新西兰奶牛牧场管理系统

Average farm area (effective)
平均牧场有效面积 （公顷）
Cows milked/hectare
挤奶牛 （头）/公顷
Average Production平均生产 Litres/cow 奶（公升）/奶牛 Kg milkfat/cow 奶脂肪（公斤）/奶牛 Kg protein/cow / 奶蛋白（公斤）/奶牛 Milksolids/cow奶固体（公斤）/奶牛
牛群大（˜350 350头）
Low labour use
牛群小（˜100 100头）
High labour use
低劳动力
Low capital investment
高劳动力
High capital investment
低成本
Export focus – world prices
高成本
Domestic market – price support
Dairy Farm Management Systems in New Zealand
新西兰奶牛牧场管理系统
Presentation to Chinese Ministry of Agriculture Dairy Study Programme 演讲 中国农业部奶业系统考查团
Jeremy Neild B.Ag.Sc., M.Ag.Sc. Consultancy Manager 顾问经理 Agriculture Services Limited
•New Zealand share of international dairy trade ~33%
新西兰占有全球乳品贸易的˜33%
•Access restricted by quotas and/or tariffs
进口被配额和关税约束
•Internal support and export subsidies
3,710 3 710 184 139 323
Trend in the Number of Herds & Average g Herd Size for the Last 30 Seasons
三十个挤奶季节内牛群数目与每牛群平均奶牛头数发展趋向
Source: LIC NZ Dairy Statistics新西兰奶业统计 家蓄改良工司
$/奶固体 （$/公顷）
• There is a strong correlation between operating profit ($/ha) and operating expenses ($/kg MS).经营利润和经营支出中有强的相关因素 • A herds ranking on average cost of production is the single best i di t of indicator f its it overall ll ranking ki on profit. fit 牛群的平均成本等级是总 经营利润等级的最佳因素
Annual Pasture Growth & Feed Demand on a Seasonal Supply Dairy Farm 季节性奶牛牧场年人工草场供给与需求曲线
Pasture Grown: 13 tn DM/ha 85% utilisation 350 kg Milksolids/Cow
Source: LIC Dairy Statistics 新西兰奶业统计 家蓄改良工司
Comparison of New Zealand & Overseas Dairy Production Systems 新西兰奶牛牧场系统和国外牧场系统对比
New Zealand 新西兰
Grazed pasture
Source: LIC NZ Dairy Statistics 新西兰奶业统计 家蓄改良工司
Drivers for New Zealand’s Dairy Farming System 新西兰奶牛牧场系统发展主要动力
New Zealand small population 90% New Zealand 新西兰人口少 production exported 新西兰90%产出是出口 Export orientation World commodity prices 全球货品价格 产品是针对出口市场 Price volatility y 价格波动 Manufactured products 加工货品 World prices Focus on cost of production 全球价格 交点方在成本上
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 AUG
Kg DM/Ha Daily y
Pasture
2.6 Cows/Ha
3.6 Cows/Ha
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
ห้องสมุดไป่ตู้JUL
Source: Ian Brookes, Massey University 梅西大学 注：载蓄量 2.6牛/公顷 或3.6牛/公顷， 产量13 顿干物质/公顷， 85%利用，350公斤奶固体/牛；
Range in Farm Performance 牧场年表现分布
Bottom Quartile 底四分之一 Stocking rate 载蓄量 Cows/FTE 母牛/劳动力 Kg MS/cow 公斤奶固体/母牛 K MS/ha Kg MS/h 公斤奶/公顷 Gross Farm Revenue 牧场年毛收入 $/kg MS （$/奶固体） Op Ex $/kg MS 经营支出 （$/奶固体） Op Profit $/kg MS 经营利润 Op Profit $/ ha 经营利润 2.8 129 286 786 $7.71 $5 92 $5.92 $1.79 $1,368 Mean 中间 2.8 134 331 939 $7.94 $4 90 $4.90 $3.04 $2,853 Top Quartile 顶四分之一 3.1 149 367 1 138 1,138 $8.14 $4 21 $4.21 $3.93 $4,417
从1997/98 每群平均生产增
6,150 kg MS/year 6.9%
公斤奶固体/年
