2012年美国普林斯顿大学毕业典礼Michael Lewis的演讲

2012年美国普林斯顿大学毕业典礼Michael Lewis的演讲Thank you. President Tilghman. Trustees and Friends感谢Tilghman主席各位校董和朋友们Parents of the Class of 2012 wherever they put you2012年级的家长们Members of the Class of 2012普林斯顿2012年级的同学们Why don't you give yourself a round of applause?为什么不给自己一次掌声呢？So the next time you look around a church下一次你在一所教堂里and see everyone dressed in black看到大家都穿成黑色的时候it'll be awkward to do that. But enjoy the moment像这样欢呼就很尴尬了享受这一刻吧Thirty years ago I sat where you sat30年前我坐在你所坐的地方I must have listened to some older person share his life experiences我一定也听过某位年长的人分享他的人生经历I don't remember a word of it但我已经一点都不记得了I couldn't even tell you who spoke我连是谁发言都没印象了And you won't be able to either你们也不会记得吧What I do remember, vividly, is graduation而在我记忆中仍栩栩如生的是毕业I'm told you're meant to be excited, maybe even relieved他们告诉我你应该很激动或者感到轻松let you... getting out of you, and maybe all of you are先不说你们……但也许你们现在就是这样I was not. I was totally outraged我却不同我义愤填膺Here I'd gone and given them four of the best years of my life我来到这里给了他们我人生中最好的四年and this is how they rewarded me, by throwing me out而他们就是这样报答我的把我踢走At that moment I was sure of only one thing在那时我只确信一件事I was of no possible economic value to the outside world我对外面的世界没有任何经济价值I'd majored in art history, for a start我修的是艺术史那是我的起点Even then this was regarded as an act of insanity即使在当时这也被视为疯子的行为I was almost certainly less prepared than you are我为市场做的准备一定差过for the marketplace几乎在座的每一个人Yet somehow I have wound up somehow rich and famous而现在我竟摇身一变成了富人和名人Sort of. I'm going to explain对吧算是吧我将简短的描述briefly, how that happened我是如何飞黄腾达的I want you to understand just how mysterious careers can be我希望你们在走出校门追寻自己的事业前before you go out and have one yourself能够明白事业发展本身是多么神秘So I graduated from Princeton without我从普林斯顿毕业的时候having published a word of anything, anywhere从来没有在任何地方任何时间发表任何东西I didn't write for the Prince我没有为the Prince刊物or for anyone else或任何人写过任何文章But at Princeton, studying art history然而在普林斯顿大学作为艺术史系的学生I felt the first twinge of literary ambition我第一次有了在文学界施展抱负的冲动It happened while working on my senior thesis这是在我写毕业论文的时候发生的My adviser was a really gifted man我的导师是个超有天分的人professor named William Childs William Childs教授The thesis I wrote for him... I tried to explain我毕业论文的题目是how the Italian sculptor研究意大利雕塑家DonatelloDonatello used Greek and Roman sources如何借鉴了希腊和罗马资源that's actually totally beside the point其实这跟今天的题目半毛钱关系都没有but I've always wanted to tell someone只是我一直喜欢让别人知道God knows what Professor Childs actually thought of it神知道Childs教授是怎么看待这个题目的but he helped me to become engrossed但他却帮助我全心投入Actually more than engrossed, totally obsessed不只是全心投入根本就是痴迷When I handed it in I knew当我交上论文的那刻我知道了what I wanted to do for the rest of my life我这一生想要从事的事业I want to write senior theses. Or, to put it differently, to write books写高级论文或者说写书Then I went to my thesis defense然后我去了论文答辩It was just a few yards from here, in McCormick Hall地方离这不远就在McCormick厅I listened and waited for Professor Childs我等待着希望听到Childs教授告诉我to say how well written my thesis was我的论文写得多么好He didn't. And so after about 45 minutes I finally said但他没有于是等了45分钟后我终于问So. What did you think of the writing?那你怎么评价我的写作呢？