International economics 2.ppt-ch.14
Int Econ-Ch01-S2002 International Economics 国际经济学课件
Introduction to the Global EconomyGlobalization
International Economics has been an important field of study! And its importance has significantly increased in recent years. Why?
1-3
ቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱ
Introduction to the Global Economy-Globalization
There are over 190 countries in the world today (They come in all shapes and sizes)
Population and Land area:
The extent of the economic activity of a country can be measured using:
◦ Gross National Product (GNP)—value of final goods and services produced by domestic factors of production.
The extent to which different countries participate in international trade, however, differ greatly.
国际经济学课件
一种双赢博弈
2 假设前提并不正确 分工并非产生于交换,其产生早于交换;交换不是人 类本性的产物,而是社会生产方式和分工发展的结果 3 只说明了国际贸易实践中的一种特殊情况
比较优势理论 (comparative advantage theory)
一、比较优势理论基本假设
1 两个国家两种产品; 2 劳动力是唯一生产要素且可在国内自由流动; 3 生产商品的成本是固定的; 4 商品生产的技术条件是既定的; 5 所有生产要素都得到了充分利用; 6 商品市场和劳动力市场都是完全竞争的; 7 没有运输成本和其他交易成本。
不同国家和地区资源禀赋的占有率
(%)
国家/地区
美国 欧盟 日本 加拿大 墨西哥 中国 印度 东欧
资本
20.8 20.7 10.5 2.0 2.3 8.3 3.0 6.2
熟练工人 非熟练工人
19.4 13.3 8.2 1.7 1.2 21.7 7.1 3.8 2.6 5.3 1.6 0.4 1.4 30.4 15.3 8.4
MRT=Cx/Cy=Px/Py
Cx/Cy
机会成本不变的 生产可能性边界
机会成本递增的 生产可能性边界
机会成本递减的 生产可能性边界
本国的生产可能性边界方程
外国的生产可能性边界方程
X
ax
布
Y
ay
本国
LA
布
X
bx
外国
Y
by
LB
120
120
0
180
小麦
0
60
小麦
固定成本下的生产可能性曲线
小麦是本国的比较优势产品,布是外国的比较优势产品
绝对优势理论 (absolute advantage theory)
International Economic Issues(国际经济学)
Balance of Payments
Accounting record of all financial transactions between one country and “rest of world” Reflects country’s trade in goods, services and financial assets Reflects both private transactions (individuals and businesses) and official transactions (government)
Imports Goods Services Income Payments Unilateral Transfers Current Account Balance
. The Trade Balance Over Time - Selected Countries
Capital Account
Balance of Payments
Current Account Capital Account Financial Account Statistical Discrepancy Sum of credits must equal sum of debits (except for statistical discrepancy)
Current Account
Unilateral Transfers: Includes items (in both directions) such as:
– Government grants abroad (foreign aid) – Private remittances – Private foundation grants abroad
International Economics国际经济学U2
2.3 Other New Classical Theories
T ρ ρ X0
T0 T1
X1
S0
S1
S
At constant world prices, if a country experiences an increase in the supply of one factor, it will produce more of the product whose production is intensive in that factor and less of the other product.
O
L L1 Total Labor Supply of the U.S.
O’
2.1 Specific Factor Model
The existence of specific factors can help explain why some groups resist free trade. In general, owners of the abundant factor of production in a country should be in favor of free trade. However, both capital and labor in the industry with a comparative disadvantage suffer losses and may well resist free trade.
2.1 Specific Factor Model
specific factor
Its
use is specific to either the production of machines or the production of cloth and cannot move between industries. Such as capital in the model.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS lecture.ppt
Dumping
Dumping: dumping is defined as selling a product in a foreign country at a price that is lower than the price charged by the same firm in its home market or at a price below costs of production. In U.S law ,sale at less than fair value is defined as dumping.
Such deference between the actual (lower) selling price and the (higher) fair market value is defined as dumping margin.
Export subsidy
Export subsidy : an export subsidy is a direct or indirect payment from a nation’s government to one or more of its exporters.
美国食糖进口----配额
案例评析: 进口配额指的是对可能进口的商
品实行直接的进口数量限制。这种限 制通常是以向一些个人和公司颁发进 口许可证来得到实现。进口配额总是 抬高进口商品的国内价格的。当进口 被限制时,立即出现的结果就是在初 始价位上,国内的需求超过国内供给 加进口,于是价格不断上升直到市场 达到均衡为止。最终,进口配额抬高 国内价格的幅度会达到同样限制水平 的关税所抬高的幅度一样。
Predatory dumpingodity at below cost or at a lower price abroad in order to drive foreign producers out of business , after which Prices are
国际经济学-第2章 国际贸易经典理论
Introduction
第9页
*Classical trade theory is the product of an evolution of ideas in economic thoughts. In particular, the writings of the mercantilists,and later those of Adam Smith and David Ricardo,have been instrumental in establishing the framework of trade theory.
重商主义是早期的国际贸易理论,它产生于15-17世纪西欧资本主义
生产方式准备时期-资本原始积累时期,它是代表商业资本利益的经济思 想和政策体系。
2.1 Mercantilism
第 13 页
2. Theoretical Concept 理论观点
*The mercantilists advocated government regulation of trade to favorable trade balance.
Introduction 引言
第6页
*This chapter develops models that provide different explanations or reasons why trade takes place between countries.
