Maximum likelihood and the information bottleneck

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服从指数分布的极大似然估计的实际例子

服从指数分布的极大似然估计的实际例子

服从指数分布的极大似然估计的实际例子1.统计学家使用极大似然估计来估计指数分布的参数。

Statisticians use maximum likelihood estimation toestimate the parameters of the exponential distribution.2.通过估计参数λ,我们可以更好地了解指数分布中事件发生的方式。

By estimating the parameter λ, we can gain a better understanding of how events occur in an exponential distribution.3.极大似然估计是一种常用的统计方法,可用于估计各种类型的分布。

Maximum likelihood estimation is a commonly usedstatistical method that can be used to estimate various types of distributions.4.我们可以使用极大似然估计来估计指数分布的中位数或平均值。

We can use maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the median or mean of the exponential distribution.5.估计出的参数可以用于预测未来事件的发生情况。

The estimated parameters can be used to predict the occurrence of future events.6.极大似然估计需要收集一定数量的数据来进行计算。

Maximum likelihood estimation requires collecting a sufficient amount of data for computation.7.通过比较不同参数值下的似然函数,我们可以找到最可能的参数值。

Maximum Likelihood的matlab实现

Maximum Likelihood的matlab实现


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ln p( x, f 0 ) 取得最大值时, p( x, f 0 ) 最大。
方案: 网格搜索法
ln p ( x, f 0 )
N 1 ln(2 2 ) 2 2 2
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2 ln p ( x, f ) ln p ( x, f ) f k 1 f k | f fk f 2 f
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( f f k ) 0 时,可认为迭代结束,得到估计量 f 0 差为 2 的 WGN,有 x[n]的 PDF 为
1 1 p ( x, f 0 ) exp[ 2 2 2
2
( x[n] cos 2 f0 n) ]
n 1
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f p( x, f 0 ) 求导,得 f 使得上式取得最大值时的 0 即为所求估计量 0 。对 N 1 ln p ( x, f 0 ) ln(2 2 ) 2 2 2
p( x x0 , ) 。 当 存 在 两 个 估 计 量 1 和 2 , 且
p( x x0 , 1 ) p( x x0 , 2 ) ,显然会更倾向于选取 1 为估计量,即 arg max p ( x, ) 。
似然函数 p ( x, ) 表征参数 给定条件下输入 x 的概率密度,当 时使 p ( x, ) 达到 最大,表明 使此输入 x 的出现概率最大。现在观测到的输入 x,可判断为由使它最可能出 现的那个 引起的。 因此,最大似然估计的优点是无需知道参量的先验知识,同时代价函数也不必给定, 对 未知先验概率的变量估计适用。 实验内容:

极大似然 拟合指标

极大似然 拟合指标

极大似然估计(Maximum Likelihood Estimation,MLE)是统计学中一种常用的参数估计方法。

它通过寻找参数值,使得观测数据在给定参数下的概率最大化,来估计模型的参数。

极大似然估计常用于拟合概率分布或模型到观测数据,以便更好地理解数据的生成过程或进行预测。

在极大似然估计中,通常使用似然函数(Likelihood Function)来表示观测数据在不同参数下的概率。

似然函数通常记为L(θ|X),其中θ表示待估计的参数,X表示观测数据。

极大似然估计的目标是找到最大化似然函数的参数θ:$$\hat{\theta}_{\text{MLE}} = \arg \max_{\theta} L(\theta|X)$$拟合指标通常用于评估极大似然估计的质量和模型拟合的好坏。

以下是一些常见的拟合指标:1. **对数似然(Log-Likelihood)**:对数似然是似然函数取对数的结果,通常用于数值计算和比较不同模型的拟合质量。

对数似然越大,表示模型对观测数据的拟合越好。

2. **AIC(Akaike Information Criterion)**:AIC是一种用于模型选择的指标,它考虑了对数似然和模型参数数量之间的权衡。

AIC越小,表示模型更好,因为它同时考虑了拟合程度和模型的复杂度。

3. **BIC(Bayesian Information Criterion)**:BIC也用于模型选择,类似于AIC,但对模型复杂度的惩罚更严格。

BIC同样越小越好。

4. **假设检验**:假设检验可以用于评估模型参数的显著性。

例如,对于回归模型,可以使用t检验或F检验来检验回归系数是否显著不同于零。

5. **残差分析**:在拟合模型时,对残差进行分析可以帮助评估模型的拟合质量。

残差是观测值与模型预测值之间的差异,正常情况下应该是随机的,没有明显的模式。

这些拟合指标可以帮助你评估极大似然估计的结果以及模型拟合的好坏。

方差稳健 The Sandwich Estimator

方差稳健 The Sandwich Estimator
As with the relation between (2) and (3) we can add an arbitrary function of the data (that does not depend on the parameter) to the right hand side of (4) and nothing of importance would change.
1.6.2 The Central Limit Theorem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.7 Asymptotics of Maximum Likelihood Estimators . . . . . . . . . 5
1.8 Observed Fisher Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.9 Plug-In . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.10 Sloppy Asymptotics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.2.1 Random Vectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3.2.2 Mean Vectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3.2.3 Variance Matrices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

