汽车运输风险评估

学号20110610050240

密级公开兰州城市学院本科毕业论文

汽车运输安全风险评估

学院名称：培黎工程技术学院

专业名称：交通运输（职教师资）

学生姓名：杨佳

指导教师：卢柏蓉

二○一五年五月

BACHELOR'S DEGREE THESIS

OF LANZHOU CITY UNIVERSITY

Safety Risk Assessment of Vehicle Transportation

College ：School of Bailie Engineering &

Technology

Subject ：Traffic and transportation

Name ：Yang Jia

Directed by ：Lu Bairong

May 2015

郑重声明

本人呈交的学位论文，是在导师的指导下，独立进行研究工作所取得的成果，所有数据、图片资料真实可靠。尽我所知，除文中已经注明引用的内容外，本学位论文的研究成果不包含他人享有著作权的内容。对本论文所涉及的研究工作做出贡献的其他个人和集体，均已在文中以明确的方式标明。本学位论文的知识产权归属于培养单位。

本人签名：日期：

摘要

汽车运输安全与人民群众的生产、生活密切相关，直接影响人民的利益和经济建设的发展。目前，随着经济不断发展，运输行业也有着跨越式的发展，汽车运输的安全风险越来越高，安全管理的难度不断加大，严重威胁着人民的生命财产安全。研究汽车运输安全风险，对于提高汽车运输安全管理水平有着重要意义。

本文首先介绍了国内外风险管理的研究现状，提出了汽车运输安全风险评估问题，概述这篇文章的研究目的及主要研究内容。接着阐述了汽车风险管理的基本理论和方法体系，包括汽车运输安全风险管理的概念与目标、汽车运输安全风险评估的方法步骤。然后构建起汽车运输安全评估指标体系，主要由汽车运输安全风险识别和汽车运输安全风险分析两部分组成，并对汽车运输安全运输风险评估的方法进行了详细介绍。最后，结合实例完成了具体运输任务的安全风险评估。

本文的创新点在于尝试将风险理论引入到汽车运输安全管理中，采用模糊层次分析和模糊综合评价相结合的方法进行风险评价。既可以发挥模糊综合评价法在运用模糊数学进行指标定量评价的优势，又可以通过模糊层次分析弥补模糊综合评价方法在权重确定方面的不足，避免了过多人为因素干扰的影响。

关键词：汽车运输安全；风险管理；风险评估；模糊综合评价

ABSTRACT

Vehicle. transportation safety is closely related to people's life and production, directly affects the interests of the people and the development of economic construction. With the social and economic development, the auto possession is increases constantly. The safety management is more and more difficult. The vehicle transportation becomes a serious threat to the people’s life and property safety. The research on vehicle transportation safety risk is significant to improve the vehicle transportation safety management level.

This paper introduced the research situation of domestic and international risk management, put forward the problem of motor transport safety risk assessment, summarized the research purpose of this article and the main research content. Then expounded the basic theory and method system of automobile risk management, including concepts and objectives of automobile transportation safety risk management, risk assessment procedures of motor transport safety. And then build up the motor carrier safety assessment index system, it mainly composed by motor transport safety risk identification and motor transport safety risk analysis, and made an detailed introduction of risk assessment method upon the automobile transportation security. Finally, completed the security risk assessment of specific transportation task with living examples.

Innovation of this paper lies in making an attempt to introduce risk theory to the safety management of military vehicle transport, and the selection of the method combined with FAHP and FCE for risk evaluation. Using FCE plays the advantage in the fuzzy mathematics for quantitative evaluation. And using FAHP can make up for the deficiency of FCE in determining weight so as to avoid too much interference with human factors.