西部矿业估值模型
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2006 2007 2,161,604 3,880,011 208,073 394,875 (511,754) (597,654) (901,763) (1,284,443) 956,161 2,392,790 4 0.25 30%
2008 2,934,317 491,993 440,511 (893,691) 2,973,131
Valuation
DCF Net income 2007 EBITDA 2007 Multiple/WACC Enterprise Value Pre-money Equity Value Post-money Equity Value PE 2,941,628 14% ######## ######## ######## 10% ######## ######## ######## 6.0x 4,564,718 3.0x 4.5x 13,694,155 20,541,232 ######## ######## ######## ######## ######## 8.0x 2.0x 2.5x EV/EBITDA PB
########
3,392,359 16,961,797 33,923,593
Profit sensitivity to Metal Price
Zinc Net profit - 2007 % Lead Net profit - 2007 % Copper Net profit - 2007 % Aluminum Net profit - 2007 % -20% 22,405 2,545,238 -13.5% 9,080 2,792,817 -5.1% 31,707 2,793,486 -5.0% 12,716 2,817,242 -4.2% -10% 25,205 2,743,433 -6.7% 10,215 2,867,376 -2.5% 35,670 2,867,557 -2.5% 14,305 2,879,435 -2.1% -1% 27,726 2,921,809 -0.7% 11,236 2,934,479 -0.2% 39,238 2,934,221 -0.3% 15,736 2,935,409 -0.2% 0% 28,006 2,941,628 0.0% 11,350 2,941,628 0.0% 39,634 2,941,628 0.0% 15,895 2,941,628 0.0% 1% 28,286 2,961,448 0.7% 11,463 2,948,768 0.2% 40,030 2,949,035 0.3% 16,054 2,947,848 0.2% 10% 30,806 3,139,823 6.7% 12,485 3,013,030 2.4% 43,597 3,015,699 2.5% 17,484 3,003,821 2.1% 20% 33,607 3,338,019 13.5% 13,619 3,084,431 4.9% 47,561 3,089,771 5.0% 19,074 3,066,015 4.2%
2009 1,907,137 521,001 428,846 (252,113) 2,604,872
2010 1,764,318 540,051 47,768 (168,213) 2,183,924
2011 1,133,316 540,015 109,876 (104,642) 1,678,565
1.25
2.25
3.25
4.25
百度文库DCF valuation
Discount rate Perpetual Growth Rate PV of 2006-2011 FCFF PV of Terminal Value Enterprise Value Net Debt Minority Interest Pre-money Equity Value Post-money Equity Value Implied PE-07 EV/EBITDA 10% 0% 9,343,379 ######## ######## 2,188,533 409,933 ######## ######## 8.7x 5.3x ######## ######## 7.3x 4.5x ######## ######## 6.2x 4.0x 8,951,109 8,641,326 ######## 8,586,442 6,870,124 ######## 12% 14%
Project Dragonboat - Preliminary Valuation Results
for CICC internal cc meeting Free cash flow to firm
RMB'000
EBIT*(1-T) Depreciation & Amortization Changes in working capital Capital expenditure Free cash flow to firm Valuation Date: mm beginning, 2007 discount adjust factor offering %