2003年5月北美精算第四门考试试题

2003年5月北美精算第四门考试试题

Course 4Fall 2003 Society of Actuaries**BEGINNING OF EXAMINATION** 1. You are given the following information about a stationary AR(2) model:=.(i) ρ105(ii) ρ201=.Determine φ2.(A) –0.2(B) 0.1(C) 0.4(D) 0.7(E) 1.0(i) Losses follow a loglogistic distribution with cumulative distribution function:F x x x b g b g b g =+//θθγγ1(ii)The sample of losses is:10 35 80 86 90 120 158 180 200 210 1500Calculate the estimate of θ by percentile matching, using the 40th and 80th empirically smoothed percentile estimates.(A) Less than 77(B) At least 77, but less than 87(C) At least 87, but less than 97(D) At least 97, but less than 107(E) At least 107(i) The number of claims has a Poisson distribution.(ii) Claim sizes have a Pareto distribution with parameters θ=0.5 and α=6.(iii) The number of claims and claim sizes are independent.(iv) The observed pure premium should be within 2% of the expected pure premium 90% of the time.Determine the expected number of claims needed for full credibility.(A) Less than 7,000(B) At least 7,000, but less than 10,000(C) At least 10,000, but less than 13,000(D) At least 13,000, but less than 16,000(E) At least 16,0004. You study five lives to estimate the time from the onset of a disease to death. The times todeath are:2 3 3 3 7Using a triangular kernel with bandwidth 2, estimate the density function at 2.5.(A) 8/40(B) 12/40(C) 14/40(D) 16/40(E) 17/405. For the model i i i Y X αβε=++, where 1,2,...,10i =, you are given:(i) X i i =R S T1, if the th individual belongs to a specified group 0, otherwise(ii) 40 percent of the individuals belong to the specified group.(iii) The least squares estimate of β is β=4.(iv) ()2ˆˆ92i i Y X αβ−−=∑Calculate the t statistic for testing H 00:β=.(A) 0.9(B) 1.2(C) 1.5(D) 1.8(E) 2.1(i) Losses follow a Single-parameter Pareto distribution with density function:()()1,1f x x xαα+=>, 0 < α < ∞ (ii) A random sample of size five produced three losses with values 3, 6 and 14, and twolosses exceeding 25.Determine the maximum likelihood estimate of α.(A) 0.25(B) 0.30(C) 0.34(D) 0.38(E) 0.42(i) The annual number of claims for a policyholder has a binomial distribution withprobability function:()()221x x p x q q q x −⎛⎞=−⎜⎟⎝⎠, x = 0, 1, 2(ii) The prior distribution is:()34,01q q q π=<<This policyholder had one claim in each of Years 1 and 2.Determine the Bayesian estimate of the number of claims in Year 3.(A) Less than 1.1(B) At least 1.1, but less than 1.3(C) At least 1.3, but less than 1.5(D) At least 1.5, but less than 1.7(E) At least 1.78. For a sample of dental claims 1210,,...,x x x , you are given:(i) 23860 and 4,574,802i i x x ==∑∑(ii) Claims are assumed to follow a lognormal distribution with parameters µ and σ.(iii)µ and σ are estimated using the method of moments.Calculate ∧ for the fitted distribution.(A) Less than 125(B) At least 125, but less than 175(C) At least 175, but less than 225(D) At least 225, but less than 275(E) At least 2759. You are given:(i)Y tij is the loss for the j th insured in the i th group in Year t . (ii)ti Y is the mean loss in the i th group in Year t . (iii)X j i j i ij =R S T0, if the th insured is in the first group (=1)1, if the th insured is in the second group (=2) (iv)21ij ij ij ij Y Y X δφθε=+++, where 1,2i = and 1,2,...,j n = (v)Y Y Y Y 2122111230374041====,,, (vi) ˆ0.75φ=Determine the least-squares estimate of θ.(A) 5.25(B) 5.50(C) 5.75(D) 6.00(E) 6.2510. Two independent samples are combined yielding the following ranks:Sample I: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 13, 19, 20Sample II: 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18You test the null hypothesis that the two samples are from the same continuous distribution.The variance of the rank sum statistic is:()112n m n m ++Using the classical approximation for the two-tailed rank sum test, determine the p -value.(A) 0.015(B) 0.021(C) 0.105(D) 0.210(E) 0.420(i) Claim counts follow a Poisson distribution with mean θ. (ii) Claim sizes follow an exponential distribution with mean 10θ. (iii) Claim counts and claim sizes are independent, given θ. (iv) The prior distribution has probability density function:b g=5, θ>1πθθCalculate Bühlmann’s k for aggregate losses.(A) Less than 1(B) At least 1, but less than 2(C) At least 2, but less than 3(D) At least 3, but less than 4(E) At least 4(i) A survival study uses a Cox proportional hazards model with covariates Z 1 and Z 2,each taking the value 0 or 1.(ii) The maximum partial likelihood estimate of the coefficient vector is:, .,.ββ12071020e j b g=(iii) The baseline survival function at time t 0 is estimated as .S t 0065b g =.Estimate S t 0b gfor a subject with covariate values 121Z Z ==.(A) 0.34(B) 0.49(C) 0.65(D) 0.74(E) 0.84(i) Z 1 and Z 2 are independent N(0,1) random variables.(ii) a , b , c , d , e , f are constants.(iii) Y a bZ cZ X d eZ f Z =++=++1212 andDetermine ()E Y X .(A) a(B) ()()a b c X d ++−(C) a be cf X d ++−b gb g(D) a be cf e f +++g d /22(E) a be cf e f X d +++−g d g/22(i) Losses on a company’s insurance policies follow a Pareto distribution with probabilitydensity function:()(),0f x x x θθθ=<<∞+(ii) For half of the company’s policies θ=1, while for the other half θ=3.For a randomly selected policy, losses in Year 1 were 5.Determine the posterior probability that losses for this policy in Year 2 will exceed 8.(A) 0.11(B) 0.15(C) 0.19(D) 0.21(E) 0.2715. You are given total claims for two policyholders:Year1 2 3 4PolicyholderX 730 800 650 700Y 655 650 625 750Using the nonparametric empirical Bayes method, determine the Bühlmann credibilitypremium for Policyholder Y.(A) 655(B) 670(C) 687(D) 703(E) 71916. A particular line of business has three types of claims. The historical probability and thenumber of claims for each type in the current year are:Type HistoricalProbabilityNumber of Claimsin Current YearA 0.2744 112B 0.3512 180C 0.3744 138You test the null hypothesis that the probability of each type of claim in the current year is the same as the historical probability.Calculate the chi-square goodness-of-fit test statistic.(A) Less than 9(B) At least 9, but less than 10(C) At least 10, but less than 11(D) At least 11, but less than 12(E) At least 1217. Which of the following is false?(A) If the characteristics of a stochastic process change over time, then the process isnonstationary.(B) Representing a nonstationary time series by a simple algebraic model is often difficult.(C) Differences of a homogeneous nonstationary time series will always be nonstationary.(D) If a time series is stationary, then its mean, variance and, for any lag k, covariancemust also be stationary.(E) If the autocorrelation function for a time series is zero (or close to zero) for all lagsk>0, then no model can provide useful minimum mean-square-error forecasts offuture values other than the mean.18. The information associated with the maximum likelihood estimator of a parameter θ is 4n,where n is the number of observations.Calculate the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of 2θ.(A) 12n(B) 1n(C) 4n(D) 8n(E) 16n19. You are given:(i) The probability that an insured will have at least one loss during any year is p.(ii) The prior distribution for p is uniform on []0,0.5.(iii) An insured is observed for 8 years and has at least one loss every year.Determine the posterior probability that the insured will have at least one loss during Year 9.(A) 0.450(B) 0.475(C) 0.500(D) 0.550(E) 0.62520. At the beginning of each of the past 5 years, an actuary has forecast the annual claims for agroup of insureds. The table below shows the forecasts (X) and the actual claims (Y). Atwo-variable linear regression model is used to analyze the data.t X t Y t1 475 2542 254 4633 463 5154 515 5675 567 605You are given:(i) The null hypothesis is0:0,1Hαβ==.(ii) The unrestricted model fit yields ESS = 69,843.Which of the following is true regarding the F test of the null hypothesis?(A) The null hypothesis is not rejected at the 0.05 significance level.(B) The null hypothesis is rejected at the 0.05 significance level, but not at the 0.01 level.(C) The numerator has 3 degrees of freedom.(D) The denominator has 2 degrees of freedom.(E) TheF statistic cannot be determined from the information given.21-22. Use the following information for questions 21 and 22.For a survival study with censored and truncated data, you are given:Time (t) Number at Riskat Time t Failures at Time t1 30 52 27 93 32 64 25 55 20 4 21. The probability of failing at or before Time 4, given survival past Time 1, is31q.Calculate Greenwood’s approximation of the variance of 31 q.(A) 0.0067(B) 0.0073(C) 0.0080(D) 0.0091(E) 0.010521-22. (Repeated for convenience) Use the following information for questions 21 and 22.For a survival study with censored and truncated data, you are given:Time (t) Number at Riskat Time t Failures at Time t1 30 52 27 93 32 64 25 55 20 4 22. Calculate the 95% log-transformed confidence interval for H3b g, based on the Nelson-Aalenestimate.(A) (0.30,0.89)(B) (0.31,1.54)(C) (0.39,0.99)(D) (0.44,1.07)(E) (0.56,0.79)(i) Two risks have the following severity distributions:Amount of Claim Probability of ClaimAmount for Risk 1Probability of ClaimAmount for Risk 2250 0.5 0.72,500 0.3 0.260,000 0.2 0.1(ii) Risk 1 is twice as likely to be observed as Risk 2.A claim of 250 is observed.Determine the Bühlmann credibility estimate of the second claim amount from the same risk.(A) Less than 10,200(B) At least 10,200, but less than 10,400(C) At least 10,400, but less than 10,600(D) At least 10,600, but less than 10,800(E) At least 10,800(i) A sample x x x 1210,,,… is drawn from a distribution with probability density function:1211exp()exp(), 0[]x x x θθσσ−+−<<∞(ii)θσ>(iii) x x i i ==∑∑15050002 andEstimate θ by matching the first two sample moments to the corresponding population quantities.(A) 9(B) 10(C) 15(D) 20(E) 2125. You are given the following time-series model:115.028.0−−−++=t t t t y y εεWhich of the following statements about this model is false?(A) 10.4ρ=(B) 1,2,3,4,....k k ρρ<=(C) The model is ARMA(1,1).(D) The model is stationary.(E) The mean, µ, is 2.26. You are given a sample of two values, 5 and 9.You estimate Var(X ) using the estimator g (X 1, X 2) = 21().2i X X −∑Determine the bootstrap approximation to the mean square error of g .(A) 1(B) 2(C) 4(D) 8(E) 1627. You are given:(i) The number of claims incurred in a month by any insured has a Poisson distributionwith mean λ.(ii) The claim frequencies of different insureds are independent.(iii) The prior distribution is gamma with probability density function:()()6100100120efλλλλ−=(iv) Month Number of Insureds NumberofClaims1 100 62 150 83 200 114 300 ?Determine the Bühlmann-Straub credibility estimate of the number of claims in Month 4.(A) 16.7(B) 16.9(C) 17.3(D) 17.6(E) 18.028. You fit a Pareto distribution to a sample of 200 claim amounts and use the likelihood ratio testto test the hypothesis that 1.5α= and 7.8θ=.You are given:(i) The maximum likelihood estimates are α= 1.4 and θ = 7.6.(ii) The natural logarithm of the likelihood function evaluated at the maximum likelihoodestimates is −817.92.(iii) ()ln 7.8607.64i x +=∑Determine the result of the test.(A) Reject at the 0.005 significance level.(B) Reject at the 0.010 significance level, but not at the 0.005 level.(C) Reject at the 0.025 significance level, but not at the 0.010 level.(D) Reject at the 0.050 significance level, but not at the 0.025 level.(E) Do not reject at the 0.050 significance level.29. You are given:(i) The model is Y X i i i =+βε, i = 1, 2, 3.(ii)i X i Var εi b g11 12 2 93 316 (iii)The ordinary least squares residuals are εβi i i Y X =−, i = 1, 2, 3.Determine E X X X ,,ε12123d i.(A) 1.0(B) 1.8(C) 2.7(D) 3.7(E) 7.630. For a sample of 15 losses, you are given:(i)Interval Observed Number ofLosses(0, 2] 5(2, 5] 5(5, ∞) 5 (ii) Losses follow the uniform distribution on 0,θb g.Estimate θ by minimizing the function()231j jjjE OO=−∑, where j E is the expected number oflosses in the j th interval andjO is the observed number of losses in the j th interval.(A) 6.0(B) 6.4(C) 6.8(D) 7.2(E) 7.631. You are given:(i) The probability that an insured will have exactly one claim is θ.(ii) The prior distribution of θ has probability density function:πθθθb g=<<3201,A randomly chosen insured is observed to have exactly one claim.Determine the posterior probability that θ is greater than 0.60.(A) 0.54(B) 0.58(C) 0.63(D) 0.67(E) 0.7232. The distribution of accidents for 84 randomly selected policies is as follows:Number of Accidents Number of Policies0 321 262 123 74 45 26 1Total 84 Which of the following models best represents these data?binomial(A) Negativeuniform(B) Discrete(C) Poisson(D) Binomial(E) Either Poisson or Binomial33. A time series yt follows an ARIMA(1,1,1) model with φ107=., θ103=−. and σε210=..Determine the variance of the forecast error two steps ahead.(A) 1(B)5(C) 8(D)10(E) 12(i) Low-hazard risks have an exponential claim size distribution with mean θ. (ii) Medium-hazard risks have an exponential claim size distribution with mean 2θ. (iii) High-hazard risks have an exponential claim size distribution with mean 3θ. (iv) No claims from low-hazard risks are observed.(v) Three claims from medium-hazard risks are observed, of sizes 1, 2 and 3. (vi) One claim from a high-hazard risk is observed, of size 15.Determine the maximum likelihood estimate of θ.(A) 1(B) 2(C) 3(D) 4(E) 5(i)partial X =pure premium calculated from partially credible data(ii)partial E X µ⎡⎤=⎣⎦ (iii) Fluctuations are limited to ±k µ of the mean with probability P(iv) Z = credibility factorWhich of the following is equal to P ?(A) partial Pr k X k µµµµ⎡⎤−≤≤+⎣⎦(B) partial Pr +Z k Z X Z k µµ⎡⎤−≤≤⎣⎦(C) partial Pr +Z Z X Z µµµµ⎡⎤−≤≤⎣⎦(D) ()partial Pr 111k Z X Z k µ⎡⎤−≤+−≤+⎣⎦(E) ()partial Pr 1k Z X Z k µµµµµ⎡⎤−≤+−≤+⎣⎦36. For the model 1223344i i i i i Y X X X ββββε=++++, you are given:(i) N = 15(ii)(iii) ESS =28282.Calculate the standard error of 32ˆˆββ−.(A) 6.4(B) 6.8(C) 7.1(D) 7.5(E) 7.837. You are given:Assume a uniform distribution of claim sizes within each interval.Estimate E X X 2150c h g −∧.(A)Less than 200(B)At least 200, but less than 300(C)At least 300, but less than 400(D)At least 400, but less than 500(E)At least 50038. Which of the following statements about moving average models is false?(A) Both unweighted and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) models canbe used to forecast future values of a time series.(B) Forecasts using unweighted moving average models are determined by applying equalweights to a specified number of past observations of the time series.(C) Forecasts using EWMA models may not be true averages because the weights appliedto the past observations do not necessarily sum to one.(D) Forecasts using both unweighted and EWMA models are adaptive because theyautomatically adjust themselves to the most recently available data.(E) Using an EWMA model, the two-period forecast is the same as the one-periodforecast.39. You are given:(i) Each risk has at most one claim each year.(ii)Type of Risk Prior Probability Annual Claim ProbabilityI 0.7 0.1II 0.2 0.2III 0.1 0.4 One randomly chosen risk has three claims during Years 1-6.Determine the posterior probability of a claim for this risk in Year 7.(A) 0.22(B) 0.28(C) 0.33(D) 0.40(E) 0.4640. You are given the following about 100 insurance policies in a study of time to policysurrender:(i) The study was designed in such a way that for every policy that was surrendered, ar, is always equal to 100.new policy was added, meaning that the risk set,j(ii) Policies are surrendered only at the end of a policy year.(iii) The number of policies surrendered at the end of each policy year was observed to be:1 at the end of the 1st policy year2 at the end of the 2nd policy year3 at the end of the 3rd policy yearn at the end of the n th policy year(iv) The Nelson-Aalen empirical estimate of the cumulative distribution function at time n, F, is 0.542.)(ˆnWhat is the value of n?(A) 8(B) 9(C) 10(D) 11(E) 12**END OF EXAMINATION**Course 4, Fall 2003PRELIMINARY ANSWER KEYQuestion # Answer Question # Answer 1 A21 A 2 E22 D 3 E23 D 4 B24 D 5 D25 E 6 A26 D 7 C27 B 8 D28 C 9 E29 B 10 D30 E 11 C31 E 12 A32 A 13 E33 B 14 D34 B 15 C35 E 16 B36 C 17 C37 C 18 B38 C 19 A39 B 20 A40 E。

