【精品报告】2020Q1中国宏观经济形势分析与预测报告-上海财经大学高等研究院

2020 3 31
1-2 1.08
2020
4 20 10%
84%
63%
1300 75%
9.3%
1-2
7.7%
1-2
1.1%
2
8.8 8.6
2020
3 30
4.9 14.2 4.7
9.5 2.1
3
21.9%
4 13.8% 6.3
1-2
7.9
1-2
3
1-2
11.8
13.5%
69.1%
2020
-8.4%
2020
........................................................................... 1
......................................................................... 26 ............................................................................. 30
2019
2020
PPI 30 -3.9% 4 30 4.9 4.9
4 PPI
3 3 PPI
-1.5% OPEC+ 4
CPI PPI
PPI CPI
CPI
PPI PPI
2020 PMI
1
PMI
2
3
1-3
5.3% 6.2% 5.9%
0.2% 0.9% 0.7%
31
5.2%
5.7% 5.7%
0.4% 0.7% 0.6%
3 PMI
47.4% 38.9% 46.7% 3 55.3% 32.3% 53.1% 3
1-3 2 2
3.9%
46.7 2
12251
40.2
44.8
4.7
2020
8561 11691 4641
4.7%
2.52
-3.9% 2013
3
38.4% 34.2%
13792 73.3% 72.6%
2
34.5%
/
46% 41%
/
72% 68% 56% 56% 55% 50%
8.8%
60% 500
2020
1 Fang, Hanming, Long Wang, and Yang Yang. (2020). Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-ncov) in china (No. w26906). National Bureau of Economic Research.
2020
6.8%
12
GDP 3
11 2 19.0%
3 2020
78580 27.3
23.7% 3 53.9
-46.8% 12
25.7
1-2
20.5%
15.8%
18.1%
44.3%
12
-43.1% 3
3
3
5.9%
15.1
32.7%
24.3%
12
3
3
-23.4% -15.0%
-20.5%
24.6
1
2
2020
2020 1 2 3 PPI
0% -0.5% -1.0%
2019
-0.3%
PPI
-0.27 -0.74 -1.79
PPI
0.35 0.38 0.32
0.1% -0.4% -1.5%
PPI
-0.6%,
PPI
74% 1 2 3
-0.4% -1.0% -2.4%
PPI
1.3% 1.4% 1.2%
2020
4782.1 -2.9%
2018
597.1
COVID-19 9432.2
-13.3%
4650.1 132.0
2020 -6.4% -11.4% -0.7% COVID-19
COVID-19
2020 -25.2% -3.7%
2020
COVID-19
2020 1 2 175.9
455.9 11.2%
-12.7% 280.0
1.2
23
2020
CPI 2019
123
7.7% 7.9% 6.2%
CPI
4.85 4.98 3.91
2019
3.6%
123
0.6% 1.1%
CPI
0.56 0.22 0.41
2019
1.5% 1.7%
2
2
CPI
1
CPI
2019
2
CPI
2
1
0.2
11 CPI
2020 2020 CPI
CPI CPI
229
29.3%
27.8% 40% 30%-40% 10%-20% 10%
34%
10%-30%
IT 20%-30%
26.8%
BOSS
78.4% 70.7% 68.2% 67.7% 67.4% 53.1% 53% 52.9%
3
12
PMI
5wk.baidu.com.9%
PMI
48.6% 37.9% 47.7% 2
47.5% 31.8%
20.6% 21.9%
2020 1 2 3
116.0% 135.2% 116.4%
CPI
2.76 3.19 2.79
2019
42.5%
CPI
2020 1 2 3
17.1% 10.9%
-0.1% 2019
4.1%
CPI
0.45 0.33 0
2020
2.2% 1.9% -1.5%
2
2020
2019 1.4
2
84.3%
82.1% 82.5%
18
2.1
55.7%
2 52.4%
297
55%
88.8% 83.5%
5033525
87.6%
1 10 2
47.3%
21 25
4 40
60
1 20 2012
23 2020
1 1 25
29
1
870
45% BOSS /
//
/
38% 39%
40%
22%
//
69% 67% 57% 54% 53% 50%
1
2
12 -26.2%
2
2019
2020 2019
3
-18.8%
2 99.0 3 91.1
3
-10.9%
1-2
16.1%
21.5
1-2
8.4
17.3%
4.7%
2020
-18.8%
2020 1-2
25.2% 1-2
6.3
28.3
10.2
1-2
3
1.1%
1-2
38.3%
16.4%
19.7%
23.5
10.6
-23.1%
104.0
101.5
2020 1 2 3 CPI
4.9% 1
8
1.3%
2013
20.3%
11
5.4% 5.2% 4.3%
CPI 2019
9.2%
CPI 2020
2
1.1%
3
18.3%
CPI
1.6% 0.9% 0.7%
CPI
5
123
4.10 4.45 3.70
CPI
1.29 0.73 0.57
9.7%
3
19.2%
-7.0% 3
3.7%
12
0.2%
3
8.0%
12
1
2
1
2
12
-8.8%
3
6.5%
12 3
6.5% 34.8%
-30.5%
3
3
-37.0% 3 18.1%
3
12
-8.9%
3
6.1%
3
12
-8.8%
3
12
30.9% 3
12
-13.2% -33.5%
-22.7% -13.9%
12 12
123
4.7% 1.1% -4.0%
0.8% -2.3% -3.5% 1 2 3
-0.8%
-2.2% -5.2%
0.3% -1.3% -2.7%
3
2019
16 -11.0%
-3.1% 14
3.3% 20
4.8 4.7 4.1
2020
7.5% 3.0%
10
2020
2020
-3%
4
-4.6%
3%
7.1%