Crystal Ball实验操作过程

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神奇的水晶结晶实验

神奇的水晶结晶实验
水晶结晶实验是一种既有趣又神奇的实验，通过简单的材料和操作，就能观察到水晶在慢慢生长的过程中产生美丽的结晶。

本文将介绍如
何进行水晶结晶实验，并解释实验背后的科学原理。

首先，准备实验所需的材料。

你需要烧杯、布棉线、饱和的硼酸溶液、清洁透明的玻璃瓶、食盐和糖。

将烧杯放在温水中，加热直到水
温达到80°C。

然后将饱和的硼酸溶液倒入玻璃瓶中，加入少量的食盐
和糖，用布棉线悬挂在溶液中央，让线头轻轻接触底部。

接着，将瓶子放在室温下静置。

随着时间的推移，你将会看到水晶
开始在棉线上生长。

这种美丽的结晶是由于溶液中过饱和度过高，导
致结晶物质沉积在布棉线上形成晶体。

有趣的是，你可以根据自己的
喜好在实验过程中添加不同颜色的食用色素或荧光粉，让水晶结晶呈
现出绚丽多彩的效果。

此外，水晶结晶实验还能帮助我们理解一些化学原理。

在实验中，
我们可以观察到溶液中溶质随着温度的变化而溶解度发生变化，从而
影响到结晶的生长速度和形态。

此外，通过实验我们也可以了解到过
饱和度对结晶生长的影响，以及晶体的形成过程。

总的来说，水晶结晶实验是一种简单而有趣的科学实验，既可以锻
炼我们的动手能力，又能增进对化学原理的理解。

希望通过这篇文章
的介绍，能让更多的人对水晶结晶实验产生兴趣，并亲自动手尝试这
个神奇的实验。

风险管理软件CrystalBall使用指导

风险管理软件C r y s t a l B a l l使用指导 Ting Bao was revised on January 6, 20021Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal BallTo run a simulation using Crystal Ball:1. Setup SpreadsheetBuild a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure ., profit) in terms of the inputs (random or not). For random inputs, just enter any number.2. Define Assumptions—., random variablesDefine which cells are random, and what distribution they should follow.3. Define Forecast—., output or performance measureDefine which cell(s) you are interested in forecasting (typically the performance measure, ., profit).4. Choose Number of TrialsSelect the number of trials. If you would later like to generate the Sensitivity Analysis chart, choose “Sensitivity Analysis” under Options in Run Preferences.5. Run SimulationRun the simulation. If you would like to change parameters and re-run the simulation, you should “reset” the simulation (click on the “Reset Simulation” button on the toolbar or in the Run menu) first.6. View ResultsThe forecast window showing the results of the simulation appears automatically after (or during) the simulation. Many different results are available (frequency chart, cumulative chart, statistics, percentiles, sensitivity analysis, and trend chart). The results can be copied into the worksheet.Crystal Ball Toolbar:Define Define Run Start Reset Forecast Trend Assumptions Forecast Preferences Simulation Simulation Window ChartWalton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal BallRecall the Walton Bookstore example: It is August, and they must decide how many of next year’s nature calendars to order. Each calendar costs the bookstore $ and is sold for $10. After February, all unsold calendars are returned to the publisher for a refund of $ per calendar. Suppose Walton predicts demand will be somewhere between 100 and 300 (discrete uniform).Demand = d ~ Uniform[100, 300]Order Quantity = Q (decision variable)Revenue = $10 * Min(Q, d)Cost = $ * QRefund = $ * Max(Q–d, 0)Profit = Revenue – Cost + RefundStep #1 (Setup Spreadsheet)Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal BallStep #2 (Define Assumptions —., random variables)— color code (blue):and click on the “Define Assumptions” button in toolbar (or in the Cell menu):Select type of distribution:Provide parameters of distributions:Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal BallStep #3 (Define Forecast—., output)click on the “Define Forecast” button in toolbar (or in the Cell menu),and fill in the Define Forecast dialogue box.Step #4 (Choose Number of Trials)Click on the “Run Preferences” button in toolbar (or in the Run menu):and select the number of trials to run.Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal BallStep #5 (Run Simulation)Click on the “Start Simulation” button in toolbar (or Run in the Run menu):Step #6 (View Results)The results of the simulation can be viewed in a variety of different ways (frequency chart, cumulative chart, statistics, and percentiles). Choosedifferent options under the View menu in the forecast window.The results can be copied into a worksheet or Word document (choose Copy under the Edit menu in the simulation output window.Using Trend Charts to Find the Impact of Order Quantity on Potential ProfitDefine several forecast cells (G14:G18) for several possible order quantities (Q=100, 150, 200, 250, 300). Use the same random order quantity for each to compare them more equally ., one assumption cell for demand—C14—with the rest set equal to C14).After running the simulation, choose “Open Trend Chart” in the Run menu.This chart gives “certainty bands” for the forecast cells. 10% of the time, the project duration will fall within the inner band (light blue), 25% of the time within the 2nd band (red), 50% of the time within the third band (green), and 90% of the time within the outside band (dark blue).Project Management—Global OilGlobal Oil is planning to move their credit card operation to Des Moines, Iowa from their home office in Dallas. The move involves many different divisions within the company. Real estate must select one of three available office sites. Personnel has to determine which employees from Dallas will move, how many new employees to hire, and who will train them. The systems group and treasurer’s office must organize the new operating procedure and make financial arrangements. The architects will have to design the interior space, and oversee needed structural improvements. Each site is an existing building with sufficient open space, but office partitions, computer facilities, furnishings, and so on, must all be provided.A complicating factor is that there is an interdependence of activities. In other words, some parts of the project cannot be started until other parts are completed. For example, Global cannot construct the interior of an office before it has been designed. Neither can it hire new employees until it has determined its personnel requirements.The necessary activities and their necessary predecessors (due to interdependence) are listed below. Three estimates are made for the completion time of each activity—the minimum time, most likely time, and maximum time.Start EndGlobal Oil Simulation with Crystal BallStep #1 (Setup Spreadsheet)Step #2 (Define Assumptions—., random variables)Each of the random activity times (B, C, D, E, G, and I) is assumed to follow the triangular distribution.Global Oil Simulation with Crystal BallStep #3 (Define Forecast—., output)Cell J15 is the forecast cell:Step #4 (Choose Number of Trials)500 trials were run. In addition, Sensitivity Analysis was enabled in the Options of the Run Preferences dialogue box. This allows for the generation of sensitivity analysis results later.Step #5 (Run Simulation)Step #6 (View Results)Additional Results Available with Crystal BallSlide the triangles below the histograms to determine the probability that the output (project duration) is less than a certain value ., a deadline), greater than a certain value, or between any two values (by sliding both triangles).Alternatively, you can type in values for the lower bound or upper bound to determine the probability. You can also type in a probability (in “Certainty”), and it will determine the range that has that probability.There is a 79% chance the project will be completed within 150 days.There is a % chance that the project will take more than 160 days.Sensitivity ChartChoose “Open Sensitivity Chart” in the Run menu. Note that this chart isonly available if you selected the “Sensitivity Analysis” option under Run Preferences. This chart gives an indication as to which random variables(activity times) have the greatest impact on the output cell (projectcompletion time).followed by activity D, C, I, and B. Variability in activity G has almost no impact.Fitting a DistributionCrystal Ball can be used to “fit” a distribution to data.The following data has been collected for the previous 100 phone calls to a mail-order house:(80 rows have been hidden)Fitting Data to a DistributionUsing Crystal Ball to fit data to a distribution1. Select a spreadsheet cell.2. Choose Define Assumption.3. Click the Fit button, then select the source of the fitted data.4. Click the Next button, then select the distributions to try tofit.5. Click OK.Interarrival TimeService Time。