本章建立了一些模型,为国与国之间进行贸易提供了不同的解释或原 因。
and Comparative Advantage
理解重商主义、绝对优势理论和相对优势理论的观点
InternationalEconomicsII国际经济学
International Economics, 8e (Krugman) II Chapter 12 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments1) A country's gross national product (GNP) isA) the value of all final goods and services produced by its factors of production and sold on the market in a given time period.B) the value of all intermediate goods and services produced by its factors of production and sold on the market in a given time period.C) the value of all final goods produced by its factors of production and sold on the market in a given time period.D) the value of all final goods and services produced by its factors of production and sold on the market.E) the value of all final goods and services produced by its factors of production, excluding land, and sold on the market in a given time period.Answer: A2)The CA is equal toA) Y - (C - I + G).B) Y + (C + I + G).C) Y - (C + I + G).D) Y - (C + I - G).E) None of the above.Answer: A3)For open economies,A) S = I.B) S = I + CA.C) S = I - CA.D) S > I + CA.E) S < I + CA.Answer: B4)A U.S. citizen buys a newly issued share of stock in England, paying for his order with a check, which the British company deposits in its own U.S. bank account in New York. How is this transaction accounted for in the balance of payments?A) financial account, U.S. asset exportB) current account, U.S. service importC) current account, British good exportD) financial account, British asset importE) financial account, U.S. asset importAnswer: A5) The earnings of a Spanish factory with British ownersareA) counted in Spain's GDP.B) are part of Britain's GNP.C) are counted in Britain's GDP.D) are part of Spain's GNP.E) Only A and B.Answer: E6)"The Balance of payments is always balanced." Discuss.Answer: True. Every international transaction automatically enters the balance of payments twice, once as a credit and once as a debit.Current account + financial account + capital account = 07) "The balance of payments accounts seldom balance in practice." Discuss.Answer: True. The main reasons are due to the fact that data collected or received from different sources may differ in coverage, accuracy, and timing. In addition, data on services are not reliable as well as data from the financial account. Moreover, accurate measurements of international interest and dividend receipts areparticularly difficult.8)Fill in the following table:Answer:Chapter 13 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach1)How many British pounds would it cost to buy a pair of American designer jeans costing $45 if the exchange rate is 1.80 dollars per British pound?A) 10 British poundsB) 25 British poundsC) 20 British poundsD) 30 British poundsE) 40 British poundsAnswer: B2) An appreciation of a country's currency,A) decreases the relative price of its exports and lowers the relative price of its imports.B) raises the relative price of its exports and raises the relative price of its imports.C) lowers the relative price of its exports and raises the relative price of its imports.D) raises the relative price of its exports and lowers therelative price of its imports.E) None of the above.Answer: D3) Which major actor is at the center of the foreign exchange market?A) corporationsB) central banksC) commercial banksD) non-bank financial institutionsE) None of the above.Answer: C4) What is the expected dollar rate of return on euro deposits with today's exchange rate at $1.10 per euro, next year's expected exchange rate at $1.166 per euro, the dollar interest rate at 10%, and the euro interest rate at 5%?A) 10%B) 11%C) -1%D) 0%E) None of the above.Answer: B5) What is the expected dollar rate of return on dollar deposits with today's exchange rate at $1.10 per euro, next year's expected exchange rate at $1.165 per euro, the dollar interest rate at 10%, and the euro interest rate at 5%?A) 10%B) 11%C) -1%D) 0%E) None of the above.Answer: A6)If the dollar interest rate is 10 percent, the euro interest rate is 6 percent, and the expected return on dollar depreciation against the euro is 4 percent, thenA) an investor should invest only in dollars.B) an investor should invest only in euros.C) an investor should be indifferent between dollars and euros.D) It is impossible to tell given the information.E) All of the above.Answer: C7)Discuss the effects of a rise in the interest rate paid byeuro deposits on the exchange rate.Answer: There are two effects to consider. If we make the unrealistic assumption that the expected exchange rate will not change, then a rise in the interest rate paid by Euro deposits causes the dollar to depreciate. However, if the expected exchange rate were to rise, then the current exchange rate would also rise. (See figure 13-6 from the text.)8) Calculate the interest rate in the euro zone if interest parity condition holds, for the following 15 cases: Answer:Chapter 14 Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates1)Money includesA) currency.B) checking deposits held by households and firms.C) deposits in the foreign exchange markets.D) Both A and B.E) A, B, and C.Answer: D2)The aggregate money demand depends onA) the interest rate.B) the price level.C) real national income.D) All of the above.E) Only A and C.Answer: D3)Using a figure describing both the U.S. money market and the foreign exchange market, analyze the effects of a temporary increase in the European money supply on the dollar/euro exchange rate.Answer: An increase in the European money supply will reduce the interest rate on the euro and thus will cause the schedule of the expected euro return expresses in dollars to shift down, causing a reduction in the dollar/euro exchange rate, i.e., an appreciation of the U.S. Dollar. The euro depreciates against the dollar. The U.S. money demand and money supply are not going to be affected, and thus the interest rate in the U.S. will remain the same.4) A permanent increase in a country's money supplyA) causes a more than proportional increase in its price level.B) causes a less than proportional increase in its pricelevel.C) causes a proportional increase in its price level.D) leaves its price level constant in long-run equilibrium.E) None of the above.Answer: C5)After a permanent increase in the money supply, A) the exchange rate overshoots in the short run.B)the exchange rate overshoots in the long run.C) the exchange rate smoothly depreciates in the short run.D) the exchange rate smoothly appreciates in the short run.E) None of the above.Answer: A6)"Although the price levels appear to display short-run stickiness in many countries, a change in the money supply creates immediate demand and cost pressures that eventually lead to future increase in the price level." Discuss.Answer: The statement is true. The pressures come from three main sources: excess demand for output and labor; inflationary expectations; and, raw material prices.7)The long run effects of money supply change:A) ambiguous effect on the long-run values of the interest rate or real output, a proportional change in the price level's long-run value in the opposite direction.B)proportional effect on the long-run values of the interest rate or real output, a proportional change in the price level's long-run value in the same direction.C) no effect on the long-run values of the interest rate or real output, a proportional change in the price level's long-run value in the same direction.D) no effect on the long-run values of the interest rate or real output, no change in the price level's long-run value.E) ambiguous effect on the long-run values of the interest rate or real output, A disproportional change in the price level's long-run value in the same direction.Answer: CChapter 15 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run1)Under Purchasing Power Parity,A) E$/E = PUS/PE.B) E$/E = PE/PES.C) E$/E = PUS + PE.D) E$/E = PUS - PE.E) None of the above.Answer: A2)Assuming relative PPP, fill in the table below: Answer:3) Under PPP (and by the Fisher Effect), all else equal,A) a rise in a country's expected inflation rate will eventually cause a more-than proportional rise in the interest rate that deposits of its currency offer in order to accommodate for the higher inflation.B) a fall in a country's expected inflation rate will eventually cause an equal rise in the interest rate that deposits of its currency offer.C) a rise in a country's expected inflation rate will eventually cause an equal rise in the interest rate that deposits of its currency offer.D) a rise in a country's expected inflation rate will eventually cause a less than proportional rise in the interest rate that deposits of its currency offer to accommodate the rise in expected inflation.E) None of the above.Answer: C4)Describe the chain