sEparaTe包的说明文档:最大似然估计和似然比检验函数说明书

sEparaTe包的说明文档:最大似然估计和似然比检验函数说明书

Package‘sEparaTe’August18,2023Title Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Likelihood Ratio TestFunctions for Separable Variance-Covariance StructuresVersion0.3.2Maintainer Timothy Schwinghamer<***************************.CA>Description Maximum likelihood estimation of the parametersof matrix and3rd-order tensor normal distributions with unstructuredfactor variance covariance matrices,two procedures,and for unbiasedmodified likelihood ratio testing of simple and double separabilityfor variance-covariance structures,two procedures.References:Dutilleul P.(1999)<doi:10.1080/00949659908811970>,Manceur AM,Dutilleul P.(2013)<doi:10.1016/j.cam.2012.09.017>,and Manceur AM,DutilleulP.(2013)<doi:10.1016/j.spl.2012.10.020>.Depends R(>=4.3.0)License MIT+file LICENSEEncoding UTF-8LazyData trueRoxygenNote7.2.0NeedsCompilation noAuthor Ameur Manceur[aut],Timothy Schwinghamer[aut,cre],Pierre Dutilleul[aut,cph]Repository CRANDate/Publication2023-08-1807:50:02UTCR topics documented:data2d (2)data3d (2)lrt2d_svc (3)lrt3d_svc (5)mle2d_svc (7)12data3d mle3d_svc (8)sEparaTe (10)Index11 data2d Two dimensional data setDescriptionAn i.i.d.random sample of size7from a2x3matrix normal distribution,for a small numerical example of the use of the functions mle2d_svc and lrt2d_svc from the sEparaTe packageUsagedata2dFormatA frame(excluding the headings)with42lines of data and4variables:K an integer ranging from1to7,the size of an i.i.d.random sample from a2x3matrix normal distributionId1an integer ranging from1to2,the number of rows of the matrix normal distributionId2an integer ranging from1to3,the number of columns of the matrix normal distribution value2d the sample data for the observed variabledata3d Three dimensional data setDescriptionAn i.i.d.random sample of size13from a2x3x2tensor normal distribution,for a small numerical example of the use of the functions mle3d_svc and lrt3d_svc from the sEparaTe packageUsagedata3dFormatA frame(excluding the headings)with156lines of data and5variables:K an integer ranging from1to13,the size of an i.i.d.random sample from a2x3x2tensor matrix normal distributionId3an integer ranging from1to2,the number of rows of the3rd-order tensor normal distribution Id4an integer ranging from1to3,the number of columns of the3rd-order tensor normal distribu-tionId5an integer ranging from1to2,the number of edges of the3rd-order tensor normal distribution value3d the sample data for the observed variablelrt2d_svc Unbiased modified likelihood ratio test for simple separability of avariance-covariance matrix.DescriptionA likelihood ratio test(LRT)for simple separability of a variance-covariance matrix,modified tobe unbiased infinite samples.The modification is a penalty-based homothetic transformation of the LRT statistic.The penalty value is optimized for a given mean model,which is left unstruc-tured here.In the required function,the Id1and Id2variables correspond to the row and column subscripts,respectively;“value2d”refers to the observed variable.Usagelrt2d_svc(value2d,Id1,Id2,subject,data_2d,eps,maxiter,startmat,sign.level,n.simul)Argumentsvalue2d from the formula value2d~Id1+Id2Id1from the formula value2d~Id1+Id2Id2from the formula value2d~Id1+Id2subject the replicate,also called the subject or individual,thefirst column in the matrix (2d)datafiledata_2d the name of the matrix dataeps the threshold in the stopping criterion for the iterative mle algorithm(estimation) maxiter the maximum number of iterations for the mle algorithm(estimation)startmat the value of the second factor variance-covariance matrix used for initialization,i.e.,to start the mle algorithm(estimation)and obtain the initial estimate of thefirst factor variance-covariance matrixsign.level the significance level,or rejection rate in the testing of the null hypothesis of simple separability for a variance-covariance structure,when the unbiased mod-ified LRT is used,i.e.,the critical value in the chi-square test is derived bysimulations from the sampling distribution of the LRT statistic n.simul the number of simulations used to build the sampling distribution of the LRT statistic under the null hypothesis,using the same characteristics as the i.i.d.random sample from a matrix normal distributionOutput“Convergence”,TRUE or FALSE“chi.df”,the theoretical number of degrees of freedom of the asymptotic chi-square distribution that would apply to the unmodified LRT statistic for simple separability of a variance-covariance structure“Lambda”,the observed value of the unmodified LRT statistic“critical.value”,the critical value at the specified significance level for the chi-square distribution with“chi.df”degrees of freedom“mbda”will indicate whether or not the null hypothesis of separability was rejected, based on the theoretical LRT statistic“Simulation.critical.value”,the critical value at the specified significance level that is derived from the sampling distribution of the unbiased modified LRT statistic“mbda.simulation”,the decision(acceptance/rejection)regarding the null hypothesis of simple separability,made using the theoretical(biased unmodified)LRT“Penalty”,the optimized penalty value used in the homothetic transformation between the biased unmodified and unbiased modified LRT statistics“U1hat”,the estimated variance-covariance matrix for the rows“Standardized_U1hat”,the standardized estimated variance-covariance matrix for the rows;the standardization is performed by dividing each entry of U1hat by entry(1,1)of U1hat“U2hat”,the estimated variance-covariance matrix for the columns“Standardized_U2hat”,the standardized estimated variance-covariance matrix for the columns;the standardization is performed by multiplying each entry of U2hat by entry(1,1)of U1hat“Shat”,the sample variance-covariance matrix computed from the vectorized data matrices ReferencesManceur AM,Dutilleul P.2013.Unbiased modified likelihood ratio tests for simple and double separability of a variance-covariance structure.Statistics and Probability Letters83:631-636.Examplesoutput<-lrt2d_svc(data2d$value2d,data2d$Id1,data2d$Id2,data2d$K,data_2d=data2d,n.simul=100)outputlrt3d_svc An unbiased modified likelihood ratio test for double separability of avariance-covariance structure.DescriptionA likelihood ratio test(LRT)for double separability of a variance-covariance structure,modified tobe unbiased infinite samples.The modification is a penalty-based homothetic transformation of the LRT statistic.The penalty value is optimized for a given mean model,which is left unstructured here.In the required function,the Id3,Id4and Id5variables correspond to the row,column and edge subscripts,respectively;“value3d”refers to the observed variable.Usagelrt3d_svc(value3d,Id3,Id4,Id5,subject,data_3d,eps,maxiter,startmatU2,startmatU3,sign.level,n.simul)Argumentsvalue3d from the formula value3d~Id3+Id4+Id5Id3from the formula value3d~Id3+Id4+Id5Id4from the formula value3d~Id3+Id4+Id5Id5from the formula value3d~Id3+Id4+Id5subject the replicate,also called individualdata_3d the name of the tensor dataeps the threshold in the stopping criterion for the iterative mle algorithm(estimation) maxiter the maximum number of iterations for the mle algorithm(estimation)startmatU2the value of the second factor variance-covariance matrix used for initialization startmatU3the value of the third factor variance-covariance matrix used for initialization,i.e.,startmatU3together with startmatU2are used to start the mle algorithm(estimation)and obtain the initial estimate of thefirst factor variance-covariancematrix U1sign.level the significance level,or rejection rate in the testing of the null hypothesis of simple separability for a variance-covariance structure,when the unbiased mod-ified LRT is used,i.e.,the critical value in the chi-square test is derived bysimulations from the sampling distribution of the LRT statistic n.simul the number of simulations used to build the sampling distribution of the LRT statistic under the null hypothesis,using the same characteristics as the i.i.d.random sample from a tensor normal distributionOutput“Convergence”,TRUE or FALSE“chi.df”,the theoretical number of degrees of freedom of the asymptotic chi-square distribution that would apply to the unmodified LRT statistic for double separability of a variance-covariance structure“Lambda”,the observed value of the unmodified LRT statistic“critical.value”,the critical value at the specified significance level for the chi-square distribution with“chi.df”degrees of freedom“mbda”,the decision(acceptance/rejection)regarding the null hypothesis of double sep-arability,made using the theoretical(biased unmodified)LRT“Simulation.critical.value”,the critical value at the specified significance level that is derived from the sampling distribution of the unbiased modified LRT statistic“mbda.simulation”,the decision(acceptance/rejection)regarding the null hypothesis of double separability,made using the unbiased modified LRT“Penalty”,the optimized penalty value used in the homothetic transformation between the biased unmodified and unbiased modified LRT statistics“U1hat”,the estimated variance-covariance matrix for the rows“Standardized_U1hat”,the standardized estimated variance-covariance matrix for the rows;the standardization is performed by dividing each entry of U1hat by entry(1,1)of U1hat“U2hat”,the estimated variance-covariance matrix for the columns“Standardized_U2hat”,the standardized estimated variance-covariance matrix for the columns;the standardization is performed by multiplying each entry of U2hat by entry(1,1)of U1hat“U3hat”,the estimated variance-covariance matrix for the edges“Shat”,the sample variance-covariance matrix computed from the vectorized data tensorsReferencesManceur AM,Dutilleul P.2013.Unbiased modified likelihood ratio tests for simple and double separability of a variance-covariance structure.Statistics and Probability Letters83:631-636.Examplesoutput<-lrt3d_svc(data3d$value3d,data3d$Id3,data3d$Id4,data3d$Id5,data3d$K,data_3d=data3d,n.simul=100)outputmle2d_svc Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of a matrix normaldistributionDescriptionMaximum likelihood estimation for the parameters of a matrix normal distribution X,which is char-acterized by a simply separable variance-covariance structure.In the general case,which is the case considered here,two unstructured factor variance-covariance matrices determine the covariability of random matrix entries,depending on the row(one factor matrix)and the column(the other factor matrix)where two X-entries are.In the required function,the Id1and Id2variables correspond to the row and column subscripts,respectively;“value2d”indicates the observed variable.Usagemle2d_svc(value2d,Id1,Id2,subject,data_2d,eps,maxiter,startmat)Argumentsvalue2d from the formula value2d~Id1+Id2Id1from the formula value2d~Id1+Id2Id2from the formula value2d~Id1+Id2subject the replicate,also called individualdata_2d the name of the matrix dataeps the threshold in the stopping criterion for the iterative mle algorithmmaxiter the maximum number of iterations for the iterative mle algorithmstartmat the value of the second factor variance-covariance matrix used for initializa-tion,i.e.,to start the algorithm and obtain the initial estimate of thefirst factorvariance-covariance matrixOutput“Convergence”,TRUE or FALSE“Iter”,will indicate the number of iterations needed for the mle algorithm to converge“Xmeanhat”,the estimated mean matrix(i.e.,the sample mean)“First”,the row subscript,or the second column in the datafile“U1hat”,the estimated variance-covariance matrix for the rows“Standardized.U1hat”,the standardized estimated variance-covariance matrix for the rows;the stan-dardization is performed by dividing each entry of U1hat by entry(1,1)of U1hat“Second”,the column subscript,or the third column in the datafile“U2hat”,the estimated variance-covariance matrix for the columns“Standardized.U2hat”,the standardized estimated variance-covariance matrix for the columns;the standardization is performed by multiplying each entry of U2hat by entry(1,1)of U1hat“Shat”,is the sample variance-covariance matrix computed from of the vectorized data matrices ReferencesDutilleul P.1990.Apport en analyse spectrale d’un periodogramme modifie et modelisation des series chronologiques avec repetitions en vue de leur comparaison en frequence.D.Sc.Dissertation, Universite catholique de Louvain,Departement de mathematique.Dutilleul P.1999.The mle algorithm for the matrix normal distribution.Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation64:105-123.Examplesoutput<-mle2d_svc(data2d$value2d,data2d$Id1,data2d$Id2,data2d$K,data_2d=data2d) outputmle3d_svc Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of a3rd-order ten-sor normal distributionDescriptionMaximum likelihood estimation for the parameters of a3rd-order tensor normal distribution X, which is characterized by a doubly separable variance-covariance structure.In the general case, which is the case considered here,three unstructured factor variance-covariance matrices determine the covariability of random tensor entries,depending on the row(one factor matrix),the column (another factor matrix)and the edge(remaining factor matrix)where two X-entries are.In the required function,the Id3,Id4and Id5variables correspond to the row,column and edge subscripts, respectively;“value3d”indicates the observed variable.Usagemle3d_svc(value3d,Id3,Id4,Id5,subject,data_3d,eps,maxiter,startmatU2,startmatU3)Argumentsvalue3d from the formula value3d~Id3+Id4+Id5Id3from the formula value3d~Id3+Id4+Id5Id4from the formula value3d~Id3+Id4+Id5Id5from the formula value3d~Id3+Id4+Id5subject the replicate,also called individualdata_3d the name of the tensor dataeps the threshold in the stopping criterion for the iterative mle algorithmmaxiter the maximum number of iterations for the iterative mle algorithmstartmatU2the value of the second factor variance covariance matrix used for initialization startmatU3the value of the third factor variance covariance matrix used for initialization,i.e.,startmatU3together with startmatU2are used to start the algorithm andobtain the initial estimate of thefirst factor variance covariance matrix U1Output“Convergence”,TRUE or FALSE“Iter”,the number of iterations needed for the mle algorithm to converge“Xmeanhat”,the estimated mean tensor(i.e.,the sample mean)“First”,the row subscript,or the second column in the datafile“U1hat”,the estimated variance-covariance matrix for the rows“Standardized.U1hat”,the standardized estimated variance-covariance matrix for the rows;the stan-dardization is performed by dividing each entry of U1hat by entry(1,1)of U1hat“Second”,the column subscript,or the third column in the datafile“U2hat”,the estimated variance-covariance matrix for the columns“Standardized.U2hat”,the standardized estimated variance-covariance matrix for the columns;the standardization is performed by multiplying each entry of U2hat by entry(1,1)of U1hat“Third”,the edge subscript,or the fourth column in the datafile“U3hat”,the estimated variance-covariance matrix for the edges“Shat”,the sample variance-covariance matrix computed from the vectorized data tensorsReferenceManceur AM,Dutilleul P.2013.Maximum likelihood estimation for the tensor normal distribution: Algorithm,minimum sample size,and empirical bias and dispersion.Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics239:37-49.10sEparaTeExamplesoutput<-mle3d_svc(data3d$value3d,data3d$Id3,data3d$Id4,data3d$Id5,data3d$K,data_3d=data3d) outputsEparaTe MLE and LRT functions for separable variance-covariance structuresDescriptionA package for maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)of the parameters of matrix and3rd-ordertensor normal distributions with unstructured factor variance-covariance matrices(two procedures),and for unbiased modified likelihood ratio testing(LRT)of simple and double separability forvariance-covariance structures(two procedures).Functionsmle2d_svc,for maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of a matrix normal distributionmle3d_svc,for maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of a3rd-order tensor normaldistributionlrt2d_svc,for the unbiased modified likelihood ratio test of simple separability for a variance-covariance structurelrt3d_svc,for the unbiased modified likelihood ratio test of double separability for a variance-covariance structureDatadata2d,a two-dimensional data setdata3d,a three-dimensional data setReferencesDutilleul P.1999.The mle algorithm for the matrix normal distribution.Journal of StatisticalComputation and Simulation64:105-123.Manceur AM,Dutilleul P.2013.Maximum likelihood estimation for the tensor normal distribution:Algorithm,minimum sample size,and empirical bias and dispersion.Journal of Computational andApplied Mathematics239:37-49.Manceur AM,Dutilleul P.2013.Unbiased modified likelihood ratio tests for simple and doubleseparability of a variance covariance structure.Statistics and Probability Letters83:631-636.Index∗datasetsdata2d,2data3d,2data2d,2data3d,2lrt2d_svc,3lrt3d_svc,5mle2d_svc,7mle3d_svc,8sEparaTe,1011。

