发展经济学第七章

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Figure 7.3 Proportion of Urban Population by Region, 1950-2030
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Figure 7.4 Megacities: Cities with Ten Million or More Inhabitants
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Figure 7.10 Components of Migration in Selected Countries
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Toward an Economic Theory of Rural-Urban Migration
• A verbal description of the Todaro model
– Migration is a rational decision – The decision depends on expected rather than actual wage differentials – The probability of obtaining a city job is inversely related to the urban unemployment rate – High rates of migration are outcomes of rural urban imbalances
• Urbanization: trends and projections
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Figure 7.1 Urbanization and Per Capital Income in Selected Countries
Figure 7.8 Importance of Informal Employment in Selected Cities
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Figure 7.9 Youth Unemployment Rates, 1995 and 2005
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Figure 7.6 Annual Growth of Urban and Slum Populations, 1990-2001
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收入预期与迁移决策
• Yu(t ) ——城市部门工人的平均收入，
• Y r(t ) ——农村劳动力的平均收入 • n——迁移计划的时期数， • r——表示贴现率， • C(O)——迁移的成本， • p(t)——在城市平均收入水平上找到工资工 作的概率，那么迁移的决策取决于
Old generation: the petty bourgeoisie
V (O )
t
n
0
[p(t ) Yu(t ) Yr(t )] e
rt
dt C(O )
Figure 7.12 The Harris-Todaro Migration Model
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印度的城市化仅仅 30%，但也与贫民窟 扩大同步
左上：铁路边的贫民窟 右下：公路边的贫民窟 左下：露宿街头乞丐群体
Table 7.1 Population of the Largest and Second-Largest Cities in Selected Countries (millions)
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Informal Sector
p
City formal
Agri.
1-p
q
Informal sector
1-q
unemployment
Yu YF p YI (1 p ) pw (1 p ) qw 1
• The current view is that this migration is greater than the urban areas’ abilities to
– Create jobs
– Provide social services
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Chapter 7
Urbanization and Rural-Urban Migration: Theory and Policy
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The Migration and Urbanization Dilemma
– Indiscriminate educational expansion fosters increased migration and unemployment
– Wage subsidies and scarcity factor pricing can be counterproductive – Programs of integrated rural development should be encouraged
• A Diagrammatic Presentation
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Figure 7.11 Schematic Framework for Analyzing the Rural-to-Urban Migration Decision
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Figure 7.6 Annual Growth of Urban and Slum Populations, 1990-2001
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A Comprehensive Migration and Employment Strategy
• • • • • Create a urban-rural balance Expand small, labor intensive industries Eliminate factor-price distortion Choose appropriate technologies Modify the linkage between education and employment • Reduce population growth • Decentralize authority
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Figure 7.5 Estimated and Projected Urban and Rural Population of the More and Less Developed Regions, 1950-2030
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The Role of Cities
• Agglomeration economies, Urbanization economies, Localization economies
• Industrial districts • Efficient urban scale
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Toward an Economic Theory of Rural-Urban Migration
LM WA (W M ) LUS
Where WA is agricultural income, LM is employment in manufacturing LUS is total urban labor pool WM is the urban minimum wage
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Case study：China’s migration labors
Stage:
Before the Agri-Reform
In 1980s:TVE Arter 1992s
n
0
[p(t ) Yu(t ) Yr(t )] e rtdt C(O )
委内瑞拉首都街景
上图：城市化达到90%与贫民窟密布 下图：贫民区群众进入首都阻断交通
巴西的城市化超过80%，城市 中形成了大型贫民窟
左上：圣保罗贫民窟一角 右下：贫民窟的街道 左下：远景是城市中心区的高楼大 厦，中景是近郊的外资企业，近景 是杂乱无章的贫民窟
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Figure 7.2 Urbanization across Time and Income Levels
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Toward an Economic Theory of Rural-Urb来自百度文库n Migration
• Five Policy Implications
– Reduction of urban bias – Imbalances in expected income opportunities is crucial
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The Urban Informal Sector
• Importance of the informal sector in developing economies
• Policies for the Urban Informal Sector • Women in the Informal Sector
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Migration and Development
• Rural-to-urban migration was viewed positively until recently
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The Urban Giantism Problem
• First- city bias
• Causes of Urban Giantism
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V (O )
t