GRE北美范文Argu

16
The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
“A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise.Currently,the nearest jazz club is65miles away;thus,our proposed club,the C Note,would have the local market all to itself.Plus,jazz is extremely popular in Monroe:over100,000people attended Monroe’s jazz festival last summer,several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe,and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is‘Jazz Nightly,’which airs every weeknight.Finally,a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to$1,000per year on jazz entertainment.It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money.”
It is widely held belief that it’s always wise to invest in something welcomed while not easily available in an area.Obviously,the arguer is confident in making satisfactory profit by having a jazz music club in Monroe,where jazz music is prevailing while no relevant club exists.The argument seems sound and convictive at first glance,but I am afraid that there are some flaws in it that undermined the validity.
The arguer saw Jazz’s attraction in Monroe,where the highest-rated radio program is Jazz relevant.Hence he straightly declares that a Jazz club will have a good local market there.But nowadays people are busy with their jobs and might not have enough time to patronize clubs as frequently as before.Thanks to the radio and CD sets,everyone can enjoy music anytime,anywhere.For instance,on their way back home,when preparing dinner,or before sleeping.While going clubs,on the other hand,might be something too luxurious for them to afford for lacking of time.A further investigation on how often people of Monroe will go to jazz clubs is needed before the arguer can sweep out the doubt whether the C-note club will have enough customer. Jazz,as any other forms of arts,has its own relative stable group of buffs,who are likely to stick to several artists for a long time,which means people will not turn to another club or artist so easily as try another brand of milk.So if the investors of C-note want to see good reward,what they have to do is much more than just build the club and invite some jazz musicians.If they failed to offer appealing case of musicians to residents of Monroe,I’m afraid the sincere fans will burden to drive65 miles to another club or simpler,just stay at home listening to CDs of their favorite singers.
The arguer quotes from a nationwide survey that approximately$1000is spent by a typical buff on jazz entertainments,and he presents it as strong proof that the C-note will have a bright future with the generosity of jazz fans.But it’s rather naïve to believe that considerable part of this$1000will be spent on C-note,because it’s highly possible that invest on Hi-Fi,CDs,music instruments occupy a large part,while spending on going clubs might be just trifles.If the arguer can present with specified
items of the percentages spent on different kind of jazz consuming,then we can have a more precise picture of the C-note’s future.
Anyway,I agree that it’s highly possible that building a jazz club in Monroe will have good rewarding.But further investigation and analysis are needed before the further conclusion and ultimate action.
17
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.
“Walnut Grove’s town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal(which has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove for the past ten years)to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from$2,000to$2,500a month,whereas ABC’s fee is still$2,000.But the town council is mistaken;we should continue using EZ.EZ collects trash twice a week,while ABC collects only once.Moreover,EZ--which,like ABC,currently has a fleet of20trucks--has ordered additional trucks.Finally,EZ provides exceptional service:80 percent of respondents to last year’s town survey agreed that they were‘satisfied’with EZ’s performance.”
The arguer’s view seems to be sound and convincing at first glance that Walnut Crove town should stick to EZ Disposal rather than turn to ABC Waste even if the former raises its monthly fee for25%because EZ are offering satisfactory service to the town.,which is worth the more money it asks for.However,I’m afraid his argument can hardly bear further consideration since there are several flaws in it.
One seemingly overwhelming advantage of EZ Disposal over ABC Waste is that the former collects trash twice a week while the latter,however,only once.The arguer lays such emphasis on it that gives us the impression that EZ offers double service only for a25%rise in price compared to ABC Waste.However,we can hardly find any evidence that it’s not redundant for EZ Disposal to do so.In other word,there might not be so much trash as have to been collected twice a week in Walnut Crove. Especially,if the landfill of Walnut Crove is kept under good condition,without the problem of environment contamination,then collection of once a week is enough, which ironically shows the low efficiency of EZ Disposal.It’s absurd to ask people to pay for the low work efficiency with a reason such as double quantity of work.
EZ Disposal’s ordering of additional trucks,on the other hand,is another seemingly powerful reason the arguer present to show EZ will offer better service to the town.But he fails to see the possibility that EZ has to update its trucks,which are old and out of service,rather than add to it’s fleet new trucks.It is unfair if EZ includes this updating
fee into the service price,while the people of Walnut Crove wouldn’t see any more additional improvement in the service it provides than those they deserve.