Akaike 谈论AIC信息准则

Akaike 谈论AIC信息准则

Hirotugu Akaike Institute of Statistical Mathematics 4-6-7 Minami-Azabu, Minato-ku Tokyo 106 Japan October 7, 1981
“In 1968, I was developing a statistical identification procedure for a cement rotary kiln under normal noisy operating conditions by using a multi-variate autoregressive time series model. It quickly became clear that the main problem was the decision on the order, the number of past observations used to predict the behavior of the kiln. A solution was obtained by the introduction of the concept of final prediction error (FPE), the expected mean squared error of prediction by a model with the parameters determined by a statistical method.1 The order selection was realized so as to minimize an estimate of FPE. “In 1970, I received an invitation to the Second International Symposium on

稳健最大似然(mlr)估计方法

稳健最大似然(mlr)估计方法

稳健最大似然(mlr)估计方法The robust maximum likelihood estimation method (mlr) is a statistical technique used to estimate the parameters of a model while accounting for outliers or extreme values in the data. This method is particularly useful in situations where traditional maximum likelihood estimation may be prone to bias or inefficiency due to the presence of outliers. By incorporating robust estimators, such as the Huber or Tukey biweight functions, mlr helps to reduce the impact of outliers on parameter estimates, resulting in more reliable and accurate model fitting.稳健最大似然估计方法(mlr)是一种统计技术,用于在考虑数据中的异常值或极端值的情况下估计模型的参数。

这种方法特别适用于传统最大似然估计可能因为异常值存在而产生偏差或低效的情况。

通过结合稳健估计器,如Huber或Tukey双加权函数,mlr有助于减少异常值对参数估计的影响,从而实现更可靠和准确的模型拟合。

One of the key advantages of the robust maximum likelihood estimation method is its ability to provide consistent estimates even in the presence of outliers. Traditional maximum likelihoodestimation methods are sensitive to outliers, which can greatly impact the accuracy of parameter estimates and the overall fit of the model. By using robust estimators, mlr is able to downweight the influence of outliers while still maintaining the consistency of parameter estimates, resulting in more robust and reliable inference.稳健最大似然估计方法的关键优势之一是它能够在存在异常值的情况下提供一致的估计。

最大似然估计(Maximumlikelihoodestimation)

最大似然估计(Maximumlikelihoodestimation)

最⼤似然估计(Maximumlikelihoodestimation)最⼤似然估计提供了⼀种给定观察数据来评估模型参数的⽅法,即:“模型已定,参数未知”。

简单⽽⾔,假设我们要统计全国⼈⼝的⾝⾼,⾸先假设这个⾝⾼服从服从正态分布,但是该分布的均值与⽅差未知。

我们没有⼈⼒与物⼒去统计全国每个⼈的⾝⾼,但是可以通过采样,获取部分⼈的⾝⾼,然后通过最⼤似然估计来获取上述假设中的正态分布的均值与⽅差。

最⼤似然估计中采样需满⾜⼀个很重要的假设,就是所有的采样都是独⽴同分布的。

下⾯我们具体描述⼀下最⼤似然估计:⾸先,假设为独⽴同分布的采样,θ为模型参数,f为我们所使⽤的模型,遵循我们上述的独⽴同分布假设。

参数为θ的模型f产⽣上述采样可表⽰为回到上⾯的“模型已定,参数未知”的说法,此时,我们已知的为,未知为θ,故似然定义为: 在实际应⽤中常⽤的是两边取对数,得到公式如下: 其中称为对数似然,⽽称为平均对数似然。

⽽我们平时所称的最⼤似然为最⼤的对数平均似然,即:举个别⼈博客中的例⼦,假如有⼀个罐⼦,⾥⾯有⿊⽩两种颜⾊的球,数⽬多少不知,两种颜⾊的⽐例也不知。

我们想知道罐中⽩球和⿊球的⽐例,但我们不能把罐中的球全部拿出来数。

现在我们可以每次任意从已经摇匀的罐中拿⼀个球出来,记录球的颜⾊,然后把拿出来的球再放回罐中。

这个过程可以重复,我们可以⽤记录的球的颜⾊来估计罐中⿊⽩球的⽐例。

假如在前⾯的⼀百次重复记录中,有七⼗次是⽩球,请问罐中⽩球所占的⽐例最有可能是多少?很多⼈马上就有答案了:70%。

⽽其后的理论⽀撑是什么呢?我们假设罐中⽩球的⽐例是p,那么⿊球的⽐例就是1-p。

因为每抽⼀个球出来,在记录颜⾊之后,我们把抽出的球放回了罐中并摇匀,所以每次抽出来的球的颜⾊服从同⼀独⽴分布。

这⾥我们把⼀次抽出来球的颜⾊称为⼀次抽样。

题⽬中在⼀百次抽样中,七⼗次是⽩球的概率是P(Data | M),这⾥Data是所有的数据,M是所给出的模型,表⽰每次抽出来的球是⽩⾊的概率为p。

简述极大似然估计法的原理

简述极大似然估计法的原理

简述极大似然估计法的原理The principle of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a widely used method in statistics and machine learning for estimating the parameters of a statistical model. In essence, MLE attempts to find the values of the parameters that maximize the likelihood of observing the data given a specific model. In other words, MLE seeks the most plausible values of the parameters that make the observed data the most likely.极大似然估计法的原理是统计学和机器学习中广泛使用的一种方法,用于估计统计模型的参数。

在本质上,极大似然估计试图找到最大化观察到的数据在特定模型下的可能性的参数值。

换句话说,极大似然估计寻求最合理的参数值,使观察到的数据最有可能。

To illustrate the concept of maximum likelihood estimation, let's consider a simple example of flipping a coin. Suppose we have a fair coin, and we want to estimate the probability of obtaining heads. We can model this situation using a Bernoulli distribution, where the parameter of interest is the probability of success (, getting heads). By observing multiple coin flips, we can calculate the likelihood ofthe observed outcomes under different values of the parameter and choose the value that maximizes this likelihood.为了说明极大似然估计的概念,让我们考虑一个简单的抛硬币的例子。

Unconditional maximum likelihood estimation of linear and dynamic models for spatial panels

Unconditional maximum likelihood estimation of linear and dynamic models for spatial panels

