全球化与区域经济发展

全球化与区域经济发展 Company Document number：WUUT-WUUY-WBBGB-BWYTT-1982GT

全球化与区域经济发展柏兰芝老师

提纲4. 9/25/02

IV. 需求拉动的区域增长理论( Demand-based theory)

1. Export-base theory (North)

2.Tiebout’s response

3.Economic base theory 经济基础理论

pared to Jane Jacobs’ “supply region”

1.Export-base Theory

Context: 战后关心工业化和增长

2) 区域发展必须放在资本主义制度框架（利润极大化，可流动的生产要素）

以美国大西北出口历史为例。

麦/面粉 1868开始到英国/ 1857到日本/亚洲/澳洲

19世纪：一半以上出口

伐木业（Douglas fir）：联系加州的gold rush

1860-1920, flour and lumber accounted for 40-60% of the value of the region’s manufacturing output

不是线性地从subsistence--------------------------- 集中

reduced transport rates

3) 定义export base: collectively exportable commodity of a region.

In the US, many regions stated from 1 or 2 exportable commodities,

And, export base often widened after transport costs has been reduced

--bring income back to the region

--develop diversity

--develop residentiary industry

--external economy

--technological development

--capital: invest in existing export industry

reinforce existing export base, create uneven regional development

4) 增长的机制

增长一定要工业化

The case of Oregon：农业带动的出口也能带动增长

5) So, a region is defined by its development around a common export base.

This makes it economically unified and ties the region’s fortunes together.

6) What will influence the decline of a region Transportation/Technology/Government

2.Tiebout’s response: 1956

1) export base 对小区域比对大区域有用—decided by the scale of a region.

--How to define a region --Not by export base.

--Size matters. The larger a region is, the more it has internal trade.

. export only accounts for a very small portion of US economy

2)short-term . long-run

other sources of regional growth (of income and employment):

business investment, government spending, residential construction, non-economic migration

3)factor endowment: . New Jersey’s coal—有煤不见得就有出口，还要看成本

4)stage theory counts—. America as a colony

5)export base is better to be applied to satellite cities in the suburban fringe

6) a region must divide its energies between residentiary and export activities

North: Reply

1)long run

2) a region’s significance lies in its being a specialized part of the whole

so, export base is useful to define a region

*长江三角洲，珠江三角洲是区域吗有export base 可用来定义吗

3)residentiary 的发展仍需外力，即出口。（是吗）

Tiebout 再回应

1)强调other endogenous variables

2)强调某种程度的closed economy

no causal mechanism between regional development and exporting capacity.

Not all export economy produces diversity—North is misleading

3. economic base theory 经济基础理论

-basic sector: export; engine of the local economy. . Boeing

-non-basic (local) sector: e. g. grocery, dry-cleaning, local governmentetc.

--base multiplier基础乘数: Total / Basic (employment)

. B 20,000

NB 40,000

T 60,000

Base ratio (B/NB) = 1:2

Base multiplier (T/B) = 3

参考

简言之，新的产业投资进入，会有新的地方需求产生

--policy implication

改良出口所需的条件，包括运输，生产技术并降低劳动成本（压低工资）

这个快乐的故事是这样的：政府投资—增长过程—产业多元化—收入增加—地方储蓄增加—投资增加—劳力移入—形成新的出口产业

--critique

1)理论上不完整; 任何外来投资，即使是指向内需市场，仍可以带动区域的乘数效果。

2)到底如何区分基础产业和非基础产业服务业就是非基础产业吗

3)对增加的就业只看就业量，但每一种就业的质不一样，有些工作附加价值高，有些

低。

4)区域外的需求如何形成（动力）

5)对供给持无限弹性的看法，可以完全对需求做出反应。--是这样吗