The proportion that80%respondents are satisfied with EZ’s performance seems to be convincing.However,there are questionable factors:Will the respondents still be satisfied even if the price rises25%?Have the respondents got the chance to try ABC Waste’s service and thus gave a fair comparison between the two?The arguer obviously ignored these by only focus on the absolute figure.
Everyone likes to get better service on relatively lower price.But when things are not the case,a second consideration with rational analysis,comparison and evaluation is needed to see whether the expensive one really worth it.
24
The following appeared in a memo from the president of Viva-Tech,a manufacturer of high-tech medical equipment.
“In order to reduce costs,we should close some of our existing small assembly plants and build a large central plant.Grandview would be an ideal location for this new plant.First,of the locations that we have considered,Grandview has the largest adult population,so that we will be able to staff our plant quickly and easily.Second,since the average wage earned by workers in Grandview is less than that in the other locations,we should be able to keep production costs st,as an inducement for us to build there,Grandview’s town council has offered to allow us to operate for the first three years without paying city taxes.”Grandview seems to be the best choice as the new location for a large central plant of Viva-Tech in the arguer’s point of view with its sufficient adult population,low average wage level and the three years’taxes free policy offered by the town council.These certainly will be advantages for such industries as massive productivity,which need a lot of labors in low wages.When things come to high-tech industries like Viva-Tech, however,much more important things have to be taken into consideration before making decision on such important things as new plant location.
High-Tech industries,unlike traditional industries like iron and steel industry or textiles industry,which need cheap massive labors without special request for high intellectual or complex techniques,look forward to their qualified employees to have specific knowledge.Viva-Tech focuses on the manufacture of high-tech medical equipments. So those without relevant backgrounds in electronically engineering,mechanical
engineering or biotech engineering may not be able to do the highly intellectual jobs. Grandview has largest adult population among the several cities in consideration.Yet we have no idea whether there are enough qualified high-tech workers and engineers, which are crucial to staff the new plant.
Low wage is always appealing to employers,which also attracts the arguer to advocate locating the new plant at the low-wage Grandview.Unfortunately he pays much too attention to the cost on personnel while ignores several essential factors: first,low-wage,to some extent,implies low technique level of the city.If Viva-Tech is to set up its new plant there,it will have to spend much more on recruiting high-tech engineers and workers from outside.On the other hand,low wage with large work force may mean the poor transport condition and links with nearby cities.This may well be the drawback when the new central plant is built here by making difficult the convey of materials and products in and out the city.
The arguer may insist that,anyway,the three-year tax-free is too attractive an offer to be neglected.It does appeal,yet if we ask why the town council of Grandview can provide so marvelous a policy,which is unlikely to be provided in anywhere else,we can reach the conclusion that,there must be few or even no such high-tech companies in Grandview.This in turn convinces us our assumption of relative low technical level and other disadvantages like poor transportation of the city.
In sum,it’s unwise to make rash decision on building the new central plant in Grandview only taking the superficial advantages into account.More detailed survey of the technical level and other important issues should be taken.
40
The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Excello Food Markets.
"In90towns where Excello has food markets,natural-food stores specializing in organic food products—products containing no chemical preservatives and made with foods grown without pesticides—have opened nearby as competitors.Surveys of our own customers reveal a growing concern about foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals.Recently our market in Sun City participated in a local food tasting fair,and75percent of the fair goers who visited the Excello booth requested free samples of organic fruit.Such evidence indicates that to increase our profits,we should begin to stock a full line of organic food products in all our markets."
At first glance,the arguer’s reasoning seems to be quite sound.According to his conclusion,the profit of his company will be raised if they stock a full line of organic food products in all their markets.But unfortunately,if we make a careful consideration of his evidence,doubt will be cast on this conclusion and apprehension will be heaped on this company’s future performance.
