现金流对营运资本管理的影响和资金投资【外文翻译】

外文翻译
原文
The Cash Flow Implications of Managing Working Capital and Capital Investment Material Source：Journal of Business ＆Economic Studies
Author: Russell P。

Boisjoly
INTRODUCTION
In recent years major corporations have discovered that there are important cash flow streams available to them if they aggressively manage their working capital accounts (accounts receivable，inventory，accounts payable，and advance payments）.While some have argued that cash flows generated through working capital management (improving inventory turnover, aggressive accounts receivable collection policies or supplier management programs, lengthening accounts payable payment periods，etc。

）are transitory and, therefore, are not indicative of a fundamental improvement in the internal value creation process （business model）, there is limited empirical evidence on whether these practices (a) have changed the underlying probability distributions of the related financial ratios，(b) persisted over several years rather than just 2 or 3 years as implied by Mulford and Ely who purport that changes are transitory or temporary, （c) whether these changes in working capital management policies have impacted market values positively (or negatively) or (d）whether we understand the model for cash flows through the firm adequately to properly conduct empirical tests or forecast cash flows. In addition to managerial policies, one should probably consider changes in technology and changes in the financial environment。

Typical DSO or ACP ratios have been radically lowered for most merchandisers by the nearly universal outsourcing of the credit function to credit card companies. Also, the decline of short-term interest rates most certainly affected WC policies during the period in question, making firms less willing to hold cash, and perhaps more willing to increase short—term liabilities。

This issue is important to examine not only to determine if changes in management practices have impacted cash flow and value creation, but also to investigate whether ratio norms may have changed and shifted the benchmarks for comparisons between firms。

Furthermore, these benchmarks are derived from the
measures of central tendency, but the appropriate use of these benchmarks may be influenced （or biased）by the third (skewness) and fourth (kurtosis) moments of the ratio distributions or industry effects or financial condition. If the bias exists and if the skewness is significant, then the appropriate benchmarks may deviate significantly from the mean, median，or mode. In the past，some researchers excluded “outliers,” e.g。

，introduced by skewness，from their studies because they were responsible for departures from normality，or they made square root or logarithmic transformations to the data to reestablish or more nearly approach normality. These adjustments theoretically would leave the “benchmarks” unaltered。

But, there is substantial evidence the distributions of financial ratios exhibit positive skewness。

Previous studies show that distributions of financial ratios exhibit positive skewness and departures from normality。

However there have been no attempts to explain the source of the skewness. If management has engaged in practices that should attenuate mean deviations, skewness，or kurtosis，then there may be evidence of this that can be discovered by following firms over time。

If distributions have shifted (mean，variance，skewness，and/or kurtosis), then a longitudinal investigation may lead to the establishment of new benchmarks or a new benchmark measurement process, as well as examine the impact on stock price performance。

Also，if evidence exists for ratio distribution shifts，then there is cause to reexamine the value creation process and the causality of cash flow generation to value creation. Therefore，the starting point is this longitudinal study of an original sample of 50 firms to determine if distributions have shifted due to changes in working capital management and corporate reinvestment policies。

HYPOTHESIS FORMULATION
This study will look at the distributional properties of several financial ratios tied to the working capital management and capital investment processes of the firm。

We will investigate whether there is evidence to support the acceptance of the hypotheses that corporations, especially the largest firms，have become more vigorous in managing their working capital processes or capital investment practices to generate significant improvements in cash flow。

Specifically, corporations may have improved the management of accounts receivable, inventory, accounts payable, and advance payments to such an extent that distributions of the related financial ratios have shifted significantly。

The distributions also may be more skewed as a result of these changes in corporate policy to accelerate customer payments or
extend the period taken to pay suppliers. In addition, corporations may have reduced their reinvestment in the firm as a result of productivity improvements that have been achieved over the last 15 years。

The reduction in capital investment may have improved the cash flow position of the firms that experienced significant productivity improvements。

Hypothesis 1：There has been a significant improvement in the management of accounts receivable that has led to a significant improvement in the accounts receivable turnover during the period 1990 to 2004。

Hypothesis 1a：The distribution of the accounts receivable turnover ratio has become more positively skewed over the 1990-2004 time period.
Hypothesis 2: There has been a significant improvement in the management of inventory that has led to a significant improvement in the inventory turnover during the period 1990 to 2004。

Hypothesis 2a: The distribution of the inventory turnover ratio has become more positively skewed over the 1990-2004 time period.
Hypothesis 3：There has been a significant improvement in the management of accounts payable that has led to a significant decrease in the accounts payable turnover during the period 1990 to 2004。

Hypothesis 3a: The distribution of the accounts payable turnover ratio has become more negatively skewed over the 1990—2004 time period.
Hypothesis 4：There has been a significant improvement in the management of working capital that has led to a significant improvement in the working capital per share during the period 1990 to 2004。