Put it this way, he said. Never try to make a living at it这么说吧他说千万不要靠这个谋生And I didn't, not really所以我放弃了其实不是I did what everyone does who has no idea what to do with themselves我做了所有人不知道该做什么时做的那件事I get out of the college and went to graduate school去读研究生I wrote at nights, without much effect我在晚上写作没有造成什么影响mainly because I hadn't the first clue what I should write about主要是因为我不知道该写哪些东西One night, I was invited to a dinner一天晚上我被邀请参加一个晚宴where I sat next to我身旁的女士是the wife of a big shot一个华尔街投资银行的大佬的太太at a giant Wall Street investment bank, called Salomon Brothers那家银行叫做所罗门兄弟公司She more or less forced her husband to give me a job她基本上迫使她的丈夫给了我一份工作I knew next to nothing about Salomon Brothers我那时对所罗门兄弟公司根本一无所知But Salomon Brothers happened to be但所罗门兄弟公司恰好where Wall Street was being reinvented处在华尔街转型的前线into the place we have all come to know and love today转成那个如今我们都知道并爱的样子When I got there I was assigned, almost arbitrarily当我到了那家公司我被几乎随机的分配到了to the very best job and place一份最好的工作to observe the growing madness使我有机会观察这滋长中的疯狂they turned me into the house derivatives expert他们把我变成一个衍生产品的内部专家A year and a half later Salomon Brothers was handing me一年半以后所罗门兄弟a check for hundreds of thousands of dollars开给我数十万美元的支票to give advice about derivatives to professional investors让我给专业投资者提供有关衍生产品的咨询Now I had something to write about Salomon Brothers现在我有东西可写了所罗门兄弟公司Wall Street had become so unhinged华尔街已经变得如此的精神错乱that it was paying recent Princeton graduates它会给普林斯顿一个who knew nothing about money small fortunes对金钱一窍不通的新毕业生一大笔钱to pretend to be experts about money来假扮理财专家I'd stumbled into my next senior thesis我误打误撞找到了自己的下一部高级论文I called up my father. I told him我打给我爸爸I was going to quit this job我告诉他我要辞掉that now promised me millions of dollars这个百万美元的工作to write a book for an advance of 40 grand来写一本只有4万美元预付款的书There was a long pause on the other end of the line电话那边沉默了很久You might just want to think about that, he said也许你该再考虑一下他说Why? I asked为什么？我问You could stay at Salomon Brothers 10 years, make your fortune在所罗门兄弟公司再干10年赚一大笔钱and then write your books, he said然后再写你的书他说But I didn't need to think about it我根本不需要考虑I knew what intellectual passion felt like我知道知性表达的激情是什么感觉because I'd felt it here, at Princeton因为在这里普林斯顿and I wanted to feel it again我曾感受过而我想重燃那份激情I was 26 years old. Had I waited until I was 36我那时26岁如果我真的等到36岁I would never have done it我将永远无法写成那本书I would have forgotten the feeling, and would feel too risky我会已经忘记了那种感觉我会觉得太冒险The book I wrote was called Liar's Poker我的这本书名叫《说谎者的扑克牌》It sold a million copies卖了100万册I was 28 years old. I had a career, a little fame我那时28岁我有了一项事业一点名气a small fortune and a new life narrative一笔财富和一个新的生命传奇All of a sudden people were telling me I was a born writer突然间所有的人都告诉我我天生就是作家的料This was absurd. Even I could see there was这太扯淡了即使我都能看的明白another more true narrative, with luck as its theme有另一种更真实的传奇它的主题是运气What were the odds of being seated那顿晚宴刚好坐在at that dinner next to that Salomon Brothers lady?所罗门兄弟女士身旁的几率有多大呢？Of landing inside the best Wall Street firm空降在一个最好的华尔街公司从而有机会to write the story of an age?写这个时代的故事的几率有多大呢？Of landing in the seat正好坐在一个可以俯瞰行业全景的职位上的with the best view of the business?几率又有多大呢？碰巧遇到这样父母Of having parents who didn't disinherit me没有与我断绝关系而只是叹了口气说but instead sighed如果你非要这样就去做吧and said do it if you must?这样的几率又是多大呢？Of having had that sense of must kindled inside me有幸心中有被普林斯顿艺术史教授点燃的by a professor of art history at Princeton?那种非做不可的激情的几率又有多大呢？Of having been let into Princeton in the first place?而最初能够入读普林斯顿的几率又是多大呢？