First of all,the results of the survey conducted by this company are neither relevant nor convincing.It only implies that customers’concern about foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals is increasing,while it doesn’t necessarily mean that these customers will give up eating these foods and turn to organic foods.They may still have the non-organic foods,since it’s common sense that non-organic foods are usually cheaper than organic foods.Their consideration about price may exceed the concern about whether the food is organic or not.Also,the survey just gives us a description of the customers’psychological characteristics,not their realistic behaviors.As we know,although sometimes,behavior may totally reflect people’s psychological state,in most of the cases,one’s behavior is affected by many other factors.Therefore when we try to get a conclusion about one’s behavior just from his or her psychological preference,we should always be aware of making mistakes.In this case,the customers in the survey may still purchase non-organic foods under the influence of other unforeseeable factors.
When we probe into the result of the food testing fair,we may find even bigger flaws in it.Firstly,it was only carried out in Sun City,but the arguer applies its result to all the company’s markets while doesn’t show us whether Sun City is a representative market of the whole markets.Secondly,it is noticed that those samples of organic fruit is offered for free,not for sale.So we have every reason to be doubtful about that if these foods are on sale,whether there are still so many people choose to buy them. Thirdly,the method of the statistics used in this case also arouses skepticism.It only tells us75percent of the fair goers requested the sample,while doesn’t mention a word about what proportion of the whole citizen in this city the fair goers stand for?If the fair goers only stand for a tiny proportion of the whole city,we should not be so sure about the conclusion that the Sun City is an organic-food-loving market.
After pointing out so many obvious flaws in the argument,now we can say that the reasons used to support the conclusion cannot be relied on.Before any real commercial actions are taken,the company has to better its evaluations of the situation of its markets.More detailed and reliable surveys should be taken if the company wants to make out a profitable plan and avoid undesirable risks.
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52
The following appeared in a memo to the human resources manager at Baobob Inc.,a large architectural firm.
"Several well-known,retired architects were interviewed in Architecture Today about changes in the field.Only one had earned a college degree in architecture.All others had come into the field at an early age by serving apprenticeships that required them to work under the direct supervision of an experienced architect.Several of the colleges that we recruit from report that many promising architecture students leave school early in their undergraduate career. Therefore,because finding talented architecture graduates is becoming more difficult,Baobob Inc.should start an aggressive apprenticeship program and hire students who express an interest in architecture directly out of high school rather than wait for them to get out of college."
In this argument,the arguer recommends that Baobob Inc.,a large architectural firm, should start an aggressive apprenticeship program and hire students who have interests in architecture directly out of high school.This recommendation is based on the inquiry that in the several well-known,retired architects who were interview in Architecture Today,only one has a college degree in architecture.In addition,he cites the report of several architecture colleges,which said many promising architecture students leave school before graduate.The argument suffers from several critical fallacies.
First,the arguer fails to take into account that the society in which the famous architects live is different from today.The main one is that the society is developed rapidly during the later of the20th centuray,especially during the past twenty years, so the level of life,education and technology have go up a big step.For example,it is well known that in the early days going to high school was luxurious and only wealth people could afford the high fees.But today there are so many high colleges that almost everyone has an opportunity to make a further study only if you can pass the entrance examination.That the architects mentioned in the argument rarely have college degree may contribute to the lack of high colleges and funds,not because that without a college degree is helpful for them to be well known in the circle of architect. Second,the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization.In the argument,the arguer cites the report that many promising architecture student leave school early before graduate,but it is doesn’t mention how they work after leaving school and how many of them has developed into excellent architects.In addition the arguer does not provide evidences that the graduate architectural students are less competent than the undergraduate ones.It does not come to the conclusion that without a college degree is beneficial for the architects while with one will damper the graduate architects reaching to the success.
To sum up,starting an aggressive apprenticeship program and hiring students who express an interest in architecture directly out of high school rather than waiting for them to get out of college does not promise to be helpful.To strength the argument,
the arguer should have to provide the providence that the graduated students are less excellent than the undergraduate ones.To better valuate the recommendation,we would need more information that the college degree will be a debacle to the success.
61
The following appeared in a report by the School District of Eyleria.
"Nationally,the average ratio of computers to students in kindergarten through grade12(K-12) is1:cators indicate that this is very good ratio.This means that across the country,all students have access to and can use computers daily in their classrooms.In Eyleria's K-12 schools,the ratio of computers to students is1:7.This number is sufficient to ensure that all of Eyleria's students,by the time they graduate from high school,will be fully proficient in the use of computer technology.Thus,there is no reason to spend any of the schools'budget on computers or other technology in the next few years."
