⌏ൗഒᡔᴃ˄CKK ㋏㒳˅ ...................................................................................... 5 ೒ 3˖Ѡక㣅೼催⏽ϟߚ㾷 ....................................................................................................................................... 5 ೒ 4˖ᮄ࣫∈∈⊹ॖᓎ៤ᯊ֓ᡓᢙⴔ࣫ҀᏖ⦃๗џӊᑨᗹ໘㕂ӏࡵ .................................................................... 5 ೒ 5˖2009 ᑈҹᴹ໻Ⲭঞ⦃ֱᣛ᭄㌃䅵⍼ᐙ........................................................................................................... 6 ೒ 6˖2011 ᑈҹᴹ໻Ⲭঞ⦃ֱᣛ᭄㌃䅵⍼ᐙ........................................................................................................... 6
㸠Ϯ亢䰽DŽഄᮍᬓᑰ಴䋶ᬓㄝ䯂乬᥼䖳⦃ֱᓎ䆒៪Ҭℒϡঞᯊ˗䚼ߚ㒚ߚ 乚ඳゲѝ▔⚜ˈӋḐ៬៪य़Ԣ㸠ϮⲜ߽∈ᑇDŽ
㓈ᣕ㸠ϮĀᔎѢ໻Ꮦā䆘㑻ˈᡞᦵᬓㄪᏺᴹⱘᵓഫᴎ䘛DŽĀϸӮāᳳ䯈ঞ 2011 ᑈϞञᑈˈ៥೑⦃ֱ乚ඳⳌ݇ᣛ᳝ᷛᳯ䗤ℹᯢ⹂ˈᬓㄪ㾘ߦгᇚ䰚㓁 ߎৄˈⳂࠡЎᵓഫ៬⬹ᗻᏗሔⱘ㡃དᯊ⚍DŽ㓈ᣕ㸠ϮĀᔎѢ໻Ꮦāᡩ䌘䆘 㑻ˈᓎ䆂ᡩ䌘㗙݇⊼ϸᴵᡩ䌘Џ㒓˖ᡞᦵᬓㄪ᥼ࡼᏺᴹⱘᵓഫᡩ䌘ᴎ䘛ˈ ҹঞߚѿӬ࢓ӕϮⱘ催䗳៤䭓DŽ‫݋‬ԧᷛⱘᮍ䴶ˈ៥Ӏձ✊䞡⚍᥼㤤⹻∈⑤ǃ ݈㪝ᡩ䌘ǃḥᖋ⦃๗ǃЁᴤ೑䰙ǃ࿕ᄮ催里ঞ啭‫ֱ⦃ޔ‬DŽ
䞡⚍݀ৌⲜ߽乘⌟ǃԄؐঞᡩ䌘䆘㑻
ㅔ鹵
㙵Ӌ
EPS (‫)ܗ‬
P/E
(‫)ܗ‬
10E
11E
12E
10E
11E
12E
⹻∈⑤
113.64 1.20
2.88
4.22
95
39
27
݈㪝ᡩ䌘
20.69
0.51
0.86
0.94
41
24
22
ḥᖋ⦃๗
30.20
0.51
0.70
1.00
59
43
30
Ёᴤ೑䰙
44.46
1.92
ᴀ᳜ϧ乬˖∈⊹づणৠ໘⧚ൗഒࠡ᱃ⳟད .............................................................................................................. 4 ᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹˖㸠ϮĀᔎѢ໻Ꮦāˈᡞᦵᬓㄪᏺᴹⱘᵓഫᴎ䘛 .................................................................................... 5
Ⳍᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄
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䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindǃЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼
㸠Ϯ㸼ᕕᣛᷛ
㸠Ϯ᱃⇨䍟࢓
⦃ֱĖ
㸠Ϯ߽⍺๲䭓⥛ 㸠ϮԄؐ∈ᑇ 㸠Ϯᡩ䌘䆘㑻
䕗 10 ᑈϞ⍼㑺 30% 11P/E=40 ᔎѢ໻Ꮦ
Ⳍ݇ⷨお
1ˊlj䖢᥹ᬓㄪߎৄˈᡞᦵᵓഫᴎ䘛——⦃ֱ㸠
Ϯᬓㄪߚᵤϧ乬ⷨお᡹ਞNJ........ 2011-2-22
2ˊljᡞᦵᬓㄪ㛝᧣ˈᥬ䞥Ӭ࢓ӕϮ——⦃ֱ㸠
Ϯϧ乬ⷨお᡹ਞNJ........................ 2011-1-20
3ˊlj㾘ߦ⏤䍟ᯢᳫˈ∈乚ඳফⲞᯢ⹂——2010
⥟⍋ᯁ
Ёֵ䆕ࠌ⬉࡯ঞ݀⫼џϮ㸠ϮߚᵤᏜˈljᮄ 䋶ᆠNJ2009 ᑈ⬉࡯݀⫼џϮ㸠Ϯ᳔Շߚᵤ ᏜDŽ 䚂ӊ˖wanghx@citics.com ⬉䆱˖021-68762230 ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120063
ਈ䴲
Ёֵ䆕ࠌ⬉࡯ঞ݀⫼џϮ㸠Ϯ佪ᐁߚᵤ ᏜDŽljᮄ䋶ᆠNJ2007-2010 ᑈ⬉࡯݀⫼џϮ 㸠Ϯ᳔ՇߚᵤᏜDŽ 䚂ӊ˖wf@citics.com ⬉䆱˖021-68761840 ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120066
2011 ᑈ 3 ᳜ 14 ᮹
䆕ࠌⷨお᡹ਞg㸠Ϯⷨおg⦃ֱ
⦃ֱ㸠Ϯ 2011 ᑈ 3 ᳜䎳䏾᡹ਞ
∈໘⧚ᡩ䌘໻ˈൗഒ⛮⚻থሩ䖙䗳
ᔎѢ໻Ꮦ˄㓈ᣕ˅
ᡩ䌘㽕⚍
Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼
ᬓㄪࡼ৥˖ĀकѠѨā⦃ֱⳌ݇㾘ߦᇚ䗤ℹᯢ⹂DŽĀकѠѨāЏ㽕∵ᶧ⠽ⱘ ᥦᬒᘏ䞣ᇚ‫ޣ‬ᇥ 8%̚10%ˈϢ⦃ֱⳌ݇ⱘ‫݋‬ԧ㾘ߦ៪䘒 20 乍ˈ݊Ё䕗Ў 䞡㽕ⱘࣙᣀ䞡⚍⌕ඳ⊏⧚㾘ߦǃऎඳ໻⇨∵ᶧ㘨䰆㘨᥻㾘ߦㄝDŽ䞡䞥ሲ∵ ᶧ䰆⊏㾘ߦ⥛‫ܜ‬㦋ᡍˈĀकѠѨāᳳ䯈Ё༂䋶ᬓ៪ҹⱒғ‫ܗ‬Ўऩԡ๲ࡴᇍ䞡 䞥ሲ∵ᶧ䰆⊏ⱘᡩ䌘DŽాໄ∵ᶧ᥻ࠊᓔྟᕫࠄ݇⊼ˈ೼ᬓㄪᬃᣕϟ᳝ᳯ៤ Ў៥೑ᮄⱘ㒣⌢๲䭓⚍੠ᡩ䌘⛁⚍DŽ
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