This isn't just false humility. It's false humility with a point我不是在装谦虚我是在有目的的装谦虚My case illustrates how success is always rationalized我的经历表明了成功一直是如何被世人理解的People really don't like to hear success explained away as luck人们真的不喜欢听到的成功被归结到运气上面especially successful people尤其是成功人士As they age, and succeed当他们年龄增长当他们步向成功people feel their success was somehow inevitable他们觉得自己的成功根本是历史的必然They don't want to acknowledge他们不愿承认机会事件the role played by accident in their lives在他们生命中所扮演的角色There is a reason for this他们这么认为是有原因的the world does not want to acknowledge it either这个世界也不愿意承认运气的角色I wrote a book about this, called Moneyball为这我写了一本书叫《点球成金》It was ostensibly about baseball but was in fact about something else这表面上是写棒球其实是在写别的东西There are poor teams and rich teams in professional baseball在职棒里有穷的球队和富的球队and they spend radically different sums of money on their players他们用在球员身上的钱有巨额的差异When I wrote my book the richest team当我写这本书的时候职棒里最富的球队the New York Yankees, was then纽约洋基队spending about $120 million on its 25 players在它的25名球员身上花费约1.2亿美元The poorest team, the Oakland A's而最穷的队奥克兰A队的花费They was spending about $30 million大约是3000万美元And yet the Oakland team was winning more games然而奥克兰队却赢了比洋基多or as many games as the New York Yankees或者说和洋基一样多的比赛Then more games than every other team并超过其他任何一家all of them were richer than they were比奥克兰队更富有的球队This isn't supposed to happen. In theory这本是不应发生的理论上讲rich teams should buy the best players and win all the time有钱的球队应该买最好的球员并赢得所有比赛But the Oakland team had figured something out但奥克兰队发现了一个that no one else figured out其他人没有发现的秘密the rich teams didn't really understand有钱的球队并不真正明白谁是最好的球员who the best baseball players were. The players were misvalued球员们被错估了And the biggest single reason they were misvalued而他们被错估的根本原因在于was that the experts did not pay sufficient attention专家们没有在棒球成功中to the role of luck in baseball success给予运气足够的重视Players got given credit for things they did that球员们因他们基于其他人的好表现上depended on the performance of others做的事情而得到称赞pitchers got paid for winning games投手的身价由胜场决定hitters got paid for knocking in runners on base击球手的身价由送垒上跑者得分决定Players got blamed and credited for events beyond their control球员们因他们无法控制的事件而受到批评或称赞Where balls that got hit happened to land on the field, for example比如说他们击中的球恰好落在场地的哪个位置So forget baseball, forget sports放下棒球和体育不谈Here you had these corporate employees, paid millions of dollars a year现在你有一批企业员工年薪几百万美元They were doing exactly the same job他们做的事和他们行业里其他人that people in their business done for more than one century一直以来做的事没有任何差别In front of millions of people有几百万人评价他们的一举一动each of them think they are an expert他们中的每一个人都认为on what are good baseball plaers他们是成为优秀棒球运动员方面的专家They had statistics attached to every move they made on their job他们做的每一件事都有数据统计And yet they were misvalued但他们却被错估了because the wider world was blind to their luck因为这个世界忽视了他们的运气成分So I think you have to ask所以你不得不问if a professional athlete paid millions of dollars a year如果一个百万美元身价的can be misvalued who can't be?职业球员可以被错估那谁不会被错估呢？If the supposedly pure meritocracy of professional sports如果完全奉行精英主义的职业体坛can't distinguish between lucky and good, who can?无法区分好运和优异谁又能够区分呢？The Moneyball story has practical implications《点球成金》这个故事具有实际意义If you use better data, you can find better values如果你使用更好的数据你可以找到更好的价值there are always market inefficiencies to exploit, and so on总会存在价值有待挖掘的市场低效配置等等But it has a broader and less practical message但它有一个更广泛而不那么实际的信息don't be deceived by life's outcomes不要被生活的结果蒙骗Life's outcomes, while not entirely random生活的结果虽不是完全随机的have a huge amount of luck baked into them却掺杂了很多运气成分在其中Above all, recognize that if you have had success最重要的是要认识到如果你获得成功you have also had luck, and with luck comes obligation你也同时曾获得好运而运气带来义务You owe a debt, and not just to your Gods你欠了一笔债不只是欠你的神You owe a debt to the unlucky你也欠那些没你那么好运的人的债I make