中国汽车产业发展趋势2002年

中国汽车产业发展趋势一、（全球角度）汽车产业全球化的趋势及汽车需求增长的国际格局汽车产业的全球化集中体现在特征上：一是汽车产业链，包括投资、生产、采购、销售及售后服务、研发等主要环节的日益全球性配置。

例如，过去跨国公司在本国建立、保持研发机构，对于目标国市场采取复制产品的方式进行投资，而现在则采取将各个功能活动和能力分配给全球市场的方式。

由此导致了新的专业化分工协作模式的出现，特别是整车装配与零部件企业之间呈现分离趋势，零部件的跨国公司越来越多，零部件企业与整车装配企业之间以合同为纽带的网络型组织结构日趋明显。

整车制造企业零部件的全球采购以及零部件工业的国际化，模糊了汽车产品的“国家特征”，使其成为了典型的全球化产品。

二是巨型汽车企业之间的大规模重组，形成了“6+3”的格局，9大汽车集团的产量已占世界汽车产量80％以上。

汽车企业在全球的大规模重组实质性地改变了传统的资源配置方式、产业竞争模式和产业组织结构，并使各国特别是发展中国家以往的汽车产业发展战略和相关政策面临严峻挑战。

从汽车产销量的地理分布看，欧美发达国家，普遍出现了严重的市场疲软，而发展中国家，特别是亚洲国家的形势看好。

在亚洲，韩国、泰国和中国等以其良好的成长性和巨大的潜力，继续成为世界汽车市场的亮点。

据预测，从2002年到2010年，全球汽车产量将增加1100万辆，亚太地区将新增7百万辆以上，占到65％，而其中将有一半来自中国。

二、近年来中国汽车产业规模和市场结构变化中国汽车工业经过40多年的发展，已经成为国民经济的重要产业。

随着经济发展水平的不断提高和轿车开始进入家庭，中国已经成为世界上增长最为迅速的市场，对全球汽车产业产生的巨大影响力。

2002年全年累计生产汽车325辆，比2001年同期增长38．49％，销售汽车324．8万辆，比2001年同期增涨37．1％，完成工业增加值1515亿元，同比增长60.94％。

汽车消费成为拉动2002年经济增长的主要力量。

具有法人地位的汽车生产厂有120余家。

2002年一汽、东风、上汽等3大汽车集团生产集中度为57％，比2001年提高了8个百分点；中国轿车由于企业进入和竞争激烈，销量前3位的上海大众、一汽大众和上海通用占总销量的53．4％，比2001年前3名的市场份额下降了6．8个百分点；其他各类汽车的生产集中度总体来讲较之2001年也有一定程度的下降。

就单个企业规模而言，中国汽车工业的前4名一汽、东风、上汽、长安等4大集团汽车生产能力在30万--60万辆之间，规模经济效益开始显现。

尽管如此，与世界级的汽车生产企业相比较，中国汽车工业企业的规模仍然偏小。

市场激烈竞争带来的直接影响，一是促使汽车价格持续下降，最终达到合理价位；二是竞争领域不断扩展，不仅包括产品价格、质量、性能，而且涉及市场营销、售后服务、市场应变能力等各个方面；三是技术进步、产品研发将成为竞争焦点。

通过充分而有效的竞争推进企业优胜劣汰，势不可挡，并将成为推动整个产业健康发展的主导力量。

三、中国汽车工业市场空间、投资机会与盈利前景预测未来时期随着影响中国汽车需求市场的价格、居民收入和消费结构、汽车信贷、消费环境的改善，特别是跨国公司主导下的汽车合资企业不断在全球同步推出适应市场需求的新产品，将对未来市场起到巨大的推动作用。

预计今后10年—15年中国将成长成为全球最大汽车市场，年销量达到1700万辆，汽车保有量超过1亿辆。

近年来，跨国公司加快了进军中国市场的步伐，推动了国内汽车业新一轮的兼并重组热潮。

预计今后跨国公司在中国的角逐将更加激烈，国内几大汽车集团依托跨国公司迅速扩张，将进一步加速各类整车和零部件生产企业，特别是中小企业的兼并重组，市场格局剧烈变化，投资并购机会将不断涌现。