风险管理软件crystalball使用指导

Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal Ball®To run a simulation using Crystal Ball®:1. Setup SpreadsheetBuild a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure ., profit) in terms of the inputs (random or not). For random inputs, just enter any number.2. Define Assumptions—., random variablesDefine which cells are random, and what distribution they should follow.3. Define Forecast—., output or performance measureDefine which cell(s) you are interested in forecasting (typically the performance measure, ., profit).4. Choose Number of TrialsSelect the number of trials. If you would later like to generatethe Sensitivity Analysis chart, choose “Sensitivity Analysis” under Options in Run Preferences.5. Run SimulationRun the simulation. If you would like to change parameters and re-run the simulation, you should “reset” the simulation (click on the “Reset Simulation” button on the toolbar or in the Run menu) first.6. View ResultsThe forecast window showing the results of the simulation appears automatically after (or during) the simulation. Many different results are available (frequency chart, cumulative chart, statistics, percentiles, sensitivity analysis, and trend chart). The results can be copied into the worksheet.Crystal Ball Toolbar:Define Define Run Start Reset Forecast TrendAssumptions Forecast Preferences Simulation Simulation Window ChartWalton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball®Recall the Walton Bookstore example: It is August, and they must decide how many of next year’s nature calendars to order. Each calendar costs the bookstore $ and is sold for $10. After February, all unsold calendars are returned to the publisher for a refund of $ per calendar. Suppose Walton predicts demand will be somewhere between 100 and 300 (discrete uniform).Demand = d ~ Uniform[100, 300]Order Quantity = Q (decision variable)Revenue = $10 * Min(Q, d)Cost = $ * QRefund = $ * Max(Q–d, 0)Profit = Revenue – Cost + RefundStep #1 (Setup Spreadsheet)Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball ® Step #2 (Define Assumptions —., random variables)Select the cell that contains the random variable (B17) — color code (blue):and click on the “Define Assumptions” button in toolbar (or in the Cell menu):Select type of distribution:Provide parameters of distributions:Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball®Step #3 (Define Forecast—., output)Select the cell that contains the output variable to forecast (F17):click on the “Define Forecast” but ton in toolbar (or in the Cell menu),and fill in the Define Forecast dialogue box.Step #4 (Choose Number of Trials)Click on the “Run Preferences” button in toolbar (or in the Run menu):and select the number of trials to run.Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball®Step #5 (Run Simulation)Click on the “Start Simulation” button in toolbar (or Run in the Run menu):Step #6 (View Results)The results of the simulation can be viewed in a variety of different ways (frequency chart, cumulative chart, statistics, and percentiles). Choose different options under the View menu in the forecast window.The results can be copied into a worksheet or Word document (choose Copy under the Edit menu in the simulation output window.Using Trend Charts to Find the Impact of Order Quantity on Potential ProfitDefine several forecast cells (G14:G18) for several possible order quantities (Q=100, 150, 200, 250, 300). Use the same random order quantity for each to compare them more equally ., one assumption cell for demand—C14—with the rest set equal to C14).After running the simulation, choose “Open Trend Chart” in the Run menu. This chart gives “certainty bands” for the forecast cells. 10% of the time, the project duration will fall within the inner band (light blue), 25% of the time within the 2nd band (red), 50% of the time within the third band (green), and 90% of the time within the outside band (dark blue).Project Management—Global OilGlobal Oil is planning to move their credit card operation to Des Moines, Iowa from their home office in Dallas. The move involves many different divisions within the company. Real estate must select one of three available office sites. Personnel has to determine which employees from Dallas will move, how many new employees to hire, and who will train them. The systems group and treasurer’s office must organize the new operating procedure and make financial arrangements. The architects will have to design the interior space, and oversee needed structural improvements. Each site is an existing building with sufficient open space, but office partitions, computer facilities, furnishings, and so on, must all be provided.A complicating factor is that there is an interdependence of activities. In other words, some parts of the project cannot be started until other parts are completed. For example, Global cannot construct the interior of an office before it has been designed. Neither can it hire new employees until it has determined its personnel requirements.The necessary activities and their necessary predecessors (due to interdependence) are listed below. Three estimates are made for the completion time of each activity—the minimum time, most likely time, and maximum time.StartEndGlobal Oil Simulation with Crystal Ball®Step #1 (Setup Spreadsheet)Step #2 (Define Assumptions—., random variables)Each of the random activity times (B, C, D, E, G, and I) is assumed to follow the triangular distribution.Global Oil Simulation with Crystal Ball®Step #3 (Define Forecast—., output)Cell J15 is the forecast cell:Step #4 (Choose Number of Trials)500 trials were run. In addition, Sensitivity Analysis was enabled in the Options of the Run Preferences dialogue box. This allows for the generation of sensitivity analysis results later.Step #5 (Run Simulation)Step #6 (View Results)Additional Results Available with Crystal Ball®Slide the triangles below the histograms to determine the probability that the output (project duration) is less than a certain value ., a deadline), greater than a certain value, or between any two values (by sliding both triangles).Alternatively, you can type in values for the lower bound or upper bound to determine the probability. You can also type in a probability (in “Certainty”), and it will determine the range that has that probability.There is a 79% chance the project will be completed within 150 days. There is a % chance that the project will take more than 160 days.Sensitivity ChartChoose “Open Sensitivity Chart” in the Run menu. Note that thischart is only available if y ou selected the “Sensitivity Analysis” option under Run Preferences. This chart gives an indication as to which random variables (activity times) have the greatest impact on the output cell (project completion time).Variability in activity E has the greatest impact on overall project duration, followed by activity D, C, I, and B. Variability in activityG has almost no impact.Fitting a DistributionCrystal Ball can be used to “fit” a distribution to data.The following data has been collected for the previous 100 phone calls to a mail-order house:(80 rows have been hidden)Fitting Data to a DistributionUsing Crystal Ball® to fit data to a distribution1. Select a spreadsheet cell.2. Choose Define Assumption.3. Click the Fit button, then select the source of the fitteddata.4. Click the Next button, then select the distributions to try tofit.5. Click OK.Interarrival TimeService Time。