More hectares 牧地增 More cows 奶牛增多 Higher stocking rate
载蓄量增多
4.5 ha 公顷 14.8 cows 牛 0.02 cows/ha
牛/公顷
4.5% 5.5% 1.0% 1.7% 2.6%
March 2010
Dairy Farming in New Zealand 新西兰奶牛牧场
Number of dairy herds 奶牛群 Average number of cows/herd
平均 奶牛 （头）/牛群
2008/2009 / 11,618 366 131 hectares 2.83
More milksolids/cow
每头牛奶固体增多
5.3 kg/cow
公斤/牛
More milksolids/ha
每公顷奶固体增多
22.6 kg MS
公斤奶固体
Source: Dairy NZ
新西兰 奶业
Herd Size Distribution 牛群大小分布
<150 cows 头牛 150‐249 cows 250‐349 cows 350‐449 cows 450‐549 cows 550‐649 cows 650‐749 cows 750‐949 cows 950+ cows Total 总数 群 1,245 3,263 2,578 1,520 1 044 1,044 652 418 465 433 11 618 11,618 10.7% 28.1% 22.2% 13.1% 8 9% 8.9% 5.6% 3.6% 4.0% 3.7%
Cost of production 成本
International Dairy y Trade 国际乳品贸易
•~5% 5% of f world ld milk ilk production d i traded d d internationally i i ll
国际乳品贸易只占有全球奶产的˜5%
Drivers for New Zealand’s D i Farming Dairy F i System S t 新西兰奶牛牧场系统发展主要动力
Manufactured products 加工货品 Allows seasonal production 利用季节性生产模性 Calving in the spring 春季产犊 Dry over the winter 冬季停挤奶 Reproductive R d ti efficiency ffi i 繁殖效能 Solids – rather than milk yield 重点放在奶固体不在产奶量 Low cost pasture based feeding system 用低成本放牧人工草场来饲养 Modest supplementation with expensive grain based concentrate三 用少量成本高的谷粒类饲料
季节
Average Dairy Company Total Payout
平均乳品公司总付出
Dairy Company Payout (inflation adjusted)*
乳品公司付出（膨胀调整过） $/公斤奶固体 4.81 6.18 6 43 6.43 4.33 4.91 5.15 4.44 4.73 7.82 5 14 5.14
国内支持和出口补贴
• New Zealand reliance on world commodity prices
新西兰依靠全球乳品价格
Trend in Prices Received for Milksolids for the Last 20 Seasons
近二十个产奶季节内奶固体价格的趋向
Season
Trend in Milksolids Production Per Cow Since 1992/93 1992/93 奶牛生产奶固体趋向
Source: LIC NZ Dairy Statistics新西兰奶业统计 家蓄改良工司
Change Over 20 Years 二十年内之变化
Increase in Production Per Herd Since 1997/98
USA/EU美/欧
Conserved forage/grains
放牧人工草场 放牧人 草场
Outdoors
保存饲草作物或谷粒
Housed
舍外
365 calving interval 产犊间隔365天 Large herds (~350 cows)
舍内
All year calving
全年产犊
Small herds (~100 cows)
针对出口‐ 全球价格
国内市场‐价格支持
New Zealand Grazing Systems 新西兰牧场放牧系统
Advantages 尤势 • Low cost per kg milksolids 每公斤奶固体成本低 • Healthy conditions for cows奶牛有良好的环境条件 • Low labour input – cows harvest their own feed劳动力成本低 ‐ 牛自 己采食 Disadvantages劣势 • Grazing limits cow intakes and yield per cow 放牧饲养牛吃草有限 影 响生产 • Shorter seasonal lactations因季节性 产奶期较短 • Yield dependent on climate奶生产量依靠气候 • Requires q g good reproductive p efficiency y需要良好繁殖效能 • Environmental issues – leaching of N and P from excreta环境问题‐ 氮 与磷从粪便滤出 • Conflict C fli t b between t managing i the th pasture t and d the th cows管理草场和草场 奶牛有一定的衝突
($/kg milksolids)
$/公斤奶固体 1999/2000 2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 3.78 5.01 5 35 5.35 3.66 4.25 4.58 4.10 4.46 7.67 5 14 5.14