半导体产业大趋势

ProMos Samsung
Hynix Inotera Infineon
Nanya
Winbond
PowerChip
Source: iSuppli
12
July 09
©2009 Micron Technology, Inc.
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12
DRAM Producers 2009
• • • • • • • • • • • •
July 09
©2009 Micron Technology, Inc.
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1
NAND and DRAM Capex
Source: iSuppli
July 09
©2009 Micron Technology, Inc.
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2
Shrinking Revenue Pressures R&D
OpEx and R&D are generally aligned to revenue
• • • • • • • • • • • •
Elpida
• “Japan's Elpida secures•lifeline with $1.7B aid” - June 2009 • • Micron
• •
ProMos Samsung
• “Hynix to get $965M new • funds, debt rollover” - April 2009• • Hynix • Nanya Inotera • • • • PowerChip
Semiconductor International, Micron
July 09
©2009 Micron Technology, Inc.
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4
Semi: Share for Spending on Equipping Front-end Facilities
By Product Type, 2010
ProMos Samsung
TI Toshiba Winbond
11
July 09
©2009 Micron Technology, Inc.
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11
DRAM Producers 2005
• • • • • • • • • • • • •
Elpida
• • • • • • • • • • • • •
• • Micron • • • • • • • • • •
July 09
©2009 Micron Technology, Inc.
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3
“Bending” of Moore’s Law
200
100 Resolution (nm) 80 60
Logic DRAM NAND
40
Lithography / Economics Device 2000 2005 2010
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9
DRAM Producers 1995
• • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Source: de Dios and Associates
Elpida
• • • • • • • • • • • • •
LG Matsushita Micron Mitsubishi Mosel Vitelic Motorola Nanya NEC Oki Powerchip
Bubble represents size of revenues Bubble represents size SG&A + R&D
• Samsung and Toshiba data reflects only memory business except for EBITDA number
Source: Company Data, Analyst Estimates
Codependency to drive more strategic relationships
July 09 ©2009 Micron Technology, Inc. | 14
DRAM Producers 2009
• • • • • • • • • • • •
Elpida
• • • • • • • • • • • • •
Elpida
• • • • • • • • • • • • •
• • Micron • • • • • • • • • •
ProMos Samsung
Hynix Inotera
Nanya
Winbond
PowerChip
Source: iSuppli
13
July 09
©2009 Micron Technology, Inc.
• • • • • • • • • • • • •
ProMos Samsung Sanyo Sharp TSMC TI Toshiba Vanguard Winbond
Source: de Dios and Associates
9
July 09
©2009 Micron Technology, Inc.
Imec circa 2007, 104 vias per mm2
Scannell, EMC 3D 2007
©2009 Micron Technology, Inc. | 17
Going Green
Micron’s Three Pillars of Energy Management
Generation
ProMos Samsung Sanyo SGS Sharp Signetics TSMC TI Toshiba Vanguard Winbond Zilog SMIC
Source: de Dios and Associates
8
July 09
©2009 Micron Technology, Inc.
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ቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱ
7
Historical DRAM Producers - 1980
• • • • • • • • • • • • • •
AMD AMI AT&T Elpida Eurotechni Fairchild Fujitsu Hynix Hitachi IBM Infineon Intel Intersil Inmos
• • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Source: de Dios and Associates
Elpida
• • • • • • • • • • • • •
Micron Mitsubishi Mosel Vitelic
Hynix
Nanya
Infineon
PowerChip
• • • • • • • • • • • • •
$140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 2006 -$20,000
July 09
>0.35-micron 0.35-micron to 0.16-micron 0.15-micron to 0.13-micron 0.090-micron 0.065-micron <0.045-micron
• • “Taiwan announces creation of TMC” • - March 2009 • • • • • Winbond • •
Sources: iSuppli, Reuters
16
July 09
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16
Accelerating System Integration
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: iSuppli
©2009 Micron Technology, Inc.
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6
Equipment Supplier Consolidation
Top 10 Semi Equipment Supplier Market Share
(Top 10 Suppliers each year vs. the total Semi equipment market)
Hynix Hitachi IBM Infineon
• • • • • • • • • • • • •
ProMos Samsung Sanyo Sharp
TI Toshiba Vanguard Winbond
10
July 09
©2009 Micron Technology, Inc.
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10
DRAM Producers 2000
• • Micron • • • • • • • • • •
ProMos Samsung
Hynix Inotera
Nanya
Winbond
PowerChip
Source: iSuppli
15
July 09
©2009 Micron Technology, Inc.
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15
Government Intervention
Source: SEMI, compiled by Digitimes, July 2009
July 09
©2009 Micron Technology, Inc.
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5
Slowing Logic Migration
Estimated Global Revenue by Semiconductor Process Node (Millions of US Dollars)
• • • • • • • • • • • • • •
ITT LG Matsushita Micron Mitsubishi Mosel Vitelic Mostek Motorola Nanya National NEC NMB/PNX Oki PowerChip
• • • • • • • • • • • • •
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13
Evolving Landscape for Supplier Based Relationships
Semiconductor IDMs & Semi Suppliers (Equipment & Materials)
Fewer players Fewer R&D dollars Slower rollout of new technologies More expensive development costs for new technologies
65% 60% 55% Top 10 Market Share (%) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 Year 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
July 09
©2009 Micron Technology, Inc.
Macro-trends facing the Semiconductor Industry
Mark Durcan
President and C.O.O. Micron Technology
©2009 Micron Technologies, Inc. All rights reserved. Products are warranted only to meet Micron’s production data sheet specifications. Information, products, and/or specifications are subject to change without notice. All information is provided on an “AS IS” basis without warranties of any kind. Dates are estimates only. Drawings are not to scale. Micron and the Micron logo are trademarks of Micron Technology, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
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8
DRAM Producers 1985
• • • • • • • • • • • • • •
AMD AT&T Elpida Eurotechni Fujitsu Hynix Hitachi IBM Infineon Intel Inmos
• • • • • • • • • • • • •
ITT LG Matsushita Micron Mitsubishi Mosel Vitelic Motorola Nanya National NEC Oki Powerchip