基于专利文献的技术商业化潜力研究―――以3D打印技术为例(精)

收稿日期:2016-05-24 修回日期:2016-08-01

基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目 破坏性创新环境下的未来创新路径研究:构建数据挖掘与技术预测桥梁的视角”(编号:71503020)和教育部人文社会科学基金项目 面向新兴技术的发展路径研究:以纳米药物递呈系统为例”(编号:13YJC630042)研究成果之一㊂

作者简介:钱　越(ORCID:0000-0002-5559-9829),女,1994年生,硕士研究生,研究方向:技术创新管理;黄　颖(ORCID:0000-0003-0115-4581),男,1990年生,博士研究生,研究方向:技术创新管理㊁文本挖掘;郭　颖(ORCID:0000-0001-9846-9875),女,1984年生,博士,讲师,研究生导师,研究方向:技术创新管理㊁技术评价;孙甘露(ORCID:0000-0002-3897-5271),女,1991年生,硕士研究生,研究方向:技术创新管理㊂

基于专利文献的技术商业化潜力研究

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以3D 打印技术为例

钱　越　黄　颖　郭　颖　孙甘露

(北京理工大学管理与经济学院　北京　100081)

摘　要　[目的/意义]技术只有经过商业化才能与经济㊁社会发展产生联系,并创造出实际价值㊂技术从研发到推广都具有不确定性,技术投入是否能带来预期的经济效益是目前技术转化研究的重点,通过构建客观的技术商业化潜力评价模型辅助决策者科学合理地选择技术投资方案㊂[方法/过程]基于专利数据和商业数据,构建了一个技术商业化潜力评价模型,从技术成熟度㊁技术机会和技术所处行业的竞争环境三方面科学㊁客观地评价3D 打印技术的发展趋势和商业化潜力,并揭示了中国市场的重要影响㊂[结果/结论]研究结果表明当前3D 打印行业正处于快速成长期,技术成熟度高;领域细化分支多㊁涵盖面广,环保节能材料研究成为新亮点;行业竞争激烈,大企业整合产业链,中小企业大批涌入,商业化潜力可观㊂验证了依据商业化过程提出的三个评价角度具有一致性和递进性㊂关键词　专利分析　S 曲线　商业化潜力　3D 打印

中图分类号　G306 文献标识码　A 文章编号　1002-1965(2016)10-0059-06引用格式　钱　越,黄　颖,郭　颖,等.基于专利文献的技术商业化潜力研究[J ].情报杂志,2016,35(10):59-64,172.

DOI 10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2016.10.011

Research on the Potential Evaluation of Technological Commercialization

Based on Patent Data :A Case Study of 3D Printing

Qian Yue Huang Ying Guo Ying Sun Ganlu

(School of Management and Economics ,Beijing Institute of Technology ,Beijing 100081)

Abstract [Purpose /Significance ]Technologies will build connections with economic &social development and produce real value through the process of commercialization.Since the great uncertainty from technology R&D to technology application ,the focus of techni⁃cal transformation is on whether the technology input may bring expected economic benefits.Therefore ,an objective evaluation model on the potential evaluation of technological commercialization is necessary to help decision -makers choose a scientific and reasonable technol⁃ogy investment program.[Method /Process ]Based on patent data and commercial data ,this paper constructs an evaluation model on esti⁃mating the potential for technological commercialization from the three aspects :technology maturity ,technology opportunity and competi⁃tive environment.[Result /Conclusion ]The results show that :3D printing is in the stage of rapid development ,with high technology ma⁃turity ;Its research fields diffuse extensively ,and environment -friendly &energy -saving materials become a hot -topic ;The overall fierce competition environment that a flock of emerging companies swarm into the market and the giants integrate their industrial chains ,indicates that 3D printing has great commercial potentials currently and in the near future.Key words patent analysis S curve commercial potential 3D printing

第35卷　第10期2016年10月 情　报　杂　志JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENCE

Vol.35　No.10

Oct.　2016