田威 海外项目的风险防控

海外项目的风险防控

中信国际合作公司

总经理田威

风险概论风险是以（部分地）管控的

风险概论－风险是可以（部分地）管控的

No construction project is risk free.

Risk can be managed minimized shared transferred or Risk can be managed, minimized, shared, transferred, or accepted. It cannot be ignored.

如果忽视了风险，会怎样？

１）成本增加

２）利润减少或亏损

３）信誉受损，或者直至

４）公司破产

危机（危vs机）？！老子的理论（Risk and uncertainty poses challenges as well as opportunities

poses challenges as well as opportunities）

项目风险

质量及安全

成本管控

进度计划

变更管理

合约及采购 人力资源管理

信息管理

外部影响

如何管控风险

辨认风险（Vision）

Q tif ll i k

评估量化风险（Quantify all risks）

减少影响

执行

监测

项目风险管控对整个公司至关重要

文字记录／书面往来（FIDIC第2.5款vs 第3.3款）

72

7＋7 天vs 2＋2天

员工普遍知晓

内部监控

成本风险

两个可能导致戏剧性变化的因素

物价上涨（调价公式，CPI，PPI）

汇率（现实：人民币升值的压力） 选择什么货币？专业咨询的重要性

主大项目防范风险 Joint Venture业主大项目上防范风险 William Vickrey Theory

The Vickrey Auction The Vickrey Auction (Uniform second (Uniform second--price)

The uniform second The uniform second--price auction is commonly called the Vickrey Auction,named after William Vickrey,winner of Vickrey Auction, named after William Vickrey, winner of

the 1996 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, who classified it in the 1960s. It is a sealed sealed--bid English (ascending--price;vs Dutch auction descending auction (ascending price; vs Dutch auction, descending

price) with an important concept that the highest bidder wins but only pays at the second wins but only pays at the second--highest bid price. Why is the Vickrey Auction significant?Because it is designed is the Vickrey Auction significant? Because it is designed

to induce truthful to induce truthful--revelation ．This variation over the normal bidding procedure is supposed to encourage bidders to bid the largest amount they are willing to pay bidders to bid the largest amount they are willing to pay. Most auctions are first Most auctions are first--price auctions with either open price auctions with either open--outcry or sealed bid format. The winner is the highest bidd d di l th i bid bidder, and correspondingly pays their bid.

z Like the first Like the first--price auction, each bidder is ignorant of open other bids while the bids are sealed (instead of open--other bids while the bids are sealed (instead of open outcried, outcried, NOTE:it is imperative NOTE:it is imperative to seal the bid to seal the bid). But the ). But the item is awarded only to highest bidder at a price equal second to the second--highest bid (or highest unsuccessful bid)to the second highest bid (or highest unsuccessful bid). z

In a sealed In a sealed--bid auction, bidders generally try to shade their bids slightly under their true valuation of the product thereby creating an opportunity to win the product, thereby creating an opportunity to win the

auction and pay less than their valuation (profit auction and pay less than their valuation (profit--oriented). Bidders do this to avoid the problem of i id th t th i f ti “winner ’s curse ”: an idea that the winner of an auction

generally overvalues the product and he will be the final loser. Nonetheless, auction sellers do not wish for l t h d th i bid d h d l d players to shade their bids and have developed

alternative alternative--style auctions (William Vickrey ’s observation and Theory).z In other words, a winner pays less than the highest bid. If, for example, bidder A bids $10, bidder B bids $15, and bidder C offers $20,bidder C ($20)would win,and bidder C offers $20, bidder C ($20) would win,

however he would only pay the price at the second however he would only pay the price at the second--highest bid ($15), namely bidder B.