股票预期价格模型及运用(心理学拟合模型)

摘要

股票预期价格模型及运用

摘要

股票定价一直是人们关心的热点焦点问题，投资者在投资时常常会应用一些理论知识来指导。但对于瞬息万变的市场，人们常常会束手无策。股票定价理论的发展，从传统的定价理论，到现代定价理论，再到现代金融工程，越来越深入地研究股票的内在价值。但是，经济学本身作为一门不完善不系统的科学，仍然需要大量的研究来寻求其中的规律。至于在股票市场，一些西方的定价理论在中国的特殊坏境下却达不到预期的效果，所以寻求新的方法很必要。

本文不去研究股票的内在价值，认为股票的价值本身会在市场表达出来。本文从新的角度出发，利用投资者对股票价格的预期，根据每个价位的概率不同，用卡方分布拟合，以求得差价的期望值。然后加上股票即时价格（交易价格），便得到股票期望价格。理论上通过所有人的预期能够得到市场上股票价格的期望值，但在实际中很难操作。为了解决这个问题，本文提出用统计取样的方法来求出部分人的预期。在随机取样的前提下，能得到一个趋近于市场股票价格期望值的价格，根据此价格来指导投资。要说明的是，由于取样没有代表整体，所以也存在风险。

关键词：股票定价卡方分布拟合预期价格统计取样

Abstract

Abstract

The pricing of stock, a focal problem, has been paid close attention by everyone. The investors often apply some speculative knowledge to investment. People often will be at a loss what to do because of the changing market. Stock pricing theory of development, from the traditional pricing theory, to modern pricing theory, and then to modern financial engineering, more and more in-depth research the intrinsic value of the stock. But, economics itself as an imperfect system of the science of not, still need a great deal of research to seek some rules. As for in the stock market, some western pricing theory in China's special atmosphere still can not reach the expected effect, so seeking new method is very necessary.

This paper is not to study the intrinsic value of the stock, think that the value of the stock market will express itself in. This article from a new angle, makes use of stock price expectation of investors, According to the probability of each price, with the chi-square distribution fitting, in order to achieve the expectations of price. Adding stock instant price (market price), then get stock price expectation. In theory, through all people’ expecting could get the stock price expectations the market, but in practice, it is difficult to operate. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes the use of statistical sampling method to ask out part of people's expectations. Under random sampling, it can get a close to the market price of the stock price expectation. And finally accord the price to direct investment. To explain, because no representative sampling of the whole people, it still is at risk.

Key words:stock pricing, chi-square distribution, fitting, expected price, statistical sampling

序言

股票定价仍然是经济学和金融学的重点问题之一。从传统的股票定价理论到现代的股票定价理论，再到现代的金融工程，对股票进行一系列的探讨。虽然经过这些深入的探究，股票定价理论仍然不成熟、不完善。2000年。罗伯特·J·希勒在《非理性繁荣》里说道：“我们应当牢记，股市定价并未形成一门完美的科学。”

投资者根据自己的认知、了解，试图对股票进行分析，并且预测未来股票价格，以期得到收益。那应该如何进行股票定价来买进未来见长的股票或抛出未来走跌的股票呢？凯恩斯在《就业、利息和货币通论》（徐毓枬译）中写道：“人生有限，故人性喜欢速效，对于即刻致富之道最感兴趣，而于遥远未来能够得到的好处，普通人都要大打折扣。”由此推断，股票价格“只是一群无知无识者群众心理之产物，自会因群众之骤变而剧烈波动。”这时，投资者用投机者代替更为恰当了。

由于我国股市成立时间短，对股票定价也大多局限于借鉴、引用西方股票定价理论，在西方屡试不爽的理论在我国出了较大的偏差。我国投资者由于信息的缺乏、能力的不足、或者股市不确定性的波动，大多数人在里面栽了跟头。

如何做一个理性的投资者，而非一个冲动的投机者呢？本文从新的角度出发，试图对股票价格进行预测。