Geographical Analysis ISSN0016-7363 Unconditional Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Linear and Log-LinearDynamic Models for Spatial PanelsJ.Paul ElhorstFaculty of Economics,University of Groningen,Groningen,The NetherlandsThis article hammers out the estimation of afixed effects dynamic panel data model extended to include either spatial error autocorrelation or a spatially lagged dependent variable.To overcome the inconsistencies associated with the traditional least-squares dummy estimator,the models arefirst-differenced to eliminate thefixed effects and then the unconditional likelihood function is derived taking into account the density function of thefirst-differenced observations on each spatial unit.When exogenous variables are omitted,the exact likelihood function is found to exist.When exogenous variables are included,the pre-sample values of these variables and thus the likelihood function must be approximated.Two leading cases are considered:the Bhargava and Sargan approximation and the Nerlove and Balestra approximation.As an application,a dynamic demand model for cigarettes is estimated based on panel data from46U.S.states over the period from1963to1992.IntroductionIn recent years,there has been a growing interest in the estimation of econometric relationships based on panel data.In this article,we focus on dynamic models for spatial panels,a family of models for which,according to Elhorst(2001)and Had-inger,Mu¨ller,and Tondl(2002),no straightforward estimation procedure is yet available.This is(as will be explained later)because existing methods developed for spatial but non-dynamic and for dynamic but non-spatial panel data models produce biased estimates when these methods/models are put together.A dynamic spatial panel data model takes the form of a linear regression equa-tion extended with a variable intercept,a serially lagged dependent variable and either a spatially lagged dependent variable(known as spatial lag)or a spatially autoregressive process incorporated in the error term(known as spatial Correspondence:J.Paul Elhorst,Faculty of Economics,University of Groningen,P.O.Box 800,9700AV Groningen,The Netherlandse-mail:j.p.elhorst@eco.rug.nlSubmitted:July11,2003.Revised version accepted:May18,2004.Geographical Analysis37(2005)85–106r2005The Ohio State University85Geographical Analysiserror).To avoid repetition,we apply to the spatial error specification in this article.The spatial lag specification is explained in a working paper(Elhorst 2003a).1The model is considered in vector form for a cross-section of observa-tions at time t:Y t¼t Y tÀ1þX t bþmþj t;j t¼d W j tþe t;Eðe tÞ¼0;Eðe t e0tÞ¼s2I Nð1Þwhere Y t denotes an NÂ1vector consisting of one observation for every spatial unit(i51,...,N)of the dependent variable in the t th time period(t51,...,T)and X t denotes an NÂK matrix of exogenous explanatory variables.It is assumed that the vector Y0and matrix X0of initial observations are observable.The scalar t and the KÂ1vector b are the response parameters of the model.The disturbance term consists of m5(m1,...,m N)0,j t5(j1t,...,j Nt)0,and e t5(e1t,...,e Nt)0,where e it are independently and identically distributed error terms for all i and t with zero mean and variance s2.I N is an identity matrix of size N,W represents an NÂN non-negative spatial weight matrix with zeros on the diagonal,and d represents the spatial autocorrelation coefficient.The properties of m are explained below.The reasons for considering serial and spatial dynamic effects,either directly as part of the specification or indirectly as part of the disturbance term,have been published earlier(Elhorst2001,2004).A standard space–time model,even if it is dynamic,still assumes that the spatial units are completely homogeneous,differing only in their explanatory variables.Standard space–time models include the STARMA/STARIMA(Space Time AutoRegressive[Integrated]Moving Average) model(Hepple1978;Pfeifer and Deutsch1980),spatial autoregression space–time forecasting model(Griffith1996),and the serial and spatial autoregressive distrib-uted lag model(Elhorst2001).A panel data approach would presume that spatial heterogeneity is a feature of the data and attempt to model that heterogeneity.The need to account for spatial heterogeneity is that spatial units are likely to differ in their background variables,which are usually space-specific time-invariant varia-bles that affect the dependent variable,but are difficult to measure or hard to ob-tain.Omission of these variables leads to bias in the resulting estimates.One rem-edy is to introduce a variable intercept m i representing the effect of the omitted variables that are peculiar to each spatial unit considered(Baltagi2001,chap.1). Conditional upon the specification of the variable intercept m i,the regression equa-tion can be estimated as afixed or a random effects model.In thefixed effects model,a dummy variable is introduced for each spatial unit as a measure of the variable intercept.In the random effects model,the variable intercept is treated as a random variable that is independently and identically distributed with zero mean and variance s2m.Whether the random effects model is an appropriate specification in spatial research remains controversial.When the random effects model is implemented, the units of observation should be representative of a larger population,and the number of units should potentially be able to go to infinity.There are two types of 86asymptotics that are commonly used in the context of spatial observations:(i)the ‘‘infill’’asymptotic structure,where the sampling region remains bounded as N !1.In this case,more units of information come from observations taken from between those already observed and (ii)the ‘‘increasing domain’’asymptotic structure,where the sampling region grows as N !1and the sample design is such that there is a minimum distance separating any two spatial units for all N .According to Lahiri (2003),there are also two types of sampling designs:(i)the stochastic design where the spatial units are randomly drawn and (ii)the fixed de-sign where the spatial units lie on a non-random field,possibly irregularly spaced.The spatial econometric literature mainly focuses on increasing domain asympto-tics under the fixed sample design (Cressie 1991,p.100;Griffith and Lagona 1998;Lahiri 2003).Although the number of spatial units under the fixed sample design can potentially go to infinity,it is questionable whether they are representative of a larger population.For a given set of regions,such as all counties of a state or all regions in a country,the population may be said ‘‘to be sampled exhaustively’’(Nerlove and Balestra 1996,p.4),and ‘‘the individual spatial units have charac-teristics that actually set them apart from a larger population’’(Anselin 1988,p.51).According to Beck (2001,p.272),‘‘the critical issue is that the spatial units be fixed and not sampled,and that inference be conditional on the observed units.’’In ad-dition,the traditional assumption of zero correlation between m i in the random ef-fects model and the explanatory variables is particularly restrictive.For these reasons,the random effects model is often not used.We will return to the random effects model briefly in the concluding section.The dynamic spatial panel data model was first considered by Hepple (1978).His conclusion was that empirical studies with a serially lagged dependent variable have a real problem in that ordinary least squares (OLS)is no longer consistent when relaxing the assumption that the disturbance term is homoskedastic and in-dependently distributed (e.g.,because of a variable intercept).He also pointed out that estimation would have to be by maximum likelihood (ML)and that this was worth pursuing,but did not explain how to do so.Buettner (1999)has estimated a wage curve for Germany using the non-dynamic fixed effects spatial lag model and using the non-spatial dynamic fixed effects models,but not the dynamic spatial panel data model.Spatial but non-dynamic panel data modelThe standard estimation method for the fixed effects model without a serially lagged dependent variable and without spatial error autocorrelation (t 50;d 50)is to eliminate the intercept b 1and the dummy variables m i from the regression equation.This is possible by taking each variable in the regression equation in deviation from its average over time z it Àð1=T ÞP t z it for z ¼y ;x ÀÁ;called demeaning.The slope coefficients b (the K Â1vector b without the intercept)in the resulting equation can then be estimated by OLS,known as the least-squares dummy variables (LSDV)estimator.Subsequently,the intercept b 1and the dummy variables m i may beJ.Paul Elhorst Dynamic Spatial Panels 87Geographical Analysisrecovered(Baltagi2001,pp.12–15).It should be stressed that the coefficients of these dummy variables cannot be estimated consistently,because the number of observations available for the estimation of m i is limited to T observations.How-ever,in many empirical applications this problem does not matter,because t and b are the coefficients of interest and m i are not.Fortunately,the inconsistency of m i is not transmitted to the estimator of the slope coefficients in the demeaned equation, because this estimator is not a function of the estimated m i.This implies that in-creasing domain asymptotics under thefixed sample design(N!1)do apply for the demeaned equation.Anselin(1988)shows that OLS estimation is inefficient for cross-sectional models incorporating spatial error autocorrelation(t still0,but d¼0)2and suggests overcoming this problem by using ML.This is important because the LSDV esti-mator of thefixed effects models falls back on the OLS estimator of the response coefficients in the demeaned equation.Elhorst(2003b)shows that ML estimation of the spatialfixed effects model can be carried out with standard techniques devel-oped by Anselin(1988,pp.181–82)and Anselin and Hudak(1992)after the var-iables in the regression equation have been demeaned.The asymptotic properties of the ML estimator depend on the spatial weight matrix.The critical condition is that the row and column sums,before normalizing the spatial weight matrix,should not diverge to infinity at a rate equal to or faster than the rate of the sample size N in the cross-section domain(Lee2002).3Dynamic but non-spatial panel data modelThe panel data literature has extensively discussed the dynamic but non-spatial panel data model(t¼0,but d50;see Hsiao1986,chap.4;Sevestre and Trognon 1996;Baltagi2001,chap.8).The most serious estimation problem caused by the introduction of a serially lagged dependent variable is that the OLS estimator of the response coefficients in the demeaned equation,as discussed above and in this case consisting of t and b,is inconsistent if T isfixed,regardless of the size of N. Two procedures to remove this inconsistency are being intensely discussed in the panel data literature.Thefirst procedure considers the unconditional likelihood function of the model formulated in levels(cf.Equation(1)).Regression equations that include variables lagged one period in time are often estimated conditional upon thefirst observations.When estimating these models by ML,it is also possible to obtain unconditional results by taking into account the density function of thefirst obser-vation of each time-series of observations.This so-called unconditional likelihood function has been shown to exist when applying this procedure to a standard linear regression model without exogenous explanatory variables(Hamilton1994;Johns-ton and Dinardo1997,pp.229–30),and on a random effects model without ex-ogenous explanatory variables(Ridder and Wansbeek1990;Hoogstrate1998; Hsiao,Pesaran,and Tahmiscioglu2002).Unfortunately,the unconditional likeli-hood function does not exist when applying this procedure on thefixed effects 88J.Paul Elhorst Dynamic Spatial Panels model,even without exogenous explanatory variables.The reason is that the co-efficients of thefixed effects cannot be estimated consistently,because the number of these coefficients increases as N increases.The standard solution to eliminate thesefixed effects from the regression equation by demeaning the Y and X variables also does not work,because this technique creates a correlation of order(1/T)be-tween the serial lagged dependent variable and the demeaned error terms(Nickell 1981;Hsiao1986,pp.73–76),as a result of which the common parameter t cannot be estimated consistently.Only when T tends to infinity does this inconsistency disappear.The second procedurefirst-differences the model to eliminate thefixed effects, Y tÀY tÀ1¼tðY tÀ1ÀY tÀ2ÞþðX tÀX tÀ1Þbþj tÀj tÀ1,and then applies general-ized method-of-moments(GMM)using a set of