15个并购估值模型投资估值模型
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1.08680 22,752
330,204 8.68% 28,662
19.00% 53,388 44.62% 23,820 29,568
In Million RMB except price 330,204
883,527 1,213,731
224,689 5.40
2
68,627 31,229 37,398
65,067 42,589 22,478
563,349 7.20% 40,561
591,517 7.20% 42,589
11.00% 131,101 54.55%
71,510 59,591
11.00% 65,067 54.55%
Current
Exchange Rate
HKD
Βιβλιοθήκη Baidu
RMB
100
5.50
98.26 5.40
5
116,992 38,355 78,638
1.49559 52,580
498,545 7.69% 38,355
18.29% 116,992 51.24%
59,942 57,050
6
131,101 40,561 90,540
1,021,711 1.60327 693,740
Terminal Year
5.00
22
1,019,018 4.54
3.3 1,089,673
4.85
20
926,380 4.12
Explanations Net income was based on projected IS
Beginning BV of Equity was based on projected BS Decreasing Discount rate was set with 5-year average, that is, Growth rate at year 6 minus terminal Decreasing Discount rate was set with 5-year average, that is, Growth rate at year 6 minus terminal
3.8 1,254,775
5.58
30
1,389,570 6.18
3.7 1,221,755
5.44 5.40
28
1,296,932 5.77 5.40
3.6 1,188,734
5.29
26
1,204,294 5.36
3.5 1,155,714
5.14
24
1,111,656 4.95
3.4 1,122,694
Excess Return Valuation (DDM)
Return on Equity = Retention Ratio = Expected Equity Value growth rate = Cost of equity =
*Year End From 2006
Net Income - Equity Cost (see below) Excess Equity Return Terminal Value of Excess Equity Return Cumulated Cost of Equity (Required Rate of Return) Present Value
P/B Ratio Market Value of Equiy Value Per Share
P/E Ratio Net Income of 2006 Market Value of Equiy Value Per Share
19.07% 55.38% 10.56%
8.68%
1
53,388 28,662 24,726
3.2 1,056,653 4.70
18 833,742 3.71
3.1 1,023,632
4.56
16
741,104 3.30
3 990,612
4.41
14
648,466 2.89
3
82,707 34,529 48,178
1.28366 37,532
397,796 8.68% 34,529
19.38% 82,707 44.62% 36,901 45,806
4
99,173 36,317 62,856
1.38875 45,261
443,610 8.19% 36,317
18.96% 99,173 47.93% 47,530 51,643
1.18113 31,663
359,780 8.68% 31,229
19.71% 68,627 44.62% 30,619 38,008
4 1,320,816
5.88
34 46,319
1,574,846 7.01
3.9 1,287,796
5.73
32
1,482,208 6.60
0.132897603
Beginning BV of Equity Cost of Equity Equity Cost
Return on Equity Net Income Dividend Payout Ratio Dividends paid Retained Earnings
Equity Invested(Book Value as of 2006) =
PV of Equity Excess Return = Value of Equity = Number of shares = Value Per Share (Target Price) =
Sensitivity Analysis for Relative Valuation Multiples
330,204 8.68% 28,662
19.00% 53,388 44.62% 23,820 29,568
In Million RMB except price 330,204
883,527 1,213,731
224,689 5.40
2
68,627 31,229 37,398
65,067 42,589 22,478
563,349 7.20% 40,561
591,517 7.20% 42,589
11.00% 131,101 54.55%
71,510 59,591
11.00% 65,067 54.55%
Current
Exchange Rate
HKD
Βιβλιοθήκη Baidu
RMB
100
5.50
98.26 5.40
5
116,992 38,355 78,638
1.49559 52,580
498,545 7.69% 38,355
18.29% 116,992 51.24%
59,942 57,050
6
131,101 40,561 90,540
1,021,711 1.60327 693,740
Terminal Year
5.00
22
1,019,018 4.54
3.3 1,089,673
4.85
20
926,380 4.12
Explanations Net income was based on projected IS
Beginning BV of Equity was based on projected BS Decreasing Discount rate was set with 5-year average, that is, Growth rate at year 6 minus terminal Decreasing Discount rate was set with 5-year average, that is, Growth rate at year 6 minus terminal
3.8 1,254,775
5.58
30
1,389,570 6.18
3.7 1,221,755
5.44 5.40
28
1,296,932 5.77 5.40
3.6 1,188,734
5.29
26
1,204,294 5.36
3.5 1,155,714
5.14
24
1,111,656 4.95
3.4 1,122,694
Excess Return Valuation (DDM)
Return on Equity = Retention Ratio = Expected Equity Value growth rate = Cost of equity =
*Year End From 2006
Net Income - Equity Cost (see below) Excess Equity Return Terminal Value of Excess Equity Return Cumulated Cost of Equity (Required Rate of Return) Present Value
P/B Ratio Market Value of Equiy Value Per Share
P/E Ratio Net Income of 2006 Market Value of Equiy Value Per Share
19.07% 55.38% 10.56%
8.68%
1
53,388 28,662 24,726
3.2 1,056,653 4.70
18 833,742 3.71
3.1 1,023,632
4.56
16
741,104 3.30
3 990,612
4.41
14
648,466 2.89
3
82,707 34,529 48,178
1.28366 37,532
397,796 8.68% 34,529
19.38% 82,707 44.62% 36,901 45,806
4
99,173 36,317 62,856
1.38875 45,261
443,610 8.19% 36,317
18.96% 99,173 47.93% 47,530 51,643
1.18113 31,663
359,780 8.68% 31,229
19.71% 68,627 44.62% 30,619 38,008
4 1,320,816
5.88
34 46,319
1,574,846 7.01
3.9 1,287,796
5.73
32
1,482,208 6.60
0.132897603
Beginning BV of Equity Cost of Equity Equity Cost
Return on Equity Net Income Dividend Payout Ratio Dividends paid Retained Earnings
Equity Invested(Book Value as of 2006) =
PV of Equity Excess Return = Value of Equity = Number of shares = Value Per Share (Target Price) =
Sensitivity Analysis for Relative Valuation Multiples