目前，我国汽车行业的整体利润率高于国际水平，随着产品价格的下降，这极可能降低行业利润率，但在价格下降的同时，成本、费用也有较大下降空间，利润总额等总量指标可能保持，甚至有可能提高。

国家进一步降低一些税费，将为行业内大部分企业提供降价空间，如果产销规模能随降价得到有效扩大，规模效应将发挥出来，会使行业效益保持在较好水平。

同时，零部件进口关税的下降，将使一些厂家进口成本有所下降，对采用进口部件较多的中高档产品影响更加明显。

我国汽车行业中的轿车工业发展最为迅速，不仅产量的增长高于整个汽车行业产品产量的增长，技术进步的步伐也大大加快。

从全行业来看，轿车、汽车零部件及配件企业的盈利能力处于行业领先水平，具有更高的投资回报率。

四、中国汽车产业的发展趋势和产业政策取向1．中国汽车产业的发展趋势(1)预计今后10到15年中国将成为世界最大的汽车消费国。

国际经验表明，人均收入水平与汽车普及率存在显著的相关关系。

中国2002年的人均GDP是7972元，按官方汇率计算折合910多美元，而按世界银行测算的购买力平价方法则接近4000美元。

在一些发达城市、东南沿海相当多的地区，人均GDP按官方汇率计算也达到四五千美元，呈现明显的即将进入汽车社会的特征。

预计中国将在未来10年--15年成长成为年销量达到1700万辆的全球最大汽车市场。

(2)汽车的生产和消费将在未来相当长时期成为拉动中国经济增长的重要力量。

汽车产业是波及范围最广和波及效果最大的产业。

对钢铁、有色金属、橡胶、塑料、玻璃、涂料等原材料工业，铸、锻、热、焊、冲压、机加工、油漆、电镀、试验、检测等设备制造业，机械、电子、电器、化工、建材、轻工、纺织等配套产品和零部件，公路建设、能源工业、交通运输业和服务业等，都会产生巨大需求，从而推动这些产业的发展。

预计今后10年每年GDP增量，有1／7至1／6由汽车产业提供。

(3)中国有望成为世界汽车的制造中心。

中国已初步形成相对齐全的汽车工业生产体系。

这是中国汽车产业新发展的起点。

此外，中国发展汽车产业还有如下优势：一是大国的市场优势；二是劳动力成本优势；三是具有较强的制造业配套能力。

预计在今后10到15年，中国有望成为世界重要的汽车制造基地之一。

2．中国今后发展汽车产业的政策取向(1)创造积极而充分的、有利于提高汽车产业国际竞争力的国内竞争环境。

应鼓励各种类型企业特别是民营企业的进入，积极吸引外商直接投资特别是跨国公司直接投资，给予不同性质的企业以平等的市场竞争机会，通过优胜劣汰的市场竞争过程，形成强有力的市场竞争结构，带动我国汽车产业和企业国际竞争力的根本提高。

(2)改制、重组是新时期我国汽车产业组织的基本政策取向。

在开放、竞争的基础上，推动中国汽车企业的改制与重组。

在改制过程中，要采取多种方式解决普遍存在的企业办社会、人员过多、债务负担重、社会保障体系不健全等历史遗留问题，推进企业产权的多元化，建立有效的公司治理机制。

企业重组可以在以下方面重点推进：一是整合汽车资源，以增量盘活存量，提高汽车工业资产利用率；二是进一步加强与汽车跨国公司的多方面合作；三是推动国有企业与非国有企业之间的合作；四是对不同类型的汽车产品采取不同的重组战略；五是在强调放松进入限制的同时，要大力排除退出障碍；六是积极利用资本市场推动产业重组。

(3)有所为、有所不为。

在开放中逐步融入全球汽车制造分工体系。

改变汽车产业链配置主要依赖国内市场和国内资源的思路，分阶段地逐步融入汽车产业的全球采购、制造、销售、研发体系，并逐步向高段领域挺进。

在整车上有进有出，集中力量发展具有市场和资源优势的部分产品；要充分利用中国市场的多层次性以生产中低级别的轿车作为未来时期汽车产业的战略重点，逐步实现规模优势和成本优势，在满足国内市场的同时占领周边发展中国家；同时要利用现有的劳动力优势，扶植国内有条件的零部件厂商要尽快向全球供应商的角色转变。