appropriate instruments.4Recently, Hoogstrate(1998)and Hsiao,Pesaran,and Tahmiscioglu(2002)have suggested a third procedure that combines the preceding two.This procedurefirst-differences the model to eliminate thefixed effects and then considers the unconditional like-lihood function of thefirst-differenced model taking into account the density func-tion of thefirst-differenced observations on each spatial unit.Hsiao,Pesaran,and Tahmiscioglu(2002)prove that this procedure yields a consistent estimator of the scalar t and the response parameters b when the cross-sectional dimension N tends to infinity,regardless of the size of T.It is also shown that the ML estimator is as-ymptotically more efficient that the GMM estimator.Estimation of a dynamic spatial panel data modelThe advantage of the last procedure is that it also opens the possibility to estimate a fixed effects dynamic panel data model extended to include spatial error autocor-relation(or a spatially lagged dependent variable),which is the objective of this article.We utilize the ML estimator;the objection to GMM from a spatial point of view is that this estimator is less accurate than ML(see Das,Kelejian,and Prucha 2003).This is because d is bounded from below and above using ML,whereas it is unbounded using GMM;the transformation of the estimation model from the error term to the dependent variable contains a Jacobian term,5which the ML approach takes into account but the GMM approach does not.In addition to spatial heterogeneity,it is the specification of the generating process of the initial observations that sets this estimation procedure apart from those used previously to standard space–time models(STARMA,STARIMA,and the spatial autoregression space–time forecasting model).As thefirst cross-section of observations conveys a great deal of information,conditioning on these observa-tions is an undesirable feature,especially when the time-series dimension of the spatial panel is short.It is not difficult to obtain the unconditional likelihood func-tion once the marginal distribution of the initial values is specified.The problem arises in obtaining a valid specification of this distribution when the model contains exogenous variables.This is because the likelihood function under this circum-stance depends on pre-sample values of the exogenous explanatory variables and89Geographical Analysisadditional assumptions have to be made to approach these values.The panel data literature has suggested different distributions leading to different optimal estima-tion procedures.We consider the Bhargava and Sargan(1983)(BS)approximation, which is also applied in Hsaio,Pesaran,and Tahmiscioglu(2002),and an approx-imation recently introduced by Nerlove and Balestra(1996)(NB)and Nerlove (1999)or Nerlove(2000).As a spatial panel has two dimensions,it is possible to consider asymptotic behavior as N!1,T!1,or both.Generally speaking,it is easier to increase the cross-section dimension of a spatial panel.If as a result N!1is believed to be the most relevant inferential basis,it follows from the above discussion that the parameter estimates of t and b derived from the unconditional likelihood function of thefixed effects dynamic panel data transformed intofirst differences and ex-tended to include spatial autocorrelation(or a spatially lagged dependent variable) are consistent.The remainder of this article consists of one technical,one empirical,and one concluding section.In the technical section,we derive the unconditional likeli-hood function of the dynamic panel data model extended to include spatial error autocorrelationfirst excluding and then including exogenous explanatory variables. In the empirical section,a dynamic demand model for cigarettes is estimated based on panel data from46U.S.states over the period from1963to1992.The con-cluding section recapitulates our majorfindings.Spatial error specificationNo exogenous explanatory variablesIn this section,exogenous explanatory variables are omitted from Equation(1). Although this model will probably seldom be used in applied work,it is still interesting because the exact log-likelihood function exists.Takingfirst differ-ences of(1),the dynamic panel data model excluding exogenous explanatory variables(b50)extended to include spatial error autocorrelation changes intoD Y t¼tD Y tÀ1þBÀ1De tð2Þwhere B¼I NÀd W.It is assumed that the characteristic roots of the spatial weight matrix W,denoted by o i(i51,...,N),are known.This assumption is needed to ensure that the log-likelihood function of the models below can be computed.Ad-ditional properties of W,which we call Griffith’s matrix properties throughout this article,are(Griffith1988,p.44,Table3.1):(i)if W is multiplied by some scalar constant,then its characteristic roots are also multiplied by this constant;(ii)if d I is added to W,where d is a real scalar,then d is added to each of the characteristic roots of W;(iii)the characteristic roots of W and its transpose are the same;(iv)the characteristic roots of W and its inverse are inverses of each other;and(v)if W is90powered by some real number,each of its characteristic roots is powered by this same real number.D Y t is well defined for t52,...,T,but not for D Y1because D Y0is not observed. To be able to specify the ML function of the complete sample D Y t(t51,...,T),the probability function of D Y1must be derivedfirst.Therefore,we repeatedly lag Equation(2)by one period.For D Y tÀmðm!1Þ,we obtainD Y tÀm¼tD Y tÀðmþ1ÞþBÀ1De tÀmð3ÞThen,by substitution of D Y tÀ1into(2),next D Y tÀ2into(2)up to D Y tÀðmÀ1Þinto(2), we obtainD Y t¼t m D Y tÀmþBÀ1De tþt BÀ1De tÀ1þÁÁÁþt mÀ1BÀ1De tÀðmÀ1Þ¼t m D Y tÀmþBÀ1½e tþðtÀ1Þe tÀ1þðtÀ1Þte tÀ2þÁÁÁþðtÀ1Þt mÀ2e tÀðmÀ1ÞÀt mÀ1e tÀmð4ÞAs E(e t)50(t51,...,T)and the successive values of e t are uncorrelated,EðD Y tÞ¼t m D Y tÀm and VarðD Y tÞ¼s2v b BÀ1B0À1ð5Þwhere the scalar v b is defined asv b¼21þtð1þt2mÀ1Þð6ÞTwo assumptions with respect to D Y1can be made(cf.Hsiao,Pesaran,and Tahmiscioglu2002):(I)The process started in the past,but not too far back from the0th period,andthe expected changes in the initial endowments are the same across all spatial units.Note that this assumption,although restrictive,does not impose the even stronger restriction that all spatial units should start from the same initial endowments.Under this assumption,EðD Y1Þ¼p01N,where1N denotes an NÂ1vector of unit elements and p0is afixed but unknown parameter to be estimated.(II)The process has started long ago(m approaches infinity)and|t|o1.Under this assumption,EðD Y1Þ¼0,while v b reduces to v b¼2=ð1þtÞ.It can be seen that thefirst assumption reduces to the second one,when p0¼0, j t j o1,and m is sufficiently large so that the term t m becomes negligible.Therefore, we consider the unconditional log-likelihood function of the complete sample un-der the more general assumption(I).Writing the residuals of the model as D e t¼D Y tÀtD Y tÀ1for t52,...,T and,using assumption(I),D e1¼D Y1Àp0I N for t51,we have VarðD e1Þ¼s2v b BÀ1B0À1,VarðD e tÞ¼2s2BÀ1B0À1(t52,...,T),CovarðD e t;D e tÀ1Þ¼Às2BÀ1B0À1 (t52,...,T),and zero otherwise.This implies that the covariance matrix of D e J.Paul Elhorst Dynamic Spatial Panels91can be written as VarðD eÞ¼s2ðG vb BÀ1B0À1Þ,by which v b is given in(6),denotes the Kronecker product,and the TÂT matrix G v j v¼vbis defined as Definition1.G vvÀ10:00À12À1:000À12:00::::::000:2À1000:À1226666666643777777775with its subelement in thefirst row andfirst column set to v.Properties of the matrix G v used below are:(i)The determinant is j G v j ¼1ÀTþTÂv;(ii)the inverse is GÀ1v¼1=ð1ÀTþTÂvÞ½ð1ÀTÞGÀ10þvðGÀ11Àð1ÀTÞGÀ10Þ ,where the inverse matrices GÀ10¼GÀ1v j v¼0and GÀ11¼GÀ1v j v¼1can easily be calculated and are characterized by a specific structure; and(iii)let p denote an NTÂ1vector,which can be partitioned into T block rows of length N.When p t denotes the t th block row(t51,...,T)of p,thenp0ðG vb I NÞÀ1p¼P Tt1¼1P Tt2¼1GÀ1vbðt1;t2Þp0t1p t2,where GÀ1vbðt1;t2Þrepresents theelement of GÀ1vb in row t1and column t2.In sum,we have6log L¼ÀNT2logð2ps2ÞþT log j B jÀN2log j G vbjÀ12s2D eÃ0ðG vbI NÞÀ1D eÃð7aÞwhereD eüBðD Y1Àp01NÞBðD Y2ÀtD Y1Þ:BðD Y TÀtD Y TÀ1Þ2666437775;EðD eÃD eÃ0Þ¼s2ðG v b I NÞð7bÞThis log-likelihood function is well-defined,satisfies the usual regularity con-ditions,and contains four unknown parameters to be estimated:p0,t,d,and s2.An appropriate value of m should be chosen in advance.s2can be solved from itsfirst-order maximizing condition,^s2¼1=NT D eÃ0ðG vb I NÞÀ1D eÃ.On substituting s2into the log-likelihood function and using Griffith’s matrix properties and the prop-erties of G v given below Definition1,the concentrated log-likelihood function of p0,t,and d is obtained asLog L C¼CÀNT2logX Tt1¼1X Tt2¼1GÀ1vbðt1;t2ÞD eÃ0t1D eÃt1 "#þTX Ni¼1logð1Àd o iÞÀN2log1ÀTþTÂ21þtð1þt2mÀ1Þð8ÞGeographical Analysis 92where C is a constant(C¼ÀNT=2ð1þlog2pÞ).As thefirst-order maximizing conditions of this function are non-linear,a numerical iterative procedure must be used tofind the maximum for p0,t,and d.Exogenous explanatory variablesIn this section,explanatory variables are added to the model.They are assumed to be strictly exogenous and to be generated by a stationary process in time.By taking first differences and continuous substitution,we can rewrite the dynamic panel data model(1)extended to include spatial error autocorrelation asD Y t¼t m D Y tÀmþBÀ1De tþt BÀ1De tÀ1þÁÁÁþt mÀ1BÀ1De tÀðmÀ1ÞþXmÀ1j¼0t j D X tÀj b¼t m D Y tÀmþD e tþXÃð9ÞAs X t is stationary,we have E D X t¼0and thus EðD Y1Þ¼t m D Y tÀm.This expecta-tion is determined under assumption(I).By contrast,VarðD Y1Þis undetermined,as XÃis not observed.This implies that the probability function of D Y1is also unde-termined.The panel data literature has suggested different assumptions about XÃleading to different optimal estimation procedures.We consider two leading cases: the BS approximation and the NB approximation.The BS approximationBhargava and Sargan(1983)suggest predicting XÃwhen t51by all the exogenous explanatory variables in the model subdivided by time over the observation period. In other words,when the model contains K1time varying and K2time invariance explanatory variables over T time periods,XÃis approached by K1ÂTþK2re-gressors.Lee(1981),Ridder and Wansbeek(1990),and Blundell and Smith(1991) use a similar approach.Hsiao,Pesaran,and Tahmiscioglu(2002)apply this ap-proximation on thefixed effects model formulated infirst differences.One of their main conclusions is that there is much to recommend the ML estimator based on this approximation.The results of a Monte Carlo simulation study strongly favor the ML estimator over other estimators(instrumental variables[IV],GMM)and the ML estimator appears to have excellentfinite sample properties even when both N and T are quite small.The predictor of XÃunder assumption(I)is p01NþD X1p1þÁÁÁþD X T p Tþx, where x$Nð0;s2x I NÞ,p0is a scalar,and p t(t51,...,T)are KÂ1vectors of para-meters.When the k th variable of X is time invariant,the restriction p1k¼ÁÁÁ¼p Tk should be imposed.In addition to this,the condition N41þKÂT should hold; otherwise,the number of parameters used to predict XÃmust be reduced.We thus haveD Y1¼p01NþD X1p1þÁÁÁþD X T p TþD e1where D e1¼xþBÀ1XmÀ1j¼0t j De1Àjð10aÞJ.Paul Elhorst Dynamic Spatial Panels93EðD e1Þ¼0;EðD e1D e02Þ¼Às2BÀ1B0À1;EðD e1D e0tÞ¼0ðt¼3;...;TÞð10bÞEðD e1D e01Þ¼s2x I Nþs2v b BÀ1B0À1 s2BÀ1ðy2BB0þv b I NÞB0À1ð10cÞInstead of estimating s2x and s2,it is easier to estimate y2(y2¼s2x=s2)and s2, which is allowed as there exists a one-to-one correspondence between s2x and y2.Let V BS¼y2BB0þv b I N¼y2BB0þ21þt ð1þt2mÀ1ÞI N;then,the covariance ma-trix of D e can be written as VarðD eÞ¼s2½ðI T BÀ1ÞH VBS ðI T B0À1Þ ,by which theNTÂNT matrix H V j V¼VBSis defined as Definition2.H VVÀI N0:00ÀI N2ÂI NÀI N:000ÀI N2ÂI N:00::::::000:2ÂI NÀI N000:ÀI N2ÂI N 26666666643777777775with its submatrix in thefirst block row andfirst block column set to the NÂN matrix V.Properties of the matrix H v used below are:(i)The determinant is j H V j¼j I NÀTÂI NþTÂV j;(ii)The inverse is HÀ1V¼ð1ÀTÞðGÀ10 DÀ1ÞþððGÀ11Àð1ÀTÞGÀ10Þ ðDÀ1VÞ;where D¼I NÀTÂI NþTÂV;and(iii)HÀ1V can be partitioned into T block rows and T block columns,by which the subma-trix HÀ1Vðt1;t2Þ(t1,t251,...,T)equals HÀ1Vðt1;t2Þ¼ð1ÀTÞGÀ10ðt1;t2ÞÂDÀ1þðGÀ11ðt1;t2ÞÀð1ÀTÞGÀ10ðt1;t2ÞÂðDÀ1VÞ:The last equation is used to obtain the matrix HÀ1V computationally.Using Griffith’s matrix properties and the properties of H V given below Def-inition2,the log-likelihood function is obtained aslog L¼ÀNT2logð2ps2ÞþTX Ni¼1logð1Àdo iÞÀ12X Ni¼1log1ÀTþTÂ21þtð1þt2mÀ1ÞþT y2ð1Àd o iÞ2À12sD eÃ0HÀ1VBSD eÃð11aÞwhere D eüBðD Y1Àp01NÀD X1p1ÀÁÁÁÀD X T p TÞBðD Y2ÀtD Y1ÀD X2bÞ:BðD Y TÀtD Y TÀ1ÀD X T bÞ2666437775;EðD eÃD eÃ0Þ¼s2H VBS ð11bÞGeographical Analysis 94。