of events leading to exchange rate determination for the following cases:(a) An Increase in U.S. money supply(d) Increase in growth rate of U.S. money supply(c) Increase in world relative demand for U.S. products(d) Increase in relative U.S. output supplyAnswer: Chain of events leading to exchange rate determination:E= ∈/$q× (P us/P E)∈/$Increase in U.S. money supply: Pus rises in proportion to the money supply; q remains the same. All dollar prices will rise (including dollar price of euro).Increase in growth rate of U.S. money supply: Inflation rate, dollar interest rate, Pus, E, rises in proportion to Pus.Increase in world relative demand for U.S. products: E falls, and q does as well.Increase in relative U.S. output supply: Dollar depreciates, lowers relative price ofU.S. output, rise in q, effect on E is not clear since q and Pus work in opposite directions.5)Which of the following statements is the mostaccurate?A) Relative PPP is not a reasonable approximation to the data.B) Relative PPP is sometimes a reasonable approximation to the data but often performs poorly.C) Relative PPP is sometimes a reasonable approximation to the data.D) PPP is sometimes a reasonable approximation to the data.E) PPP is sometimes a reasonable approximation to the data but usually performs poorly.Answer: B6) Interest rate differences between countries depend onA) differences in expected inflation, but not on expected changes in the real exchange rate.B) differences in expected changes in the real exchange rate, but not on expected inflation.C) neither differences in expected inflation, nor on expected changes in the real exchange rate.D) differences in expected inflation and nothing else.E) differences in expected inflation, and on expected changes in the real exchange rate.Answer: E8) What is the real exchange rate between the dollar and the euro equal to?Answer:Let,∙Real dollar/euro exchange rate =q∈/$∙Nominal exchange rate =E∈/$∙Price of an unchanging basket in US = Pus∙Price of an unchanging basket in Europe = PEThen,q= (∈/$E× P E)/Pus∈/$A rise in the real dollar/euro exchange rate is called a real depreciation of the dollar against the euro, a fall in purchasing power of the dollar.A fall in the real dollar/euro exchange rate is called a real appreciation of the dollar against the euro, a rise in purchasing power of the dollar.Chapter 16 Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run1)A country's domestic currency's real exchange rate, q, is best described byA) the price of similar goods in the same market.B) the price of the domestic basket in terms of the foreignone.C) the price of a domestic basket.D) the price of the foreign basket in terms of the domestic basket.E) the price of different goods baskets in the same market.Answer: D2)Fill in the following table:Answer:3) How does a rise in real income affect aggregate demand?A) Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies Im ↑implies CA ↓implies AD ↓, but Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies C ↑implies AD ↑by moreB) Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies Im ↓implies CA ↓implies AD ↓, but Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies C ↑implies AD ↑by moreC) Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies Im ↑implies CA ↑implies AD ↑, and Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies C ↑implies AD ↑D) Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies Im ↑implies CA ↓implies AD ↓, but Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies C ↑implies AD ↑by lessE) Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies Im ↓implies CA ↓implies AD ↓, but Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies C ↑implies AD ↑by lessAnswer: A4)The aggregate demand for home input can be written as a function of:I. Real exchange rate.II. Government spending.III. D isposable income.A) I onlyB) III onlyC) I and IIID) II and IIIE) I, II, and IIIAnswer: E5) In the short-run, any rise in the real exchange rate, EP /P, will causeA) an upward shift in the aggregate demand function and a reduction in outputB) an upward shift in the aggregate demand function and an expansion of outputC) a downward shift in the aggregate demand function and an expansion of outputD) an downward shift in the aggregate demand function and a reduction in outputE) an upward shift in the aggregate demand function but leaves output intactAnswer: B6) In the short-run, any fall in EP/P, regardless of its causes, will causeA) an upward shift in the aggregate demand function and an expansion of outputB) an upward shift in the aggregate demand function and a reduction in outputC) a downward shift in the aggregate demand function and an expansion of outputD) an downward shift in the aggregate demand function and a reduction in outputE) an upward shift in the aggregate demand function but leaves output intactAnswer: D7) In the short-run, a temporary increase in the money supplyA) shifts the AA curve to the right, increases output and depreciates the currency.B) shifts the AA curve to the left, increases output and depreciates the currency.C) shifts the AA curve to the left, decreases output and depreciates the currency.D) shifts the AA curve to the left, increases output and appreciates the currency.E) shifts the AA curve to the right, increases output and appreciates the currency.Answer: A8)If the economy starts in long-run equilibrium, a permanent fiscal expansion will causeA) an increase in exchange rate, E.B) a decrease in exchange rate, E.C) an increase in output, Y.D) a decrease in output, Y.E) shifting of the AA curve up and to the right. Answer: BChapter 17 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention1) A central bank's international reserves includeA) any gold that it owns.B) any silver that it owns.C) any gold that it owns and foreign and domestic assets.D) any silver that it owns and foreign and domestic assets.E) only foreign and domestic assets.Answer: C2)A balance sheet for the central bank of Pecunia is shown below:Central Bank Balance SheetAssets LiabilitiesForeign assets $1,000 Deposits held by private banks $500Domestic assets $1,500 Currency in circulation $2,000Please write the new balance sheet if the bank sells $100 worth of foreign bonds for domestic currency. Answer:Central Bank Balance SheetAssets LiabilitiesForeign assets $900 Deposits held by private banks $500Domestic assets $1,500 Currency in circulation $1,9003)If the central bank does not purchase foreign assets when output increases but instead holds the money stock constant, can it still keep the exchange rate fixed at Eo? Please explain with the aid of a figure.Answer:No, the rise in output leads to an excess demand for money. If the central bank does not increase supply to meet this demand, the domestic interest rate would rise above the foreign rate, R*. This higher rate of return (and given expectations in the foreign exchange market) would cause the exchange rate to fall below Eo.4)Under fixed exchange rate, in general,A) the domestic and foreign interest rates are equal, R = R .B) R = R+ (Ee - E)/E.C) There is no relation between the fixed exchange rate and the interest rates both foreign and domestic.D) E is equal to one.E) None of the above.Answer: A5) A balance of payments crisis is best described asA) a sharp change in interest rates sparked by a change in expectations about the level of imports.B) a sharp change in foreign reserves sparked by a change in expectations about the future exchange rate.C) a sharp change in interest rates sparked by a change in expectations about the level of exports.D) a sharp change in foreign reserves sparked by a change in expectations about the level of imports.E) None of the above.Answer: B6) Use a figure to illustrate the ineffectiveness of monetary policy to spur on an economy under a fixed exchange rate.Answer:The initial equilibrium rests at point 1. If the central bank wishes to use monetary policy to increase output from Y1 to Y2, then they might buy domestic assets and shift the AA curve outward. However, the central bank must maintain a fixed exchange rate E0, so would have to sell foreign assets for domestic currency, returning the economy to point 1.7)Use a figure to explain the potential effectiveness of fiscal policy to spur on the economy under a fixed exchange rate.Answer:With an aim toward increasing output, the government could use fiscal policy to shift the DD curve outward. The central bank will have to take steps to maintain a fixed exchange rate E0, among the options is buying foreign assets with money, to shift the AA schedule outward until the equilibrium at point 3 is reached。
Int'l Economics
Slide 1-4
1.2 Int‘l Trade and the Nation‘s Standard of Living
• With the global integration, the economic relationship
among nations is more interdependent.