China's auto industry development trendA, automobile industry globalization trend and automobile demand growth international patternAuto industry globalization embodied in characteristics: one is the auto industry chain, including investment, production, procurement, sales and after-sales service, research and development and other main link increasingly global configuration. For example, the multinational companies in their establishment, keep r&d institution, to the target market take copy product approach to investing, and now are taking will each functional activities and ability to global market distribution way. This has led to new specialization, especially the emergence of cooperative mode between enterprises with parts of vehicle assembly, parts of separation trend appears more and more multinational enterprise and vehicle assembly components in the contract as a link between enterprises of network organizational structure has become increasingly evident. The vehicle manufacturing enterprise parts of the global sourcing and the internationalization of spare parts industry, which blurs automotive products "national characteristics," has to typical globalization products. Two giant car between enterprise's large-scale restructuring, and formed a "6 + 3" pattern, 9 automobile group automobile production of world output has more than 80%. Car companies in the world of large-scale restructuring substantially changed the traditional resource allocation methods, industrial competitive mode and industrial organization structure, and allows countries, especially developing countries before the auto industry development strategy and relevantpolicy is facing serious challenges.The geographical distribution of car output from view, euramerican developed country, generally there was a serious weakness in the market and developing countries, especially the situation in Asia countries. In Asia, South Korea, Thailand and China with its good growth and the huge potential, continue to be the highlight of the world automobile market. According to the forecast, from 2002 to 2010, global auto output will increase 11 million vehicles, the region will add more than 7 million cars, or 65 percent, and which will have half from China.Second, in recent years China's automobile industry scale and market structure changesChina's auto industry after 40 years of development, has become an important industry of the national economy. With the development of economic levels rising and cars began to move into homes, China has become the world's most rapidly growing market, global car industry produce to the great influence. Annual accumulative total production car in 2002 than in 2001 vehicles, 325 38.49% growth from selling auto 324.8 million vehicles, than the same period in 2001, pool 37.1%, complete industrial added value, year-on-year growth of his pupils about 1515 billion yuan 60.94%. Automobile consumption has become pull 2002 the main force of economic growth.The legal person status of more than 120 auto manufacturers. In 2002, faw, dongfeng, saic wait for three major automotive group (57%) production concentration than in 2001, up 8 percentage points; Chinese car because enterprise enters and competition is intense, sales of the top 3 places in Shanghai Volkswagen, faw Volkswagen and Shanghai gm of total sales than 2001 years ago single-month three market share fell 6.8 percentage points; Other kinds of car general production concentration than 2001 also have certain degree of decline. Just a single enterprise scale, China's automotive industry's top four faw, dongfeng, saic, changan automobile production on four big group in 30 million -- ability between 60 million vehicles, scale economic benefit began to appear. Nonetheless, the automobile production enterprise with world-class compared, China's automotive industry enterprise's remained small.Fierce market competition, a direct result of the price of cars is to make continued to decline, and finally achieve reasonable price; 2 it is competitive field, including not only expanded product price, quality, performance, but also related to marketing, after-sale service, market strain capacity, etc; Three is technological progress and productresearch and development will be the focus of competition. Through the full and effective competition of enterprises, unstoppable, and generally will be pushing the healthy growth of the industry's leading power.Third, China's automotive industry market space, investment opportunities and profit outlookFuture period with the influence of Chinese auto demand market price and income and consumption structure, auto loan, the improvement in consumption environment, especially transnational company leading the car under joint venture unceasingly in the global synchronous launch of new products to meet market demand for future market, will greatly push forward. The following 10 years - 15 years China will become the world's largest car market, the annual sales of $17 million vehicles, more than 1 million cars auto possession.In recent years, multinational companies to speed up the pace of the foray into China market, promote the domestic auto industry a new round of m&a boom. Multinational companies in China in the future is expected to take place more intense, the domestic several big automotive group relying on multinational company is rapid and outspread, will further accelerate all kinds of vehicle and parts production enterprises, especially smes, market structure of m&a drastic change, investment opportunities will emerge. MergerAt present, China's auto industry's overall profitability higher than international level, as the price of a product, which is likely to reduce down in price, but industry profit rate dropping, costs, expenses also have larger space, total profit dropped gross index such as likely to maintain, there might even improve. Countries further reduce