中国在2010年成为全球第二大经济体-

中国在2010年成为全球第二大经济体?

FRANKFURT: China could overtake Japan as the world's second-largest economy in 2010, one year before Goldman Sachs (GS.N) Chief Economist Jim O'Neill had previously expected.

法兰克福：在2010年，中国可能超过日本成为世界第二大经济体。这比高盛（GS.N）首席经济学家吉姆奥尼尔此前的预期早了一年。

"I believe it can happen already earlier (than 2011). Maybe already in the middle of this year," O'Neill told German Sunday newspaper Welt am Sonntag, who forecast that China's economy would triple by 2020 due to 8.3 percent annual growth. "The big story in the post-crisis global economy is: China imports!"

在百分之八点三的GDP年增长率的推动下，德国星期世界报曾预计，到2020年，中国的经济将（比现在）翻三翻。奥尼尔对该报讲：“我相信这一天（中国经济超越日本）会来得更早一些（比2011年）。或许就在今年年中。最大的原因就是，在全球经济危机的后期，中国仍保持了高进口量。”

This nevertheless means that the problems in Europe will grow, the Goldman economist warned.

而这意味着欧洲的经济问题还会层出不穷。这位高盛经济学家警示道。

"Germany will continue to export too much and consume too little, and will push the ailing eurozone states against the wall with its competitiveness," he explained.

“德国依然会面对出口过多而内需不足的窘境，但凭借其超强竞争力，它会使原本就饱受病态经济状况困扰的欧元区雪上加霜。”他解释说。

O'Neill expects the euro weakness to continue, reaching $1.35 by the end of 2010, despite his prediction that the US Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates for the next two years.

尽管奥尼尔预计，两年之内美联储是不会提高利率了，但他还是认为欧元会继续疲软，到2010年底，兑美元的汇率会达到1.35。

He rejected fears, however, that an increase in Germany's debt would further harm confidence in the euro-zone, already damaged due to massive fiscal problems in Greece."The European stability pact is no longer timely and it deserves to be abolished," O'Neill said, referring to proscribed levels for fiscal debt.

希腊大量的财政问题已使欧元区受到够多的创伤了，因此奥尼尔并不担心德国负债加重会进一步损害欧元区的信心。看着欧洲稳定条约上规定的各级财政债务限额，他说：“它已经不再适用了，是该废除的时候了。”

Some economists believe capping budget deficits at 3 percent of GDP and total public debt at 60 percent of GDP acts more as a straitjacket for the economy rather than as an anchor for price stability.

条约上把财政赤字的上限设为GDP的百分之三，把公共债务总额的上限设为GDP 的百分之六十。而一些经济学家认为，这只能限制经济发展而不能起到稳定物价的作用。