this point because—along with this speech我特别提出这一点是因为和这个演讲一样it is something that will be easy for you to forget这将是你很容易遗忘的东西I now live in Berkeley, California我现在住在加州伯克利A few years ago, just a few blocks from my home几年前就在离我家几个街区远的地方a pair of researchers in the加大心理系的Cal psychology department staged an experiment几个研究人员搞了一个实验They began by grabbing students like you他们像抓小白鼠一样to use like lab rats找来了一批学生Then they broke the students into teams, segregated by sex然后他们给学生分组按性别分开Three men, or three women, per team每组三个男生或者三个女生Then they put these teams of three into a room然后他们让这样的小组进到房间里and arbitrarily assigned one member of the team to be the leader然后随机选取三人中的一个作为组长Then they gave them some complicated moral problem to solve然后他们让他们处理各种复杂的道德问题say what should be done about academic cheating比如说应该如何对待学术造假or how to regulate drinking on campus或者如何控制校园酗酒问题Exactly 30 minutes into the problem-solving在他们开始解决问题30分钟时the researchers interrupted each group研究人员们会打断各组They entered the room bearing a plate of cookies. Four cookies他们会拿着一盘饼干进入房间The team consisted of three people总共四块小组里有三个人and there were these four cookies但却有四块饼干Every team member obviously got one cookie显然每个成员分到了一块but that left a fourth cookie, just sitting there但还剩下第四块放在那儿It should have been awkward. But it wasn't这本应该是个尴尬的处境但事实并非如此With incredible consistency每个组的表现难以置信的一致the person arbitrarily appointed leader of the group那个被随机任命做组长的人grabbed the fourth cookie, and ate it拿了第四块饼干并把它吃了Not only ate it, but ate it with gusto不仅吃了而且吃的津津有味lips smacking, mouth open, drool at the corners of their mouths咂咂做响大嚼特嚼口水横流In the end all that was left of the extra cookie最后那块饼干剩下的were crumbs on the leader's shirt只有组长衣领上的饼干渣了So this leader had performed no special task这位组长没有任何丰功伟绩He had no special virtue也没有过人的美德He'd been chosen at random, 30 minutes earlier他只是30分钟前随机被选的His status was nothing but luck他的身份除了运气什么都没有But it still left him with the sense that the cookie should be his但他仍然觉得饼干应该是他的This experiment helps to explain Wall Street bonuses and CEO pay这个实验有助于解释华尔街的奖金和CEO薪酬and I'm sure lots of other human behavior我也确信它还可以解释很多人类行为This is how people behave when they blind there luck这就是人们掩盖他们的幸运所做出的表现But it also is relevant to you但它同时也和普林斯顿大学的to new graduates of Princeton University新毕业生有关Because in a general sort of way通过某种一般性的方式you have been appointed the leader of the group你已被任命为小组领袖Your appointment may not be entirely arbitrary你的任命不一定是完全随机的But you must sense its arbitrary aspect但你必须意识到它的随机的那一面you are the lucky few你们是少数的幸运儿Lucky in your parents幸运在于你有这样的父母lucky in your country幸运在于你有这样的国家lucky that a place like Princeton exists幸运在于有普林斯顿这样的地方that can take in lucky people专门吸引幸运的人introduce them to other lucky people把他们介绍给其他幸运的人and increase their chances of becoming even luckier并增加他们更加幸运的机会Lucky that you live in the richest society the world has ever seen幸运在于你正处于世界历史上最富饶的社会in a time when no one actually expects you处于一个没有人会要求你为任何事to sacrifice your interests to anything牺牲自己的利益的时代All of you have been faced with the extra cookie你们都面对着那块多出来的饼干All of you will be faced with many more of them你们也将面对更多In time you will find it easy to assume随着时间的推移你会发现你很容易觉得that you deserve the extra cookie你本来就配得那块多出来的饼干For all I know, you may deserve the extra cookie就我所知你可以这样认为But you'll be happier, and the world will be better off但你可以更快乐这个世界也可以变得更美好if you at least pretend that you don't如果你能够至少假装你不配So never forget, In the nation's service永远不要忘记为国效力In the service of all nations为万国效力Thank you. And good luck谢谢祝你们好运。