– Currency fluctuations – National default
Slide 1-13
1.4 Organization of the Text
• int‘l economics deals with int‘l trade theory, int‘l
trade policy (microeconomic aspects of int‘l economics), foreign exchange markets and the balance of payments, and open economy macroeconomics (macroeconomic aspects of int‘l
– Climate and resources determine the trade pattern of several goods. – In manufacturing and services the pattern of trade is more subtle. – There are two types of trade:
Slide 1-14
– Foreign exchange markets are the framework for the exchange of a nation‘s currency for another – The balance of payments measures a nation‘s total receipts from and the total payments to the rest of the world
International Economics II国际经济学
International Economics, 8e (Krugman) IIChapter 12 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments1) A country's gross national product (GNP) isA) the value of all final goods and services produced by its factors of production and sold on the market in a given time period.B) the value of all intermediate goods and services produced by its factors of production and sold on the market in a given time period.C) the value of all final goods produced by its factors of production and sold on the market in a given time period.D) the value of all final goods and services produced by its factors of production and sold on the market.E) the value of all final goods and services produced by its factors of production, excluding land, and sold on the market in a given time period.Answer: A2)The CA is equal toA) Y - (C - I + G).B) Y + (C + I + G).C) Y - (C + I + G).D) Y - (C + I - G).E) None of the above.Answer: A3)For open economies,A) S = I.B) S = I + CA.C) S = I - CA.D) S > I + CA.E) S < I + CA.Answer: B4)A U.S. citizen buys a newly issued share of stock in England, paying for his order with a check, which the British company deposits in its own U.S. bank account in New York. How is this transaction accounted for in the balance of payments?A) financial account, U.S. asset exportB) current account, U.S. service importC) current account, British good exportD) financial account, British asset importE) financial account, U.S. asset importAnswer: A5) The earnings of a Spanish factory with British owners areA) counted in Spain's GDP.B) are part of Britain's GNP.C) are counted in Britain's GDP.D) are part of Spain's GNP.E) Only A and B.Answer: E6)"The Balance of payments is always balanced." Discuss.Answer: True. Every international transaction automatically enters the balance of payments twice, once as a credit and once as a debit.Current account + financial account + capital account = 07) "The balance of payments accounts seldom balance in practice." Discuss. Answer: True. The main reasons are due to the fact that data collected or received from different sources may differ in coverage, accuracy, and timing. In addition, data on services are not reliable as well as data from the financial account. Moreover, accurate measurements of international interest and dividend receipts are particularly difficult.8)Fill in the following table:Answer:Chapter 13 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach1)How many British pounds would it cost to buy a pair of American designer jeans costing $45 if the exchange rate is 1.80 dollars per British pound?A) 10 British poundsB) 25 British poundsC) 20 British poundsD) 30 British poundsE) 40 British poundsAnswer: B2) An appreciation of a country's currency,A) decreases the relative price of its exports and lowers the relative price of its imports.B) raises the relative price of its exports and raises the relative price of its imports.C) lowers the relative price of its exports and raises the relative price of its imports.D) raises the relative price of its exports and lowers the relative price of its imports.E) None of the above.Answer: D3) Which major actor is at the center of the foreign exchange market?A) corporationsB) central banksC) commercial banksD) non-bank financial institutionsE) None of the above.Answer: C4) What is the expected dollar rate of return on euro deposits with today's exchange rate at $1.10 per euro, next year's expected exchange rate at $1.166 per euro, the dollar interest rate at 10%, and the euro interest rate at 5%?A) 10%B) 11%C) -1%D) 0%E) None of the above.Answer: B5) What is the expected dollar rate of return on dollar deposits with today's exchange rate at $1.10 per euro, next year's expected exchange rate at $1.165 per euro, the dollar interest rate at 10%, and the euro interest rate at 5%?A) 10%B) 11%C) -1%D) 0%E) None of the above.Answer: A6)If the dollar interest rate is 10 percent, the euro interest rate is 6 percent, and the expected return on dollar depreciation against the euro is 4 percent, thenA) an investor should invest only in dollars.B) an investor should invest only in euros.C) an investor should be indifferent between dollars and euros.D) It is impossible to tell given the information.E) All of the above.Answer: C7)Discuss the effects of a rise in the interest rate paid by euro deposits on the exchange rate.Answer: There are two effects to consider. If we make the unrealistic assumption that the expected exchange rate will not change, then a rise in the interest rate paid by Euro deposits causes the dollar to depreciate. However, if the expected exchange rate were to rise, then the current exchange rate would also rise. (See figure 13-6 from the text.)8) Calculate the interest rate in the euro zone if interest parity condition holds, for the following 15 cases:Answer:Chapter 14 Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates 1)Money includesA) currency.B) checking deposits held by households and firms.C) deposits in the foreign exchange markets.D) Both A and B.E) A, B, and C.Answer: D2)The aggregate money demand depends onA) the interest rate.B) the price level.C) real national income.D) All of the above.E) Only A and C.Answer: D3)Using a figure describing both the U.S. money market and the foreign exchange market, analyze the effects of a temporary increase in the European money supply on the dollar/euro exchange rate.Answer: An increase in the European money supply will reduce the interest rate on the euro and thus will cause the schedule of the expected euro return expresses in dollars to shift down, causing a reduction in the dollar/euro exchange rate, i.e., an appreciation of the U.S. Dollar. The euro depreciates against the dollar. The U.S. money demand and money supply are not going to be affected, and thus the interest rate in the U.S. will remain the same.4) A permanent increase in a country's money supplyA) causes a more than proportional increase in its price level.B) causes a less than proportional increase in its price level.C) causes a proportional increase in its price level.D) leaves its price level constant in long-run equilibrium.E) None of the above.Answer: C5)After a permanent increase in the money supply,A) the exchange rate overshoots in the short run.B)the exchange rate overshoots in the long run.C) the exchange rate smoothly depreciates in the short run.D) the exchange rate smoothly appreciates in the short run.E) None of the above.Answer: A6)"Although the price levels appear to display short-run stickiness in many countries, a change in the money supply creates immediate demand and cost pressures that eventually lead to future increase in the price level." Discuss.Answer: The statement is true. The pressures come from three main sources: excess demand for output and labor; inflationary expectations; and, raw material prices.7)The long run effects of money supply change:A) ambiguous effect on the long-run values of the interest rate or real output, a proportional change in the price level's long-run value in the opposite direction.B)proportional effect on the long-run values of the interest rate or real output, a proportional change in the price level's long-run value in the same direction.C) no effect on the long-run values of the interest rate or real output, a proportional change in the price level's long-run value in the same direction.D) no effect on the long-run values of the interest rate or real output, no change in the price level's long-run value.E) ambiguous effect on the long-run values of the interest rate or real output, A disproportional change in the price level's long-run value in the same direction. Answer: CChapter 15 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run1)Under Purchasing Power Parity,A) E$/E = PUS/PE.B) E$/E = PE/PES.C) E$/E = PUS + PE.D) E$/E = PUS - PE.E) None of the above.Answer: A2)Assuming relative PPP, fill in the table below:Answer:3) Under PPP (and by the Fisher Effect), all else equal,A) a rise in a country's expected inflation rate will eventually cause a more-than proportional rise in the interest rate that deposits of its currency offer in order to accommodate for the higher inflation.B) a fall in a country's expected inflation rate will eventually cause an equal rise in the interest rate that deposits of its currency offer.C) a rise in a country's expected inflation rate will eventually cause an equal rise in the interest rate that deposits of its currency offer.D) a rise in a country's expected inflation rate will eventually cause a less than proportional rise in the interest rate that deposits of its currency offer to accommodate the rise in expected inflation.E) None of the above.Answer: C4)Describe the chain of events leading to exchange rate determination for the following cases:(a) An Increase in U.S. money supply(d) Increase in growth rate of U.S. money supply(c) Increase