Crystall_Ball模拟软件

实验次数均值中数众数标准差方差偏度(描述变量取值分布对称性的统计量) 峰度(描述变量取值分布形态陡缓程度的统计量) 变异系数平均标准误差
4 示例－费瑞迪报童问题
通过前面的模拟，设定了弗瑞迪每天《金融日报》的定购数量为60份，因为这个定购量是一个能够满足需求又不会剩余大量未出售报纸的一个合理折中值
然而通过目前的模拟，还不能说明60是否是最大化其日均利润的最优定购量。利用Crystal Ball软件中的OptQuest最优化模型可以搜索最佳定购量。
4 示例－费瑞迪报童问题
用决策表制定决策
在40到70之间的哪个订购量能够最大化每天的平均利润呢？比较合理的做法是试验订购量的可能值的各个样本，如 40,45,…,70。
4 示例－费瑞迪报童问题
定义预测单元格：计算机模拟的电子表格模型并没有包括目
标单元格，但是预测单元格可以实现这一作用。定义预测单元格的步骤：
（1）选中一个单元格；（2）单击Crystal Ball工具条中的Define Forecast按钮，从而弹出
定义预测对话框（如图8-14所示）（3）这个对话框可以用来输入一个名字标签，并且定义预测单元格的
3 Crystal Ball工具条
Define Define
Run Start
Reset
Forecast Trend
Assumptions Forecast Preferences Simulation Simulation Windows Chart
4 示例－费瑞迪报童问题
问题描述
成本数据
每份报纸成本费用1.50美元售价2.50美元未出售的报纸退款0.50美元
第三步对话框用来制定决策表的选项。第一个输入方框记录了对于每一个决策变量的值所要运行模拟的次数。Crystal Ball会在定义决策变量对话框所制定的范围内平均分布数值。对于弗瑞迪报童问题，数值的范围是40到70，在第三步对话框中输入数字7 就会选择40、45、50、55、60、65、70这七个订单量的数值进行模拟。最后一步就是单击Start按钮。

crystal ball使用指导

crystal ball使用指导Crystal Ball使用指导Crystal Ball是一种常用的预测和决策支持工具，它基于蒙特卡洛仿真技术，可以对不确定性进行建模和分析。

下面将介绍一些使用Crystal Ball的指导，帮助您更好地利用这一工具进行预测和决策。

一、数据准备在使用Crystal Ball之前，首先要准备好相应的数据。

这些数据可以是历史数据、统计数据或者是专家意见。

确保数据的准确性和完整性非常重要，因为这些数据将直接影响到Crystal Ball的分析结果。

二、建立模型在Crystal Ball中，模型是指对问题进行描述和建模的过程。

模型的建立需要根据具体问题的特点来确定。

首先需要确定决策变量和随机变量，然后建立它们之间的关系。

在建立模型时，要保证模型的可靠性和合理性。

三、运行仿真在完成模型建立后，就可以进行仿真运行了。

Crystal Ball使用蒙特卡洛仿真技术，通过随机抽样来模拟不同可能的情况。

这样可以得到一系列可能的结果，并对其进行统计分析。

四、分析结果Crystal Ball提供了多种统计分析方法，可以帮助用户对仿真结果进行分析和解释。

常用的分析方法包括概率分布分析、敏感性分析和决策树分析等。

通过这些分析，可以得到关键决策变量的概率分布、敏感性程度以及最优决策方案等信息。

五、结果解释和应用在分析结果之后，需要对结果进行解释和应用。

Crystal Ball提供了可视化工具，可以将分析结果以图表的形式展示出来，帮助用户更好地理解和应用结果。

同时，还可以通过对结果的解释和讨论，对决策方案进行优化和调整。

六、风险管理Crystal Ball除了用于预测和决策支持，还可以用于风险管理。

通过对不确定性的建模和分析，可以帮助用户识别和评估潜在的风险，并采取相应的措施进行风险管理和控制。

七、案例分析以下是一个使用Crystal Ball进行预测和决策的案例分析。

假设某公司要决定是否投资于某个新项目。

第8章-Crystall-Ball模拟软件PPT课件

14
8.4 示例－费瑞迪报童问题
用决策表制定决策
在40到70之间的哪个订购量能够最大化每天的平均利润呢？比较合理的做法是试验订购量的可能值的各个样本，如 40,45,…,70。
利用决策表工具可以执行这个工作，具体的步骤如下：
（1）选择包含决策变量的单元格；（2）如果单元格中还没有数值，任意输入一个数值；（3）点击Crystal Ball工具条上的定义决策变量按钮，弹出定义
4481维数的灾难研究的问题中相关变量个数高达数百甚至数千难度随维数的增加呈指数增长蒙特卡罗方法的计算复杂性不依赖于维数主要步骤建立各种估计量5582利用crystalball软件进行模拟的步骤1建立电子表格模型2规定关于概率变量的假设3规定预测单元即相关的输出变量4设定重复次数5运行模拟6解释结果6683crystalballdefineassumptionsdefineforecastrunpreferencesstartsimulationresetsimulationforecastwindowstrendchart7784问题描述newsboy8884建立相关变量的工作表绿色单元格表示随机变量黄色单元格表示决策变量9984定义假设单元格
9
8.4 示例－费瑞迪报童问题
定义预测单元格：计算机模拟的电子表格模型并没有包括目
标单元格，但是预测单元格可以实现这一作用。定义预测单元格的步骤：
（1）选中一个单元格；（2）单击Crystal Ball工具条中的Define Forecast按钮，从而弹出
定义预测对话框（如图8-14所示）（3）这个对话框可以用来输入一个名字标签，并且定义预测单元格的
决策变量对话框；（4）为决策变量的模拟数值定义下限和上限；（5）选择连续分布或者离散分布，定义决策变量是连续的还是离

