管理学原理英文版课件Chapter 4Foundations of Decision Making

They seek solutions that satisfactory and sufficient (just good enough).
Making things easier
It is impossible for humans to process and understand all of the information necessary to meet the test of rationality
What are our choices?
Step 4 is to list all the alternatives that could succeed in resolving the problem.
What options do we have?
So many choices…
When we face a complex problem, most of us reduce the problem to something we can readily understand
This is good enough for me!
Most people can’t process a ton of information to reach an optimal solution, so they satisfice.
And the review is not exhaustive – only continue until they find an alternative that is sufficient (good enough) to solve the problem
Taking shortcuts
But many problems are new or unusual and have to be made with incomplete information (ill-structured problems)
Types of decisions
Programmed decisions – a repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach
Policy – a general rule that establishes parameters for making decisions
Types of decisions
Nonprogrammed decisions – decisions that must be custom-made to solve unique and nonrecurring problems
• There are 5 things that can get in the way of your creative skills:
1. Expected evaluation – focusing on how your work is going to be evaluated
2. Surveillance – being watched while you work 3. External motivators – external rewards 4. Competition – facing a win/lose situation
decisions.
What’s the problem?
Step 1 is to identify the problem A problem occurs when there is a difference
between how things are and how you want things to be
Time to get creative
When we a faced with a problem, we often have to be creative.
We need the ability to produce new and useful ideas
I’m not very creative
But, I’m not sure!
When decisions makers do not have full knowledge of the problem and can’t guess probabilities for the alternative outcomes, they must make the decision under uncertainty.
In order to avoid information overload, we rely on judgmental shortcuts or heuristics.
Types:
Availability Representative Escalation of commitment
Biased decisions
So, they simplify the model including only the essential features of the problem – this process is know as bounded rationality.
Within the limits
Decision makers often focus on the easy-tofind choices
select the choice that maximizes the goal.
That’s a big task
Note: the assumption of rationality does NOT usually hold true!
Certainty implies that a manager is able to make an accurate decision because they already know the outcome of every option.
Procedure – a series of interrelated sequential steps that can be used to respond to a well-structured problem
Rule – an explicit statement that tells managers what they ought or ought not to do
In the real world, this doesn’t often happen
Risky Business
Since we don’t always know the outcome of each of our choices, we must assign a probability to the potential outcomes that may occur – that is, we must deal with risk.
Manager uses this type of decision for nonrecurring problems
• Availability heuristic – tendency to base judgments on information that is readily available
• Representative heuristic – tendency to match the likelihood of an outcome with something that they are familiar with
with your peers 5. Constrained choices – limits on how you can
do your work
There’s not enough information
Most of us make decisions without complete information
Perfectly rational
A decision maker who is perfectly rational is fully objective and logical.
They defines the problem carefully Have a clear and specific goal Steps in the process consistently lead one to
Step 5 is to analyze each option listed in step 4.
We use the criteria in step 2 to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of each alternative
Which one is the best?
What’s left?
The 8th and final step is to appraise the result of our decision.
Did it correct the problem? Did you get the result you wanted?
What decisions have you made Lately?
Used when the problem is well-structured problem
Manager can follow a procedure when responding to the problem
Managers follow rules and policies
Programmed Decisions
Do you always follow this process?
Why or why not?