in world relative demand for U.S. products(d) Increase in relative U.S. output supplyAnswer: Chain of events leading to exchange rate determination:∈/$E = ∈/$q × (P us /P E )Increase in U.S. money supply: Pus rises in proportion to the money supply; qremains the same. All dollar prices will rise (including dollar price of euro).Increase in growth rate of U.S. money supply: Inflation rate, dollar interest rate, Pus, E, rises in proportion to Pus.Increase in world relative demand for U.S. products: E falls, and q does as well. Increase in relative U.S. output supply: Dollar depreciates, lowers relative price of U.S. output, rise in q, effect on E is not clear since q and Pus work in opposite directions.5)Which of the following statements is the most accurate? A) Relative PPP is not a reasonable approximation to the data.B) Relative PPP is sometimes a reasonable approximation to the data but often performs poorly.C) Relative PPP is sometimes a reasonable approximation to the data. D) PPP is sometimes a reasonable approximation to the data.E) PPP is sometimes a reasonable approximation to the data but usually performs poorly.Answer: B6) Interest rate differences between countries depend onA) differences in expected inflation, but not on expected changes in the real exchange rate.B) differences in expected changes in the real exchange rate, but not on expected inflation.C) neither differences in expected inflation, nor on expected changes in the real exchange rate.D) differences in expected inflation and nothing else.E) differences in expected inflation, and on expected changes in the real exchange rate.Answer: E8) What is the real exchange rate between the dollar and the euro equal to? Answer: Let,∙ Real dollar/euro exchange rate = ∈/$q ∙Nominal exchange rate = ∈/$E∙ Price of an unchanging basket in US = Pus ∙ Price of an unchanging basket in Europe = PEThen,∈/$q= (∈/$E× P E)/PusA rise in the real dollar/euro exchange rate is called a real depreciation of the dollar against the euro, a fall in purchasing power of the dollar.A fall in the real dollar/euro exchange rate is called a real appreciation of the dollar against the euro, a rise in purchasing power of the dollar.Chapter 16 Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run1)A country's domestic currency's real exchange rate, q, is best described byA) the price of similar goods in the same market.B) the price of the domestic basket in terms of the foreign one.C) the price of a domestic basket.D) the price of the foreign basket in terms of the domestic basket.E) the price of different goods baskets in the same market.Answer: D2)Fill in the following table:Answer:3) How does a rise in real income affect aggregate demand?A) Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies Im ↑implies CA ↓implies AD ↓, but Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies C ↑implies AD ↑by moreB) Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies Im ↓implies CA ↓implies AD ↓, but Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies C ↑implies AD ↑by moreC) Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies Im ↑implies CA ↑implies AD ↑, and Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies C ↑implies AD ↑D) Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies Im ↑implies CA ↓implies AD ↓, but Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies C ↑implies AD ↑by lessE) Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies Im ↓implies CA ↓implies AD ↓, but Y ↑implies Yd ↑implies C ↑implies AD ↑by lessAnswer: A4)The aggregate demand for home input can be written as a function of:I. Real exchange rate.II. Government spending.III. Disposable income.A) I onlyB) III onlyC) I and IIID) II and IIIE) I, II, and IIIAnswer: E5) In the short-run, any rise in the real exchange rate, EP/P, will causeA) an upward shift in the aggregate demand function and a reduction in outputB) an upward shift in the aggregate demand function and an expansion of outputC) a downward shift in the aggregate demand function and an expansion of outputD) an downward shift in the aggregate demand function and a reduction in outputE) an upward shift in the aggregate demand function but leaves output intact Answer: B6) In the short-run, any fall in EP/P, regardless of its causes, will causeA) an upward shift in the aggregate demand function and an expansion of outputB) an upward shift in the aggregate demand function and a reduction in outputC) a downward shift in the aggregate demand function and an expansion of outputD) an downward shift in the aggregate demand function and a reduction in outputE) an upward shift in the aggregate demand function but leaves output intact Answer: D7) In the short-run, a temporary increase in the money supplyA) shifts the AA curve to the right, increases output and depreciates the currency.B) shifts the AA curve to the left, increases output and depreciates the currency.C) shifts the AA curve to the left, decreases output and depreciates the currency.D) shifts the AA curve to the left, increases output and appreciates the currency.E) shifts the AA curve to the right, increases output and appreciates the currency. Answer: A8)If the economy starts in long-run equilibrium, a permanent fiscal expansion will causeA) an increase in exchange rate, E.B) a decrease in exchange rate, E.C) an increase in output, Y.D) a decrease in output, Y.E) shifting of the AA curve up and to the right.Answer: BChapter 17 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention1) A central bank's international reserves includeA) any gold that it owns.B) any silver that it owns.C) any gold that it owns and foreign and domestic assets.D) any silver that it owns and foreign and domestic assets.E) only foreign and domestic assets.Answer: C2)A balance sheet for the central bank of Pecunia is shown below:Central Bank Balance SheetAssets LiabilitiesForeign assets $1,000 Deposits held by private banks $500Domestic assets $1,500 Currency in circulation $2,000Please write the new balance sheet if the bank sells $100 worth of foreign bonds for domestic currency.Answer:Central Bank Balance SheetAssets LiabilitiesForeign assets $900 Deposits held by private banks $500Domestic assets $1,500 Currency in circulation $1,9003)If the central bank does not purchase foreign assets when output increases but instead holds the money stock constant, can it still keep the exchange rate fixed at Eo? Please explain with the aid of a figure.Answer:No, the rise in output leads to an excess demand for money. If the central bank does not increase supply to meet this demand, the domestic interest rate would rise above the foreign rate, R*. This higher rate of return (and given expectations in the foreign exchange market) would cause the exchange rate to fall below Eo.4)Under fixed exchange rate, in general,A) the domestic and foreign interest rates are equal, R = R.B) R = R+ (Ee - E)/E.C) There is no relation between the fixed exchange rate and the interest rates both foreign and domestic.D) E is equal to one.E) None of the above.Answer: A5) A balance of payments crisis is best described asA) a sharp change in interest rates sparked by a change in expectations about the level of imports.B) a sharp change in foreign reserves sparked by a change in expectations about the future exchange rate.C) a sharp change in interest rates sparked by a change in expectations about the level of exports.D) a sharp change in foreign reserves sparked by a change in expectations about the level of imports.E) None of the above.Answer: B6) Use a figure to illustrate the ineffectiveness of monetary policy to spur on an economy under a fixed exchange rate.Answer:The initial equilibrium rests at point 1. If the central bank wishes to use monetary policy to increase output from Y1 to Y2, then they might buy domestic assets and shift the AA curve outward. However, the central bank must maintain a fixed exchange rate E0, so would have to sell foreign assets for domestic currency, returning the economy to point 1.7)Use a figure to explain the potential effectiveness of fiscal policy to spur on the economy under a fixed exchange rate.Answer:With an aim toward increasing output, the government could use fiscal policy to shift the DD curve outward. The central bank will have to take steps to maintain a fixed exchange rate E0, among the options is buying foreign assets with money, to shift the AA schedule outward until the equilibrium at point 3 is reached。
International economics 2.ppt-ch.17
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本币贬值的影响:货币分析法
对货币分析法的评论 (1)
• 按照货币分析法的观点,不仅本币贬值不能改善一国的国 际收支,而且各种复杂的宏观经济政策也是无效的,因而 必须抛弃。按照主张货币分析法的学者的看法,让经济系 统的自动调节机制发挥作用,国际收支会自动恢复均衡。 • 货币分析法的这些观点。引起了经济学界对这种分析方法 的大量批评。概括起来,主要有两种批评意见。 • 一是对充分就业均衡假设的批评。凯恩斯主义经济学认为, 充分就业均衡在现实中是极少见的特例,非充分就业均衡 才是现实中的通常情况,而且,从长期趋势来看,自动调 节机制是否倾向于使经济系统达到充分就业均衡,也是一 个值得争论的问题。因此,假定经济系统处于充分就业均 衡状态,是缺乏依据的。如果充分就业均衡这一假设不成 立,货币分析法的结论也就有问题了。如果我们接受凯恩 斯主义关于国民收入处于非充分就业均衡水平的假设,则 在低于充分就业均衡水平时,国民收入就是可变的,这样 不同的消费支出和投资支出函数就会存在,货币需求不再 是稳定的,货币分析法的结论当然也就不真实了。
国际收支 顺差(逆差)
黄金流入 (流出)
货币供应量 增加(减少)
物价上升 (下降)
顺差(逆差)消除 黄金流动中止
物价—铸币—流动机制
B
M M M P
Me
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(a )
(b)
国际经济学第二章
2.2b Different Views on National Wealth
Mercantilists measured the wealth by the stock of precious metals. But today we measure a nation’s wealth by the total stock of human resources, man-made and natural resources available for producing goods and services. The greater this stock of useful resources, the greater is the flow of goods and services to satisfy human wants and the higher the standard of living in the nation.
