中国汽车行业产能过剩问题解析

中国汽车行业产能过剩问题解析

内容摘要

在中国的汽车市场，由于对汽车业的轻率投资，到2015年，中国的汽车年产能将达到3100万辆，中国将面临严重的汽车行业产能过剩问题。严重的产能过剩会导致市场恶性竞争、企业经济效益下滑、工厂开工不足等一系列问题。中国汽车产业年产量达到3100万辆后，将接近当前国内市场规模（今年为1600万到1700万辆）的两倍，倘若理性分析起来，市场上的原油价格也是一个增长趋势，根据去年中国车市1360多万辆的销量，中国要依据2000多万吨的原油进口，如果2015年真的如规划达到3000多万辆的产能，那么，6000多万吨的原油又从何而来？2009年，中国成功以1364万辆的新车销售跻身全球第一大市场后，国内汽车集团的信心爆棚，纷纷制定规模庞大的产能扩充计划。但是，规划产能不能依据“大胆的想象”，要在客观现实的基础上，中国汽车市场发展迅速，但是在短期内也不会承受这样一个产能。汽车发展不是一朝一夕之事，政府鼓励汽车企业的兼并重组，同时鼓励车企走向海外，面对发展上百年的成熟的汽车企业，中国的自主品牌面临着很大的压力与挑战，还是应该对汽车生产企业的投资有新的规划并且对每个项目进行摸底，掌握产能整体规划情况，及时跟进以防范需求波动下大规模进行产业投资产生的泡沫。

关键词：汽车行业；产能过剩；原因

Abstract

In the Chinese auto market, head-long investment by the car industry would leave China with a big overcapacity problem by 2015 – when capacity reaches 3100 millions vehicles per year. Serious overcapacity will lead to negative market competitiveness, a loss in enterprise efficiency, factory stoppages and other problems. A Chinese car industry producing 3100 millions vehicles would be nearly twice the size of the current domestic market – estimated at 1600-1700 millions this year .If the rational analysis, the market price of crude oil is also a growth trend, according to last year China car sales of about 1360 millions cars, Chinese imports on the basis of the about 2000 millions tons of crude oil in 2015, if really such as planning to reach about 3000 millions units of capacity, then, about 6000 millions tons of crude oil and where does it come from? In 2009, China success with sales of 1364 millions vehicles in theworld after the first big market, the domestic automobile group, confident, have developed large capacity expansion plan. However, the planning capacity not according to "imagination", should be based on objective reality, China automobile market is developing rapidly, but in the short term will not sustain such a capacity.Automobile development is not a short duration of time things, merger and reorganization of the government encourages automobile enterprises, and encourageenterprises to overseas, in the face of hundreds of years of development mature automobile enterprise, China independent brand is facing

great pressure and challenges, or should the automobile production enterprises investment new planning and mapping for each project, master production planning, timely follow-up to guard against fluctuations in the demand for large-scale industrial investment bubble.

Key Words：the automobile industry; Excess Capacity; Reason

目录

一、绪论 (1)

二、发展的历史背景 (1)

三、汽车行业的产能是否过剩 (2)

四、我国汽车产能过剩的影响 (2)

（一）正面的影响 (2)

（二）负面的影响 (3)

五、我国汽车行业出现产能过剩的特征 (3)

（一）利润增幅下降，亏损增加 (3)

（二）库存压力增加 (4)

（三）正在膨胀的汽车拟建、改扩建项目 (4)

六、我国汽车产能过剩的对策 (4)

（一）将汽车产能问题与兼并重组统筹规划 (5)

（二）严格执行产业市场准入标准 (6)

（三）提高投资准入的门槛 (7)

（四）充分利用汽车产能充分运用国际通行规则发展和保护自己 (7)

（五）加大出口并且往高端走加大出口，将汽车卖往全世界，这是最简单的方法，但可行性不高 (7)

七、解决产能过剩的建议 (8)

（一）企业重组 (8)

（二）强化标准 (8)