Hypothesis 4a: The distribution of the working capital per share ratio has become more positively skewed over the 1990—2004 time period
Hypothesis 5: There has been a significant improvement in the management of working capital that has led to a significant improvement in the cash flow per share during the period 1990 to 2004。

Hypothesis 5a：The distribution of the cash flow per share ratio has become more positively skewed over the 1990-2004 time period.
Hypothesis 6: There has been a significant improvement in the management of capital expenditures that has led to a significant reduction in the investment ratio during the period 1990 to 2004.
Hypothesis 6a：The distribution of the investment ratio has become less positively skewed over the 1990—2004 time period.
METHODOLOGY
The empirical tests of these hypotheses were conducted on an original sample of 50 selected at random from the 2005 Fortune 500. We excluded banking institutions and firms from the oil and gas industries since they have unique characteristics and two firms selected at random were eliminated from consideration because they were in bankruptcy。

The final viable sample was 48 spread across industries and then Delphi declared bankruptcy during the analysis period. Data were collected from Compustat for the years 1990-2004。

After calculating the ratios some firms were eliminated from consideration for individual ratios because they did not have enough data points；because they were acquired or were formed through acquisition during the study period; because they went bankrupt during the study period; or they did not report the data categories needed to calculate a specific ratio during an extended period of time during the study time frame. This sample consisted of non-bank institutions across a variety of industries。

The purpose of this study is to determine whether any evidence exists to support the hypotheses stated above。

And，if any of the hypotheses are confirmed, this would be one of the first studies to attribute empirical results for financial ratios to changes in management practices over time。

EMPIRICAL RESULTS
The data were analyzed and summary statistics were calculated for the sample firms。

It reports the means of five financial ratios of interest: accounts receivable turnover, inventory turnover，accounts payable turnover，working capital per share，and cash flow per share. As expected，account receivable turnover and inventory turnover increase monotonically over the 15 year time period. Corporations have focused on improving these measures using a variety of managerial techniques。

In managing accounts receivable corporations have utilized techniques such as employing more vigorous collection procedures，offering more generous cash discounts to early payers，paying early and taking discounts even when discounts are not offered, factoring receivables, improving product quality to reduce disputed receivables which tend not to be paid while the dispute remains unresolved，etc。

In managing inventory firms have utilized just-in—time procedures with suppliers to reduce storage while awaiting production；make-to-order procedures to reduce work—in-process inventory，lean manufacturing initiatives to reduce the order—to-ship cycle time，quality programs that emphasize design for manufacture to reduce the number of parts，supplier
rationalization to reduce the number of suppliers which reduces the number of different parts, etc. The numbers reported by writer verify that these corporate initiatives and programs seem to be working and improving results.
译文
现金流对营运资本管理的影响和资金投资
资料来源：商业杂志和经济研究作者：Russell P。

Boisjoly
相关介绍
近年来很多大型企业发现，如果他们能积极地管理其营运资金帐户（应收账款，存货，应付帐款，以及预付款），就能拥有大量的现金流.然而一些人认为，那些通过营运资金管理（提高存货周转率,积极的应收帐款催收政策或者是供应商管理程序,延长应付帐款付款期等）而产生的现金流量是暂时的。

所以，并不能说明在内部价值创造过程（业务模型）中会有根本的好转，关于这些做法有相关的实验性证据：(1）已改变了相关的财务比率的基本概率分布；(2）在持续数年间,而不是只有2或3年里，已经被马尔福德和伊利预测到,他们曾声称改变是暂时的或是临时的；(3）在考虑营运资本管理政策时，这些变化对市场价值的影响是肯定的(或是消极的)；(4）我们通过企业是否能充分地理解现金流模型，来妥善进行实证试验或预测现金流量。

除了管理政策,我们可能考虑那些在技术和金融环境的变化下而产生的变化。

典型的DSO或ACP比例通过信贷功能的信用卡公司外包已经从根本上削弱了多数的推销商.此外，在讨论期间，短期利率下降必然影响有关WC政策,使得企业不太愿意持有现金,也许更愿意增加短期负债。

这个问题很重要，不仅要审查,以确定管理实务的改变是否已经影响了现金流和创造价值，而且也要调查比率基准是否已经改变，在企业之间已经替换了类似的基准。

此外，这些基准是来自集中趋势测量，但这些基准的适当应用也可能受到比率分派或者是产业效果或者财政状况的影响（或有偏差），影响可能是三分之一（偏斜度）或在第四(峰态）.如果存在偏差，或者偏差的存在能产生一定的影响，那么适当的基准在某一程度上可能会偏离平均数、中位数，或者在模式上也有一定的偏差。