Can we use the theory to carry out foreign trade?
It can not even explain the trade between advanced countries because their productivities are almost the same.
U.S. has greater efficiency in production of wheat (absolute advantage) and it should specialize in the production of wheat and exchange for cloth , while U.K. has greater efficiency in production of cloth (absolute advantage) and it should specialize in the production of cloth and exchange for wheat (absolute disadvantage). What happens if U.S. exchanges 6W for 6C with U.K.?
国际经济学2 : 国际金融.13(ppt 24)
• 两者从不同的角度,反映同一国家的国际经济交易活动。 国际借贷作为存量,理论上可看成是一国历年国际收支的 汇总,但事实上并非如此。因为当外汇汇率变动时,国际 借贷平衡表中的各项资产和负债会发生相应的变动,而国 际收支平衡表中并不反映汇率的变动。
国际收支平衡表
(Balance of Payments)
• 根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的解释,国际收支或国际收支平衡表 (英文同为Balance of Payments),是对一国在一定时期内(通常为1 年、1季或1月)本国居民与外国居民之间发生的全部经济交易的系统 的货币记录(通常以本币作为记帐货币)。
International economics 2: international finance
Ch.13 Balance of payments
Ch.13 国际收支
• 国际金融研究的主要内容是开放经济的宏观经济学。而了 解开放经济条件下一国产出水平和国际经济交易的各种变 量,则是研究开放经济宏观经济学的第一步。经济学家们 用来描述一国开放经济条件下的产出水平和国际经济交易 的变量,主要包括两个相互联系的工具,一是国民收入核 算恒等式,描述开放经济中各经济变量之间的关系;二是 国际收支核算,用以系统地记载一国在一定时期与国外进 行的各项经济交易,也就是通常所说的国际收支平衡表 (Balance of Payments)。
• 一般来说,一国的国际收支通常是不平衡的,平衡只是偶然发生的情 况。
• 当一国国际收支发生差额时,最终是通过一国官方储备的变动来平衡 的。国际收支逆差将减少一国的官方储备,而国际收支顺差则增加一 国的官方储备。
International Economics
International trade
International trade theory International trade policy
International Finance Foreign exchange markets Balance of payments
Open economy macroeconomics
1.2D Purpose to Study International Economics
To predict and explain the economic events in the world. To examine the basis for and gains from international trade.
• Perfect competition
• No transportation costs Answer: It is easier to study international economics. What would happen if we relax these assumptions?
To examine the reasons for and the effects of trade restrictions.
To understand what is gong in the world and their effects on the world economy.
To have a better job!!! Why ?
Dominick Salvatore: International Economics 7th Ed. 2001 Prentice-Hall, Inc. & Tsinghua University Press Paul R. Krugman & Maurice Obstfeld International Economics Theory and Policy 5th Ed. 2000 Addison Wesley Longman & Tsinghua Uni. Press Dennis R. Appleyard & Alfred J. Field. Jr.. International Economics 4th ed. 1998 The McGraw-Hill, Inc. & China Machine Press Robert J. Carbaugh: International Economics 6th ed. 1998 The McGraw-Hill, Inc. & Dongbei Uni. of Finance and Economics Press
国际经济学英文版(internationaleconomics)PPT课件
▪ Growth of emerging markets ▪ international capital movements regain importance
6
Economic interdependence
Exports of goods and services as percent of Gross Domestic Product, 2001
Ch 16 Exchange-Rate Systems
Ch 17 Macroeconomic Policy in an Open Economy
Ch18 International Banking: Reserves, Debt and Risk
International Economics
By Robert J. Carbaugh 9th Edition
8
Economic interdependence
Interdependence: Impact
Overall standard of living is higher
▪ Access to raw materials & energy not availo goods & components made less expensively elsewhere
International Economics
By Robert J. Carbaugh 9th Edition
Ch 1 The International Economy Ch 2 Foundations of Modern
Trade Theory
Ch 3 International Equilibrium
International economics 2.ppt-ch.16