化学实验制作水晶结晶实验

化学实验制作水晶结晶实验水晶结晶实验是一项经典的化学实验，通过溶解物质并使其重新结晶形成水晶，展示出美丽的结晶形态。

本文将介绍如何进行水晶结晶实验，并提供详细的实验步骤和操作方法。

材料准备：1. 高纯度结晶试剂（如硫酸镁、硫酸钾等）2. 蒸馏水或高纯度水3. 温度可控的容器（如玻璃烧杯、烧瓶等）4. 搅拌棒或玻璃棒5. 过滤纸或滤纸漏斗6. 显微镜（可选）实验步骤：1. 准备容器：选择一个温度可控的容器，保证容器内外温度的稳定。

可以在恒温水浴中进行实验，或者根据实验要求调节加热设备的温度。

2. 溶解试剂：称取一定质量的结晶试剂，例如硫酸镁，加入足够的蒸馏水或高纯度水中。

根据试剂的溶解度，在适当的温度下搅拌溶解，直至试剂完全溶解。

3. 过滤溶液：使用过滤纸或滤纸漏斗过滤溶液，去除其中的杂质或未溶解的物质。

保持滤液的透明度，这对于后续结晶的形成非常重要。

4. 结晶形成：将过滤后的溶液静置于容器内，等待结晶的形成。

这个过程可能需要一段时间，可以放置到恒温箱中提高结晶的速度。

在等待的过程中，可以观察溶液的变化，以及结晶的形态。

5. 结晶收集：当结晶完全形成后，使用过滤纸或滤纸漏斗将结晶分离出来，并用冷蒸馏水洗涤结晶，以去除表面附着的杂质。

6. 结晶鉴定：观察收集到的结晶样品，使用显微镜可以更加清晰地观察结晶的形态和细节。

可以与已知的水晶样品进行对比，以判断结晶的纯度和成分。

实验注意事项：1. 实验过程中要注意安全，避免试剂溅入眼睛或皮肤接触。

实验室操作应符合安全规范，佩戴必要的防护设备。

2. 温度控制很关键，在结晶的过程中保持适当的温度，可以促进结晶的形成。

3. 结晶的形态与溶液的浓度、温度和其他物理条件密切相关。

可以尝试不同条件下的实验，观察不同条件下结晶的差异。

4. 结晶试剂的选取也可以根据需要进行调整，不同试剂可能会产生不同形态的结晶。

总结：水晶结晶实验是一项非常有趣和美丽的化学实验。

通过溶解试剂并使其重新结晶，我们可以观察到结晶的形态和细节，体验到化学反应中的美妙和奇妙。

风险管理软件Crystal_Ball使用指导

they shouldBh9gO4D。

(typically theyou would later like Sensitivity Analysisto generate the under Options in Preferences.Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal Ball用水晶球软件进行蒙特卡洛模拟To run a simulation using Crystal Ball1. Setup Spreadsheet1．设定数据表Build a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure (e.g., profit) in terms of the inputs （random or not）. For random inputs, just enter any number. Hwbpsm。

K 通过建立数据表可以对输入数据（随机的，非随机）进行评估。

随机数据的输入，输入任意数即可。

2. Define Assumptions —i.e., random variablesDefine which cells are random, and what distribution follow. 274B0W。

R2．定义假设的前提—例如，随机变量确定那些单元格的数据时随机的，这些数据应该服从什么样的分布3. Define Forecast —i.e., output or performancemeasureDefine which cell（s） you are interested in forecasting performance measure, e.g., profit）.biNjnie 。

3．预测结果的确定—例如，数据输出或者性能的测定确定哪些单元格的数据是你想预测的（典型的性能指标，例如，利润）4. Choose Number of TrialsSelect the number of trials. IfSensitivity Analysis chart, choose Run 4. 选择试验的次数5DJxkmF。

