麦肯锡 McKinsey-能源行业分析

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ACROSS ALL MAJOR INDUSTRY SECTORS,
NONE HAS EXHIBITED SUSTAINED
OUTPERFORMANCE ..
Economy normal range
7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders: Select
TODAY’S DISCUSSION
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• Capital markets: ruthless driver of
innovation
• Creative destruction in the Energy Industry
• What can Houston do to lead innovation in
1935
1955
1975
1995
2005E
• The S&P 500 is a
brutal, unemotional yardstick of performance
• The pace of change
is accelerating
Note: Number of exits averaged over twenty year period Source: McKinsey analysis
industries vs. economy
源自文库
Pharmaceuticals 400% 300% 200% 100%
• Companies were removed only when they merged, got
acquired or went bankrupt
* Currently 2000 data has been updated only for high tech companies
Source: McKinsey’s long-term performance database
(“pure-play”)
• Had a market cap within the top 80% of all market cap values • Companies that IPOed in last 4 years met both market cap and
pure play criteria for the last 2 years
of sales in the relevant SIC category
Companies
• U.S.-based • Belonged to a predetermined SIC code • Obtained at least 50% of their sales from specified SIC code
Network
Utilities Oil
Energy subtotal
Total
Number of companies
23 36 47 28 66 171 47 101 24 55 25 55 73
42
104 170
274
1,067
Industries
• Interesting dynamics to analyze • More than 10 players with 50%
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MARKETS WIN IN THE LONG TERM
Overall performance of S&P 500 would have been about 20% less per year…
… if it were made up of those companies on the list in 1957
Financial data (60 items) for 1,067 companies in 16 industries for the period 1962-2000*
Selection criteria
Industry Airlines Commodity Chemicals Specialty Chemicals Defense Medical Supplies Software Paper Pharmaceuticals Soap Telecommunications Transportation Semiconductors Computer hardware
Energy?
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LONG-TERM SURVIVAL IS DIFFICULT,
AND GETTING MORE SO
Implied lifetime in S&P 500 based on company exits in years
90
45 30 22 15
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HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN ANALYZED USING THE
McKINSEY LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE DATABASE (PDB)
PDB overview
Energy sectors
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ACCELERATING INNOVATION IN ENERGY
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