国民收入(或国民产品),用A表示国内消费和投 资总需求(或国内总吸收,Domestic Absorption),用B表示国际收 支(假定国际收支等于商品和服务贸易的收支),则国民收入的基本 会计等式为(假定不存在政府部门): • Y=A+B • 或B=Y—A • 对上式求差分,得: • △B=△Y—△A • 上式表明,本币贬值(汇率上升)要起到改善国际收支的作用,必须 要求在国民收入不变的条件下,本币贬值能减少国内吸收;或者在国 内吸收不变的条件下,本币贬值能增加国民收入;或者更好的情况是, 本币贬值同时造成国民收入的增加和国内吸收的减少;或者当本币贬 值引起国民收入和国内吸收同时增加时,国民收入的增加超过国内吸 收的增加,而当本币贬值引起国民收入和国内吸收同时减少时,国民 收入的减少小于国内吸收的减少。 • 为了给上述会计衡等式一种因果关系的解释,我们必须解决如下三个 问题:①本币贬值(汇率上升)如何影响一国国民收入;②国民收入 的变化如何影响国内吸收;③本币贬值(汇率上升)如何直接影响给 定国民收入水平下的国内吸收。
International economics 2: international finance-ch.16
国际收支调节中汇率与收入的交互作用: 吸收分析法
国际收支调节的吸收分析法 (1)
• 前面两章,我们分别考察了汇率变化和收入变化在国际收支调节中的作用。 我们知道,汇率变化对国际收支的影响是以弹性分析为基础的。如果我们 把弹性定义为局部均衡弹性,则我们的分析就是不完善的,因为这种分析 忽略了汇率变化对其他变量的直接和间接影响,从而也就忽略了这些因素 变化对国际收支和汇率变化的影响。相反,如果我们将弹性解释为总弹性, 则会产生无谓的重复,因为总弹性只能在事后决定,从而总弹性也就不能 从可操作的意义上解决国际收支调节问题。例如,如果汇率变化引起进出 口发生变化,则这种进出口的变化又会引起国民收入和其他变量发生变化, 这些变化反过来又会影响到进出口发生变化,如此等等。如果我们假定这 一过程是收敛的,我们就可以确定进出口的总变化,从而可以决定进出口 的总弹性。但非常清楚的是,“这种表述把汇率变动对国际收支的调节作 用取决于弹性,变成了汇率变动对国际收支的调节作用取决于经济系统的 运行”。正是这种认识,成为亚历山大(S.S.Alexander)提出国际收支 调节的吸收分析法(Absorption Approach),以取代传统的弹性分析法 的出发点。 • 此外,自动收入调节机制假定国民收入变动时,价格不变,这也是有问题 的。事实上,国民收入变化时,价格不可避免地会随之发生变化。这样, 现实中的国际收支调节,是由价格变化和收入变化共同作用的结果。因此, 较完整的国际收支调节分析,应该把价格和收入同时变化的作用考虑在内, 这也就是国际收支调节的吸收分析方法的特点。
International economics .pptch.ppt
货币当局对钉住汇率的干预(3)
• 值得指出的是,我们这里所讨论的超额外汇供给和超额外 汇需求都是流量的概念,因此,货币当局为保持本币的人 为低估或人为高估,就必须持续不断地吸收外汇的过量供 给,或持续不断地提供外汇,以满足对外汇的超额需求。 这样做的一个显著问题是,持续不断地吸收过量的外汇供 给,并向国内市场持续不断地投放本币,在本币供应超过 实际需求时,就会引起国内通货膨胀。解决这一问题的办 法之一就是用过量的外汇储备从国外进口商品,供应国内 市场,即让D(r)曲线向左移动。更为严重的是,在 r2<re的情况下,货币当局持续不断地减少国际储备,将 导致该国国际储备的枯竭。一旦发生这种情况,本币就会 严重贬值,造成严重的货币危机和金融危机,从而严重破 坏该国的经济发展。
• 弹性乐观主义者则认为,现实的弹性足够能满足临界弹性 条件的要求,因此汇率上升(本币贬值)必定能起到改善 一国国际收支的作用。
• 大量的经验研究并不能使这个争论达成一致的观点。这并 不奇怪,因为在局部均衡的框架下估计进出口的汇率弹性 是难以得出准确结果的,要作出准确的弹性估计,必须在 整体经济范围内建立联立的计量经济模型,在一般均衡框 架下进行估计。
货币贬值的时滞效应及
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马歇尔—勒纳条件 (2)
定义出口的汇率弹性 汇率弹性和进口的汇率弹性 汇率弹性
X / X M / M ηx = ; ηm = r/r r / r
定义国际收支B等于贸易收支
B = PX X rPm M
马歇尔—勒纳条件(Marshall—Lerner Condition)
η X + ηm > 1
货币贬值的时滞效应及 弹性分析法的缺陷 (4)
弹性分析法的缺陷 弹性分析方法(因汇率变化调节国际收支的效果取决于进出口商品的汇率弹性, 因此而得名)假定本币贬值只改变贸易双方的相对价格,而不改变其国内价格, 这种假定显然并不合理。实际情况往往是,本币贬值必然导致国内价格上涨,从 而促使国内生产成本提高,实际汇率与出口竞争力下降。这其中有诸多原因,而 最主要的有两方面的因素。 首先,随着本币的贬值,进口原料、中间产品和最终产品的国内价格(本币价格) 上涨,使得依赖进口原料和中间产品的国内生产成本上升,而进口的最终产品的 国内价格上涨,则造成工资上升的压力,从而提高国内生产的工资成本。 其次,本币贬值促进出口增加,促使生产要素向出口部门转移,从而减少非贸易 部门可利用的资源,随之导致非贸易商品供给量的下降,价格上涨,进而推动社 会一般物价水平上升,造成通货膨胀。 因此,本币贬值后,要想保持国内价格不变,是非常困难的。通常情况下,国内 价格不仅会很快随本币贬值而发生变化,而且很可能造成通货膨胀。这一点,我 们可以从现实中各国汇率贬值政策实施之后的实际效果的观察中,得到验证。 如果某国采取货币贬值,但随之而来的是上面所提到的国内价格上升,甚至出现 较为严重的通货膨胀,那么,通过货币贬值所带来的名义货币的贬值,就会被国 内价格上涨而导致的实际汇率下降所抵消。最终的结果是,整个调整只导致国内 价格的上涨,而国际收支得不到预期的改善。正由于这个原因,所以,人们对国 际收支调节的弹性论一直还存在怀疑
货币贬值的时滞效应及 弹性分析法的缺陷 (2)
货币贬值的J曲线效应
X M
O
t
货币贬值的时滞效应及 弹性分析法的缺陷 (3)
J曲线效应的成因可以这样来解释:由于本币贬值(汇率上升)对贸易 量的调整存在如下几个方面的时滞: ①货币贬值后,本国出口商品的新价格的信息还不能立即为需求方所 了解,即存在认识上的时滞; ②本币贬值、汇率上升后,供求双方都需要一定的时间来判断价格变 化的重要性,即存在决策上的时滞; ③供给方国内对商品和劳务的供应量调整需要一定的时间,因而不能 马上增加生产,即存在生产上的时滞; ④汇率变动后,供求双方都有一个按先进先出法处理存货的问题,即 存在替代时滞; ⑤出口国将商品运往进口国也需要一定的时间,即存在交货时滞。 这些时滞的存在,使得在本币贬值的初期(大约6个月左右),在经常 项目收支改善之前,先会有一个恶化的过程,这就形成了J曲线效应。
D(r ) ES 外汇FE
O
(a )稳定
外汇FE
O
(b)稳定
O
(c)不稳定
外汇FE
马歇尔——勒纳条件(临界弹性条件)也是汇率市场稳定的条件。
货币当局对钉住汇率的干预(1)
在自由浮动汇率制情况下,如果进出口商品 的外汇弹性满足马歇尔——勒纳条件,则汇 率的自由浮动会自动调节一国的国际收支, 使其达到平衡。也就是说,国际收支顺差 (存在对外汇的超额供给)会导致汇率的自 动下降(本贬自动升值,Appreciation), 从而消除国际收支顺差;国际收支逆差(存 在对外汇的超额需求)会导致汇率自动上升 (本币自动贬值,Depreciation),从而消 除国际收支逆差。
