现阶段能源结构调整目标和任务

现阶段能源结构调整目标和任务

摘要：长期以来，受能源资源禀赋条件制约，我国一直维持以煤为主的能源消费结构。煤炭的过度开发利用带来了环境污染严重、温室气体排放压力增大、能源利用效率难以提高等一系列问题。为实现经济社会可持续发展，必须增加优质能源的利用比例。本课题结合我国国情，根据国家提出的“2020年非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到15%左右”和“2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%-45%”的目标，提出现阶段优化我国能源结构的目标、思路和任务。

本报告从我国能源发展面临的形势和挑战入手，梳理了我国能源消费结构历史演变过程和特点，对比分析了发达国家能源结构调整的主要途径及对我国的启示。基于我国国情和发达国家经验，报告研究了我国能源结构优化调整的总体目标要求和实现路径，分析了现阶段我国能源结构调整的目标及任务，并提出了促使我国能源结构向优质、高效方向转变的相关建议。

报告共分为五个部分。

第一部分总结了我国能源发展面临的形势。现阶段我国能源发展主要面临着能源需求增长潜力巨大、能源供应不足、利用效率较低、环境污染严重、温室气体减排形势严峻、能源安全问题日益凸显等挑战。

第二部分分析了我国能源消费结构的历史演变过程，并与世界及主要国家能源结构进行对比，研究了主要发达国家能源结构调整的路径及对我国的启示。改革开放以来，我国能源结构总体上向优质化方向发展，但与发达国家相比，能源结构优质化程度还很低。发达国家根据自身资源及技术条件，采取了不同的能源结构调整策略，主要经验是通过大力推行节能，发展核电、天然气和非水可再生能源，降低石油比重，实施能源多元化战略，优化能源结构。

第三部分分析了2020年我国能源发展目标对能源结构调整的要求。分析了我国政府提出的“2020年非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到15%”和“2020年碳排放强度比2005年下降40%-45%”目标对能源结构调整的要求，以及对应的实现路径，提出了实施核电、水电、非水可再生能源并举，加大节能力度，控制能源消费总量的发展策略。

第四部分提出了现阶段我国能源结构优化调整的目标和任务。现阶段调整我国能源消费结构，应坚持能源结构低碳化方向，提高能源转换和利用效率，科学替代，多能并举，技术引领，增量优化和存量调整并重，并充分利用国内外两种资源和两个市场。到2015年和2020年，一次能源消费结构中，煤炭比重应分别降到63%和56%左右，石油比重分别达到19.5%和20%左右，天然气比重分别达到6.5%和9.0%左右，非化石能源比重分别达到11.5%和15%以上。实现我国能源结构优化的任务包括节能，发展清洁能源，进口国外优质能源，提高电煤占煤炭消费比重，实现煤炭高效洁净化利用等。

第五部分总结了全文观点，提出了促进我国能源结构优化调整的建议：一是坚定不移地贯彻实施“节能优先”战略；二是加紧突破体制机制障碍，确保水电、核电、风电开发规模；三是转变电力发展方式，加快坚强智能电网建设；四是加快清洁能源自主创新步伐，带动相关产业升级和科学发展。

关键词：能源结构；能源效率；碳减排；优化；路径

课题负责人：李琼慧

课题组成员：郭基伟代红才汪晓露

Objectives and Tasks of Energy Structure Adjustment at Current Stage

Abstract: China has maintained a coal-dominated energy consumption structure for a long time constrained by the energy resource endowment.Over-exploitation of coal has brought serious environmental pollution, rapid increment of greenhouse gas emission, low energy efficiency and other issues.

To achieve sustainable economic and social development, the quality of the proportion of clean energy must be increased. This report put forward the goals, ideas and tasks of energy mix optimization considering the two targets: 15% proportion of non-fossil energy sources, and 40% to 45% reduction of carbon intensity by 2020.

This report reviews the challenges of energy development, the historical evolution of energy mix in China, analyses the road map of energy mix optimization of developed countries and the enlightenment to China. Based on the actual condition and experience of developed countries, this report analyses the energy mix optimization goals and road map, and put forward the relevant recommendations for efficient energy utilization.

The report consists of 5 parts.

The first part reviews the current energy development situation of China. The facing challenges include great potential energy demand growth, energy supply shortage, low energy efficiency serious environment pollution, rapid increment of greenhouse gas emission, and the pressure of energy security.

The second part reviews the historical evolution of energy mix in China, and compares it with the world and main countries energy mix. The road map of developed countries and the enlightenment to china has been concluded. The quality of China's energy mix is improved in general, but the proportion of high quality energy resource is still low compared with developed countries. Mainly experiences of developed countries are energy conservation, clean energy development, and energy resource diversification.

The third part analyses the requirement of energy mix optimization considering the energy development target by 2020. The road map and development strategy to realize the non-fossil proportion target and carbon intensity reduction target is put forward.

The fourth part analyses the target and tasks of energy mix optimization in China in current stage. By 2015 and 2020, the proportion of coal should decrease to 63% and 56%, the proportion of oil should be 19.5% and 20%, the gas proportion of gas should be 6.5% and 9.0%, non-fossil energy proportion should be above 11.5% and 15%. The tasks includes energy conservation, clean energy development, high quality energy import, improvement of proportion of coal used for generation, and realize the high efficiency and clean use of coal.

The fifth part concludes the viewpoint and put forward the advices of the energy mix optimization. These advices include energy conservation, reform of relevant institutional mechanisms, transition of electric power development style, smart grid construction and clean energy technology innovation.

Key words: Energy Mix; Energy Efficiency; Carbon Emission Reduction; Optimization; Road Map