风险管理软件CrystalBall使用指导

Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal Ball®To run a simulation using Crystal Ball®:1. Setup SpreadsheetBuild a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure (e.g., profit) in terms of the inputs (random or not). For random inputs, just enter any number.2. Define Assumptions—i.e., random variablesDefine which cells are random, and what distribution they should follow.3. Define Forecast—i.e., output or performance measureDefine which cell(s) you are interested in forecasting (typically the performance measure, e.g., profit).4. Choose Number of TrialsSelect the number of trials. If you would later like to generate the Sensitivity Analysis chart, choose “Sensitivity Analysis” under Options in Run Preferences.5. Run SimulationRun the simulation. If you would like to change parameters and re-run the simulation, you should “reset” the simulation (click on the “Reset Simulation” button on the toolbar or in the Run menu) first.6. View ResultsThe forecast window showing the results of the simulation appears automatically after (or during) the simulation. Many different results are available (frequency chart, cumulative chart, statistics, percentiles, sensitivity analysis, and trend chart). The results can be copied into the worksheet.Crystal Ball Toolbar:Define Define Run Start Reset Forecast Trend Assumptions Forecast Preferences Simulation Simulation Window ChartWalton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball®Recall the Walton Bookstore example: It is August, and they must decide how many of next year’s nature calendars to order. Each calendar costs the bookstore $7.50 and is sold for $10. After February, all unsold calendars are returned to the publisher for a refund of $2.50 per calendar. Suppose Walton predicts demand will be somewhere between 100 and 300 (discrete uniform).Demand = d ~ Uniform[100, 300]Order Quantity = Q (decision variable)Revenue = $10 * Min(Q, d)Cost = $7.50 * QRefund = $2.50 * Max(Q–d, 0)Profit = Revenue – Cost + RefundStep #1 (Setup Spreadsheet)Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball ®Step #2 (Define Assumptions —i.e., random variables)—color code (blue):and click on the “Define Assumptions” button in toolbar (or in the Cell menu):Select type of distribution:Provide parameters of distributions:Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball®Step #3 (Define Forecast—i.e., output)click on the “Define Forecast” button in toolbar (or in the Cell menu),and fill in the Define Forecast dialogue box.Step #4 (Choose Number of Trials)Click on the “Run Preferences” button in toolbar (or in the Run menu):and select the number of trials to run.Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball®Step #5 (Run Simulation)Click on the “Start Simulation” button in toolbar (or Run in the Run menu):Step #6 (View Results)The results of the simulation can be viewed in a variety of different ways (frequency chart, cumulative chart, statistics, and percentiles). Choose different options under the View menuin the forecast window.The results can be copied into a worksheet or Word document (choose Copy under the Edit menu in the simulation output window.Using Trend Charts to Find the Impact of Order Quantityon Potential ProfitDefine several forecast cells (G14:G18) for several possible order quantities (Q=100, 150, 200, 250, 300). Use the same random order quantity for each to compare them more equally (i.e., one assumption cell for demand—C14—with the rest set equal to C14).After running the simulation, choose “Open Trend Chart” in the Run menu. This chart gives “certainty bands” for the forecast cells. 10% of the time, the project duration will fall within the inner band (light blue), 25% of the time within the 2nd band (red), 50% of the time within the third band (green), and 90% of the time within the outside band (dark blue).Project Management—Global OilGlobal Oil is planning to move their credit card operation to Des Moines, Iowa from their home office in Dallas. The move involves many different divisions within the company. Real estate must select one of three available office sites. Personnel has to determine which employees from Dallas will move, how many new employees to hire, and who will train them. The systems group and treasurer’s office must organize the new operating procedure and make financial arrangements. The architects will have to design the interior space, and oversee needed structural improvements. Each site is an existing building with sufficient open space, but office partitions, computer facilities, furnishings, and so on, must all be provided.A complicating factor is that there is an interdependence of activities. In other words, some parts of the project cannot be started until other parts are completed. For example, Global cannot construct the interior of an office before it has been designed. Neither can it hire new employees until it has determined its personnel requirements.The necessary activities and their necessary predecessors (due to interdependence) are listed below. Three estimates are made for the completion time of each activity—the minimum time, most likely time, and maximum time.Start EndGlobal Oil Simulation with Crystal Ball®Step #1 (Setup Spreadsheet)Step #2 (Define Assumptions—i.e., random variables)Each of the random activity times (B, C, D, E, G, and I) is assumed to follow the triangular distribution.Global Oil Simulation with Crystal Ball®Step #3 (Define Forecast—i.e., output)Cell J15 is the forecast cell:Step #4 (Choose Number of Trials)500 trials were run. In addition, Sensitivity Analysis was enabled in the Options of the Run Preferences dialogue box. This allows for the generation of sensitivity analysis results later.Step #5 (Run Simulation)Step #6 (View Results)Additional Results Available with Crystal Ball®Slide the triangles below the histograms to determine the probability that the output (project duration) is less than a certain value (e.g., a deadline), greater than a certain value, or between any two values (by sliding both triangles).Alternatively, you can type in values for the lower bound or upper bound to determine the probability. You can also type in a probability (in “Certainty”), and it will determine the range that has that probability.There is a 79% chance the project will be completed within 150 days.There is a 2.4% chance that the project will take more than 160 days.Sensitivity ChartChoose “Open Sensitivity Chart” in the R un menu. Note that this chart is only available ifyou selected the “Sensitivity Analysis” option under Run Preferences. This chart gives an indication as to which random variables (activity times) have the greatest impact on the output cell (project completion time).Variability in activity E has the greatest impact on overall project duration, followed by activity D, C, I, and B. Variability in activity G has almost no impact.Fitting a DistributionCrystal Ball can be used to “fit” a distribution t o data.The following data has been collected for the previous 100 phone calls to a mail-order house:(80 rows have been hidden)Fitting Data to a DistributionUsing Crystal Ball® to fit data to a distribution1. Select a spreadsheet cell.2. Choose Define Assumption.3. Click the Fit button, then select the source of the fitted data.4. Click the Next button, then select the distributions to try to fit.5. Click OK.Interarrival TimeService Time。

第8章Crystall-Ball模拟软件

8.4 示例－费瑞迪报童问题
运行模拟后，系统会在一张新的电子表格中创建一个决策表。表明最优订单量在50到60之间。为了更精确地得到这个数值，可以再制作一个决策表，考虑50和60之间的所有整数订单量。
8.4 示例—某建筑公司案例
某建筑公司案例——建筑工程投标

投标背景
科信+其他三家建筑公司参加投标项目总成本估计值：455万美元资深分析师估计竞争者的投标价
8.4 示例－费瑞迪报童问题
通过前面的模拟，设定了弗瑞迪每天《金融日报》的定购数量为60份，因为这个定购量是一个能够满足需求又不会剩余大量未出售报纸的一个合理折中值然而通过目前的模拟，还不能说明60是否是最大化其日均利润的最优定购量。利用Crystal Ball软件中的OptQuest最优化模型可以搜索最佳定购量。

竞争者1：三角分布，最小值95%，最可能值130%，最大值160% 竞争者2：三角分布，最小值110%，最可能值125%，最大值140% 竞争者3：均匀分布，120%到130%之间

Contract Bidding
8.4 示例—某建筑公司案例
应用计算机模拟的电子表格模型由于工序时间主要是可变的，除了单元格 H16外，单元格 H6:H19都需要作为假设单元格，服从三角分布，预测单元格：项目完成(I21)
8.4 示例—某建筑公司案例
在Run Preferences对话框中设定1000次作为模拟次数，下图分别以频率图、统计表和百分比图的形式显示了结果。
8.4 示例—某建筑公司案例
该建筑公司的管理层特别感兴趣的一个统计值是在目前项目计划下能够在47周的最后期限完成项目的概率。确定性方框中显示试验次数中的58.9%将会满足截止期的要求。

CrystallBall模拟软件实用PPT学习教案

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8.4 示例－费瑞迪报童问题
定义预测单元格：计算机模拟的电子表格模型并没有包括目标单元格，但是预测单元格
可以实现这一作用。定义预测单元格的步骤：
（1）选中一个单元格；（2）单击Crystal Ball工具条中的Define Forecast按钮，从而弹出定义预测对话框（如图8-14所示）（3）这个对话框可以用来输入一个名字标签，并且定义预测单元格的单位（4）点击确定。
在Run Preferences对话框中设定1000次作为模拟次数，下图分别以频率图、统计表和百分比图的形式显示了结果。
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8.4 示例—某建筑公司案例
该建筑公司的管理层特别感兴趣的一个统计值是在目前项目计划下能够在47 周的最后期限完成项目的概率。
确定性方框中显示试验次数中的58.9%将会满足截止期的要求。
运行模拟：
点击Start Simulation按钮或者选择运行菜单中的Start
Simulation选项。如果你已经在先前运行过计算机模拟，那么应该在此运行前
首先点击重置模拟Reset Simulation按钮，或者从运行菜单中选择重置模拟Reset
Simulation选项来重置模拟。
第11页/共27页
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8.4 示例－费瑞迪报童问题
设定运行参数：主要是为运行模拟选择试验次数，决定其他如何执行模拟的参数。通过点
击Crystal Ball工具条的运行参数按钮Run Preferences 图里所显示的数字500表示计算机模拟的最大运行次数。
第10页/共27页
8.4 示例－费瑞迪报童问题
8.4 示例－费瑞迪报童问题
第三步对话框用来制定决策表的选项。第一个输入方框记录了对于每一个决策变量的值所要运行模拟的次数。Crystal Ball会在定义决策变量对话框所制定的范围内平均分布数值。对于弗瑞迪报童问题，数值的范围是40到70，在第三步对话框中输入数字7就会选择40、45、50、55、 60、65、70这七个订单量的数值进行模拟。

