投资学论文

西南财经大学《投资学》论文
学生姓名：
班级：
学号：
2012年5月
Real estate market analysis
一、Price of Real estate trend analysis
Graph 1: Charting of real estate market
We can see from the graph, Chinese real estate has been rising all the way. In the era of commerical economy, Chinese housing supplying is less than demand, admittedly, this is the direct reason lead to rising of housing price. In supply, first, the land is non-renewable resources, our country have a big population, land for housing is very limited in every cities. Second, the governments at all levels saling the house by auction which improve housing prices virtually. Third, with inflation, cost of building house is raised. From the demand side, on the one hand, Chinese population has exceeded 1.3 billion, this is a rigid demand of housing. On the other hand, speculators see the opportunity in the real estate market, with the inflation continuing, people are more willing to put the money for investment, this making the real estate market stressing.
2005, wealthes continue to put money into the real estate market to earn more money, and poors still poor.So,goverment change the control policy to " increase supply and reduce demand" and make the real estate market as an important aspects of macroeconomic control to restrain bubble economy.
二、The government's macroeconomic regulation to control the real estate price
increase
In 2006,because of the policy before is not reasonable, small and medium-sized housing ratio by declining, speculators to high grade large family housing preferences, housing prices rise deformity. 2005 unreasonable supply structure phenomenon not be suppressed, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other major cities house prices soared, which drive the national house prices increase of the city.April 27, the central bank raised lending rates of each level 0.27%, increasing interest rates is inhibit speculation, stable prices. may, nine departments develop 《关于调整住房供应结构稳定住房价格的意见》clearly requirements in various cities announced common commerical house, economy applicable room and low-cost housing construction goal before the end of September, proposed the "9070" policy (housing below 90 square meters of residential ratio must be achieve 70% in development area). It means that macroeconomic policy pay more attantion on the real estate of social life, housing structure and the housing price control, solving the housing problem in the
low-income families’ priority.
In 2007, the Ministry of Land and Resources increase land regulation, the tax control as the main means, change the pay of land value added tax of real estate enterprise to "settlement system", increase the tax burden of large family model, and increase the security of poors, inhibit the inflation.In August, return to security, housing problem is an important problem of the livelihood of the people, the party central committee and the State Council Attaches has great importance to solving the housing problem. Just a half year time the central bank raised interest rates five times, to restrain the inflation .In September, the central bank issued new policies that purchase second housing ratio shall not be less than 50%, strictly management of development loans , real estate development loans , land reserve loans and commercial housing purchase loan and so on.In 2007 the central bank to raise deposit reserve nine times, finally produced results, the fast growth of the real estate economics comes to a slow down trend.
In 2008, continuing to through the land distribution, fiscal policy control the prices. January 15, raising financial institutions RMB deposit reserve rate 0.5%.It already rise to 15% and creating Chinese history since 1984, clear release the tight monetary policy signals. May 30, the land again valve tight,set the commerical residential house development should not over three years; and keeping the land away will be severely punish, enterprise buy room for individual need to impose individual income tax, small property will not get the homestead certificates and any other policies to achieve the low-rent housing guarantee to 3.5 million households. Due to the influence of the World Financial Crisis, Chinese real estate bubble economy obvious, in late 2008 the central bank decrease RMB deposit reserve rate and the benchmark of lending rates, and a series of new policies to support real estate, prevent the real estate market atrophy too fast. November 10, goverment release four trillion
to stimulating consumption ,China come into the second round of inflation.
At the beginning of 2009, Banks have issued that superior customer should
borrow from the bank with seventy percent discount interest rate , the property market warming up. In may, the state council continue to expanding domestic demand to promote the steady economic rapid development. Expanding land of the livelihood of the people use, ensure land of Security room.At the end of this month,coming up with Security room and Common commerical housing first shoud pay twenty persent which is ten persent less than others.It means policy began to relax.
In 2010, the real estate long share price is relatively stable,the risk of assets turning into a bubble-and decrease .The government has been release policy actively to rectify the real estate market order. January 10 promulgated "国十一条", confirm the 2010 market regulation fundamental view,.It shows the determination of the central to restrain the rising of non-rational price. As followed, “新国十条”, “9.29新政” define house property tax, Strictly strike people who buy outside in other cities. It is the real estate market’s "timely rain".
In 2011, to curb the housing price increase too fast, several departments jointly issued the 《房地产经纪管理办法》, carries out The State Council regulating of real estate . The state council issued the "国八条".Raise the deposit reserved and increase the interest rate.Successively many times to raise deposit reserve and increases in interest rates, Start housing property tax pilot in Shanghai and Chongqing ,in order to restraining overheating in housing prices.
三、Stocks analysis——Lander real estate（000558）
In 2011, the national commerical house sales 1.099 billion square metres,
year-on-year increase by 4.9%, droped 5.7% than the previous year. Commerical house sales for 5.9 trillion, year-on-year increase by 12.1%, droped 6.8% than the previous year.The Real estate loans year-on-year growth , in April 2010 reach the highest 46.4%, after this begin falling, in December 2011, it slightly rebounded.
By the end of 2011, the surplus development loan of national affordable housing is 340.9 billion , take 12.5% of the real estate development loan .all the year, totally increased 175.1 billion , 31.7% higher than the beginning of this year.
At the end of 2007,Lander real estate begin to emphasis to invest in
east .Especially in second or third level cities , responding the government’s call to achieve sustainable
development.
Graph 2:Lander real estate’s price from 2006 to 2011 Throughout Lander real estate’s fluctuations in price since 2006, we could do three parts analysis.In 06, 07 , the real estate market increase rapidly. Because of
inflation and the people’s demand for housing, prices are rising quickly.With the real estate industry’s background, the Lander real estate once rise to 19.9 from 3.46, it’s
4.75 times higher than begining. From 2007 to 2009 , in the background of the World
Financial Crisis, the price of shock decrease, which not escape the influence of the World Financial Crisis. At the same time, the stock market reaction the bubble
economy in our country’s real estate market . The stock market at a high price just in a short time.In 2009-2011, smooth moving. The government take policy
actively,first payment 60% if you buy the second housing. The policy said that the goverment make up its mind in tabilize housing prices.
Graph 3:from Tonghuashun
We can see from the graph ,because of the World Financial Crisis, earning pare share is less than 2007 and 2009.And with the goverment’s macroscopic
readjustment and control, the level of 2010 and 2011 are also low .But we can see the price trend to increase in furture.
Graph 4:sina finance and economics
Comparing with first quarter of 2012 and 2011, operating profit rale is negative,but rale of return on sale is high . Rate of cost decrease because the company start involving in source , the investment is higher than befor .And rate of total and net assets grouth are increase.So we think the price of Lander real estate will increase.
In my opinion, because of the supply and the demand of housing is not balance in our country . second ,speculator also take action, the demand of large and medium-sized commerical houseing still rising house prices . Meanwhile,there are many young like us need to buy housing, small and medium-sized family housing still has a great demand. Only when the supply and demand becom balance ,the house price will not rise rapidly.
参考文献：
1、我国房地产价格上涨的原因，2010-12-04，百度文库
2、付艳红，我国政府在房地产市场调控中的角色研究，（2008）
3、《2011年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》，中国人民银行
4、莱茵置业2011年年度报告
5、刘旭，我国房地产业与区域经济发展研究
6、莱茵置业:积极介入资源型行业，新浪财经
7、老钱庄百宝箱
8、2006年～2011年主要房地产宏观调控政策
9、2006—2011年我国宏观调控大事记
10、莱茵置业年度2011年度报告，巨潮资讯网。