Conclusion of this argument is that schools of Eyleria should no more spend budget on computers or other technology in the next few years.The author’s reason is solely that there is high ratio of computer using within students in national average or even in Eyleria.The argument is unconvincing because it commits several fallacies like cited below.
Firstly,the conclusion that“all students have access to and can use computers daily in their classrooms”is not based upon sufficient evidences.All we could know from the argument is that the average ratio of computer using in k-12students may be high,but the author has never quoted other students’conditions besides k-12ones,nor has he/she ever dropped a word into the trend of using computer.How could he/she know that other students also attach importance in using computer just as k-12ones?We may imagine that if the ratio of students to computer,who are in the grade besides k-12,is much lower than the k-12average,then the conclusion will be weaken. Secondly,the ratio of computers to students in Eyleria,which is1:7,is apparently lower than national average ratio,which is1:5.From this fact we could realize that the popularization of computer in Eyleria is not so well developed as the average.The arguer has never concerned about what is the criteria of depending whether the ratio is“good”,as he/she says.And there also exists a doubtful point,that as time goes by, the computer technology and the learning surroundings or conditions of which may change a lot,how could we draw a conclusions that the students will keep on with their enthusiasm of learning or using computer and being fully proficient in it,when they
pass from k-12to high school?Apparently,here lacks of convincing points.
Thirdly,given that the common use of computer in Eyleria does exist and does have its tendency to increase in the future,the situation of other fields of technology remains unknown because the author has never refer to these.While this may be the same as computer in some cases,it is equally possible that only few categories of knowledge has attract educators’attentions,and some may need to be well developed.
In sum,the author makes many logical errors,thus his opinion is highly unacceptable. If he/she had taken the above problems into account more seriously and incisively,the argument would be better.
73
The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.
"Ten years ago,long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership,and leasing has steadily risen in popularity.For each of the last five years,the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars.The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years;hence,if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year,it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased,not individually owned,cars.Therefore,we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."
In this argument,the arguer advocates that his company should shift the focus of their business from selling cars to leasing cars.To support the argument,the arguer assumes that long-term car leasing has steadily risen in popularity in his country of Mohilia.Meanwhile,to support the recommendation,he assumes that the majority of drivers will be driving leased instead of individually owned cars if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year.However,this argument suffers from several critical fallacies though it seems logical at first glance.
The main problem in this argument is that the fact that the number leasing news cars business surpassing buying new cars does not necessarily imply a steady increase of car leasing business.The arguer cites that the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars and again the new car leases outnumber purchases this year.Although these statistics has justified that car leasing business in
this Mohilia is prosperous,there is no guarantee that new car leases is rising.The arguer’s assumption of rising in car leasing business is completely unfounded.
Another point worth considering is that the arguer fails to take into account profit factor that would lend support to the decision he made.Even if the new car leasing business will see a boom shortly,no evidence show that this business is profitable for his company.It is possible that running a car selling business would be more lucrative compared with car leasing for this company.It is equally possible that his company is not experienced in car leasing business and is not guaranteed to overshoot other rivals in this field,or share certain proportion of the market at least.
As it stands,the argument is not convincing and the decision should be reconsidered. To strengthen the argument,the arguer would have to provide more evidence that car leasing is assuredly rising.To better evaluate the decision,he should demonstrate that car leasing is profitable for this company in the long run.
79
The following appeared in a magazine for the trucking industry.
"The Longhaul trucking company was concerned that its annual accident rate(the number of accidents per mile driven)was too high.It granted a significant pay increase to its drivers and increased its training standards.It also put strict limits on the number of hours per week each driver could drive.The following year,its trucks were involved in half the number of accidents as before the changes were implemented.A survey of other trucking companies found that the highest-paid drivers were the least likely to have had an accident.Therefore,trucking companies wishing to reduce their accident rate can do so simply by raising their drivers'pay and limiting the overall number of hours they drive."
The arguer suggests that trucking companies should simply raise their drivers’pay and limit the overall number of hours they drive to reduce their accident rate.To support his recommendation,the arguer cites an example of the Longhual trucking company successfully reducing its annual accident rate and a survey of other trucking
companies that the highest-paid drivers were the least likely to have had an accident. However,simply by raising drivers’pay and limiting the overall number of hours they drive might be far from being effective in reducing the accidents.