Crystal_Ball_蒙塔卡洛模拟教程

13-4
報童佛萊迪
➢ 佛莱迪在某大城市里主要市区经营一家报摊。
➢ 佛莱迪贩售各类的报纸和杂志，其中最贵的报纸为财经日报。 ➢ 财经日报相关的成本资料：每份报纸的成本为1.50美元每份报纸的售价为2.50美元没售出的报纸，每份报纸可以获得0.50美元的偿还金 ➢ 财经日报的销售资料：佛莱迪每天的销售量介于40到70份之间。销售数量介于40到70份之间任何数值的频率相同。
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2009
13-19
准确度控制：扩充的定义预测对话方块
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2009
13-20
準確度控制的結果
1,000 次試驗得出有95%信賴區間低於1美元。
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2009
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2009
13-15
佛萊迪利潤的頻率圖
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2009
13-16
佛萊迪利潤更多的結果
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2009
Certainty 栏位显示佛萊迪的模拟实验中
– 竞争者 2 则设定 25% 的边际利润以及他在估算计画成本时会比竞争者 1 来得准确；但是根据过去的竞标经验，他的边际利润也有可能在至多正负15% 间移动。
– 竞争者 3 估算计画成本极为精准，将其边际利润设在介于 20% 与30% 之间的任一数字。
問題：信用公司對於這個計畫的投資金額應該是多少？

水晶球软件使用CrystalBall

• How to deal with randomness?
➢ Ignore it ➢ Simplify problem to make it analytically
tractable, get solution, then ignore real-life complications ➢ Find a way to obtain an approximate solution to real-world problems
Let 1 represent “heads” and 2 represent “tails”. Consider the following RNG:
=IF(RAND( )<0.5,1,2)
Generating Random Numbers with Crystal Ball
Crystal Ball provides two different ways for creating Random Number Generators in spreadsheets
We can implement Random Number Generators for uncertain cells to allow us to sample from the distribution of values expected for different cells.
How Random Number Generators Work
This is easy to do and bounds the outcomes, but tells
us nothing about the distribution of possible
outcomes within the best and worst-case limits.

Crystal-Ball实验操作过程

Crystal Ball实验操作过程实验一：一、数据录入与导入双击CB快捷方式图标或直接打开Excel打开软件。

前面提到过Crystal Ball软件是在Excel里的一个插件，所以双击打开后是Excel的界面，如下图：图 1用户可以在该界面中直接录入数据，也可以左击右上角的符号，选择打开，将原有Excel表格中的数据直接导入到带有Crystal Ball插件的电子表格中。

二、拟合分布图2(1)对数据进行标准化处理(减少原数据相互间的距离对拟合分布的影响)通过Average计算每个分布工程样本数据的均值,然后各个样本数据除以相应的均值,对数据进行标准化处理。

（2）拟合分布选取表格区域，点击工具栏上“Run-Tools-Batch Fit”,如图3所示。

图3在操作对话框中，选择“next”,至图4对话框对相应命令进行选择,可得到拟合过程的相关数据。

图4注：对于卡方检验，水晶球软件计算p值，p值大于0.5一般表示紧密拟合；对于科尔莫格洛夫-斯米尔诺夫检验，一般地，小于0.03的K-S值表明良好拟合；对于安德森-达林检验，小于1.5的计算值一般表明拟合优良。

实验二:一.按照实验一的操作,先将数据在Crystal Ball软件打开.二、假设单元格概率分布的定义及相关操作输入数据后，进行随机变量假设单元格概率分布的定义。

这里假设使用悲观时间的单元格来进行概率分布的定义。

（注：对于假设单元格的选择，并无太多的限制，因为定义各种概率的分布，是由相应的参数确定的，因此选择的假设单元格不同对结果并没有影响。

）有一点需要注意的是，选择假设单元格时，该单元格应当是一确定的数字，而不能是公式.选定单元格（如单元格I2）后，点击工具栏上的，随即弹出图5，CB 软件中提供22种不同的分布可供选择，根据实验任务书的要求，第一和第二项分部分项工程服从三参数beta分布，因此，选择BtaPERT分布，并填入相应参数，即可完成对“基坑支护挖土方”的定义，如图6所示。

Crystal Ball软件测量的不确定度的评定研究

Crystal Ball软件测量的不确定度的评定研究摘要本文首先介绍了测量不确定度的概念，接着阐述了测量不确定度在实验室检测过程中的作用，然后介绍了测量不确定度的方法和步骤，本文介绍了使用Crystal Ball利用蒙特卡罗方法在测量不确定度的应用的步骤，通过软件的使用可以解决在测试实际工作中评定测量不确定度遇到的困难。

关键词：软件测量测量不确定度引言测量结果与被测量真值的一致程度被定义为准确性。

但是实际上不存在完全准确无误的测量，因此通常在给出量值结果的同时，通常给出适应于实际需要的不确定度。

如果没有对不确定度的表述，所进行的测量的被测量对象的质量就无从判断，从而导致测量的结果值不具备充分的实用价值。

测量的结果值的准确，是在一定的不确定度、误差允许误差范围内的准确。

测量不确定度的概念2.1基本概念测量不确定度的概念最早是有国外引入，一般译为:与测量结果相联系的参数，用来表示赋予被测量对象值的分散性的特征。

它最早跟我们熟悉的误差的概念相似。

测量不确定度的前提是当我们在重复性条件下，对具有稳定特征的被测量对象X独立的进行了n次重复测量实验，在这一系列测量实验过程中，通过n 个结果按公式计算出的，第i次结果xi的实验标准差E（xi)，xi虽然是指第i 次测量的结果，但是它的实际含义是:任一次的测量结果。

