改革以来中国经济周期波动分析(英文)
合集下载
相关主题
- 1、下载文档前请自行甄别文档内容的完整性，平台不提供额外的编辑、内容补充、找答案等附加服务。
- 2、"仅部分预览"的文档,不可在线预览部分如存在完整性等问题,可反馈申请退款(可完整预览的文档不适用该条件!)。
- 3、如文档侵犯您的权益，请联系客服反馈,我们会尽快为您处理(人工客服工作时间：9:00-18:30)。
●The Performance of unstability:4 Cycles and 2 Stages
Table 1 Growth Rate and Inflation Rate of China since the Reform (1978-2004)
Year
1978 199
Real Growth Rate of GDP 11.7 7.6
Source: Table 1.
Figure 1 4 Business Cycles of China (1978-2004)
●Two Stages：（1）1978—1996, Fighting Inflation Stage （2）1997—2002, Fighting Deflation Stage
● 4 peaks of high inflation：
(1)1978:7.0%
(2)1985:8.8%
(3)1988:18.5%
(4)1994:21.7%
●Causes of High Inflation：
(1)The Demand-pulled Inflation
The AD expanding mechanism with Chinese characteristic：
Year
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Real Growth Rate of GDP 12.8 13.4 11.8 10.2 9.7 8.8 7.8
（%）
Inflation Rate 5.4 13.3 21.7 14.8 6.1 0.8 -2.6
(%)
2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 上半年 7.1 8.0 7.3 8.0 9.1 9.7 -3.0 0.4 1.0 -0.8 1.2 3.6
Cycle
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Sources: Table 1.
Lwenku.baidu.comngth of Time
Period
Years
1978-1983
6
Contraction
Period
Gap of Annual Growth Rate from Peak to Trough (%)
1978-1980
–7.2
(3 years)
Expansion
Period
Gap of Annual Growth Rate from Peak to Trough (%)
1981-1983 (3 years)
+10.0
1984-1987
4
1984-1985
–6.0
1986-1987
+2.8
(2 years)
(2 years)
1988-1992
Source:SSBC,Statistical Yearbook of China and Statistical Bulletin, related years, China Statistical Publishing House (CSPH).
h
2
Table 2 The Fluctuation Situation of 4 Business Cycles of China since the Reform
0
Year
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 200120022003 2004
-5
Source : Table 1.
(%)
Inflation Rate 7.0 2.0
(%)
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 7.9 4.5 8.5 10.2 14.5 6.0 2.4 1.9 1.5 2.8
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 12.9 8.5 11.1 11.3 4.3 3.9 7.0 8.8 6.0 7.3 18.5 17.8 2.1 2.9
The political decision by the highest leaders
→Investment projects approved be the National Plan committee
→Increasing the fiscal expenditure of investment by the Ministry of Finance,
h
4
2.The Causes of High Inflation during 1978-1996
● In this stage, the first problem of China’s economy is curbing the high inflation with
fast economic growth.
5
1988-1989
–7.4
1990-1992
+9.5
(2 years)
(3 years)
1993-present unknown
1993-2001 (8 years)
–6.3
2002- unknown
unknown
h
3
％％
25
20
Ⅰ
Ⅱ
Ⅲ
Ⅳ
15
10
Growth Rate
5
Inflation Rate
The CES Conference July 30-31, 2004
Atlanta,Georgia,U.S.A.
Changsheng Xu Professor of Economics School of Economics Huazhong University of Science & Technology Wuhan, China Email:chshxu@hotmail.com
and expanding the loan by the state-owned banks
→Expansion of AD →Economic growth↑ →Inflation rate↑
h
1
1.The Situation and Characteristics of China’s Business Cycles of 25 Years since the Reform
●General characteristic of China’s macroeconomy: high growth+unstability
Table 1 Growth Rate and Inflation Rate of China since the Reform (1978-2004)
Year
1978 199
Real Growth Rate of GDP 11.7 7.6
Source: Table 1.
Figure 1 4 Business Cycles of China (1978-2004)
●Two Stages：（1）1978—1996, Fighting Inflation Stage （2）1997—2002, Fighting Deflation Stage
● 4 peaks of high inflation：
(1)1978:7.0%
(2)1985:8.8%
(3)1988:18.5%
(4)1994:21.7%
●Causes of High Inflation：
(1)The Demand-pulled Inflation
The AD expanding mechanism with Chinese characteristic：
Year
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Real Growth Rate of GDP 12.8 13.4 11.8 10.2 9.7 8.8 7.8
（%）
Inflation Rate 5.4 13.3 21.7 14.8 6.1 0.8 -2.6
(%)
2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 上半年 7.1 8.0 7.3 8.0 9.1 9.7 -3.0 0.4 1.0 -0.8 1.2 3.6
Cycle
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Sources: Table 1.
Lwenku.baidu.comngth of Time
Period
Years
1978-1983
6
Contraction
Period
Gap of Annual Growth Rate from Peak to Trough (%)
1978-1980
–7.2
(3 years)
Expansion
Period
Gap of Annual Growth Rate from Peak to Trough (%)
1981-1983 (3 years)
+10.0
1984-1987
4
1984-1985
–6.0
1986-1987
+2.8
(2 years)
(2 years)
1988-1992
Source:SSBC,Statistical Yearbook of China and Statistical Bulletin, related years, China Statistical Publishing House (CSPH).
h
2
Table 2 The Fluctuation Situation of 4 Business Cycles of China since the Reform
0
Year
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 200120022003 2004
-5
Source : Table 1.
(%)
Inflation Rate 7.0 2.0
(%)
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 7.9 4.5 8.5 10.2 14.5 6.0 2.4 1.9 1.5 2.8
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 12.9 8.5 11.1 11.3 4.3 3.9 7.0 8.8 6.0 7.3 18.5 17.8 2.1 2.9
The political decision by the highest leaders
→Investment projects approved be the National Plan committee
→Increasing the fiscal expenditure of investment by the Ministry of Finance,
h
4
2.The Causes of High Inflation during 1978-1996
● In this stage, the first problem of China’s economy is curbing the high inflation with
fast economic growth.
5
1988-1989
–7.4
1990-1992
+9.5
(2 years)
(3 years)
1993-present unknown
1993-2001 (8 years)
–6.3
2002- unknown
unknown
h
3
％％
25
20
Ⅰ
Ⅱ
Ⅲ
Ⅳ
15
10
Growth Rate
5
Inflation Rate
The CES Conference July 30-31, 2004
Atlanta,Georgia,U.S.A.
Changsheng Xu Professor of Economics School of Economics Huazhong University of Science & Technology Wuhan, China Email:chshxu@hotmail.com
and expanding the loan by the state-owned banks
→Expansion of AD →Economic growth↑ →Inflation rate↑
h
1
1.The Situation and Characteristics of China’s Business Cycles of 25 Years since the Reform
●General characteristic of China’s macroeconomy: high growth+unstability