库存管理论文：库存管理库存控制模型需求预测

库存管理论文：库存管理库存控制模型需求预测

【中文摘要】面对巨大的市场竞争压力,国内各大通信运营商对于可以提高企业核心竞争力的各种营销方法和管理模式创新均表现

出巨大的热情,尤其体现在成本、服务、信息化及效率等方面。G省电信分公司从2006年开始针对常用电信物资实施供应商囤货管理模式,以期降低自有库存成本。电信物资具有类别多、规格杂、需求变化快、随机性大、价格变动频繁、保值能力低、缺货成本极高等特点。在实施囤货管理的过程中如何保证较高的供货服务水平以避免由于

缺货而造成客户资源流失,同时降低平均库存金额以减轻供应商的囤货压力,是衡量囤货管理模式成功与否的关键,而这又取决于库存管

理水平的高低。本文以G省电信分公司的囤货物资库存管理为背景,针对服务水平、库存周转率两个库存管理核心指标,利用多Agent技术,开发了一个能根据真实历史数据利用不同预测算法比较、确定最优订货批量的库存管理系统,即基于预测的多Agent电信物资库存管理系统(Multi-Agent Telecommunication Goods Inventory Management System,MTGIMS)。本文的主要工作内容及创新之处如下:1、应用面向Agent的MaSE系统开发方法,按照多Agent的技术路线和思想,对电信物资库存管理进行了系统设计。2、根据电信物资的需求特点,结合G电信的采购操作实际,分别选择了“定期订货随机需求随机到货时间库存控制模型”及“移动平均法”、“指数移动平均法”、“带趋势的指数移动平均法”三种时间序列预测方法作为MTGIMS的

预测算法,并分别提出了相应算法,对计算结果进行了比较与分析。3、利用G电信真实的历史需求数据进行了实证研究,进一步验证MTGIMS 的预测结果的准确性,比较其与历史数据在服务水平、库存周转率等

指标之间的变化。本文的研究表明,利用多Agent技术的智能性、自

组织和自适应性等特征,通过将库存控制模型和时间序列预测方法有

机的结合起来,开发出了适合电信物资管理特征的库存管理系统,依

靠足够充分的历史数据,可以有效地进行订货批量预测,从而能够更

高效、更准确地进行库存管理。通过本文的研究,一方面将多Agent

技术引入电信物资的库存管理实践,通过库存预测构建电信物资库存

管理系统中;另一方面,该库存管理系统将有效改善电信物资的采购、成本管理,对G省电信分公司的囤货物资库存管理具有较大的实际意

义和推广价值。

【英文摘要】Facing gigantic market competition pressure, the business communicating corpo-rations in the homeland have shown great fervency in improving various marketing methods and in innovating managing patterns. Such fervency is reflected in aspects such as cost, service, information and efficiency.The G provincial telecommunication branch company starts the cost managing pattern, trying to reduce the self stock valuation. Telecommunication goods and mate-rials are characterized by the various categories, different specifications, quick changes in demands, wide randomness, frequent changes in prices,

low hedging capacity and high cost of out-of-stock goods. How to ensure the supply of goods to attract cus-tomers during the process of storing goods and to reduce average storing cost in order to relieve the pressure on suppliers are the keys to judge whether the goods storing managing methods are successful or not. And this depends on the managing ability of the storing goods.From the purpose of application and using the examples of managing the storing goods in G provincial telecommunication branch company, this article studies two stock control core indices (service level and stock turnover ratio) and developed a multi-agent telecommunication goods inventory management system (MTGIMS) by using multi-agent technology. This system is used to decide the best quantity of order-ing goods. Its main functions and innovative contents are as follows:1. By applying system exploitation methods raised by the MaSE system for agents and using the multi-agent technology theory, the writer of this article carefully de-signed telecommunication goods stock management.2. According to the characteristic of the demands of telecommunication goods and materials and studied the practical operation of G telecommunication corporation pur-chasing, the writer chose “the random need random ordering goods at the regular in-tervals comparatively arriving