Corresponding address

Corresponding address

Remark
The question of knowing whether it is necessary to rst identify the parameters of the model before attempting the deconvolution is an important and yet controversial methodological issue. 2
Simulation-Based Methods for Blind Maximum-Likelihood Filter Identi cation
Olivier Cappe , Arnaud Doucet y, Marc Lavielle z and Eric Moulines ENST Departement Signal / CNRS URA 820 46 rue Barrault, 75634 Paris cedex 13, France
Corresponding address : Olivier Cappe ENST Departement Signal / CNRS URA 820 46 rue Barrault, 75634 Paris cedex 13 FRANCE email: cappe@sig.enst.fr tel: + 33 1 45 81 71 11 fax: +33 1 45 88 79 35
ad2@
y
z
UFR de Mathematiques et Informatique, Universite Paris V 45 rue des Saints-Peres, 75006 Paris, France
lavielle@math-info.univ-paris5.fr

Receiving apparatus, transmittingreceiving appara

Receiving apparatus, transmittingreceiving appara

专利名称:Receiving apparatus, transmitting/receiving apparatus, and communicating method发明人:KAZUYUKI SAKODA,MITSUHIRO SUZUKI申请号:AU7314898申请日:19980623公开号:AU737719B2公开日:20010830专利内容由知识产权出版社提供摘要:A receiving apparatus is disclosed, which is capable of applying maximum likelihood sequence estimation precisely, with a simple configuration. The characteristics of the transmission line of each symbol group are estimated on the basis of the amplitude and the phases of the pilot symbols which have been extracted from the reception symbol group, and the information symbol group is restored from the reception symbol group on the basis of the result of the estimation, and the coded bit group which has been restored from the information symbol group is multiplied by the weighting factor and caused to reflect the reliability of the transmission line of each symbol group, and maximum likelihood sequence estimation is applied to the coded bit group which is reflecting the reliability, and thereby the information bit sequence is restored; as a result, by the use of simple configuration, influences given at the transmission line can be eliminated and so the information symbol group can be restored exactly, besides, the reliability of the transmission line of each symbol group can be reflected on the coded bit group, in this way, maximum likelihood sequence estimation can be applied more precisely.申请人:SONY CORPORATION更多信息请下载全文后查看。

stata中liml代码 -回复

stata中liml代码 -回复

stata中liml代码-回复Stata中的Limited Information Maximum Likelihood (LIML) 是一种用于估计线性回归模型的估计方法。

LIML方法常用于存在内生性问题的经济学模型,其中解释变量与误差项之间存在相关性。

本文将一步一步回答有关Stata中LIML方法的问题,包括LIML的理论基础、使用LIML估计模型的步骤以及解释结果。

一、LIML方法的理论基础:在经济学和金融学研究中,常常需要解决内生性问题。

内生性问题指的是解释变量与误差项之间存在相关性,这可能会导致OLS估计结果的不一致性。

LIML方法是通过使用仪器变量(Instrumental Variables, IV)来解决内生性问题的一种方法。

LIML方法以误差项与预测误差的相关性为基础。

它通过选择有效的仪器变量,对误差项进行细致建模,以提高模型的估计效果。

LIML方法的思想是在OLS估计的基础上,对误差项进行调整,使其在OLS估计下满足指定的假设。

二、使用LIML估计模型的步骤:1. 定义内生性问题:首先,需要确定模型中存在的内生性问题,即解释变量与误差项之间的相关性。

这可以通过经济理论推断、观察数据的模式或进行相关性分析等方法得到。

2. 选择仪器变量:仪器变量是用来代表内生解释变量相关性的一组变量。

它们应该满足两个重要条件:首先,与内生解释变量相关;其次,与误差项不相关。

通常,仪器变量可以通过经济理论、实证研究或专家意见等方法得到。

3. 运行LIML估计:在Stata中,可以使用ivregress liml命令来运行LIML 估计。

语法如下:ivregress liml dependent_var endogenous_var (exogenous_vars = instruments)其中,dependent_var是因变量,endogenous_var是内生解释变量,exogenous_vars是外生解释变量,instruments是仪器变量。

模型参数辨识方法

模型参数辨识方法

模型参数辨识方法1.最小二乘法(Least Squares Method)最小二乘法是一种常用的参数辨识方法,它通过最小化观测数据与模型预测值之间的平方误差来确定模型的参数值。

最小二乘法可以用于线性和非线性模型。

对于线性模型,最小二乘法可以直接求解闭式解;对于非线性模型,可以使用数值优化算法进行迭代计算。

2.极大似然估计(Maximum Likelihood Estimation)极大似然估计是一种常用的统计推断方法,也可以用于模型参数辨识。

该方法假设观测数据满足一些统计分布,通过最大化观测数据出现的概率来估计参数值。

具体方法是构造似然函数,即给定观测数据下的参数条件下的概率密度函数,并最大化该函数。

3.贝叶斯推断(Bayesian Inference)贝叶斯推断是一种基于贝叶斯定理的统计推断方法,它通过先验分布和观测数据的条件概率来更新参数的后验分布。

贝叶斯推断可以通过采样方法如马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)来计算参数的后验分布,进而得到参数的估计值和置信区间。

4.参数辨识的频域方法频域方法在信号处理和系统辨识中应用广泛。

它基于信号的频谱特性和一些假设,通过谱估计方法如传递函数辨识和系统辨识,来推断模型的参数。

典型的频域方法有最小相位辨识、系统辨识的频域特性估计等。

5.信息矩阵(Information matrix)和似然比检验(Likelihoodratio test)信息矩阵和似然比检验是统计推断中的基本工具,也可以用于模型参数辨识。

信息矩阵衡量了参数估计的方差和协方差,可以通过信息矩阵来进行参数辨识的有效性检验。

似然比检验则是比较两个模型的似然函数值,用于判断哪个模型更好地解释观测数据。

总之,模型参数辨识是通过观测数据,推断出模型的参数值。

常用的方法包括最小二乘法、极大似然估计、贝叶斯推断、频域方法和信息矩阵等。

在实际应用中,选择合适的参数辨识方法需要考虑模型的特点、数据的性质以及求解的复杂度等因素。

工具变量法(二):弱工具变量

工具变量法(二):弱工具变量

⼯具变量法(⼆):弱⼯具变量世上没有完美的计量⽅法,因为所有的计量⽅法与模型均依赖于⼀定的前提假设。

因此,在估计完计量模型后,通常需要对模型的前提假设进⾏检验,称为 “诊断性检验”(diagnostic checking)或 “模型检验”(model checking)。

⼯具变量法也不例外。

⼯具变量法的成⽴依赖于有效的⼯具变量(valid instruments),即所使⽤的⼯具变量须满⾜相关性(与内⽣解释变量相关)与外⽣性(与扰动项不相关)。

⼯具变量的相关性(Instrument Relevance)在⼤样本下,2SLS为⼀致估计。

但对于⼤多数实践中的有限样本(finite sample),2SLS估计量依然存在偏差(bias),并不以真实参数为其分布的中⼼,即⽽且,如果⼯具变量与内⽣变量的相关性较弱,则 2SLS 的偏差会变得更为严重。

直观来看,2SLS 的基本思想是通过外⽣的⼯具变量,从内⽣变量中分离出⼀部分外⽣变动(exogenous variations),以获得⼀致估计。

如果⼯具变量与内⽣变量的相关性很弱,则通过⼯具变量分离出的内⽣变量之外⽣变动仅包含很少的信息。

因此,利⽤这些少量信息进⾏的⼯具变量法估计就不准确,即使样本容量很⼤也很难收敛到真实的参数值。

这种⼯具变量称为 “弱⼯具变量”(weak instruments)。

弱⼯具变量的后果弱⼯具变量的后果类似于样本容量过⼩,会导致 2SLS 的⼩样本性质变得很差,⽽ 2SLS 的⼤样本分布也可能离正态分布相去甚远,致使基于⼤样本理论的统计推断失效。

下⾯通过蒙特卡洛模拟(Monte Carlo simulation)来直观地考察弱⼯具变量的后果。

考虑最简单的⼀元回归模型,假设其数据⽣成过程(data generating process)为:其中,为内⽣变量,与扰动项相关;⽽的真实系数为 2。

假设样本容量为10,000,并使⽤⼯具变量进⾏ 2SLS 回归。

最大复合似然法

最大复合似然法

最大复合似然法(中英文版)英文文档:Maximum Composite Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is a statistical method used to estimate the parameters of a model from observed data.The method involves maximizing the likelihood function, which is a measure of how likely the observed data is under a given set of parameters.In the case of the maximum composite likelihood method, the likelihood function is composed of multiple terms, each of which is a likelihood function for a different subsample of the data.This approach is particularly useful when the data can be partitioned into independent or nearly independent subsamples, such as in the case of time series data or data from repeated experiments.The main advantage of the maximum composite likelihood method is that it can lead to more accurate parameter estimates compared to using a single likelihood function.This is because the composite likelihood function takes into account the structure of the data, and can provide a more robust estimate of the parameters.The method involves several steps.First, the data is partitioned into subsamples.Then, a likelihood function is defined for each subsample.The composite likelihood function is then defined as the product of thelikelihood functions for each subsample.The next step is to differentiate the composite likelihood function with respect to the parameters, and set the derivatives equal to zero to find the maximum.Finally, the maximum composite likelihood estimator is obtained by solving the system of equations obtained from the derivatives.The maximum composite likelihood method is a powerful tool for parameter estimation in many fields, including statistics, economics, and engineering.It has been widely applied in various areas, such as in the estimation of time series models, the analysis of panel data, and the estimation of genetic parameters in population genetics.中文文档:最大复合似然估计法(MLE)是一种统计方法,用于从观测数据中估计模型的参数。