货币当局对钉住汇率的干预(2)
值得指出的是,我们这里所讨论的超额外汇供给和超额外 汇需求都是流量的概念,因此,货币当局为保持本币的人 为低估或人为高估,就必须持续不断地吸收外汇的过量供 给,或持续不断地提供外汇,以满足对外汇的超额需求。 这样做的一个显著问题是,持续不断地吸收过量的外汇供 给,并向国内市场持续不断地投放本币,在本币供应超过 实际需求时,就会引起国内通货膨胀。解决这一问题的办 法之一就是用过量的外汇储备从国外进口商品,供应国内 市场,即让D(r)曲线向左移动。更为严重的是,在r2<re 的情况下,货币当局持续不断地减少国际储备,将导致该 国国际储备的枯竭。一旦发生这种情况,本币就会严重贬 值,造成严重的货币危机和金融危机,从而严重破坏该国 的经济发展。
ηX > 1
也就是说,外汇供给曲线是正常的,其条件是出口商品的汇率弹性要 大于1。因此,仅仅假定国外对出口商品的需求曲线是正常的,还不 足以保证外汇供给曲线是正常的。
汇率 r
汇率r
S (r ) 超额供给ES
re
汇率r
ED
ES
E
reE超额需求源自D D(r )reE
S (r )
S (r )
ED
D(r )
汇率均衡与稳定性 (1)
假定外汇供给完全是由出口产生的,而外汇 需求则完全是由进口产生的。
D(r ) = Pm M (r ) 1 S (r ) = PX X (r ) r
外汇市场均衡的条件
D (r ) = S (r ),
1 PX X (r ) rPm M (r ) = 0或 PX X (r ) Pm M (r ) = 0 r
外汇供求曲线的推导与 供求均衡的稳定性条件(1)
外汇供给曲线和外汇需求曲线的最大特点是其引伸性或间 接性。 外汇供给曲线是由国外市场对本国出口产品的需求曲线推 导出来的;而外汇需求曲线则是由国内市场对外国进口产 品的需求曲线推导出来的。换句话说,外汇交易者并不直 接需求和供给外汇,而是他们需要进口和出口商品的结果。 这样,即使我们假定,国外对本国出口产品的需求曲线和 国内对进口产品的需求曲线都是完全正常的(即服从需求 曲线向下倾斜的需求规律),也可能产生这样的结果,即 外汇供给曲线可能表现出不正常的行为(如背弓的供给曲 线、负斜率倾向的供给曲线,这些都与正常的供给曲线服 从正斜率倾向的供给规律相违背),甚至与外汇需求曲线 多次相交,产生多重均衡的结果。
汇率r
r1
顺差
S (r )
re
E
r2 O
D(r )
逆差
外汇FE
货币贬值的时滞效应及 弹性分析法的缺陷 (1)
货币贬值的时滞效应 按照弹性分析法,当一国存在国际收支逆差时,在自由浮 动汇率制下,本币的自动贬值将消除该国的国际收支逆差; 而在有管理的浮动汇率制下,官方对本币实施贬值有利于 消除该国的国际收支逆差。但在现实中,本币的贬值并不 能立即带来一国国际收支的改善,相反,在贬值的初期, 还会引起该国国际收支状况的进一步恶化,只有经过一段 时期之后,本币的贬值才会发生改善一国国际收支的作用。 也就是说,本币贬值之后,汇率对贸易量的调整存在着一 个时间上的滞后,这就是货币贬值的时滞效应,也称为 “J曲线效应”(J—Curve Effect)。
外汇供求曲线的推导与 供求均衡的稳定性条件(2)
如果,
dM ( r ) <0 dr
dD ( r ) <0 dr
即国内对进口商品的需求是正常的时候,我们有: 即外汇需求函数是正常的。 但是,要, dS (r ) (r
dr
必须假定:
>0
dX (r ) dr / 1 = η X 1 > 0, X (r ) r
px π= rp m
1 Px π= r Pm
马歇尔—勒纳条件 (1)
假定在其他条件不变的情况下,汇率变化是影响商品进出口流量的唯 一因素。这样,在出口商品的本币价格和进口商品的外币价格不变 价格不变时, 价格不变 汇率上升(本币贬值)就意味着国内市场上进口商品变得更贵,而在 国外市场上出口商品变得更便宜;相反,汇率下降(本币升值)则意 味着国内市场上进口商品变得更便宜,而在国外市场上出口商品则变 得更贵。 根据传统的需求理论,我们就可以断定,出口商品的国外需求的变动 与汇率的变动方向相同,即汇率上升(本币贬值)则出口商品的国外 需求增加,出口增加;汇率下降(本币升值)则出口商品的国外需求 下降,出口下降。同样,进口商品的国内需求的变动与汇率的变动方 向相反,即汇率上升(本币贬值)则进口商品的国内需求减少,进口 减少;汇率下降(本币升值)则进口商品的国内需求增加,进口增加。 但是,仅根据这些,我们还无法判断,汇率变化是否能产生平衡国际 收支的效果。国际收支是用货币表示的,进出口数量的变化能否刚好 产生所需要的货币收入和支出的变化,以满足实现国际收支平衡的要 求,取决于进出口商品需求的价格弹性 价格弹性。正是在这个意义上,我们把 价格弹性 分析汇率变化调节国际收支的方法,称为弹性分析法 弹性分析法(Elasticity 弹性分析法 Approach)。
马歇尔—勒纳条件 (3):关于弹性问题
关于弹性悲观 悲观主义(Elasticity Pessimism)和弹性乐观 乐观主 悲观 乐观 义(Elasticity Optimism)的争论 根据弹性悲观 悲观主义的观点,现实的进出口汇率弹性是很低 悲观 的,它们不足以满足临界弹性条件(Critical Elasticity Condition),因而汇率上升(本币贬值)不仅不能起到改 善国际收支的作用,相反会使国际收支恶化。 弹性乐观 乐观主义者则认为,现实的弹性足够能满足临界弹性 乐观 条件的要求,因此汇率上升(本币贬值)必定能起到改善 一国国际收支的作用。 大量的经验研究并不能使这个争论达成一致的观点。这并 不奇怪,因为在局部均衡的框架下估计进出口的汇率弹性 是难以得出准确结果的,要作出准确的弹性估计,必须在 整体经济范围内建立联立的计量经济模型,在一般均衡框 架下进行估计。
马歇尔—勒纳条件 (3):关于弹性问题
在马歇尔——勒纳条件中,我们所使用的是局部均衡 局部均衡情况下的弹性,即我们假 局部均衡 定其他条件不变,只考虑汇率变化对国际收支的影响。毫无疑问,在我们所作 假定与现实相符的条件下,我们的分析和结论是正确的。但一般来说,局部均 衡分析的假设条件是难以全部满足的。因而局部均衡分析的结果,是否为一般 均衡分析的一个好的近似结果,就需考察局部均衡分析的假设条件在多大程度 上是现实情况的一个近似反映,即局部均衡分析时所假定不变的因素,是否只 对我们分析的结论产生次要的、可以忽略的影响。 我们考察影响国际收支的因素时发现,直接影响国际收支的因素除了汇率变动 以外,还有国民收入和货币存量等等。国民收入的变化通过边际进口倾向 (Marginal Propensity to Import)影响国际收支;货币存量的变化则通过各种 方式(货币分析法和资产组合平衡分析讨论的那些影响方式)对国际收支产生 重要的影响。这些影响都是不能忽略的。而且,汇率上升(本币贬值)除了按 我们上面分析的情况影响国际收支以外,它还会对国内价格产生通货膨胀性质 的影响,从而按照购买力平价的作用,汇率上升和通货膨胀会产生恶性循环 (The Vicious Circle)等等。所有这些影响都是非常重要的,不应该被假定掉 (Assume Away)。 用总弹性 总弹性(Total Elasticity)来取代前面分析中使用的局部弹性(Partial 总弹性 Elasticity)。总弹性的意思是指,在我们计算弹性时,不仅要包括汇率变动对 进出口数量的直接的局部均衡影响,而且要考虑其他所有因素变化对进出口量 变动的间接影响之和。在实际中,我们可以通过观察汇率变动以后所引起的进 出口量的实际变化来计算给定的汇率变化的进出口汇率弹性。