财务报表分析与证券投资-姜国华(ppt48页)

He wrote a famous mathematics book In one chapter he invented double-entry accounting system He taught Leonardo Da Vinci perspective and proportionality. The knowledge was used to paint “the Last Supper”
Billion RMB
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Market Size relative to NYSE
2004-12-31 No. of Stocks Market Cap (bil ion USD)
12000 11500 11000 10500 10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500
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or Dot.bomb-NASDAQ 1998-2002
5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
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The Three Major Stock Exchanges
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学过财务报表分rial Average 1930-2002
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DJIA, NASDAQ 1990-2002
14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
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Back to Square One: DJIA 1998-2002
财务报表分析与证券投资
姜国华
Guohua Jiang
北京大学光华管理学院会计学副教授
Associate Professor of Accounting Guanghua School of Management Peking University
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The Father of Accounting-Luca Pacioli (1445-1517)
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Number of Stocks at Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges
Number of Stocks 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 8 14 53 183 291 323 530 745 851
1373 1285 1223 1154 1086 947
25000
20000
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#of listed fFirms Market Cap. Billions
5000
0 NYSE AMEX NASDAQ US
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The Regulator of U.S. Stock Market



SEC, the Securities and Exchange Commission Arthur Levitt, commissioner, 1993-2000 in the Clinton administration Numbers Game Speech, 1998

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International Accounting Standards
International Accounting Standards Committee (IASC) Based at London Independent and privately funded Meant to design a set of worldly accepted accounting standards Committee serve as an advisory board member
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Share types in China
Shares Tradable Non-tradable
Individual
Foreign
Legal person
State
A share
B share
H, N, S, … Share
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Share Structures of Chinese Listed Companies (December, 2001)
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The Current SEC Commissioners
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Who Issue American Accounting Standards?

FASB: Financial Accounting Standards Board Set up in 1973 to replace Accounting Principle Board (APB) An independent, private organization Standards issued recognized by SEC GAAP: Generally Accepted Accounting Standards 7 concept statements (principles) e.g., No. 7 (February 2000) Using cash flow information and present value in accounting measurements 148 statements of standards (rules) by the year of 2003 e.g., No. 1 (December 1973) Disclosure of foreign currency translation information
100 80 60 40 20 0
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04
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Market Capitalization
Market Cap. (A Share) 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
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Large Shareholder expropriation of minority shareholders/Tunneling An Example, Jiang, Lee and Yue, (2005)
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序号 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
International Accounting Standards 41 standards up to the year of 2003 e.g., IAS 2. Inventory, January 1, 1995
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“Big Four” International Accounting Firms
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Market Performance
Shanghai A Share Index
Profitability of Chinese Listed Firms: 1992-2004
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ROE
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Stock Market Capitalization/GDP(%)
Nation Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Brazil Canada Chile Egypt France Germany India 1980 0.11 0.38 0.03 0.09 0.05 0.46 0.34 0.01 0.09 0.09 0.05 1990 0.37 0.17 0.31 0.08 1.22 0.5 0.06 0.24 0.2 0.16 1999 0.15 1.13 0.17 0.82 0.45 1.22 1.05 0.29 1.17 0.67 0.46 Nation Italy Japan Netherla nds Norway South Africa Spain Sweden Swissla nd U.K. U.S. 1980 0.07 0.33 0.19 0.54 1.23 0.17 0.11 0.44 0.38 0.46 1990 0.013 1.64 0.5 0.23 1.33 0.41 0.37 1.93 0.81 0.54 1999 0.68 0.95 2.03 0.7 1.2 0.69 1.77 3.23 2.25 1.52
1990
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Amount of Capital Raised Through Stock Markets
Amount of Capital Raised 160 140 120
Billion RMB
合格境外机构投资者（QFII）名称 瑞士银行有限公司 （UBS Limited） 野村证券株式会社 （Nomura Securities Co., Ltd） 花旗环球金融有限公司 （Citigroup Global Markets Limited） 摩根士丹利国际有限公司 （Morgan Stanley & International Limited） 高盛公司 （Goldman Sachs & Co.） 香港上海汇丰银行有限公司 （The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited） 德意志银行 （Deutsche Bank AG） 荷兰商业银行（ING Bank N.V.） 摩根大通银行（JPMorgan Chase Bank） 瑞士信贷第一波士顿（香港）有限公司（Credit Suisse First Boston (Hong Kong) Limited） 日兴资产管理公司（Nikko Asset Management Co., Ltd） 渣打银行香港分行（Standard Chartered Bank Hong Kong） 恒生银行有限公司（Hang Seng Bank Limited） 大和证券SMBC株式会社（Daiwa Securities SMBC Co.,Ltd） 美林国际（Merrill Lynch International ） 雷曼兄弟国际（欧洲）公司（Lehman Brithers International Europe） 比尔盖茨-美林达基金（Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation ） 荷兰银行（ABN AMRO Bank N.V.） 法国兴业银行（Societe Generale） 巴克莱银行（Barclays Bank PLC） 法国巴黎银行（BNP Parisbas） 德国德雷斯顿银行（Dresdner Bank Aktiengesellschaft） 富通银行（Fortis Bank） 加拿大鲍尔集团（Power Corporation of Canada） 东方汇理银行（CALYON S.A.） 景顺资产管理公司（INVESCO Asset Management Limited）
Non-tradable (0.1 billion shares): State Shares Domestic Legal Person Shares Other non-tradable Shares Total non-tradable Tradable: A Shares B Shares H/N and other shares Total Tradable: Total: 2410.61 663.17 331.07 3404.85 1318.13 163.09 331.94 1813.16 5218.01 46.20％ 12.71％ 6.4% 65.25％ 25.26% 3.13% 6.36% 34.75% 100%


Ernst Young (worldwide revenue 2002: $10.1 billions, 4.3 billions in the U.S.) PriceWaterhouseCoopers Deloitte & Touche KPMG
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中华人民共和国证券监督管理委员会 (Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission)
NYSE 2747 19600
SH+SZ 1373 453
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2-Jan-91 28-Oct-91 20-Aug-92 15-Jun-93 11-Apr-94 8-Feb-95 30-Nov-95 8-Oct-96 15-Aug-97 25-Jun-98 6-May-99 17-Mar-00 18-Jan-01 4-Dec-01 24-Oct-02 2-Sep-03 15-Jul-04