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Noam Slonim Yair WeissSchool of Computer Science&Engineering,Hebrew University,Jerusalem91904,Israelnoamm,yweiss@cs.huji.ac.ilAbstractThe information bottleneck(IB)method is an information-theoretic formulationfor clustering problems.Given a joint distribution,this method constructsa new variable that defines partitions over the values of that are informativeabout.Maximum likelihood(ML)of mixture models is a standard statisticalapproach to clustering problems.In this paper,we ask:how are the two methodsrelated?We define a simple mapping between the IB problem and the ML prob-lem for the multinomial mixture model.We show that under this mapping theproblems are strongly related.In fact,for uniform input distribution over orfor large sample size,the problems are mathematically equivalent.Specifically,in these cases,everyfixed point of the IB-functional defines afixed point of the(log)likelihood and vice versa.Moreover,the values of the functionals at thefixed points are equal under simple transformations.As a result,in these cases,every algorithm that solves one of the problems,induces a solution for the other.1IntroductionUnsupervised clustering is a central paradigm in data analysis.Given a set of objects, one would like tofind a partition which optimizes some score function.Tishby et al.[1]proposed a principled information-theoretic approach to this problem.In this approach,given the joint distribution,one looks for a compact representation of, which preserves as much information as possible about(see[2]for a detailed discussion). The mutual information,,between the random variables and is given by[3]parameters(e.g.in Gaussian mixtures).Clustering corresponds tofirstfinding the maximum likelihood estimates of and then using these parameters to calculate the posterior probability that the measurements at were generated by each source.These posterior probabilities define a“soft”clustering of values.While both approaches try to solve the same problem the viewpoints are quite different.In the information-theoretic approach no assumption is made regarding how the data was gen-erated but we assume that the joint distribution is known exactly.In the maximum-likelihood approach we assume a specific generative model for the data and assume we have samples,not the true probability.In spite of these conceptual differences we show that under a proper choice of the genera-tive model,these two problems are strongly related.Specifically,we use the multinomial mixture model(a.k.a the one-sided[4]or the asymmetric clustering model[5]),and pro-vide a simple“mapping”between the concepts of one problem to those of the ing this mapping we show that in general,searching for a solution of one problem induces a search in the solution space of the other.Furthermore,for uniform input distributionor for large sample sizes,we show that the problems are mathematically equivalent.Hence, in these cases,any algorithm which solves one problem,induces a solution for the other. 2Short review of the IB methodIn the IB framework,one is given as input a joint distribution.Given this distri-bution,a compressed representation of is introduced through the stochastic mapping .The goal is tofind such that the IB-functional,isminimized for a given value of.The joint distribution over and is defined through the IB Markovian independence relation,.Specifically,every choice of defines a specific joint prob-ability.Therefore,the distributions and that are involved in calculating the IB-functional are given by(1)In principle every choice of is possible but as shown in[1],if and are given,the choice that minimizes is defined through,is the Kullback-Leibler divergence.Iterating over this equation and the-step defined in Eq.(1) defines an iterative algorithm that is guaranteed to converge to a(local)fixed point of[1].3Short review of ML for mixture modelsIn a multinomial mixture model,we assume that takes on discrete values and sample it from a multinomial distribution,where denotes’s label.In the one-sided clustering model[4][5]we further assume that there can be multiple observations corresponding to a single but they are all sampled from the same multinomial distribution. This model can be described through the following generative process:For each choose a unique label by sampling from.For–choose by sampling from.–choose by sampling from and increase by one.Let denotes the random vector that defines the(typically hidden)labels, or topics for all.The complete likelihood is given by:(3)(4) where is a count matrix.The(true)likelihood is defined through summing over all the possible choices of,(5)Given,the goal of ML estimation is tofind an assignment for the parameters and such that the likelihood is(at least locally)maximized.Since it is easy to show that the ML estimate for is just the empirical counts(where ),we further focus only on estimating.A standard algorithm for this purpose is the EM algorithm[6].Informally,in the-step we replace the missing value of by its distribution which we denote by .In the-step we use that distribution to ing standard derivation it is easy to verify that in our context the-step is defined through(6)(7)(8)where and are normalization factors and4The ML IB mappingAs already mentioned,the IB problem and the ML problem stem from different motiva-tions and involve different“settings”.Hence,it is not entirely clear what is the purpose of “mapping”between these problems.Here,we define this mapping to achieve two goals.Thefirst is theoretically motivated:using the mapping we show some mathematical equiv-alence between both problems.The second is practically motivated,where we show thatalgorithms designed for one problem are(in some cases)suitable for solving the other.A natural mapping would be to identify each distribution with its corresponding one.How-ever,this direct mapping is problematic.Assume that we are mapping from ML to IB.If we directly map to,respectively,obviously there is no guarantee that the IB Markovian independence relation will hold once we complete themapping.Specifically,using this relation to extract through Eq.(1)will in general re-sult with a different prior over then by simply defining.However,we notice that once we defined and,the other distributions could be extracted by per-forming the IB-step defined in Eq.(1).Moreover,as already shown in[1],performing this step can only improve(decrease)the corresponding IB-functional.A similar phenomenon is present once we map from IB to ML.Although in principle there are no“consistency”problems by mapping directly,we know that once we defined and,we can ex-tract and by a simple-step.This step,by definition,will only improve the likelihood, which is our goal in this setting.The only remaining issue is to define a corresponding com-ponent in the ML setting for the trade-off parameter.As we will show in the next section, the natural choice for this purpose is the sample size,.Therefore,to summarize,we define the mapping byat thefixed points,,with constant.Corollary5.2When is uniformly distributed,every algorithm whichfinds afixed point of,induces afixed point of with,and vice versa.When the algorithmfinds severalfixed points,the solution that maximizes is mapped to the one that minimizes. Proof:We prove the direction from ML to IB.the opposite direction is similar.We assume that we are given observations where is constant,and that define afixed point of the likelihood.As a result,this is also afixed point of the EM algorithm(where is defined through an-step).Using observation4.2it follows that thisfixed-pointis mapped to afixed-point of with,as required.Since at thefixed point,,it is enough to show the relationship between and .Rewriting from Eq.(10)we get(14) Multiplying both sides by(15) Reducing a(constant)to both sides gives:(16) as required.We emphasize again that this equivalence is for a specific value of.Corollary5.3When is uniformly distributed and,every algorithm decreases ,iff it decreases with.This corollary is a direct result from the above proof that showed the equivalence of the free energy of the model and the IB-functional(up to linear transformations).The previous claims dealt with the special case of uniform prior over.The following claims provide similar results for the general case,when the(or)are large enough. Claim5.4For(or),all thefixed points of are mapped to all thefixed points of,and vice versa.Moreover,at thefixed points,.Corollary5.5When every algorithm whichfinds afixed point of,induces a fixed point of with,and vice versa.When the algorithmfinds several different fixed points,the solution that maximizes is mapped to the solution that minimize.Small β (iIB)Figure 1:Progress of and for different and values,while running iIB and EM.Proof:Again,we prove only the direction from ML to IB as the opposite direction is similar.We are given where and that define a fixed point of .Using the -step in Eq.(6)we extract,ending up with a fixed point of the EM algorithm.We notice that from follows .Therefore,the mappingbecomes deterministic:otherwise.(17)Performing the mapping (including the IB-step),it is easy to verify that we get (but if the prior over is not uniform).After completing the mapping we try to updatethrough Eq.(2).Since now it follows that will remain deterministic.Specifically,otherwise,(18)which is equal to its previous value.Therefore,we are at a fixed point of the IB iterative algorithm,and by that at a fixed point of the IB-functional ,as required.To show thatwe notice again that at the fixed point .FromEq.(13)we see that (19)Using the mapping and similar algebra as above,we find that(20)Corollary 5.6When every algorithm decreases iff it decreases with .How large must (or )be?We address this question through numeric simulations.Yet,roughly speaking,we notice that the value of for which the above claims (approximately)hold is related to the “amount of uniformity”in.Specifically,a crucial step in the above proof assumed that each is large enough such that becomes deterministic.Clearly,whenis less uniform,achieving this situation requires larger values.6SimulationsWe performed several different simulations using different IB and ML algorithms.Due to the lack of space,only one example is reported below;In this example we used theFigure2:In general,ML(for mixture models)and IB operate in different solution spaces. Nonetheless,a sequence of probabilities that is obtained through some optimization routine(e.g.,EM)in the“ML space”,can be mapped to a sequence of probabilities in the“IB space”,and vice versa.The main result of this paper is that under some conditions thesetwo sequences are completely equivalent.subset of the20-Newsgroups corpus[9],consisted of documents randomly chosen from different discussion groups.Denoting the documents by and the words by,after pre-processing[10]we have.Since our main goal was to check the differences between IB and ML for different values of(or),we further produced another dataset.In this data we randomly choose onlyabout of the word occurrences for every document,ending up with. For both datasets we clustered the documents into clusters,using both EM and the iterative IB(iIB)algorithm(where we took).For each algorithm we used the mapping to calculate and during the process (e.g.,for iIB,after each iteration we mapped from to,including the-step,andcalculated).We repeated this procedure for different initializations,for each dataset. In these runs we found that usually both algorithms improved both functionals paring the functionals during the process,we see that for the smaller sample size the differences are indeed more evident(Figure1).Comparing thefinal values of the functionals(after iterations,which typically yielded convergence),we see that in out of runs iIB converged to a smaller value of than EM.In runs,EM converged to a smaller value of.Thus,occasionally,iIBfinds a better ML solution or EMfinds a better IB solution.This phenomenon was much more common for the large sample size case.7DiscussionWhile we have shown that the ML and IB approaches are equivalent under certain con-ditions,it is important to keep in mind the different assumptions both approaches make regarding the joint distribution over.The mixture model(1)assumes that is inde-pendent of given and(2)assumes that is one of a small number()of possible conditional distributions.For this reason,the marginal probability over(i.e., )is usually different fromfor which the mixture model assumption holds,.In this sense,we may say that while solving the IB problem,one tries to minimize the KL with respect to the“ideal”world,in which separates from.On the other hand,while solving the ML problem,one assumes an“ideal”world,and tries to minimize the KL with respect to the given marginal distribution.Our theoretical analysis shows that under the mapping,these two procedures are in some cases equivalent(see Figure2). Once we are able to map between ML and IB,it should be interesting to try and adopt additional concepts from one approach to the other.In the following we provide two such examples.In the IB framework,for large enough,the quality of a given solution is measured throughThe KL with respect to is defined as the minimum over all the members in.Therefore, here,both arguments of the KL are changing during the process,and the distributions involved in the minimization are over all the three random variables.。

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