表明不确定度s(xi)=u(xi)是这个测量序列中任意一次测量结果的不确定度。

如果在相同的相同的、重复条件下再进行测量，得到的结果xi的标准不确定度仍然是E(xi)。

2.2测量不确定度评定的步骤2.2.1识别不确定度来源对测试结果测量不确定度来源的识别应该首先从分析测量过程开始，并且要对测量方法、测量系统和测量程序作详细研究和熟悉，如果可能要画出测量系统原理图和测量流程图。

不确定度来源一般有：对被测量的定义不完善；实现被测量的定义的方法不理想；选取测量样品的典型性不够；对测量过程中受外部环境影响的因素识别不完整等因素引起。

风险管理软件CrystalBall操作指南(英文版)(doc 16页)

风险管理软件CrystalBall操作指南(英文版)(doc 16页)Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal Ball®To run a simulation using Crystal Ball®:1. Setup SpreadsheetBuild a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure (e.g., profit) in terms of the inputs (random or not). For random inputs, just enter any number.2. Define Assumptions—i.e., random variablesDefine which cells are random, and what distribution they should follow.3. Define Forecast—i.e., output or performance measureDefine which cell(s) you are interested in forecasting (typically the performance measure, e.g., profit).4. Choose Number of TrialsSelect the number of trials. If you would later like to generate the Sensitivity Analysis chart, choose “Sensitivity Analysis” under Options in Run Preferences.5. Run SimulationRun the simulation. If you would like to change parameters and re-run the simulation, you should “reset” the simulation (click on the “Reset Simulation” button on the toolbar or in the Run menu) first.Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball®Recall the Walton Bookstore example: It is August, and they must decide how many of next year’s nature calendars to order. Each calendar costs the bookstore $7.50 and is sold for $10. After February, all unsold calendars are returned to the publisher for a refund of $2.50 per calendar. Suppose Walton predicts demand will be somewhere between 100 and 300 (discrete uniform).Demand = d ~ Uniform[100, 300]Order Quantity = Q (decision variable)Revenue = $10 * Min(Q, d)Cost = $7.50 * QRefund = $2.50 * Max(Q–d, 0)Profit = Revenue – Cost + RefundStep #1 (Setup Spreadsheet)1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17A B C D E F Simulation of Walton's BookstoreD ataU ni t C ost =$7.50U ni t P rice =$10.00U ni t R ef und =$2.50D emand D is tribution (Uniform)M inim um =100M axi mum =300D ecis ion VariableOrder Quantity =200SimulationD em and R evenue C ost R efund P rof i t200$2,000.00$1,500.00$0.00$500.0015 16 17B C D E F SimulationD em and R evenue C ost R efund P rofi t 200=C5*M IN(C13,B17)=C4*C13=C6*M A X(C13-B17,0)=C17-D17+E17Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball ®Step #2 (Define Assumptions —i.e., random variables)—color code (blue):1617B D emand 200and click on the “Define Assumptions” button in toolbar (or in the Cell menu):Select type of distribution:Provide parameters of distributions:8910B CD emand Distribution (U niform)M inim um =100M axi mum =300Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball ®Step #3 (Define Forecast —i.e., output)1617F P rof i t$500.00click on the “Define Forecast” button in toolbar (or in the Cell menu),and fill in the Define Forecast dialogue box.Step #4 (Choose Number of Trials)Click on the “Run Preferences” button in toolbar (or in the Run menu):and select the number of trials to run.Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball ®Step #5 (Run Simulation)Click on the “Start Simulation” button in toolbar (or Run in the Run menu):Step #6 (View Results)The results of the simulation can be viewed in a variety of different ways (frequency chart, cumulative chart, statistics, and percentiles). Choose different options under the View menu in the forecast window.The results can be copied into a worksheet or Word document (choose Copy under the Edit menu in the simulation output window.Using Trend Charts to Find the Impact of Order Quantityon Potential ProfitDefine several forecast cells (G14:G18) for several possible order quantities (Q=100, 150, 200, 250, 300). Use the same random order quantity for each to compare them more equally (i.e., one assumption cell for demand—C14—with the rest set equal to C14).1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18A B C D E F G Simulation of Walton's BookstoreD ataU ni t C ost =$7.50U ni t P rice =$10.00U ni t R ef und =$2.50D emand D is tribution (Uniform)M inim um =100M axim um =300SimulationOrder Quantity D em and R evenue C ost R efund P rof it 100200$1,000.00$750.00$0.00$250.00150200$1,500.00$1,125.00$0.00$375.00200200$2,000.00$1,500.00$0.00$500.00250200$2,000.00$1,875.00$125.00$250.00300200$2,000.00$2,250.00$250.00$0.0012 13 14 15 16 17 18B C D E F G SimulationOrder Quantity D em and R evenue C ost R efund P rofi t 100200=$C$5*M IN(B14,C14)=$C$4*B14=$C$6*M AX(B14-C14,0)=D14-E14+F14 150=$C$14=$C$5*M IN(B15,C15)=$C$4*B15=$C$6*M AX(B15-C15,0)=D15-E15+F15 200=$C$14=$C$5*M IN(B16,C16)=$C$4*B16=$C$6*M AX(B16-C16,0)=D16-E16+F16 250=$C$14=$C$5*M IN(B17,C17)=$C$4*B17=$C$6*M AX(B17-C17,0)=D17-E17+F17 300=$C$14=$C$5*M IN(B18,C18)=$C$4*B18=$C$6*M AX(B18-C18,0)=D18-E18+F18After running the simulation, choose “Open Trend Chart” in the Run menu. This chart gives “certainty bands” for the forecast cells. 10% of the time, the project duration will fall within the inner band (light blue), 25% of the time within the 2nd band (red), 50% of the time within the third band (green), and 90% of the time within the outside band (dark blue).Project Management—Global OilGlobal Oil is planning to move their credit card operation to Des Moines, Iowa from their home office in Dallas. The move involves many different divisions within the company. Real estate must select one of three available office sites. Personnel has to determine which employees from Dallas will move, how many new employees to hire, and who will train them. The systems group and treasurer’s office must organize the new operating procedure and make financial arrangements. The architects will have to design the interior space, and oversee needed structural improvements. Each site is an existing building with sufficient open space, but office partitions, computer facilities, furnishings, and so on, must all be provided.A complicating factor is that there is an interdependence of activities. In other words, some parts of the project cannot be started until other parts are completed. For example, Global cannot construct the interior of an office before it has been designed. Neither can it hire new employees until it has determined its personnel requirements.The necessary activities and their necessary predecessors (due to interdependence) are listed below. Three estimates are made for the completion time of each activity—the minimum time, most likely time, and maximum time.Immediate Time Estimates (days)Minimum Most Likely Maximum Activity Description PredecessorA Select Office Site —21 21 21B Create Org. & Fin. Plan —20 25 30C Determine Personnel Req. B 15 20 30D Design Facility A, C 20 28 42E Construct Facility D 40 48 66F Select Personnel to Move C 12 12 12G Hire New Employees F 20 25 32H Move Key Employees F 28 28 28 I Train New PersonnelE, G, H1015 24ABCDFGHIEStartEndGlobal Oil Simulation with Crystal Ball®Step #1 (Setup Spreadsheet)1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15A B C D E F G H I J Global Oil Relocation ProjectActivity Tim e (Triangular)Im m edi ate M ost Start Activity Finish Activity D escri ption P redecessors M inim um Likely M axi mum Tim e Tim e Tim eA Sel ect Site-21212102121B C reate Org. & Fin. P lan-20253002525C D eterm ine P ersonnel Req.B152030252045D D esign Facil ity A, C202842452873E C onstruct Facility D4048667348121F Sel ect Personnel to M ove C121212451257G H ire New Em ployees F202532572582H M ove Key E mployees F282828572885I Train N ew P ersonnel E, G, H10152412115136P roject C om pleti on Tim e =136.003456789101112131415H I JStart Activity FinishTim e Tim e Tim e021=H5+I5025=H6+I6=J620=H7+I7=M A X(J5,J7)28=H8+I8=J848=H9+I9=J712=H10+I10=J1025=H11+I11=J1028=H12+I12=M A X(J9,J11,J12)15=H13+I13P roject C ompleti on Tim e ==J13Step #2 (Define Assumptions—i.e., random variables)Each of the random activity times (B, C, D, E, G, and I) is assumed to follow the triangular distribution.Global Oil Simulation with Crystal Ball®Step #3 (Define Forecast—i.e., output)Cell J15 is the forecast cell:15G H I J Project Completion Time =136.00Step #4 (Choose Number of Trials)500 trials were run. In addition, Sensitivity Analysis was enabled in the Options of the Run Preferences dialogue box. This allows for the generation of sensitivity analysis results later.Step #5 (Run Simulation)Step #6 (View Results)Additional Results Available with Crystal Ball®Slide the triangles below the histograms to determine the probability that the output (project duration) is less than a certain value (e.g., a deadline), greater than a certain value, or between any two values (by sliding both triangles).Alternatively, you can type in values for the lower bound or upper bound to determine the probability. You can also type in a probability (in “Certainty”), and it will determine the range that has that probability.There is a 79% chance the project will be completed within 150 days.There is a 2.4% chance that the project will take more than 160 days.Sensitivity ChartChoose “Open Sensitivity Chart” in the Run menu. Note that this chart is only availableif you selected the “Sensitivity Analysis” option under Run Preferences. This chartgives an indication as to which random variables (activity times) have the greatest impact on the output cell (project completion time).Variability in activity E has the greatest impact on overall project duration, followed by activity D, C, I, and B. Variability in activity G has almost no impact.Fitting a DistributionCrystal Ball can be used to “fit” a distribution to data.The following data has been collected for the previous 100 phone calls to a mail-order house:1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 99 100 101 102 103 104A B C D E F G H I Phone DataArrival Interarrival Length of Call Interarrival Length of Call Cus tomer #(minutes)Time(minutes)Time(minutes)18.228.22 3.77Averages 2.004 4.51212.25 4.03 4.53312.270.02 4.04416.26 3.98 3.70Simulation24518.06 1.81 5.38618.870.81 4.36723.46 4.58 4.41823.530.08 5.14928.73 5.20 4.761030.56 1.83 4.681132.36 1.80 5.061236.90 4.54 5.751343.30 6.40 4.061443.880.57 3.251545.17 1.29 3.5795194.020.28 4.2696195.48 1.46 3.3797195.870.38 4.4598196.840.98 5.0699197.810.97 5.20100200.43 2.61 4.25345G H IInterarrival Length of CallTime(minutes)Averages=AVERAGE(D5:D104)=AVERAGE(E5:E104)(80 rows have been hidden)Fitting Data to a DistributionUsing Crystal Ball® to fit data to a distribution1. Select a spreadsheet cell.2. Choose Define Assumption.3. Click the Fit button, then select the source of the fitted data.4. Click the Next button, then select the distributions to try to fit.5. Click OK.Interarrival TimeService Time。

