公司战略和净现值分析

”
the alternatives.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
“F
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
8-5
Stewart Pharmaceuticals
• The Stewart Pharmaceuticals Corporation is considering investing in developing a drug that cures the common cold.
• If the initial tests are successful, Stewart Pharmaceuticals can go ahead with full-scale production. This investment phase will cost $1,600 million. Production will occur over the next 4 years.
“A Filled circles represent
”
receipt of information
e.g. a test score in this
“B
class.
”
Do not study
“
C” The lines leading away
“D from the circles represent
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
8-2
Corporate Strategy and the Stock Market
• There should be a connection between the stock market and capital budgeting.
• This preliminary phase will last one year and cost $1billion. Furthermore, the group believes that there is a 60% chance that tests will prove successful.
• Consider AT&T’s repeated attempts to penetrate the computer-manufacturing industry.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
8-0
Chapter Outline
8.1 Corporate Strategy and Positive NPV 8.2 Decision Trees 8.3 Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis, and
Break-Even Analysis 8.4 Options 8.5 Summary and Conclusions
8-3
8.2 Decision Trees
• Allow us to graphically represent the alternatives available to us in each period and the likely consequences of our actions.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
• A corporate planning group, including representatives from production, marketing, and engineering, has recommended that the firm go ahead with the test and development phase.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyrightຫໍສະໝຸດ Baidu© 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
8-1
Corporate Strategy and Positive NPV
• Introduce new products – Apple Corporation and the mouse
• Create product differentiation – Coca-Cola—it’s the real thing
• Utilize organizational innovation – Motorola just-in-time inventory management
• Exploit a new technology – Yahoo!’s use of banner advertisements on the web
• Develop core technology – Honda and small engines
• Create barrier to entry – Qualcomm’s patents on proprietary technology
• Introduce variations on existing products – Chrysler’s PT Cruiser
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
8-4
Example of Decision Tree
Open circles represent decisions to be made.
Study finance
• If the firm invests in a positive NPV projects, the firm’s stock price should go up.
• Sometimes the stock market provides negative clues as to a new project’s NPV.