美国经济形势及对中国经济的影响

• Democrats are demoralized by the continued economic weaknesses and lost majority in the house
Relationship with China
• China own trillions in US treasury bond • China is supplier of much of US’s consumer goods • China is now the largest auto market
Political Crisis
Politics in the USA
• Big government versus small government • Religious conservatism
– – – – War against Islam Abortion Gays in the military Separation of Church and State
Economic Crisis
历史背景 :次级房屋信贷危机
• 政治因素: the desire for increased access to home ownership for low income families • 次级房屋信贷(Subprime mortgage) • 资产证券化 资产证券化(Mortgage Backed Securities): Fannie Mae 房利美） Mac（房地美）、 ）、Ginnie Mae(吉利 （房利美）Freddie Mac（房地美）、Ginnie Mae(吉利 美) • July 08: 印地麥克銀行(Indie Mac) failed • 联邦政府接管了房利美和房地美 • 危机开始影响到那些与房地产无关的普通信贷 • 信用衍生性商品: 雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)、美國國際 集團 (AIG)、美林證券(Merrill Lynch)、摩根史坦利 (Morgan Stanley)和高盛證券 (Goldman Sachs)
– Detroit, Miami, Las Vegas
• • • • •
Loan default, foreclosures Bank failures Stock Market collapse Unemployment rate at 10% Loss of consumer confidence and consumer spending (2/3 of economy) • Deficit crisis at the state level
2007－2010美国经济形势及对 － 美国经济形势及对 中国经济的影响
Robert J. Lee
Economy and Politics
• • • • • Economic Crisis Political Crisis US attitude towards China Current status Future problems
Blame China- a convenient scapegoat
• RMB undervaluation • Job loss to China
– Lack of environmental regulation – Lack of respect for IP – Human right issues
• Immigration
– Arizona immigration law
• • • •
Regulation versus deregulation Healthcare: private versus government regulation Taxation- tax break for the rich versus the poor Environment and global warming
Housing price Index
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)
GM
• Has many brands: Buick, Oldsmobile, Saturn, Hummer, Pontiac, GMC, Chevrolet, Cadillac, etc • GM versus UAW: Pension and healthcare benefit for retirees, rising health care cost (unsustainable) • Closing of dealerships, factories, bankruptcy • President Bush’s administration only weeks before leaving office gave GM and Chrysler $17.4 billion in loans • The Obama administration pumped billions more into the car makers but gained concessions from company stakeholders and pushed GM and Chrysler through quick bankruptcies • Rescue “government motors” to recent IPO, partly to rescue UAW union benefit – stock holder and bond owner wiped out, with help of bankruptcy court
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
• $787 billion. The Act includes federal tax incentives, expansion of unemployment benefits and other social welfare provisions, and domestic spending in education, health care, and infrastructure, including the energy sector.
Treasury bond-purchase plan
Future problems
• • • • • Political gridlock Continued economic problems Prolonged war in ABaidu Nhomakorabeaghanistan Social security, Medicare insolvency Loss of status as the lone superpower
Election of 2008-Obama’s victory
• Election of 2008 democratic party gained majority in both the house and the senate • Economic stimulus and recovery plan passed, stimulation of economy through increased government spending • Bankruptcy and Rescue of GM and Chrysler • Healthcare reform: expanded coverage through mandates, but little cost cutting
美國救市方案
• 2008年經濟穩定緊急法案 • 政府撥出七千億美元來購買非流動的不動 產擔保證券 • 美國民眾反應 反應:大銀行們先是主張資本主義 反應 式的放任型擴張，現在出了事卻要求以社 會主義的方式掏國庫的錢救大銀行的資本 家們，民眾卻失業，信用破產與失去房子
Consequences
• Collapse of housing price
Election of 2010-victory of the right wing conservatives
• Sarah Palin and the Tea Party Movement
– Religious conservatism – Fiscal conservatism-fear of deficit – Backlash for healthcare reform and stimulus spending – Fear of socialism, tax increase
2008年9月14日後的一週 年 月 日後的一週 大型金融機構的危機
• • • • 雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）破產 美林證券宣佈被美國銀行收購 2008年9月全球股市大崩盤 聯儲局應AIG要求，向AIG提供高達850億 美元的同業信貸融資便利服務 • 美國證券交易委員會 SEC暫停了對本國的 金融類股票短線賣空
• Cause
– Ideology, racism, xenophobia
Current status
How about now?
• Stock market has recovered much of the losses, productivity and profits are up • Unemployment stable but remains high (~10%) • Housing price remain depressed, no recovery in sight, foreclosure rates still very high • State budget very tight, especially in California • Response: government buying long bond, essentially printing money, Fed's $600 billion