在过去，一些研究人员会排除异常值。

例如，他们从研究中引入偏度，为了对违反常态负责；或者他们对数据提出平方根或对数转换来恢复或更接近正常的做法。

这些调整理论上会让“基准”保持不变。

但是，有大量证据表明财务比率呈现正偏态分布.
以往的研究表明,财务比率呈现正偏态分布和反常态分布。

但是大家也没有
尝试着去解释怎么会产生偏度。

如果管理层在实际过程中减弱平均偏差，偏度或者峰度，那么经过一段时间，通过所举例的企业可能会找到相关的证据。

如果比率分布在一段时间内转移，然后一项纵向研究可能有助于确定转移是暂时的或长期的。

如果分布有转移（均值，方差，偏度，和/或峰度)，那么一个纵向调查可能会导致新的基准或新基准测量过程的建立，以及研究对股票价格绩效的影响。

同样，如果有证据证明比率分布在变化，那么我们有理由要重新审视价值创造过程和现金流量产生创造价值的因果关系.因此,出发点就是通过50家公司的一个原始样品的纵向研究，以确定分布的转移是由于营运资金的管理和企业再投资政策的变化所造成的.
假设规划
这项研究将着眼于营运资金管理与企业资本投资过程的几种财务比率的分布性质.我们将调查是否有证据可以支持假设，那就是一些企业，特别是规模较大的企业，通过管理其营运资金或资本投资实践过程而产生更大的现金流，它们在这方面的成绩显得更加有力。

具体来说，企业可能有完善的应收账款，存货，应付帐款，预付款管理。

在这样的条件下，相关的财务比率的分布就会有明显的转变。

这样的分布可能更多地会被认为是企业政策，用来加速客户付款或延长供应商支付现金的期限。

此外,公司如果在过去15年里生产力有很大的进步，成果显著，就可能因此而降低该公司的再投资。

如果一个企业在生产力上有明显的提高，那么企业资本性投资的减少就会提高该企业的现金流状况。

假设1：在1990至2004年期间，应收账款管理很大程度上的改善促进了应收账款周转率的显著提高。

假设1a:在1990年至2004年时间内，应收账款周转率的比例分配呈正偏态分布。

假设2：在1990至2004年期间，库存管理的改善使存货周转有很大的提高。

假设2a：在1990至2004年时间段，存货周转率的比例分配呈正偏态分布。

假设3:1990至2004年，应付帐款管理显著的改善,导致应付账款周转期减少.
假说3a：在1990年至2004年期间，应付账款周转率的比率分布呈负偏态分布.
假设4：1990至2004年，营运资金管理的显著改善，明显提高了资本份额。

假说4a:在1990年至2004年期间,每股资本的比例分配呈正偏态分布。

假设5：1990至2004年，营运资金管理的改善，使每股现金流量有明显的提高.
假说5a：1990-2004年时间段，每股现金流的比例分配变得更加正偏。

假说6：1990至2004年期间，资本性支出管理的改善,使投资比例有明显的减少.
假设6a：投资比率的比例分配已成为低度正偏斜.
方法
我们从2005年的财富500强里随机选择了50个原始样本进行这些假说的实证检验。

我们排除了一些来自石油和天然气行业的金融机构和企业，因为他们有独特的特点，其中被随机挑选出来的两家企业也被淘汰了，由于这两家企业已经破产了。

最后可行的样本蔓延在48个行业里，然而在分析期间，德尔福却宣布了破产。

我们通过电子计算机汇集数据库来收集数据，这些数据分布在1990—2004年期间，期间我们没有控制财政年度结束日期。

在计算相关比率，经过个人考虑后，一些企业将被淘汰，因为他们没有足够的数据点；或是在修业期间已经被收购或是通过收购形成的；或是在研究期间已经破产了；或者他们没有报告所需的数据类别，而这些数据在延长期间的学习范围内是用来计算一些具体比率的。

这些样本包括跨多种行业的非银行金融机构。

本研究的目的是确定是否有任何证据支持上述假说。

而且,如果有任何的假设得到证实，这将是由管理经验做法而产生的关于财务比率的第一个研究，并且这些财务比率在管理实务方面会随着时间的推移而不断的变化。

实证结果
不管是对数据进行分析，还是那些扼要的统计资料都是针对样品中的企业而设计的。

其中有五个计算财务比率的方法：应收账款周转率，存货周转率，应付帐款周转,每股资本，每股现金流量。

正如所预测的,应收账款周转率和存货周转率在15年的时间里单调增加.公司都是集中于提高那些多种管理技术的措施。

公司在管理应收账款方面采取了一些方法，例如用更有力的收集程序；提供给那些付款相对较早的人更好的现金折扣优惠,以尽早缴纳；采取折扣，即使一些折扣没有付诸于实际；代理应收账款，用提高产品质量来减少应收款项的争论，而这些应收款项在争论还没解决的时候都是没有支付的等等。

公司在库存管理方面与供应商之间进行交易都是利用及时性的时间程序，以减少存储，同时等待生产，根据定时的程序来操作，从而减少半成品存货;为了减少周期时间而采取精益生产举措，很多企业强调产品设计而按质量程序来进行,这样就能减少零件数量；降低那些减少不同零件的供应商的数量，使供应商合理化等等。

作者所记录的数据验证了公司的积极性和那些方案似乎是可行的,对结果也有积极的影响。