To begin with,it might be true,as the survey indicates,that higher-paid drivers were less likely to have an accident,but it does not follow that the higher pay is the causal of less risk to have accidents.The arguer might have ignored other factors that have some correlation or causal relation with less likelihood to have an accidents,such as what have been mentioned:higher training standards,strict limits on the number of hours per week each driver could drive,and etc.Or else not mentioned in the argument,for example,the highest-paid drivers are senior drivers who are skillful in driving and have more experience.
In addition,admittedly,the Longhual trucking company might reach a success in decrease its annual accident rate to50percent by granting three effective measures, but the annual accident rate might not decrease to an ideal degree.To reduce its annual accident rate to an ideal degree,more actions should be carried out,such as limiting the continuous driving hours to prevent drivers from being too tired.As we all know,tiredness is a significant cause of accident.
What’s more,situations in different company differ greatly,so that,each company should take different measures against its own problem which mainly cause the high accident rates rather than simply raising drivers’pay and limiting the overall number of driving hours.
Consequently,for lack of some details of the Longhaul trucking company and the survey,the arguer’s suggestion is not acceptable.More factors should be taken into account in reducing the annual accidents according to the feature of different trucking company.
88
The following appeared in a newsletter about health published in the country of Sauria. "According to Sauria's leading nutritional experts,a diet high in complex carbohydrates,and low in fat is optimal for good health and longevity.Because this was the diet of the people who lived in ancient Sauria,one would expect them to have had long and healthy lives.Yet the mummified remains of Sauria's ruling classes from two to three thousand years ago show the
existence of many medical problems among the ancient Saurians,including dental problems, elevated blood pressure,obesity,heart disease,and early mortality.Clearly,the diet of the ancient Saurians was responsible for these problems.The high incidence of high blood pressure,obesity,and heart disease in Sauria today even among those who have tried low-fat, high-carbohydrate diets further proves that Sauria's leading nutritional experts are wrong."
By considering the low-fat,high-carbohydrate diets of the ancient Saurians and the variety of medical problems of them,the author arrives at the conclusion that nutritional experts are totally wrong to recommend people to apply such a diet as effective way to ensure good health and longevity.What’s more,the author insists that the high incidence of high blood pressure,obesity and heart disease actually stem from this diet.Plausible as it may seem,the author’s argument leaves much to be questioned.
As we all know,all lives are evolving and so are human beings.Both the environment and the physical situation have changed a lot from ancient Sauria to present.Although mummified remains of ancient Sauria’s people show the existence of many medical problems much like what are prevailing today in Sauria,the author ignores the fact that these mummies were among the ruling classes in lifetime.This means that they were able to get more than sufficient nutrition,which may have led to their healthy problems.The average people of ancient Sauria,however,might not have been so lucky as to have meat and fish in everyday life,and consequently their diets were really the same as the one recommended by expert today.If they had been made into mummies,we might have found that they were free from high blood pressure,obesity, heart disease and other problems caused by high-fat,low carbohydrate diet.
The existence of mortality in ancient Sauria,which has largely diminished today,also proves that the medical condition of ancient Sauria is poor.And this limitation may account for a large portion of diseases assaulted ancient Sauria.Although the average life span of ancient Saurians might not been very long,it must not have been the fault of this low-fat,high carbohydrate diet.
And the author also makes a lethal mistake by reverting the relationship between cause and result.He/she tries to convince us that it is this low-fat,high-carbohydrate diet that causes those healthy problems modern Saurians have today.Yet if we think otherwise,it is much more possible that those who have been struck by those disease are trying to improve their health by applying this low-fat,high-carbohydrate diet.After a period of low-fat diet,these people may have seen ameliorations of their health,their blood pressure decreased,their weights go down and so does heart attack rate.
The improvements of life standard also bring troubles to modern Saurians.It may be easier for normal modern Saurians to get as much as possible high-fat food than the ruling classes ancient Saurians and therefore it is quite natural that they will suffer the same diseases as those ancient riches.A low-fat,high-carbohydrate diet must be helpful to see to this condition.。