crystal ball使用指导

crystal ball使用指导Crystal Ball使用指导导言：Crystal Ball是一款用于预测和分析风险的软件工具，它可以帮助企业和组织做出明智的决策。

本文将介绍如何使用Crystal Ball进行预测和分析，以及一些注意事项和技巧。

一、Crystal Ball简介Crystal Ball是由Oracle公司开发的一款风险分析软件，它基于蒙特卡罗模拟方法，可以通过模拟大量的随机变量来预测未来的风险和收益。

Crystal Ball可以用于各种决策问题，如项目管理、投资分析、供应链优化等，帮助用户做出更准确的决策。

二、Crystal Ball的使用步骤1. 数据输入：首先，我们需要将相关的数据输入到Crystal Ball 中。

可以直接在Crystal Ball中输入数据，也可以从外部文件导入数据。

在输入数据时，需要注意数据的格式和准确性。

2. 模型建立：在输入数据之后，我们需要建立相应的模型。

模型可以是简单的数学模型，也可以是复杂的模拟模型。

在建立模型时，需要考虑到各种变量之间的关系，并进行合理的假设和参数设定。

3. 分布设定：Crystal Ball中的随机变量需要设定相应的概率分布。

可以选择常见的分布，如正态分布、均匀分布等，也可以根据实际情况自定义分布。

在设定分布时，需要根据实际数据和经验进行合理的选择。

4. 模拟运行：一切准备就绪后，我们可以进行模拟运行。

Crystal Ball会根据设定的分布和模型进行大量的随机模拟，得到未来可能的结果。

可以设定模拟的次数，以增加结果的准确性。

5. 结果分析：模拟运行完成后，Crystal Ball会生成相应的结果。

我们可以通过查看统计指标、绘制图表等方式对结果进行分析。

可以计算平均值、方差、置信区间等，以评估风险和收益。

三、Crystal Ball的注意事项和技巧1. 数据准确性：Crystal Ball的结果取决于输入的数据，因此需要确保数据的准确性。