some taxes, will provide for the majority of enterprises within the industry production and price space, if price is effectively with size can expand, scale effect will play out, can make the industry maintain a good level of efficiency. Meanwhile, parts of the import tariffs dropped, will make some manufacturers to import costs declined, imported parts more upscale product effect more apparent. The car industry in China's automobile industry most rapid development, not only output growth above the whole car industry product output growth, technology progress also greatly accelerated. Judging from the industry, cars, auto parts and accessories enterprise profitability in industry leading level, and has a higher return on investment.Fourth, the development trend of China's auto industry and the industrial policy orientation1. The development trend of China's automobile industry(1) is expected in the next 10 to 15 years, China will become the world's largest car shoppers. International experience shows that per capita income level and automobile penetration rate significantly correlated. China's per capita GDP in 2002, according to official 7972 yuan is the exchange rates more than $910 converted according to the world bank, and the PPP methods measuring is close to $4,000. In some developed city, southeast coastal quite a number of areas, according to the official exchange rate per capita GDP also reached four or five thousand dollars, calculated the obvious characteristics of going into the car society. Expect China will in the next 10 years -- 15 years in annual sales growth to 17m become the world's largest car market bus.(2) of automobile production and consumption in the future will be pulled very long period of China's economic growth important strength. The car industry is the most widely affected the scope of the biggest industry and spread effect. For steel, nonferrous metal, rubber, plastic, glass, coating and other raw materials industry, casting, forging, hot, welding, stamping, machining, paint, electroplating, test and inspection equipment manufacturing industry, machinery, electronics, electrical appliances, chemical industry, building materials, light industry, textile and other supporting products and components, highway construction, energy industry, transportation industry and service industry and so on, can produce huge demand, so as to promote the development of the industry. Each year are expected to the next 10 years, have 1 / GDP increment by seven to 1/6 provide auto industry.(3) China is expected to become the world automobile manufacturing center. China has initially formed relatively complete automobile industrial production system. This is the new development of China's automobile industry begins. In addition, the development of the car industry in China and the following advantages: one is the power market advantages; 2 it is labor cost advantage; Three is strong manufacturing supporting ability. Expected over the next 10 to 15 years, China is expected to become the world's important auto manufacturing one of base.2. The future development of China automobile industry policy orientation(1) create positive and full, to improve the international competitiveness of the automotive industry domestic competition environment. Should encourage various type enterprise especially private enterprise's into, and actively attract foreign direct investment,especially transnational corporations, direct investment, given the different natures of the enterprise with equal opportunity, through market competition market competition of the survival of the fittest, forming process the powerful market competition structure, leading enterprises and auto industry in our country the fundamental improve the international competitiveness.(2) restructuring, reorganization is a new period of China's automobile industry organization basic policy orientation. In the open, competitive, and on the basis of Chinese auto enterprise restructuring push with restructuring. In the restructuring, to adopt various ways to solve widespread enterprise do social, personnel overmuch, debt burden, social security system and the imperfect problems left over by history, promote enterprise property of diversification, the establishment of effective corporate governance mechanism. Corporate restructuring can focus on in the following respects: one is the integration with incremental automotive resources, deposit quantity and improve automobile industrial assets utilization; Second, further strengthen and automobile multinationals all-round cooperation; Three is to promote state-owned enterprise and the cooperation between non-state-owned enterprises; The fourth is to different types of automotive products adopt different restructuring strategy; Five is in emphasizing relax into the limit at the same time, want to eliminate exit barrier; Six is actively use capital market promotion industrial restructuring.(3) something to do, it. In the opening process gradually into the global automotive manufacturing division of labor system. Change the car industry chain configuration basically rely on domestic market and domestic resources by stages, the idea to gradually into the global auto industry procurement, manufacturing, marketing, research and development system, and gradually to high segment field advance. There are in the vehicle into a and concentrate on developing a market and resource advantage part products; To make full use of the Chinese market with more than ZhongDiJi other car production liang.2006.stages future period auto industry as a strategic emphasis, gradually realize scale advantages and cost advantages, and to meet the domestic market and capture peripheral developing countries; Simultaneously must use existing labor advantage, foster domestic conditional parts manufacturers will soon to change of the role of suppliers around the world.。