中国的大国之路

中国的大国之路

CHINA IN THE WORLD ECONOMY 作者：英国《金融时报》首席经济评论员马丁•沃尔夫

China is a rapidly emerging economic superpower. Yet China is still far from a high-income country. What does this novel combination mean for China itself and for its place in the world?

中国是一个正在迅速崛起的经济超级大国。但它距离成为高收入国家仍有很长的一段路要走。对中国自身及其在世界上的地位而言，这一不寻常的组合意味着什么？

In setting out to address that question, we must start with the obvious point. A country with such a huge and growing impact on the world cannot ignore its effect on others. The defining characteristic of such a superpower is that it cannot expect to remain a free rider. What it does and does not do has consequences for the entire global system. As William Shakespeare might have said, China has achieved greatness and now has responsibility thrust upon it.

要解答这个问题，我们必须从显而易见的一点出发。一个对世界拥有巨大且越来越大影响的国家，不能忽视自己对其它国家的影响。这样一个超级大国的关键特征是，它不能指望继续“搭便车”。中国无论做什么与不做什么，都会对整个全球体系产生影响。套用威廉•莎士比亚(William Shakespear)的话说，中国已达到了伟大的境界，如今面对着随之而来的责任。

Defining China’s interests 界定中国的利益

China needs to develop a policy not just for its interaction with the global economic system, but also for the development of that system. In doing so, it will have to start from a definition of its national interests, values and objectives.

I would argue that China’s overwhelming national interest lies in maintaining a stable, peaceful and co-operative global political and economic environment. It is only in such an environment that China can be confident of maintaining rapid economic development.

中国需要研究出一套政策，不仅面向其与全球经济体系的互动，也服务于全球经济体系的发展。为此，它必须首先界定自己的国家利益、价值观与目标。我认为，中国至高无上的国家利益，在于维持稳定、和平与合作的全球政治与经济环境。只有在这样的环境中，中国才能有信心保持快速的经济发展。

How should China, as one of the world’s leading powers, seek to achieve that objective? Broadly, I would argue that this interest would be best secured via

作为全球领先大国之一的中国，应如何实现这一目标？我认为，概括地说，发展一套有规则可依的基于制度的全球体系，最能保障这一利益。我想围绕这个总目标探讨四大政策领

development of a rules-governed, institutionally-based global system. With this general objective in mind, I want to discuss four principal areas of policy: finance; money; trade and direct investment; and natural resources. This is not an exhaustive list, by any means. But these are some of the principal issues now facing China. 域：金融、货币、贸易与直接投资、以及自然资源。这并非一份全面的清单，但它们是中国如今面临的一些主要问题。

Global finance 全球金融

In the long run, China is likely to emerge as the most important player in the global financial system. Its objectives must be, first, to create a domestic financial system that is capable of supporting its own economic development; second, to help promote a global financial system that supports a rapidly growing and reasonably stable world economy; and, third, to protect the former – the domestic financial system – from the excesses of the latter – the global financial system. This is, in fact, a huge challenge, because of the complex interaction between global and domestic finance.

长期来看，中国可能成为全球金融体系最重要的参与者。它的目标必须是：首先，创造一个能够支持国内经济发展的国内金融体系；其次，帮助完善全球金融体系，使其支持世界经济的快速增长与平稳运行；第三，保护前者（国内金融体系），使其免受后者（全球金融体系）无节制行为的影响。考虑到国际与国内金融的复杂互动，这其实是一项巨大的挑战。

I would argue that in achieving this complex reconciliation China’s policies should be guided by the following four broad principles.

我认为，要实现这一复杂的平衡，中国的各项政策应以下述三大原则为指导。

First, the Chinese authorities should assume that in the long run, possibly as long as a generation, China’s financial system will not only be fully integrated into global finance, but is likely to emerge as one of its hubs.

首先，中国政府应该假定，长期而言（也许有一代人之久），中国的金融体系将不仅与全球金融完全整合，还可能发展成为它的中心之一。

Second, the transition to full integration will be not just lengthy, but complex and fraught. For this reason, it will take some time and needs to be carefully orchestrated. An important step along the

其次，朝向“完全整合”的过渡将不仅漫长，而且错综复杂与充满危险。鉴于此，这将需要时间，而且要精心策划。允许私人资本——尤其是外国直接投资与组合投资资本——从中国流出，将是该过程中的重要一步。银行体