波士顿--互联网战略资料

Fiber
105
capacity
… with increased throughput ...
103 104
102
0
RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm
Time
… and powerful network economics
Value, 100 cost
80
60
40
Value increases as the square of connections
- Warren Packard, Draper Fisher Jurvetson
RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm
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TOM SIEBEL CEO, Siebel Systems
“If you can’t generate profits, significant market share and customer satisfaction, you re out of business.”
STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET: TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS
Real Tech Conference Peter Stanger
E-COMMERCE IS DEAD
“E-Commerce Is Dead, Long Live E-Commerce” - The Industry Standard, April 2000
1895 - 1925
RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm
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FUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK
Index 120 100
Lower processing costs ...
Workers per bushel of manufactured cotton England 1770-83
F+ nc
-6-
MANY INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCING A REDEFINITION OF COMPETITIVE BOUNDARIES
1985
Microprocessors, integrated circuits,
memory chips
COMPUTER INDUSTRY
IBM , Digital
“On the B2B exchange side, I don’t think anyone will survive. They are all gone.”
RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm
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THE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRONG
Cost increases linearly with connections
Profit Loss
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 n
Value
Connections
Cost
0
2v
6v 12v
20v
30v
42v
56v
72v
90v n(n-1)v
F+0 F+ 2c F+ 3c F+ 4c
F+ 5c F+ 6c F+ 7c F+ 8c F+ 9c F+ 10c
“Going, Going, Gone: Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust” - , April 2000
“Can you build a brand online selling third-party goods? The answer is no, even though everyone used to think the answer was yes”
$123B
Travelocity
120
Expedia


100
Webvan
80
Priceline
60
eBay
40
20
Amazon
0 Peak Market Cap
ቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱ
$11.4B
All Other Amazon
eBay
Current Market Cap
… lower storage costs ...
Cost ($/MB)
Harddrive size (GB)
100 Average HD size in PC at
75 retail (GB)
50
25
0.00
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
- Bryan Rutbert, Warburg Dillon Read
“The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures. Look at - if could be the biggest living dead the public markets have ever seen.”
Computers
Operating systems
Applications software
Marketing, sales, and distribution
1995
Intel
Motorola AMD Cyrix
Common standards Time based competition
… fragmented radically IBM
RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm
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IS THE REVOLUTION OVER?
July 28, 1794
RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm
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THE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS
1860 - 1890
Dell Packard Bell
80
Price of the Model T touring car
1908-20
60
40
Price of CPU 20 computing power
$/MIPS 1982-95
0
1770
1910 1985
1775
1915 1990
1780
1920 1995
$/MB 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20