公司战略和净现值分析报告

•Open circles represent decisions to be made.
•Study finance
•“A
•Filled circles
”
represent receipt of
information e.g. a test
•“B
score in this class.
”
•Do not study
Stewart Pharmaceuticals NPV of Full-Scale Production following Successful Test
Investment Revenues Variable Costs Fixed Costs Depreciation Pretax profit Tax (34%) Net Profit Cash Flow
• Sometimes the stock market provides negative clues as to a new project’s NPV.
• Consider AT&T’s repeated attempts to penetrate the computer-manufacturing industry.
• If the initial tests are successful, Stewart Pharmaceuticals can go ahead with full-scale production. This investment phase will cost $1,600 million. Production will occur over the next 4 years.
公司战略和净现值分析 报告
2020/3/21
Corporate Strategy and Positive NPV
• Introduce new products – Apple Corporation and the mouse
• Develop core technology – Honda and small engines
8.2 Decision Trees
• Allow us to graphically represent the alternatives available to us in each period and the likely consequences of our actions.
Example of Decision Tree
Year 1 -$1,600
Years 2-5 $7,000 (3,000) (1,800) (400) $1,800 (612) $1,188 $1,588
Note that the NPV is calculated as of date 1, the date at which the investment of $1,600 million is made. Later we bring this number back to date 0.
• A corporate planning group, including representatives from production, marketing, and engineering, has recommended that the firm go ahead with the test and development phase.
•“C
” •The lines leading away
•“D from the circles represent
”
the alternatives.
•“F
Stewart Pharmaceuticals
• The Stewart Pharmaceuticals Corporation is considering investing in developing a drug that cures the common cold.
Corporate Strategy and the Stock Market
• There should be a connection between the stock market and capital budgeting.
• If the firm invests in a positive NPV projects, the firm’s stock price should go up.
• Create barrier to entry – Qualcomm’s patents on proprietary technology
• Introduce variations on existing products – Chrysler’s PT Cruiser
• Create product differentiation – Coca-Cola—it’s the real thing
Decision Tree for Stewart Pharmaceutical
•The firm has two decisions to make:
Βιβλιοθήκη Baidu
•To test or not to test.
•To invest or not to
• This preliminary phase will last one year and cost $1billion. Furthermore, the group believes that there is a 60% chance that tests will prove successful.
• Utilize organizational innovation – Motorola just-in-time inventory management
• Exploit a new technology – Yahoo!’s use of banner advertisements on the web